| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | -6.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 32 | 48 | 0.00 | -23.42 |
| Season to Date | 89 | 96 | 0.00 | +10.02 |
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All plays are for 2 units
L.A. Angels +153 over BOSTON
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Joe Blanton has some very ugly surface stats which include a 1-9 record, a 5.53 ERA and a bloated 1.62 WHIP. Those numbers are grossly deceiving, which in turn creates a pretty sweet overlay. Blanton is the reason you buy skills and not stats. Over his last five starts, covering 30 innings, Blanton has walked 2 and struck out 30. He also has an outstanding 60% groundball rate over that span and a very low 16% line-drive rate. Joe Blanton has been frustrating his managers for years, as he's posted stellar skills in the past with not much to show for his efforts. Pitching for his third squad in since 2011, it appears MLB teams are growing tired of playing the waiting game but really, all Blanton needs is a shift of luck to excel because he has all the tools. He remains a risky investment because of his shaky past but if there was ever a time to take a leap of faith on him, it's now.[FONT=arial !important]
Ryan Dempster’s terrific start has been supercharged by fortunate hit and strand percentages. While Dempster's fastball velocity has dipped to 89 mph, his third straight year of fastball decline, he is using his splitter more to generate swings-and-misses and it’s working with 77 K’s in 70 innings so far. Dempster is still a consistent, low-upside workhorse, though age, injury and recent ERA/WHIP swings are becoming red flags. It’s also worth noting that current Angels hitters have 37 hits in 111 career AB’s against Dempster for a BA of .333 and 10 of those 37 hits left the yard. Overlay.
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COLORADO -1½ +118 over San Diego
[FONT=arial !important]T[FONT=arial !important]he Padres have really been battling hard this entire season and should remain one of the more profitable dogs the rest of the way. However, there is no defense or answer for Clayton Richard, one of the five worst starting pitchers in the majors. In 29 innings, Richard has 20/20 vision, meaning in 39 innings of work this season he has walked 20 and struck out 20. Prior to this year, Richard thrived at PETCO Park with a career 2.82 ERA at home in 45 starts but he was a product of that park. Since they moved the fences at Petco, he’s been exposed as the fraud that he is. He has a 1.81 WHIP in eight games started and that’s really all you need to know about this stiff. Clayton Richard can’t get out of trouble on his own and there will be plenty of trouble at Coors against the Rockies.[FONT=arial !important]
Juan Nicasio is coming on. He’s pitched in Cincinnati, San Francisco and at home twice in his last four games and not one pitch left the yard. Nicasio does an outstanding job of inducing grounders with a rate of 55% on the year. Nicasio has battled significant injuries the past two seasons and that shelf time has prevented him from making use of his 94 mph fastball. Nicasio also throws an above average change and slider that he’s beginning to trust and use more each outing. The total in this game is 11 and one has to figure that if it comes close to that number or goes over the majority of the runs will be charged to Clayton Richard.[/FONT]
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Houston +153 over KANSAS CITY
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]With a 4.97 ERA and 1.68 WHIP, Lucas Harrell won't get attention even from some savvy bettors. He's 28, and his skills with Houston have been far from attractive. That said, Harrell owns elite skills with the bases empty that include a 56% groundball rate. Harrell has given up five-plus runs four times already this season, but all four of those outings came against either the A's or Tigers. He’s had plenty of solid starts that include one run allowed in five or more innings against the Yankees, Angels twice, Texas, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. That’s seven games out of 13 that starts that Harrell has allowed one earned run. There's some serious profit potential here if he can piece together these skill flashes and if the Astros can give him some support. That could all come to pass here against Luis Mendoza.[FONT=arial !important]
Mendoza is pure fade material and in no way does he deserve to be this high a price with his lack of skills and pitching for the Royals. In nine games started covering 51 frames, Mendoza has one win, 34 K’s and 23 walks issued. He comes in with a 1.55 WHIP and at The K, Mendoza is 0-2 with a 8.05 ERA. Mendoza is exactly the type of pitcher you don’t want to lay significant juice with because his pure quality starts are few and far between. Most balls are hit hard off him and he’s at the mercy of his defense and good fortune to have a good game. The price here makes these feisty Astros worth a bet. [/FONT][/FONT]
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