Service Plays Thursday 6/13/13

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06/13/13 Prediction

Season
Straight Up: 855-405 (.679)
ATS: 670-622 (.519)
ATS Vary Units: 1668-1579 (.514)
Over/Under: 663-629 (.513)
Over/Under Vary Units: 920-849 (.520)

NBA Finals
Game #4
SAN ANTONIO 99, Miami 95

Does Spurs' Game 3 blowout guarantee NBA title?

If you like playing the odds - and you do or else you wouldn’t be reading this – you might as well cash out your crumbling 401k and put it all on the San Antonio Spurs to win the NBA Championship.

Well, maybe you shouldn’t risk your financial future on silly game but at least consider a small wager on the Spurs, who are now -160 favorites to win the NBA title after stomping the Miami Heat 113-77 in Game 3 of the NBA Finals Tuesday.

Over the past 36 NBA Finals with a series tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the title 30 out of 35 times. If that’s not enough of an eye-opener, since moving to the 2-3-2 finals format in 1985 there have been 13 series tied 1-1 after two games and the Game 3 victor has won 12 of those NBA Finals.

Oddsmakers have tagged the Spurs as 2-point home favorites in Game 4 Thursday. The Heat, who opened the series as -215 favorites, are now +130 underdogs with two more games to go in San Antonio.

The last time a team lost Game 3 and won the NBA title was 2011, when the Dallas Mavericks lost to Miami and it's "Big Three" in Game 3 of the finals but won three in a row to take the NBA Championship.

JACK JONES

20* MIAMI HEAT +1.5
NBA Jun 13 '13 (9:00p)
MIAMI GM4 vs SAN ANTONIO

20* Heat/Spurs Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +1.5

This is essentially a must-win situation for the Miami Heat. They realize they cannot afford to go down 3-1 if they want to win this series, so I look for them to give everything they have to get a victory in Game 4.

The Heat have been at their best when coming off a loss and needing a bounce-back win. In fact, you have to go all the way back to January 8th and 10th against Indian and Portland to find the last time that Miami has lost back-to-back games.

San Antonio simply caught fire in the second half and shot lights out in Game 3. In fact, the Spurs set an NBA Finals records with 16 made 3-pointers over their 32 attempts for a 50% clip. They aren't going to even come close to shooting that well again from distance.

Miami is 14-3 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more since 1996. The Heat are 15-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. Miami is a perfect 11-0 SU in its last 11 games following a loss dating back to January 10th. Now that's resiliency folks. This team can turn is on when it needs to. Bet the Heat in Game 4 Thursday.

The 2013 U.S. Open: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

Golf betting has hit the second major of the season as the 113th edition of the U.S. Open tees off this week from the East Course at Merion Golf Club in Ardmore, Pennsylvania.

This is the first trip for the U.S. Open to Merion since 1981 which is a big gap considering this is the 18th time it has hosted a USGA Championship. That means we can toss experience out of the equation right away, as no player has teed it up here in any sort of pro tournament, especially one this big.

Merion is not the typical U.S. Open course or any tour course for that matter. It sits just 6,996 yards in length and that’s stretching it out as far as possible. It’s just a Par 70, which means two less Par 5s are in the mix and while there are short yardage holes, Merion still has its share of length on some. Three of the four Par 3s are 236, 246 and 256 in yardage while four of the Par 4s are 464 yards or longer including the 18th hole which measures out at 521 yards.

The weather has been an issue leading up to the tournament and it will remain an issue going into Thursday. The area received a lot of rain over the past weekend and Monday was virtually a washout. The course does drain well but the chances of it getting hard and fast, which is what the USGA had hoped, will be next to impossible. The 11th and 12th holes are prone to flooding and if any more significant rain does come, there is talk about playing two holes on the West Course to open the round and skip No. 11 and No. 12 altogether.

Hopefully that won’t be the case but a wet course means more aggressive play. That brings a lot more players into the mix because the greens will be more receptive, which gives lower iron shots a greater chance of actually staying on the greens. With the fairways not allowing balls to roll out, it cuts down on distance but it also will help prevent balls rolling into the extremely dangerous rough in some cases. The putting surfaces will still be fast as estimates of around 12 on the Stimpmeter are expected.

While the thought is that the majors are dominated by the world's best players, that’s hardly been the case. Of the last 18 major tournaments, there have been 17 different winners with Rory McIlroy being the only two-time major winner in that span. As far as the U.S. Open, seven of the last eight winners hoisted the trophy for the first time, with Tiger Woods in 2008 being his third title. American players used to dominate but only three of the last nine winners have been from the United States.

The defending champion is Webb Simpson (+5,000) and, while he’s playing decent, he’s not been contending very often. His best finish is a solo second at the RBC Heritage and he has just two other Top 10s. History is not on his side as only one player has been able to defend his title since 1951 when Curtis Strange backed up his 1988 U.S. Open Championship at The Country Club with a win in 1989 at Oak Hill.

Graeme McDowell (+2,000) won the U.S. Open in 2010 at Pebble Beach and he backed that up with a T14 in 2011 and a T2 last year. He heads into this year's edition in good form with a matchplay win in Europe as well as a win here at the RBC Heritage. He’s not long off the tee but that’s not a requirement here and he makes up for that with incredible accuracy. He will be a threat again.

Phil Mickelson (+2,000) will be the first of two players that have come close to the championship but have yet to claim one. Lefty has been a runner-up at the U.S. Open a record five times and, while his T65 and T54 the last two years will lead people to think his time has passed, I am not one of those. He did miss the cut at THE PLAYERS but he has four Top-3 finishes, including a win in Phoenix and a T2 last week.

The second of the two U.S. Open bridesmaids is Lee Westwood (+2,500). In his last five U.S. Open starts, he has three Top 10s, including a T3 and a solo third. He can still be considered the best player without a major title even though some may think he is on his way down. It is hard to make that argument when he posted a T10, T8, T4 and a T8 in four straight tournaments before his WD at the Memorial two weeks ago.

Brandt Snedeker (+2,500) is on a lot of radar screens since he won the FedEx Cup last year and rightfully so. He opened the season with four Top 3s in his first five starts. An injury has slowed him down recently, but we can’t forget his T8 at THE PLAYERS. He has missed his last two cuts but Simpson came into last year’s U.S. Open the same way. He has finished T11, T8 and T9 in three of his last four U.S. Opens.

We will be going with two long shots this week, the first being Henrik Stenson (+7,500). After pretty much taking off the past three years, he’s playing some great golf with three Top 10s in seven medal-play made cuts including a T2 and a T5. He’s always played well at the U.S. Open and this year he’s ranked first in driving accuracy, third in greens in regulation and third in scrambling from the rough. Enough said.

Tim Clark (+8,500) will be the other long-shot pick this week as a non-firm course keeps him in play with the big boys. He has been all over the map this year with five missed cuts but he also has three Top 10s including a solo second at the Sony Open in Hawaii. In his last four U.S. Open made cuts, he has a T12, T40, T48 and a T17. So even in the faster conditions, his accuracy keeps him around.

Recommended tournament win six pack at the U.S. Open (all for one unit)

Graeme McDowell (+2,000)
Phil Mickelson (+2,000)
Lee Westwood (+2,500)
Brandt Snedeker (+2,500)
Henrik Stenson (+7,500)
Tim Clark (+8,500)

Seven helpful notes for seven U.S. Open prop bets

The second major of the golf calendar gets underway Thursday at Merion Golf Club in Ardmore, Pennsylvania.

A mix of conditions left by Tropical Storm Andrea and the short track at Merion could mean that we may see some uncharacteristically low scores in the U.S. Open.

With the possibility of some record setting scores in mind, here is a look at seven prop bets for the 2013 edition of the United States Open courtesy of the LVH..

WINNING SCORE:

OVER 270.5 -110
UNDER 270.5 -110

In 2011, Rory McIlroy recorded the lowest 72-hole score in the U.S. Open with 268. Nobody else in the history of the Open has shot less than 272 over four round.

WILL THERE BE A HOLE IN ONE?

YES +160
NO -180

There have been 39 holes-in-one throughout the history of the U.S. Open. There haven't been any aces at Merion Golf Club in the four times the event has been hosted there (1934, 1950, 1971, 1981).

WILL THERE BE A PLAYOFF?

YES +250
NO -300

The last time the U.S. Open went to a playoff was in 2008 when Tiger Woods won at Torrey Pines against Rocco Mediate. Two of the four times that Merion has hosted the event it has gone to a playoff (1971, 1950).

LOWEST COMPLETED ROUND SHOT BY: ANY GOLFER

OVER 64.5 +110
UNDER 64.5 -130

The lowest round in the history of the U.S. Open is a 63. Johnny Miller (1973), Jack Nicklaus (1980), Tom Weiskopf (1980) and Vijay Singh (2003) share the record.

FINISH POSITION BY: TIGER WOODS

OVER 8.5 -110
UNDER 8.5 -110

Tiger finished T21 at the 2012 U.S. Open. From 2007 to 2010, Woods has recorded a finish of T2, 1, T6, T4 respectively.

WILL SERGIO GARCIA MAKE THE CUT?

YES -300
NO +250

Sergio has missed the cut in the U.S. Open two times (2006, 2007). He was T38 in 2012.

1ST ROUND SCORE BY: WEBB SIMPSON

OVER 70.5 -110
UNDER 70.5 -110

Last year's champ Webb Simpson shot a two-over 72 in the opening round of the 2012 U.S. Open at the Olympic Club in San Francisco.

Here is a look at some tournament matchup odds courtesy of the LVH:

PHIL MICKELSON +220
TIGER WOODS -260

MATT KUCHAR +110
ADAM SCOTT -130

GRAEME McDOWELL -110
LEE WESTWOOD -110

JUSTIN ROSE -125
CHARL SCHWARTZEL +105

KEEGAN BRADLEY +105
LUKE DONALD -125

WEBB SIMPSON -125
BRANDT SNEDEKER +105

JIM FURYK -130
STEVE STRICKER +110

JASON DAY -110
DUSTIN JOHNSON -110

JASON DUFNER -120
HUNTER MAHAN EVEN

RICKIE FOWLER -110
BUBBA WATSON -110

BILL HAAS -125
ZACH JOHNSON +105

ERNIE ELS -135
MARTIN KAYMER +115

FREDDIE JACOBSON EVEN
HENRIK STENSON -120

K.J. CHOI EVEN
RYAN MOORE -120

GEORGE COETZEE -140
BRANDEN GRACE +120

U.S. Open action report: Surprise outright action and popular props
By JASON LOGAN

The 113th U.S. Open tees up at the East Course at Merion Golf Club in Ardmore, Pennsylvania this Thursday, marking the second major tournament on the 2013 PGA Tour schedule.

The majors always bring the most action to the sportsbooks, who go all out for these big events. Not only are most shops offering outright winner odds but a long list of props for the U.S. Open. We talk to sportsbooks online and in Las Vegas about the action on the outright futures as well as which props are the most popular heading into the tournament.

Check out Covers Expert Matt Fargo's preview and picks for the 2013 U.S. Open and find the best handicapping info on the web with our U.S. Open RebelMouse page.

Outright winner odds

Like most events featuring Tiger Woods on the marquee, the betting public has bet the No. 1 player in the world with both fists in the months heading into the U.S. Open.

Woods has fluctuated between +450 and his current price of +550 (Bet365.com) but can be had between +462 and +600 at most markets. According to Greg Sindall of SportsInteraction, “the public piles on Tiger as much or more than any team or competitor in any sport”. Most sportsbooks will come out in the red if Woods wins the 2013 U.S. Open.

“(Woods is) always a popular play when he’s playing well, and obviously so far this season he has been in good form,” Aron Black of Bet365.com told Covers. “He deserves place as the firm favorite. It’s not a terrible result if he wins, but action on him has been steady for last two to three months.”

Other golfers getting the majority of the outright money are Phil Mickelson (+2,000), Graeme McDowell (+2,200), Brandt Snedeker (+3,300), Dustin Johnson (+4,500), and Matt Kuchar, who has moved from +2,500 to +2,000 tying him with Mickelson for the second overall favorite on the board. Those players are also attracting a lot of action on "Each Way" odds, with bettors just needing them to finish among the Top 6 on the leaderboard.

Perhaps the biggest surprise for books is the action coming in on Justin Rose, who is currently priced at +2,500 to win the U.S. Open, and the lack of love for defending champion Webb Simpson (+5,500). The U.S. Open has had only one repeat winner in the past 51 year, with Curtis Strange winning in 1988 and 1989.

“No real major surprises for any betting on the outright, bar the faith that has been shown by a certain few heavy plays on Justin Rose to win outright,” says Black. “He’s basically our worst result. There are the usual steady plays on the bigger prices, but overall most of the action is on the Top 8 or 12 favorites in the betting.”

Popular props

The list of props for major tournaments gets longer and longer every year.

According to Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the LVH Superbook and renowned golf oddsmaker, sharp matchup money is siding with Luke Donald (-125) in his head-to-head battle with Keegan Bradley (+105) and is going against McDowell (-110) in his matchup with Lee Westwood (-110).

First-round three-ball betting is also getting a lot attention, specifically the group of Woods (+138), Rory McIlroy (+200) and Adam Scott (+200). Bettors can wager on who they think will have the best opening round of those three individual players.

“Given the most high profile grouping of Woods, McIlroy and Scott, it’s no surprise that we are seeing a lot of action on this one,” says Black. “Action is pretty balanced on it, but given the sometimes slow starting Woods, we are seeing a bit more on Rory and Scott combined.”

Another notable prop drawing one-sided action is the Hole-in-One prop, with the majority of wagers predicting an ace at some point in the four-day event. “Yes” there will be a Hole-in-One is seeing steady support at +150 while “No” is currently priced at -200. Merion is a short course compared to most major venues, with four Par 3s and two less Par 5s. The rain this past week could also help tee shots stick and not roll past the greens.

NBA Finals Game 4 odds set with Parker as probable

San Antonio Spurs point guard Tony Parker had an MRI on his injured right hamstring Wednesday which revealed "slight elongation", putting a big question mark next to his mobility for Thursday's Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

With 5:07 remaining in the third quarter of Tuesday's 113-77 Game 3 romp of the Miami Heat, Parker exited the game to have his hamstring looked at and did not return.

With Parker hopeful to play Thursday, oddsmakers mulled over Parker's value to the spread and what it could mean if the Spurs veteran guard was unable to play. Sportsbooks currently have the Spurs set as 1.5-point home favorites for Game 4.

"Parker is obviously a huge part of that offense," Steve Mikkelson, sportsbook manager at the Atlantis Reno, told Covers. "We have Spurs -1 on that game and that is based on him playing. If he doesn't play, we obviously switch favorites and this line goes to Heat -1.5 easily."

Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the LHV Superbook in Las Vegas could see an even bigger move if Parker doesn't play.

"If he didn't play I could see Heat -2, so I'd say he's worth 3.5 points (to the spread)," Sherman told Covers. "Since the top players' production is more prevalent in the playoffs, it is a bit more than the regular season, and that would apply to most superstars."

Parker notched six points, eight assists and two rebounds in 27 minutes of play in Game 3.

NBA betting: How Miami's "Big Three" fare as underdogs

The Miami Heat are 1.5-point underdogs for Game 4 of the NBA Finals after a crushing loss as 2.5-point road pups to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 3 Tuesday night.

The Heat haven't been dogs too often since 2010. In fact, since LeBron James and Chris Bosh joined Dwyane Wade in South Beach, Miami has been an underdog a total of just 33 times. In those 33 games, the Heat have posted a record of 16-15-2 ATS (against the spread) and 16-17 SU (straight up).

In the playoffs, they have been underdogs 11 times and have posted a combined record of 4-6-1 ATS and 4-7 SU.

Looking back at all three seasons with James, Bosh and Wade, this campaign has been the most successful ATS when Miami is the underdog. The Heat were dogs in seven regular season games and went 6-1 ATS. Game 3 marked the first time the Heat were underdogs in the 2013 playoffs.

Here is a look at their ATS record in the 33 games where they have been underdogs:

2010/2011 regular season: 6-4-1 ATS
2010/2011 postseason: 3-3-1 ATS

2011/2012 regular season: 0-4 ATS
2011/2012 postseason: 1-2 ATS

2012/2013 regular season: 6-1 ATS
2012/2013 postseason: 0-1 ATS

Heat at Spurs: What bettors need to know

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-1.5, 187)

Spurs lead best-of-seven series 2-1.

The status of San Antonio point guard Tony Parker is up in the air as the host Spurs attempt to take a 3-1 lead over the Miami Heat in Thursday’s Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Parker underwent an MRI exam on Wednesday and the results displayed a mild strain of his right hamstring and he’s listed as day to day. Miami attempts to rebound from a 113-77 loss that stands as the third-largest margin of defeat in Finals history.

Heat forward LeBron James is blaming himself for the 36-point loss after he scored under 20 points for the third consecutive game. He promises a much better effort in Game 4. “I take full responsibility for our team’s performance (Tuesday) night,” James said. “Me as a leader, I can’t afford to perform like I did and expect us to win on the road. It’s that simple. So I’m putting all the pressure on my chest, on my shoulders, to come through for our team. That’s the way it is.” San Antonio made an NBA Finals record 16 3-pointers on Tuesday and guard Danny Green is 16-for-23 from behind the arc in the series after making seven in Game 3.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE HEAT: James is averaging a pedestrian 16.7 points and making just 38.9 percent of his field-goal attempts. The Heat were outscored by 32 points with him on the floor in Game 3, an embarrassing fact for the four-time NBA MVP. James isn’t receiving much help from center Chris Bosh, who hasn’t scored more than 13 points in the series and is averaging just 9.3 points over the past seven games. Guard Dwyane Wade also is having an underwhelming series, averaging 14.3 points. Veteran swingman Mike Miller scored 15 points on 5-of-5 3-point shooting in Game 3 and has made eight straight 3-pointers over the past two games. He is 10-for-11 shooting in the series, including 9-of-10 from 3-point range.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Parker’s ailing hamstring created more playing time for reserve Gary Neal, who made six 3-pointers and scored 24 points in Game 3. Neal and Green combined for 51 points and San Antonio also received a superb game from forward Kawhi Leonard, who had 14 points, 12 rebounds and four steals. Leonard is averaging 11 points and 12 rebounds in the series and has excelled on the defensive end against James, frustrating the Miami star with his tenacious defense and long arms. “I’m studying my team concepts and just buying into our game plan,” Leonard said. “That’s all I’m doing – playing hard.” Leonard and power forward Tim Duncan both have grabbed 10 or more rebounds in all three games. Duncan is averaging 13.7 points and 13 rebounds.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 19-6 in Heat last 25 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
* Under is 22-6 in the last 28 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. San Antonio’s 113 points marked only the second time Miami allowed 100 or more points in 19 postseason games.

2. Heat G Mario Chalmers was scoreless in Game 3 after leading Miami with 19 points in its Game 2 win.

3. The Spurs are 26-for-52 from 3-point range over the past two games.

Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

A relatively quiet day around major league parks Thursday, but still an opportunity to look at a pair of streaking pitchers and a pair of slumping hurlers.

Streaking

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals (9-3, 2.34 ERA)

Wainwright is one of the best starters in the National League and has won his last four starts and five of his last six. He's involved in a marquee matchup Thursday afternoon as the Cards are in New York to face the Mets. Matt Harvey gets the ball for the Mets.

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies (7-2, 2.55 ERA)

The Phillies lefty has been on fire since early May and has recorded six wins in his last eight starts. His ERA over those last eight appearances is a sparkling 1.84.

Slumping

Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees (6-5, 2.84 ERA)

The Yankees started the season winning seven of Kuroda's first nine starts. Since then, they've lost his last four starts. Kuroda has an ERA of 5.23 in those starts.

Ervin Santana, Kansas City Royals (4-5, 2.99 ERA)

Santana started the season in stellar fashion, but he has slowed down recently. The Royals are 1-6 in his last seven starts and they have scored four or more runs in just two of those outings.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Orioles Wednesday.

Thursday it’s the A’s. The deficit is 621 sirignanos.

Watch the weather tomorrow for these two cities.

New York 1PM forecast calls for heavy rains throughout the entire day.
Baltimore - thunderstorms from 4PM through 9PM

Weather report from Intellicast.

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]San Francisco at Pittsburgh[/h] The Giants look to bounce back from yesterday's 12-8 loss and build on their 5-0 record in Matt Cain's last 5 starts after giving up 5 runs or more in their previous game. San Francisco is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]Today's NBA Picks[/h] [h=2]Miami at San Antonio[/h] The Heat look to bounce back from their Game 3 loss and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games when trailing in a playoff series. Miami is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2). Here are all of today's picks.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1045-781 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner Thurs Tampa Bay -135

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Thursday

Pass

Joe Wiz

Bonus Play Thursday Tampa/Kansas City Under 9