[h=1]Best bets at the U.S. Open[/h][h=3]Is Tiger Woods a good value at 9-2? Plus, value wagers and prop bets[/h]By Alf Musketa | ESPN Insider
Given the wet conditions at Merion, golfers and handicappers should benefit in some fashion this week at the U.S. Open. Long hitters will not have an advantage this week because, with soft greens, the entire field can hold the greens, fire at pins and putt aggressively. The rough is so thick throughout the golf course that, in my opinion, driving accuracy will be the key factor to winning. This isn't some revelation -- rough conditions at the Open are famously difficult. But it's notable this week, because Merion is quite short by recent standards, meaning we could see fewer drivers to begin with, even from players who aren't known for length off the tee.
Merion's East Course will play to a par 70 and a maximum of 6,996 yards, making it the shortest U.S. Open track in more than 15 years. The 11th hole is extremely vulnerable to flooding, and if it becomes unplayable Thursday, with more rain in the forecast, the tournament staff has prepared a couple of holes on the West Course just in case.
With all these peculiar conditions in mind, let's take a look at some of the best bets at the 113th U.S. Open.
Note: Odds courtesy of William Hill.US Sports Book, Las Vegas.
[h=3]Contenders[/h]
Tiger Woods (9-2)
Tiger recently finished 20 shots (T-65) behind the leader at the Memorial, his most recent stop on the PGA Tour. He struggled with the super-fast greens and didn't drive the ball well. Yes, he already has won four times this season, but of the 14 majors he's won, only two of them came on par-70 tracks. Obviously, his legendary domination of par-5s has something to do with that record.
<offer>However, I like Tiger to contend this week because he is the ultimate grinder. He never tanks a shot no matter how far out of it he is -- you saw it on Sunday at the Memorial -- and he has plenty of game for a U.S. Open that requires patience and mental fortitude. His new Sean Foley swing is improving, and he can now shape shots both ways. Then factor in preparation. Not only has he been on the property since last weekend, he also played practice rounds two weeks ago. It seems as if Tiger is taking this event very seriously.
If Tiger can putt well this week and make those key 8- to 10-footers for par, or if the rest of the field doesn't go low, he has a great shot to win. I think he'll bounce back well this week, although the price is a little short for me to consider him a value bet here. A top-five bet should also be a strong play.
Adam Scott (16-1)
After winning the Masters, Scott has seen what it takes to beat the best. He showed up to the Memorial merely for a tuneup to the U.S. Open and finished T-13. He has mentioned having a game plan to get in seven rounds of practice and wanting to know the course as well as a Merion member of 40 years. That will be difficult to achieve, but I like his determination to prepare for this event. Scott's best finish in a U.S. Open was last year (T-15), and I'm betting he'll progress past that mark this week and be in contention Sunday. A top-20 bet should be a strong play. </offer>
Steve Stricker (35-1)
Stricker has cut back his schedule, and it seems to be working -- he has three top-10 finishes in six starts. Stricker has made seven straight cuts at the U.S. Open, but I like his chances much more this year. Merion will set up well for Stricker with seven short par-4s that measure 411 or fewer yards, which means short clubs into the greens. If Stricker finds the fairways at a 65 percent mark or better, he has a good shot of winning with his deadly wedge game and exceptional puttking.
[h=3]Value bets[/h]
Rickie Fowler (60-1)
Not too many golf fans or handicappers are aware of Fowler's amateur career. He was a star in junior golf, leading the American Junior Golf Association standings, and was a stud in college at Oklahoma State. But perhaps the best result of his amateur days was being part of the winning United States Walker Cup team in 2009, an event that was held right here at Merion. Fowler led all players with a 4-0 match-play record. Also noteworthy is the fact that Merion sets up well for a draw. There are no fewer than eight holes that move right to left off the tee, which is Fowler's natural ball flight. His best finish in four U.S. Opens was a T-41 at the Olympic Golf Club in 2012, but I predict he'll fare much better than that this year and is an outside value shot at the title.
Matteo Manassero (65-1)
If length is not a prerequisite, Manassero will be in the hunt. Still very young at age 20, he already has four professional wins on the European Tour, including a win just three weeks ago at the prestigious BMW PGA Championship. He is playing the best golf of his career right now and has nine top-25 finishes in 13 starts. He has participated in and made the cut in both U.S. Opens the past two years. The key to this bet is that most sportsbooks are not that familiar with him, thus giving us a better price. He should be 40-1 or less.
[h=3]Matchups[/h]
Steve Stricker minus-145 over Jason Dufner
We've heard over and over that players might hit as many as nine wedges into the greens over 18 holes. Stricker has the reputation as being the best wedge player on tour, and -- having watched his entire career, counting his days on the Canadian Tour -- I agree. Dufner has had a poor year compared with last season, posting just one top-20 finish in his past 11 events. His scoring average at the U.S. Open is 74.05, and, in 20 rounds, he has never broken par; Stricker has a 72.42 average.
Zach Johnson minus-150 over Nick Watney
Johnson's fairways-and-greens game is tailor-made for a U.S. Open, plus he hits a nice draw off the tee, which should keep him out of the nasty rough this week. Recently, he had a third-place finish at Colonial and a T-19 at the Players Championship, two courses that demand accuracy. But this bet is a play against Watney, who was 15 over at the Memorial and missed the cut by a mile. This led his swing coach Butch Harmon to tweet that something was seriously wrong and perhaps he had an injury. Harmon has since sworn not to use Twitter again and has closed his account, and there is speculation that Watney has fired Harmon. Add up the distractions and the swing and Watney's game is unlikely to be 100 percent right now.
Jim Furyk minus-160 over Louis Oosthuizen
Oosthuizen withdrew before the fourth round of the HP Byron Nelson Championship with a neck injury. That was a month ago, and he has not teed it up since. Also, he and his wife are expecting their third child, due on Saturday. If Oosty plays and leaves in the middle of the golf tournament, the player who has played the most holes wins the bet. Furyk is from Lancaster, Pa., and hosts several charity events in the state. He is also one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball on tour, ranking fourth in that department. Last year at the U.S. Open, Furyk had the lead until the second-to-last hole.
Lee Westwood minus-120 over Luke Donald (first round)
A simple look at past U.S. Open results between these two players reveals that Donald struggles mightily in the first round. He missed the cut last year, then had a T-45, T-47, missed the cut again in '09 and '07, and withdrew in '08 at Torrey Pines. When the going gets tough, Donald has a tendancy to collapse; he withdrew with only four holes left in a U.S. Open after injuring his wrist in the rough, and the rough this week surely will remind him of that injury. Westwood was T-10, T-3 and T-6 in the past three U.S. Opens.
[h=3]Props[/h]
Winning score over/under 271.5
I have played the under -110. The total of 271.5 is minus (-8.5) under par. I think the winning score gets to double digits. Merion is a great golf course, short and tricky, but if it plays soft, it is defenseless.
Will they make the cut?
Billy Horschel Yes -175
This bet is a no-brainer. Horschel had the PGA Tour's best consecutive made-cut streak going at 23 starting last year at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. After winning the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in April, his first win on the tour, it was understandable to see Horschel suffer a letdown. Since then, he has back-to-back made cuts, and he was T-10 last week in Memphis.
Given the wet conditions at Merion, golfers and handicappers should benefit in some fashion this week at the U.S. Open. Long hitters will not have an advantage this week because, with soft greens, the entire field can hold the greens, fire at pins and putt aggressively. The rough is so thick throughout the golf course that, in my opinion, driving accuracy will be the key factor to winning. This isn't some revelation -- rough conditions at the Open are famously difficult. But it's notable this week, because Merion is quite short by recent standards, meaning we could see fewer drivers to begin with, even from players who aren't known for length off the tee.
Merion's East Course will play to a par 70 and a maximum of 6,996 yards, making it the shortest U.S. Open track in more than 15 years. The 11th hole is extremely vulnerable to flooding, and if it becomes unplayable Thursday, with more rain in the forecast, the tournament staff has prepared a couple of holes on the West Course just in case.
With all these peculiar conditions in mind, let's take a look at some of the best bets at the 113th U.S. Open.
Note: Odds courtesy of William Hill.US Sports Book, Las Vegas.
[h=3]Contenders[/h]
Tiger Woods (9-2)
Tiger recently finished 20 shots (T-65) behind the leader at the Memorial, his most recent stop on the PGA Tour. He struggled with the super-fast greens and didn't drive the ball well. Yes, he already has won four times this season, but of the 14 majors he's won, only two of them came on par-70 tracks. Obviously, his legendary domination of par-5s has something to do with that record.
<offer>However, I like Tiger to contend this week because he is the ultimate grinder. He never tanks a shot no matter how far out of it he is -- you saw it on Sunday at the Memorial -- and he has plenty of game for a U.S. Open that requires patience and mental fortitude. His new Sean Foley swing is improving, and he can now shape shots both ways. Then factor in preparation. Not only has he been on the property since last weekend, he also played practice rounds two weeks ago. It seems as if Tiger is taking this event very seriously.
If Tiger can putt well this week and make those key 8- to 10-footers for par, or if the rest of the field doesn't go low, he has a great shot to win. I think he'll bounce back well this week, although the price is a little short for me to consider him a value bet here. A top-five bet should also be a strong play.
Adam Scott (16-1)
After winning the Masters, Scott has seen what it takes to beat the best. He showed up to the Memorial merely for a tuneup to the U.S. Open and finished T-13. He has mentioned having a game plan to get in seven rounds of practice and wanting to know the course as well as a Merion member of 40 years. That will be difficult to achieve, but I like his determination to prepare for this event. Scott's best finish in a U.S. Open was last year (T-15), and I'm betting he'll progress past that mark this week and be in contention Sunday. A top-20 bet should be a strong play. </offer>
Steve Stricker (35-1)
Stricker has cut back his schedule, and it seems to be working -- he has three top-10 finishes in six starts. Stricker has made seven straight cuts at the U.S. Open, but I like his chances much more this year. Merion will set up well for Stricker with seven short par-4s that measure 411 or fewer yards, which means short clubs into the greens. If Stricker finds the fairways at a 65 percent mark or better, he has a good shot of winning with his deadly wedge game and exceptional puttking.
[h=3]Value bets[/h]
Rickie Fowler (60-1)
Not too many golf fans or handicappers are aware of Fowler's amateur career. He was a star in junior golf, leading the American Junior Golf Association standings, and was a stud in college at Oklahoma State. But perhaps the best result of his amateur days was being part of the winning United States Walker Cup team in 2009, an event that was held right here at Merion. Fowler led all players with a 4-0 match-play record. Also noteworthy is the fact that Merion sets up well for a draw. There are no fewer than eight holes that move right to left off the tee, which is Fowler's natural ball flight. His best finish in four U.S. Opens was a T-41 at the Olympic Golf Club in 2012, but I predict he'll fare much better than that this year and is an outside value shot at the title.
Matteo Manassero (65-1)
If length is not a prerequisite, Manassero will be in the hunt. Still very young at age 20, he already has four professional wins on the European Tour, including a win just three weeks ago at the prestigious BMW PGA Championship. He is playing the best golf of his career right now and has nine top-25 finishes in 13 starts. He has participated in and made the cut in both U.S. Opens the past two years. The key to this bet is that most sportsbooks are not that familiar with him, thus giving us a better price. He should be 40-1 or less.
[h=3]Matchups[/h]
Steve Stricker minus-145 over Jason Dufner
We've heard over and over that players might hit as many as nine wedges into the greens over 18 holes. Stricker has the reputation as being the best wedge player on tour, and -- having watched his entire career, counting his days on the Canadian Tour -- I agree. Dufner has had a poor year compared with last season, posting just one top-20 finish in his past 11 events. His scoring average at the U.S. Open is 74.05, and, in 20 rounds, he has never broken par; Stricker has a 72.42 average.
Zach Johnson minus-150 over Nick Watney
Johnson's fairways-and-greens game is tailor-made for a U.S. Open, plus he hits a nice draw off the tee, which should keep him out of the nasty rough this week. Recently, he had a third-place finish at Colonial and a T-19 at the Players Championship, two courses that demand accuracy. But this bet is a play against Watney, who was 15 over at the Memorial and missed the cut by a mile. This led his swing coach Butch Harmon to tweet that something was seriously wrong and perhaps he had an injury. Harmon has since sworn not to use Twitter again and has closed his account, and there is speculation that Watney has fired Harmon. Add up the distractions and the swing and Watney's game is unlikely to be 100 percent right now.
Jim Furyk minus-160 over Louis Oosthuizen
Oosthuizen withdrew before the fourth round of the HP Byron Nelson Championship with a neck injury. That was a month ago, and he has not teed it up since. Also, he and his wife are expecting their third child, due on Saturday. If Oosty plays and leaves in the middle of the golf tournament, the player who has played the most holes wins the bet. Furyk is from Lancaster, Pa., and hosts several charity events in the state. He is also one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball on tour, ranking fourth in that department. Last year at the U.S. Open, Furyk had the lead until the second-to-last hole.
Lee Westwood minus-120 over Luke Donald (first round)
A simple look at past U.S. Open results between these two players reveals that Donald struggles mightily in the first round. He missed the cut last year, then had a T-45, T-47, missed the cut again in '09 and '07, and withdrew in '08 at Torrey Pines. When the going gets tough, Donald has a tendancy to collapse; he withdrew with only four holes left in a U.S. Open after injuring his wrist in the rough, and the rough this week surely will remind him of that injury. Westwood was T-10, T-3 and T-6 in the past three U.S. Opens.
[h=3]Props[/h]
Winning score over/under 271.5
I have played the under -110. The total of 271.5 is minus (-8.5) under par. I think the winning score gets to double digits. Merion is a great golf course, short and tricky, but if it plays soft, it is defenseless.
Will they make the cut?
Billy Horschel Yes -175
This bet is a no-brainer. Horschel had the PGA Tour's best consecutive made-cut streak going at 23 starting last year at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. After winning the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in April, his first win on the tour, it was understandable to see Horschel suffer a letdown. Since then, he has back-to-back made cuts, and he was T-10 last week in Memphis.
