Service Plays Sunday 6/23/13

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GL!

NASCAR betting: Toyota/ Save Mart 350 preview

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series shifts to the road course at Sonoma Raceway this Sunday for the Toyota/ Save Mart 350.

Here is our betting preview:

Favorite: Marcos Ambrose (+500)

Ambrose has five starts at the road course and has finished in the top-10 in four of them. He has the second-fastest average green flag speed of 89.807 mph, the third-best driver rating (106.8) with an average running position of 10.9.

Live dog: Jeff Gordon (+1000)

Gordon leads all drivers with most wins (5), poles (5), top-5 finishes (12) and top-10s (16) at Sonoma. He has had a tough year to date, but this is his best chance to turn things around. Gordon has led more laps at Sonoma than any active driver (450).

Long shot: Greg Biffle (+3500)

Biffle is coming off a huge win at Michigan and has had success recently at Sonoma, logging four finishes of seventh or better at the track. He has momentum and good value Sunday.

Key stat: A driver has not won from the pole at Sonoma since Gordon did it in 2004.

Notable quotable:

“This is one of the hardest road courses I have raced on. It’s very technical and is pretty fast too. These cars are not made for this track, so you really need to wrestle them around a bit. I am not scared to do that but just need that little racing luck to get into victory lane. We’ve been so close that a win can’t be too far away.” Marcos Ambrose on Sonoma.

Odds to win the Toyota/Save Mart 350 courtesy of Bet365:

Marcos Ambrose +500
Tony Stewart +650
Juan Pablo Montoya +650
Kurt Busch +900
Jimmie Johnson +900
Jeff Gordon +1000
Kyle Busch +1000
Clint Bowyer +1200
Kevin Harvick +1200
Brad Keselowski +1600
Carl Edwards +1800
Kasey Kahne +2000
Jamie McMurray +2500
Boris Said +2800
Martin Truex Jr. +3300
Joey Logano +3300
Brian Vickers +3300
Jacques Villeneuve +3500
Greg Biffle +3500
Denny Hamlin +4000
Matt Kenseth +4000
Ryan Newman +5000
Dale Earnhardt Jr. +5000
Paul Menard +6600
Danica Patrick +8000

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Preview

After 15 weeks of running in circles with only left turns, the NASCAR Sprint Cup series right gets to turn right this week at Sonoma's 1.99-mile 10-turn road course, a track that highlights a drivers true ability to drive race cars. Because some drivers are less skilled at driving on road courses, there isn't as much excitement out them when they visit one of the two road circuits on the schedule.

It even gets so bad for a few of them that car owners hire a road specialist for a race to drive their cars. Although the hired guns have never won a Cup race before, they usually run well and take a car that would have been doomed to a 30th-place finish or worse into a respectable finish position. From a fans perspective, some of the greatest racing on the season occurs when watching these hired guns, with all kinds of skill on their playground, mix it up with the regulars.

From a betting perspective, you can narrow down the list of candidates to win at about 10 drivers, or just under 25 percent of the entire field. On a normal race weekend, there about 18 legitimate candidates, but the road course is the variable that really puts a major gap between those contenders.

The top candidate to win this week is Marcos Ambrose. Although he has never won at Sonoma, he has won the past two races at Watkins Glen. The two road courses are about as different as they can get with Sonoma being more technical featuring elevation changes while Watkins Glen runs much faster. Ambrose has finished eighth or better in his last four starts at Sonoma. His skills on the roads come from the Australia V8 Super Series, which is much tougher than anything he seen in NASCAR. To him, these races have become rather simple. His two road course wins are the only two wins he's had in NASCAR.

The same can be said for Juan Pablo Montoya, who has yet to win on any track other than a road course. He won at Sonoma in 2007 during his rookie season, and then won at Watkins Glen in 2010. Montoya's chances of winning become even stronger this week due to the upgrade in the entire program over the past two months. His skills on the road courses have never been questioned over his illustrious career. Not many drivers can say they have won the Monaco Grand Prix, especially those driving in NASCAR.

Because of their past excellence in other series, Ambrose and Montoya stand alone as the most technical road racers, but a few Cup drivers that have success on the ovals have also found the roads to be to their liking. Jeff Gordon is a five-time winner at Sonoma, which is the closest track located to his birth-place in Vallejo, CA. He hasn't won these since 2006, but hasn't finished worse than ninth in his last six starts there.

Tony Stewart took over the road racing crown from Gordon for a while between events at Sonoma and Watkins Glen, but he captured the last of his two Sonoma victories in 2005. He's been runner-up twice since then, including last year.

The most interesting choice this week is Kurt Busch because of how fast he's been everywhere this season. His outstanding practice times haven't translated into good finishes the past few weeks, but we should expect a great run on Sunday. He won at Sonoma while driving for Penske Racing in 2011, and then came in third last season while driving for his current underfunded No. 51 program. He's always been good at Sonoma and should be considered one of the favorites.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #42 Juan Pablo Montoya (12/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (7/1)
3) #9 Marcos Ambrose (4/1)
4) #78 Kurt Busch (10/1)
5) #14 Tony Stewart (7/1)

Roxxy

dream-1

Blue Jays win 10th straight, continue to pay off bettors

The Toronto Blue Jays have been the most profitable bet in the bigs over the past 10 games.

Any $100 bettor would be up $1,106.04 if they wagered on each game of Toronto’s current 10-game winning streak. The Blue Birds have outscored the opposition 57-22 during the run.

The Blue Jays have been underdogs six times during the streak, including +216 pups against Yu Darvish and the Texas Rangers on June 13.

Toronto (37-36) is now at one game above .500 and is back in contention in the AL wild-card hunt.

The Blue Jays are suggested -160 favorites in the final game of a three-game set with the Baltimore Orioles Sunday.

The Blue Jays opened the 2013 campaign with 12-1 odds to win the World Series, but fell to 100-1 at the LVH SuperBook on Monday. Online sportsbook Bet365 has boosted Toronto’s futures all the way up to +1200 as of Saturday.

Sunday Night Baseball: Rangers at Cardinals
By STEVE MERRIL

Interleague play takes center stage on Sunday Night Baseball as the Cardinals host the Rangers.

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-185, 7.5)

TEPID TEPESCH GOES FOR TEXAS

Nick Tepesch’s rookie season has been a little rough as the righty is 3-6 with a 4.84 ERA. He is in an awful stretch right now giving up 17 runs and 19 hits over his last three starts against Oakland, Cleveland, and Toronto. Tepesch has had three road starts where he has allowed two earned runs or less, but he’s also allowed four earned runs or more in three other starts. The Texas starter has shown good control walking just five batters in his last five starts.

WINS ARE WAINWRIGHT’S WAY

Adam Wainwright is 10-4 with a 2.37 ERA on the year for the Cardinals. He uncharacteristically gave up four runs last time out against the weak-hitting Cubs. Wainwright had previously allowed just three total earned runs over three starts. The righty made one previous interleague start this season giving up three runs and 12 hits in eight innings pitched against the Royals. Wainwright’s control has been impeccable, going walk-free in three of his last five starts. He didn’t walk anyone in his first four starts of the season.

INJURY REPORT

Both of these teams are dealing with injury problems. Right now, the Cardinals’ rotation is without Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, and John Gast. Garcia is done for the year after suffering a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder. Carpenter is dealing with a back ailment which is keeping him from returning after dealing with a nerve condition. Rafael Furcal and Jason Motte are done for the season due to Tommy John surgery.

Texas is missing a few pitchers as well. The rotation is without Alexi Ogando, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, and Neftali Feliz. Harrison and Feliz will be back around late-July or August. Joakim Soria is out of the Rangers' bullpen as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.

TRENDS

*Rangers are 36-16 in their last 52 Sunday games.
*The under is 4-1-1 in Tepesch’s last six starts.
*Cardinals are 21-8 in Wainwright’s last 29 starts.
*The over is 7-2 in the Cardinals’ last nine Sunday games.

HITTERS TO WATCH

Lance Berkman 7-for-27 vs. Wainwright
Geovany Soto 5-for-23 vs. Wainwright

No Cardinals have faced Tepesch

Wimbledon 2013: Men's betting preview

It's time to break out the white duds and save some room for some strawberries and cream as Wimbledon is finally upon us.

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic is the favorite to win the event at +110 and owns the 2011 Wimbledon championship title.

Roger Federer is the defending champion having defeated Andy Murray in four sets in 2012.

Here's a quick preview for Wimbledon which gets underway Monday, June 24.

(All odds courtesy of Bet365)

The favorites:

Novak Djokovic (+110): The top-seeded player in men's tennis is the fave and will look to rebound after a loss in the final in the French Open. Much like last year, however, Djoker is foregoing the opportunity to play in a grass-court warm-up tournament ahead of Wimbledon. He was ousted in the semifinal last year by Federer. The Serb is 33-5 on the year with three of those losses coming in clay-court tournaments.

Andy Murray (+333): Murray made a deep run to the final in 2012 before being defeated by Federer. The Scot has had a tough time during the clay-court season, going just 3-3 in three events. He had to skip the French Open due to a back injury, but will look to capture his second grand-slam event at the All England Club. Murray has been busy fine-tuning his grass game after posting a title victory in the Aegon Championship.

Rafael Nadal (+400): It isn't clay season any longer so Rafa is no sure thing, but he's still just about as good as it gets. The Spaniard was so dominant on clay that it's difficult to envision him losing another match. Rafa finished the clay season 38-2 and the winner of six titles. But he does not own such a sparkling resume on grass. He was upset in the second round last year by Lukáš Rosol. He does own two Wimbledon crowns (2008 and 2010) and has made the final three other times.

Roger Federer (+750): It is Wimbledon after all, so if Federer is playing, he's in the mix. The defending champion is going into the event having played some grass-court matches this season. Federer is coming off a title at the Gerry Weber Open in Halle, Germany and will give his all to please an adoring crowd in London.

The dark horse:

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+2500): To be successful at the All England Club, you must possess a booming first serve. Tsonga has that and then some. Not only can his first reach speeds up to 140 mph, but he ranks 10th in first serve points won (76 percent) and second in service games won (88 percent). He has reached the semifinal in 2012 and 2011 and reached the quarterfinal in 2010. Perhaps this is the year where he gets his Grand Slam title.

Next:

Grigor Dimitrov (+12500): Dubbed "Baby Federer", Dimitrov is a name on the tongues of many tennis experts. He was a junior champion at Wimbledon in 2008 and has reached the second round in back-to-back Wimbledon's on the senior circuit. The Bulgarian has yet to win a title on the men's tour but with plenty of fairy tales written on the grass courts of the All England Club, perhaps Dimitrov's time is now.

Wimbledon 2013: Women's betting preview

Odds on the ladies' draw are a bit more lop-sided as Serena is the favorite in England. The name Williams is synonymous with success at the All England Club. Either Serena or Venus has won 10 of the previous 13 Wimbledon championships and Serena is the defending champ.

Here's a look at some betting notes ahead of the ladies action.

Wimbledon begins Monday, June 24.

(Odds courtesy of Bet365)

The favorite:

Serena Williams (+100): Is there a more dominant force in tennis? 23-0 on clay. 21-3 on hardcourts. It doesn't seem to matter the surface, Serena just wins. She is the overwhelming favorite heading into Wimbledon and deservedly so. She's stroked her way to 31 straight victories on the ladies' tour and has won three of the last four Wimbly championships.

Almost there:

Petra Kvitova (+1000): The 2011 Wimbledon champion has the talent to compete for the championship, but she has had a very up-and-down year in 2013. The Czech is 28-14 overall and is coming off a very underwhelming clay-court season where she went 11-6. Kvitova only reached the second round of the Aussie Open and the third round of the French Open, but will look to turn her game around on the more comfortable grass courts of the All England Club.

Perhaps...

Li Na (+1400): She has the game to compete and has reached the final of the Aussie Open already this year, but she went through a terrible spell during the clay season going just 5-4. Na has reached three finals this year and at 31 years of age, her window is closing.

If you're daring:

Sloane Stephens (+3300): Some good showings in the Grand Slam events this season with a semifinal in the Aussie and a fourth-round appearance in the French. Sloane has definitely peaked in the big tourneys this year, as she has been bounced early from events in Madrid, Charleston, Indian Wells and Dubai. She has talent and perhaps Wimbledon is where she polishes her game and takes the next step.

Confederations Cup betting: Day 7 preview

The dust will settle on Group B Sunday as the four nations will play their final matches. Spain will play Nigeria and Uruguay will look to bag a bucketload of goals against Tahiti.

Uruguay v Tahiti (-50000, +6600, +150000)

Site: Recife

Uruguay currently sits third in the group and is behind Nigeria on goal differential. So, they will more than likely release the hounds against the Tahitians and go for double-digit goals in this one. La Celeste will probably go with a three-pronged attack with Luis Suarez, Edinson Cavani and Diego Forlan up front. This is as perfect a goalscoring triumverate as you could want and they will no doubt keep the scoreboard operator busy. Tahiti has been outscored 16-1 in its two matches but they will play their hardest and look for an upset against the South Americans.

Uruguay and Tahiti have never played a competitive football match.

* Uruguay forward Diego Forlan scored the winning goal against Nigeria on Thursday.
* Tahiti has a higher pass completion rate (77.5 percent) than Uruguay (75.4 percent).


Nigeria v Spain (+1100, +500, -400)

Site: Fortaleza

A tough loss against Uruguay has Nigeria depending on one of two miracles. Basically, they must beat Spain or Tahiti must orchestrate the upset of the millennium and defeat Uruguay in the other Group B match. The Super Eagles have played reasonably well thus far and they should be able to compete with the Spanish. Spain, though not exactly mathematically through just yet, will look to continue its excellent form and extend its unbeaten streak to 25 games. A draw will clinch the top spot in Group B and a date with the loser of the Italy/Brazil match Saturday.

Nigeria has history on its side. The last time the squads met was at the 1998 World Cup with Nigeria securing a 3-2 victory.

* Fernando Torres bagged four goals in Spain's 10-0 romp over Tahiti and now leads all goalscorers.
* Nigeria are the second-best passing side in the tournament completing 88.1 percent of its passes.

Wainwright Seeks 11th Win Sunday vs. Rangers

First pitch: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-185, 7.5)

The Rangers will finish their series against the MLB-leading Cardinals on Sunday night with a pitching mismatch of Nick Tepesch and Adam Wainwright on the mound.

Texas has gone through a rough patch in June, losing six consecutive games at one point, but enter this series having won three of their past four contests. The Cardinals have also won three of their past four games. Wainwright (10-4, 2.37 ERA) is in the midst of another great season with the Cardinals winning five of his past six starts, a span in which he has given up more than three runs just once. The Rangers have struggled behind Tepesch (3-6, 4.84 ERA), winning his last start in an 8-7 slugfest, but losing five in a row before that, never scoring more than three runs for him during that stretch. These two teams enter the series having played just seven games against each other in the past three years, with the Cardinals owning a 4-3 record overall and 3-1 mark at home. Overall, the Cardinals enter Friday with a 22-13 record (.629, 7th-best in majors) at Busch Stadium this season while the Rangers are 19-17 (.528, 5th-best in majors) on the road.

Tepesch (1.32 WHIP) has struggled mightily lately. He’s 0-2 in his past three starts, giving up 17 earned runs in 15.2 innings. Although he’s given up just 18 walks in 70.2 innings this year, batters have figured him out with 75 hits and a .269 BA. The 24-year-old rookie, who has never started against the Cardinals in his career, is averaging just 5.4 innings per start, but is supported by a bullpen that is 14-7 on the season with a 3.30 ERA, 10th-best in MLB. Facing the Cardinals isn’t easy, though. St. Louis ranks in the top three in MLB in runs (365, 2nd), BA (.277, 2nd) and OBP (.337, 3rd). Veteran RF Carlos Beltran leads the offense with 17 home runs, 1B Allen Craig has a team-high 55 RBI, LF Matt Holliday has a team-best 55 runs, while C Yadier Molina owns an impressive .366 BA, the highest mark in the majors.

Wainwright has been a workhorse this season, averaging 7.3 innings per start. He’s thrown three complete games and two shutouts. In 110 innings of work, he has 100 strikeouts with only nine walks and 102 hits (.248 opponents' BA), showing an impeccable degree of control (11.1 K-to-BB ratio). It's certainly a rare feat to have more wins (10) than walks (nine) at this point in the season. He has given up only four home runs compared to nine for Tepesch. Wainwright has never pitched against the Rangers in his career, and he’ll be charged with containing a Texas lineup that is fourth in the majors with a .427 slugging percentage, entering Friday. The Rangers offense has been led by 3B Adrian Beltre, who has a team-best .304 BA, adding 14 home runs and 39 RBI. OF Nelson Cruz has also raked, leading the team in both homers (18) and RBI (50). Going deep into games is important for Wainwright, knowing the Cardinals bullpen has a 4.01 ERA and 1.32 WHIP (20th in majors in both), and 6-9 record this season.

NASCAR Tackles Sonoma Road Course Sunday
By: Brian Graham

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Toyota-Save Mart 350

Sunday, June 23 – 2:00 p.m. EDT
Sonoma – Sonoma, CA
The NASCAR drivers take to the road, literally, Sunday when they tackle Sonoma’s road course on Sunday for the Toyota-Save Mart 350. The course was originally constructed in 1968 as a 2.52-mile course, but was re-designed in 1998 to the current 1.99 miles, increasing the distance of the event to its current 218.9 miles covering 110 laps. The course has 10 turns with varying elevation changes. Turn 3a reaches 174 feet, while Turn 10 is the lowest elevation at a mere 14 feet. Since 1998, Jeff Gordon has five wins on this track (1998-2000, 2004 and 2006), while Tony Stewart is the only other driver with multiple wins in this 14-race span, taking the checkered flag in 2001 and 2005. Clint Bowyer is the defending champion.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds
Marcos Ambrose 5-to-1
Tony Stewart 7-to-1
Jimmie Johnson 7-to-1
Jeff Gordon 7-to-1
Kyle Busch 10-to-1
Juan Montoya 10-to-1
Clint Bowyer 10-to-1
Kevin Harvick 10-to-1
Kurt Busch 10-to-1
Brad Keselowski 15-to-1
Kasey Kahne 20-to-1
Carl Edwards 30-to-1
Matt Kenseth 30-to-1
Joey Logano 30-to-1
Denny Hamlin 30-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 30-to-1
Jamie McMurray 40-to-1
Greg Biffle 40-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 50-to-1
Ryan Newman 60-to-1
Jacques Villeneuve 60-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 60-to-1
Brian Vickers 60-to-1
Ron Fellows 60-to-1
Jeff Burton 100-to-1
Paul Menard 100-to-1
Danica Patrick 100-to-1
Aric Almirola 100-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-to-1
Casey Mears 300-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Jeff Gordon (7/1) - Winning at Sonoma is all about experience, and Gordon certainly has that with five wins, 12 top-5’s and an average finish of 8.6 in 20 all-time starts at this track. Although he hasn’t won this road course since 2006, he continues to run with the front of the pack with finishes of 7th, 3rd, 9th, 5th and 2nd and 6th in the past six races here. And although Gordon has been unlucky during the 2013 season with three crashes and a suspension issue, he's finished no worse than 13th in the past eight races that he's been able to complete. This includes a trio of third-place showings, including two of the past five starts (Darlington and Dover). The odds aren’t great, but there’s no shame in making your wager grow seven times larger. If you’re betting on just one driver this weekend, choose No. 24.

Clint Bowyer (10/1) - The defending champion at this track has placed fourth or better in three of the past four road-course races. In 2011, he placed 4th at Sonoma and 11th at Watkins Glen. In 2012, he won at Sonoma and finished 4th at Watkins Glen. In his past six starts at this particular road course, Bowyer has racked up four top-4 finishes. And he continues to climb steadily up the points standings this season, holding steady in third place thanks to an impressive 10-start span in which he has a 8.9 average finish with six top-8's. His odds aren't anything to get excited about, but Bowyer still warrants a sizable wager on Sunday.

Greg Biffle (40/1) - We've recommended Biffle as one of the handful of drivers to wager on in the past two races, and he responded by finishing second at Pocono and then winning at Michigan last week with 12-to-1 odds. Sunday's odds are quite a bit longer based on his pedestrian 14.9 career average at Sonoma. However, he's finished seventh or better in four of his past seven starts at this course, including a 7th-place showing last year. And in the most recent road course, Watkins Glen in 2012, Biffle churned out a sixth-place finish. Keep riding the hot driver and lay a small wager on Biffle this weekend.

Kasey Kahne (20/1) - He has been tremendous in qualifying at Sonoma, starting no worse than 8th (including two poles) in six of his past seven starts at this track. And in two of the past four races here, he has capitalized on his envious starting position, winning the race in 2009 and finishing fourth in 2010. Although Kahne has posted poor finishes in his past two races this season (36th at Pocono and 35th at Michigan because of a crash), don’t forget his impressive four top-two finishes this season. At 20-to-1, this darkhorse presents excellent value.

Brian Vickers (60/1) - Our longshot of the weekend has to go to Vickers, who is hopping back into the seat of Mark Martin's No. 55 car for this race. In last year's Sonoma race, Vickers finished fourth, but couldn't build upon that at Watkins Glen because he lost his engine on Lap 1. He also won the pole at Sonoma in 2009. In five races this season, Vickers has either started or finished in the top-8 four times, with the one exception being Kansas. In his most recent start in Richmond, he earned the No. 2 starting spot, but crashed during the race. If you're feeling lucky, put down a one-unit wager on Vickers.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Cubs Saturday.

Sunday it’s the Cubs. The deficit is 783 sirignanos.

roxxy

dream-1

LA Syndicate Sunday Top Plays coming off a 4-1
Saturday with Game of the Month Yankees a Winner

Mets -129
Indians/Twins Over 9
Tigers -173
Angels/Pirates Over 8.5

Chicago Syndicate Top Plays Sunday Coming off nice
winner NHL Playoff Game of the Year on the Blackhawks...

Mets -129
Braves -120
Tigers -173
Cubs/Astros Under 10.5
Cardinals/Rangers Over 7.5

Dannyb

atl braves