| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
| Last 30 Days | 35 | 46 | 0.00 | -10.52 |
| Season to Date | 103 | 115 | 0.00 | +6.00 |
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All bets are for 2 units
Miami +146 over SAN FRANCISCO[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Tim Lincecum is high on our fade list because his skills are going from bad to worse and it’s not suddenly either. Lincecum had an ugly 2012 and was even relegated to bullpen duty last year for a stretch. The Giants had hoped it was just a slump that he would get through but it’s not. It’s what we call “dead arm syndrome”. In Lincecum’s last start against Atlanta, he walked five batters while striking out just three in six innings. Over his last five starts, Lincecum has walked 14 batters over 29 frames and his WHIP has climbed over the dreaded 1.50 mark to 1.52. His fastball velocity is decreasing with every passing month and it now barely cracks 90 MPH. Combine that with Lincecum’s lack of movement on all of his pitches (he’s shown the least aggregate movement on his pitches in 2013 among NL SP), and it makes him very hittable indeed. Lincecum is being priced in the same range as #2 and #3 starters when in fact, he’s now barely a #5 starter and if the Giants had more healthy bodies he would be back in the pen, which is where he will end up before this season is over. Tim Lincecum has lost it.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Ricky Nolasco is coming on with six outstanding efforts in his last eight games started. Over that eight game stretch he’s only been taken yard three times and has allowed just one earned run in four of those eight games. Nolasco’s velocity has increased from April to now and his swinging strike rate surged from 5.4% to 11.9%. His current 3.61 ERA is fully supported by his 3.72 xERA. The Marlins are also playing much better. The Fish took the opener last night, they’ve now won 10 of their past 19 games and they figure to do at least some damage against Lincecum. We get the much better pitcher in five innings with a big tag and regardless of outcome, that’s rarely a bad choice. [/FONT]
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Minnesota +112 over CLEVELAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Scott Kazmir was a high risk/high reward experiment for the Indians and while he’s looked good at times, there are too many negative, glaring issues in his skill set to trust. Kazmir has been taken yard five times over his last 14.2 innings. He’s also walked eight batters over that stretch and the Indians have lost four of his last five starts including the last three. Kazmir’s line-drive rate over his last five starts is 33%, suggesting he’s fooling nobody. He also has the same 33% fly-ball and groundball rates over that span. The Twins are above .500 against lefties and they’re also swinging some pretty hot bats right now with 22 runs scored over their past three games, all wins at pitcher friendly Target Field. Over its last five games, Minnesota is hitting .324 with nine jacks and 30 runs scored. That’s tops in the majors in all three of those categories. The Twinkies have a great chance to do more damage against a fragile Scott Kazmir.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
On May 24, Sam Deduno opened his season against Detroit with six runs allowed in five innings before getting the hook. In four starts since then, Deduno has allowed two runs or fewer in each. Deduno is a bit wild but he has some of the nastiest nasty stuff in the business. Hitters never seem to be quite comfortable in the box against him either because of his propensity to throw inside. He does walk too many but he’s usually able to pitch out of it because of his elite 62% groundball rate. Deduno comes in with a skills supported 3.26 ERA and if he can cut down on his walks, he could join the ranks of the elite. The Twins bullpen has been outstanding this year with the second best ERA in the majors at 2.84 while the Indians pen is one of the worst with an ERA of 4.42. Cleveland’s imploding pen has 11 saves and 11 blown saves. Now we get a tag on the hottest hitting club in the majors with the better starter and better bullpen. Yeah, that works. [/FONT]
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Pittsburgh +148 over L.A. ANGELS
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Jared Weaver was a 20-game winner a season ago and while that was going on, we may have been the only outfit anywhere calling this guy a fluke. We’ve mentioned it again this season and our observations have merit. Weavers’s strikeout rate dipped further last season and his command followed (especially in 2H) in which he struck out 6+ batters in five of first six starts, but struck out that many just four more times all year. Weaver’s surface stats the last two years were greatly aided by fortunate hit and strand rate percentages. This season those have normalized, thus the 4.41 ERA. Weaver has done his best to hold off a swift erosion, but he might not be able to avoid it now. His average fastball velocity during the last three seasons: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8 mph. His fastball averaged a soft-tosser-like 87.5 mph in the 2H of 2012. His swinging strike rate during the last three years is also ominous: 11.2%, 9.1%, 8.5%. He has been able to rely on an effective pitch mix and deceptive arm angles to keep hitters from making hard contact, but his margin for error is razor thin now. Weaver’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate this year of 32%/21%/47% is right in line with his ugly career rates. Weaver’s misleading and lucky W/L totals (38-13) over the past two years make him one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game. [/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Gerrit Cole is 2-0 since his call-up from the minors and that’s with an unlucky and low 64% strand rate. Cole was the first overall pick of the 2011 draft out of UCLA, and progressed three levels during 2012, reaching Triple-A Indianapolis by the end of his first full professional season. Cole is #4 on the top prospect list and the top-rated Pirates prospect. This high-ceiling righty with ace potential has a plus-plus fastball, a plus power slider and a good change-up. He will also mix in a curveball occasionally, but rarely needs it with his other offerings. Cole’s fastball is thrown in the 92-96 range and can top out at 100 mph with good movement. Cole can reach back and dial up the velocity late into games. His slider can be thrown anywhere between 81-90 mph in or off the plate, and his ability to throw at different speeds makes the plus pitch even harder to hit. His 2.91 ERA at Triple AAA this season takes into account one poor outing where he surrendered 8 ER and 3 of his 4 HR on the season. Cole throws from 3/4 arm slot, repeats mechanics well from the windup and the majority of the time out of the stretch. The two areas of concern are iffy command at times (particularly out of the stretch) and leaving pitches up in the zone too often. Both of those items can be overcome with his raw stuff. Cole has good makeup on the mound and goes right after hitters, working both sides of the plate. Cole has shown an uncharacteristically low strikeout rate this season, which may be attributed to a concerted effort to gain efficiency with pitch count before his call-up but the quality of each pitch offering is still there. Lots of upside here matched with consistent performance throughout college and 200 minor league innings. Oh, and he pitches for a very good team. Overlay.
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Miami +146 over SAN FRANCISCO[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Tim Lincecum is high on our fade list because his skills are going from bad to worse and it’s not suddenly either. Lincecum had an ugly 2012 and was even relegated to bullpen duty last year for a stretch. The Giants had hoped it was just a slump that he would get through but it’s not. It’s what we call “dead arm syndrome”. In Lincecum’s last start against Atlanta, he walked five batters while striking out just three in six innings. Over his last five starts, Lincecum has walked 14 batters over 29 frames and his WHIP has climbed over the dreaded 1.50 mark to 1.52. His fastball velocity is decreasing with every passing month and it now barely cracks 90 MPH. Combine that with Lincecum’s lack of movement on all of his pitches (he’s shown the least aggregate movement on his pitches in 2013 among NL SP), and it makes him very hittable indeed. Lincecum is being priced in the same range as #2 and #3 starters when in fact, he’s now barely a #5 starter and if the Giants had more healthy bodies he would be back in the pen, which is where he will end up before this season is over. Tim Lincecum has lost it.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Ricky Nolasco is coming on with six outstanding efforts in his last eight games started. Over that eight game stretch he’s only been taken yard three times and has allowed just one earned run in four of those eight games. Nolasco’s velocity has increased from April to now and his swinging strike rate surged from 5.4% to 11.9%. His current 3.61 ERA is fully supported by his 3.72 xERA. The Marlins are also playing much better. The Fish took the opener last night, they’ve now won 10 of their past 19 games and they figure to do at least some damage against Lincecum. We get the much better pitcher in five innings with a big tag and regardless of outcome, that’s rarely a bad choice. [/FONT]
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Minnesota +112 over CLEVELAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Scott Kazmir was a high risk/high reward experiment for the Indians and while he’s looked good at times, there are too many negative, glaring issues in his skill set to trust. Kazmir has been taken yard five times over his last 14.2 innings. He’s also walked eight batters over that stretch and the Indians have lost four of his last five starts including the last three. Kazmir’s line-drive rate over his last five starts is 33%, suggesting he’s fooling nobody. He also has the same 33% fly-ball and groundball rates over that span. The Twins are above .500 against lefties and they’re also swinging some pretty hot bats right now with 22 runs scored over their past three games, all wins at pitcher friendly Target Field. Over its last five games, Minnesota is hitting .324 with nine jacks and 30 runs scored. That’s tops in the majors in all three of those categories. The Twinkies have a great chance to do more damage against a fragile Scott Kazmir.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
On May 24, Sam Deduno opened his season against Detroit with six runs allowed in five innings before getting the hook. In four starts since then, Deduno has allowed two runs or fewer in each. Deduno is a bit wild but he has some of the nastiest nasty stuff in the business. Hitters never seem to be quite comfortable in the box against him either because of his propensity to throw inside. He does walk too many but he’s usually able to pitch out of it because of his elite 62% groundball rate. Deduno comes in with a skills supported 3.26 ERA and if he can cut down on his walks, he could join the ranks of the elite. The Twins bullpen has been outstanding this year with the second best ERA in the majors at 2.84 while the Indians pen is one of the worst with an ERA of 4.42. Cleveland’s imploding pen has 11 saves and 11 blown saves. Now we get a tag on the hottest hitting club in the majors with the better starter and better bullpen. Yeah, that works. [/FONT]
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Pittsburgh +148 over L.A. ANGELS
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Jared Weaver was a 20-game winner a season ago and while that was going on, we may have been the only outfit anywhere calling this guy a fluke. We’ve mentioned it again this season and our observations have merit. Weavers’s strikeout rate dipped further last season and his command followed (especially in 2H) in which he struck out 6+ batters in five of first six starts, but struck out that many just four more times all year. Weaver’s surface stats the last two years were greatly aided by fortunate hit and strand rate percentages. This season those have normalized, thus the 4.41 ERA. Weaver has done his best to hold off a swift erosion, but he might not be able to avoid it now. His average fastball velocity during the last three seasons: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8 mph. His fastball averaged a soft-tosser-like 87.5 mph in the 2H of 2012. His swinging strike rate during the last three years is also ominous: 11.2%, 9.1%, 8.5%. He has been able to rely on an effective pitch mix and deceptive arm angles to keep hitters from making hard contact, but his margin for error is razor thin now. Weaver’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate this year of 32%/21%/47% is right in line with his ugly career rates. Weaver’s misleading and lucky W/L totals (38-13) over the past two years make him one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game. [/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Gerrit Cole is 2-0 since his call-up from the minors and that’s with an unlucky and low 64% strand rate. Cole was the first overall pick of the 2011 draft out of UCLA, and progressed three levels during 2012, reaching Triple-A Indianapolis by the end of his first full professional season. Cole is #4 on the top prospect list and the top-rated Pirates prospect. This high-ceiling righty with ace potential has a plus-plus fastball, a plus power slider and a good change-up. He will also mix in a curveball occasionally, but rarely needs it with his other offerings. Cole’s fastball is thrown in the 92-96 range and can top out at 100 mph with good movement. Cole can reach back and dial up the velocity late into games. His slider can be thrown anywhere between 81-90 mph in or off the plate, and his ability to throw at different speeds makes the plus pitch even harder to hit. His 2.91 ERA at Triple AAA this season takes into account one poor outing where he surrendered 8 ER and 3 of his 4 HR on the season. Cole throws from 3/4 arm slot, repeats mechanics well from the windup and the majority of the time out of the stretch. The two areas of concern are iffy command at times (particularly out of the stretch) and leaving pitches up in the zone too often. Both of those items can be overcome with his raw stuff. Cole has good makeup on the mound and goes right after hitters, working both sides of the plate. Cole has shown an uncharacteristically low strikeout rate this season, which may be attributed to a concerted effort to gain efficiency with pitch count before his call-up but the quality of each pitch offering is still there. Lots of upside here matched with consistent performance throughout college and 200 minor league innings. Oh, and he pitches for a very good team. Overlay.
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