| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +3.88 |
| Last 30 Days | 36 | 45 | 0.00 | -5.28 |
| Season to Date | 105 | 116 | 0.00 | +9.88 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
All Plays are 2 units
Miami +137 over SAN FRANCISCO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Marlins have now won 11 of their past 20 games. They came in here and won the first two games of this four-game set and today they get their biggest advantage on the hill of the three games so far with Jacob Turner opposing Barry Zito. Zito’s skills continue to be one of the worst among starters in all of baseball and that includes Triple AAA as well. Any success he's had is strictly a product of this park and pure luck. Zito is still walking too many hitters and striking out few. His 4.67 ERA is flattering when you consider he has a 1.59 WHIP, a 29% line-drive rate and a fly-ball bias profile. Most pitchers that have some success at this level have at least one go-to pitch that they utilize when they’re in trouble but Zito doesn’t have any pitch to go to. All of his offerings are well below average and he’s proven over and over that he can’t get out of trouble on his own. If this were a playoff game or a close pennant race in late August or September, the Giants would not have this guy anywhere near the mound. The Giants are sending him out there every fifth day because they have to pay him 20M this year and they’re not about to sit a guy that they have to cut a check to every week for $384,000. Unfortunately for Zito, this is an afternoon game that goes off at 1:05 PM in San Fran and AT&T Park is a much better place for hitter’s during the day because that damp nighttime air is not present. Zito gets credit for pitching every fifth day and winning some games but that doesn’t mean he’s worthy of backing. The metrics tell us just the opposite.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jacob Turner is a guy to keep your eye on. He’s pitching behind the shadows of Jose Fernandez and with just four starts after being called up, he’s also well under the radar. In those four starts, Turner has yet to lose. With some run support, he could easily be 4-0. Turner has allowed three earned runs or less in all of his starts. Jacob Turner comes in with a 2.18 ERA and a skills supported 3.44 xERA. In 2011, this kid was a top prospect in the Tigers organization, who was virtually unhittable in the minors when he was on his game. He has pedigree and upside and he’s just 21 years old. This is the player that the Marlins received for Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante last July and the Fish did their homework. Turner had an elite groundball rate in the minors and he’s carried it over to this level. After four starts, Turner’s GB rate is 56%. He exhibits well above average control of an 89-98 mph fastball with late sink and a sharp-breaking curveball. Turner is a forgotten man because he’s had some setbacks since being a first round pick (9th overall) in 2009 but he has all the tools to be a front-line starter for years. Momentum, price and a huge pitching edge for the visitor make this choice an easy one for us.[/FONT]
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N.Y. Mets +107 over PHILADELPHIA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Phillies 19 day games are the fewest in the majors and they’ve won just seven of them. Jonathan Pettibone has kept the Phillies competitive for most of his 11 starts but now that the book is out on him, his very average arm and stuff is starting to get exposed. He doesn’t walk batters at an excessive pace but he doesn’t strike out batters at an acceptable clip either. Pettibone’s solid ERA in his first seven starts was a result of a fortunate strand rate more than skill. Over his last four starts, that strand rate has normalized and his ERA over that stretch was 4.62. xERA of 4.55 points to a below average pitcher. The Phillies have lost three of Pettibone’s last four starts by scores of 10-5, 9-1 and 9-2. His only win over that span was against the Marlins. Pitching at this park as the chalk, Pettibone has little appeal.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Dillon Gee has a high 37% hit% with runners on base compared to a norm of 27-28% for NL pitchers. This has been a primary reason for his inflated ERA. That said, his base skills with runners on base have been excellent for two years running and after a rough start, Gee’s velocity is returning as his arm strength has come back. Geee has allowed two runs or less in four straight starts. Over that span, covering 29 innings, he’s struck out 32 batters while walking four. That includes his last two against St. Louis and Atlanta. Gee’s 4.56 ERA is one of the more misleading numbers in all of baseball and the proof is in his 3.13 xERA. You won't be able to buy low on Gee for much longer and the fact that he’s a dog here is bordering on ludicrous. The Mets have won four of five and have an outstanding opportunity of making it five of six here. [/FONT]
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Chicago +122 over KANSAS CITY
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The White Sox went off for nine runs yesterday and they have quietly scored four runs or more in six straight games. With just one win over that span and just two wins over their last nine games, Chicago’s improved offense is going a little bit unnoticed, thus helping to create this overlay. The South Side has a great chance of keeping it going here against Wade Davis. Here’s Davis’s story from last season: Struggling starting pitcher with declining strikeout rate adds a couple of MPH to his FB and slider out of the pen and voila, a potential closer is born. Those who pegged Wade Davis as a sleeper entering 2013 probably hoped he'd make a seamless transition from relief to rotation, a story we've become accustomed to in recent years. However, Davis already has a history of mediocre results as a starter and he has not fared any better in his second attempt. While remnants of his impressive relief skills remain, his return to the rotation has basically been a bust. Davis has been unable to maintain his strikeout gains from 2012 and while it's still above his previous norms in 2013, it hasn't been enough to offset his poor control (75 IP - 30/65 – BB/K’s). Davis’s four-seam fastball velocity has fallen from 93 mph to 91, where it was during his starting days in Tampa. His ERA has taken a beating thanks to an abnormally high hit%, but it's partially a product of batters making strong contact off him (30% line-drive %). Davis has failed to make it to the sixth inning in nine of his 14 starts and with an alarming 1.74 WHIP, he seems unfit to make it as a starter in the majors.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Meanwhile, Jose Quintana just keeps refining his skills and improving. In his last two starts, Qunitana’s groundball rate was an off-the-charts 64%. He’s the only pitcher since June 11 to slow down the Blue Jays when he pitched into the seventh inning against them and allowed just two earned runs. Qunitana’s line-drive rate is 12 points lower than his mound opponents’ at 18% and while he can sometimes walk a tightrope, he’s a much better option taking back a price than Davis is spotting one. The Royals had been sailing along recently with 11 wins in 13 games but a 4-3 loss in Cleveland on Tuesday in game that they should have won four times over (bad base-running, numerous opportunities to score, a blown save, etc) has turned into three straight losses and this one is probably going to make it four for this streaky host.
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[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Marlins have now won 11 of their past 20 games. They came in here and won the first two games of this four-game set and today they get their biggest advantage on the hill of the three games so far with Jacob Turner opposing Barry Zito. Zito’s skills continue to be one of the worst among starters in all of baseball and that includes Triple AAA as well. Any success he's had is strictly a product of this park and pure luck. Zito is still walking too many hitters and striking out few. His 4.67 ERA is flattering when you consider he has a 1.59 WHIP, a 29% line-drive rate and a fly-ball bias profile. Most pitchers that have some success at this level have at least one go-to pitch that they utilize when they’re in trouble but Zito doesn’t have any pitch to go to. All of his offerings are well below average and he’s proven over and over that he can’t get out of trouble on his own. If this were a playoff game or a close pennant race in late August or September, the Giants would not have this guy anywhere near the mound. The Giants are sending him out there every fifth day because they have to pay him 20M this year and they’re not about to sit a guy that they have to cut a check to every week for $384,000. Unfortunately for Zito, this is an afternoon game that goes off at 1:05 PM in San Fran and AT&T Park is a much better place for hitter’s during the day because that damp nighttime air is not present. Zito gets credit for pitching every fifth day and winning some games but that doesn’t mean he’s worthy of backing. The metrics tell us just the opposite.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jacob Turner is a guy to keep your eye on. He’s pitching behind the shadows of Jose Fernandez and with just four starts after being called up, he’s also well under the radar. In those four starts, Turner has yet to lose. With some run support, he could easily be 4-0. Turner has allowed three earned runs or less in all of his starts. Jacob Turner comes in with a 2.18 ERA and a skills supported 3.44 xERA. In 2011, this kid was a top prospect in the Tigers organization, who was virtually unhittable in the minors when he was on his game. He has pedigree and upside and he’s just 21 years old. This is the player that the Marlins received for Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante last July and the Fish did their homework. Turner had an elite groundball rate in the minors and he’s carried it over to this level. After four starts, Turner’s GB rate is 56%. He exhibits well above average control of an 89-98 mph fastball with late sink and a sharp-breaking curveball. Turner is a forgotten man because he’s had some setbacks since being a first round pick (9th overall) in 2009 but he has all the tools to be a front-line starter for years. Momentum, price and a huge pitching edge for the visitor make this choice an easy one for us.[/FONT]
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N.Y. Mets +107 over PHILADELPHIA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Phillies 19 day games are the fewest in the majors and they’ve won just seven of them. Jonathan Pettibone has kept the Phillies competitive for most of his 11 starts but now that the book is out on him, his very average arm and stuff is starting to get exposed. He doesn’t walk batters at an excessive pace but he doesn’t strike out batters at an acceptable clip either. Pettibone’s solid ERA in his first seven starts was a result of a fortunate strand rate more than skill. Over his last four starts, that strand rate has normalized and his ERA over that stretch was 4.62. xERA of 4.55 points to a below average pitcher. The Phillies have lost three of Pettibone’s last four starts by scores of 10-5, 9-1 and 9-2. His only win over that span was against the Marlins. Pitching at this park as the chalk, Pettibone has little appeal.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Dillon Gee has a high 37% hit% with runners on base compared to a norm of 27-28% for NL pitchers. This has been a primary reason for his inflated ERA. That said, his base skills with runners on base have been excellent for two years running and after a rough start, Gee’s velocity is returning as his arm strength has come back. Geee has allowed two runs or less in four straight starts. Over that span, covering 29 innings, he’s struck out 32 batters while walking four. That includes his last two against St. Louis and Atlanta. Gee’s 4.56 ERA is one of the more misleading numbers in all of baseball and the proof is in his 3.13 xERA. You won't be able to buy low on Gee for much longer and the fact that he’s a dog here is bordering on ludicrous. The Mets have won four of five and have an outstanding opportunity of making it five of six here. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
Chicago +122 over KANSAS CITY
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The White Sox went off for nine runs yesterday and they have quietly scored four runs or more in six straight games. With just one win over that span and just two wins over their last nine games, Chicago’s improved offense is going a little bit unnoticed, thus helping to create this overlay. The South Side has a great chance of keeping it going here against Wade Davis. Here’s Davis’s story from last season: Struggling starting pitcher with declining strikeout rate adds a couple of MPH to his FB and slider out of the pen and voila, a potential closer is born. Those who pegged Wade Davis as a sleeper entering 2013 probably hoped he'd make a seamless transition from relief to rotation, a story we've become accustomed to in recent years. However, Davis already has a history of mediocre results as a starter and he has not fared any better in his second attempt. While remnants of his impressive relief skills remain, his return to the rotation has basically been a bust. Davis has been unable to maintain his strikeout gains from 2012 and while it's still above his previous norms in 2013, it hasn't been enough to offset his poor control (75 IP - 30/65 – BB/K’s). Davis’s four-seam fastball velocity has fallen from 93 mph to 91, where it was during his starting days in Tampa. His ERA has taken a beating thanks to an abnormally high hit%, but it's partially a product of batters making strong contact off him (30% line-drive %). Davis has failed to make it to the sixth inning in nine of his 14 starts and with an alarming 1.74 WHIP, he seems unfit to make it as a starter in the majors.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Meanwhile, Jose Quintana just keeps refining his skills and improving. In his last two starts, Qunitana’s groundball rate was an off-the-charts 64%. He’s the only pitcher since June 11 to slow down the Blue Jays when he pitched into the seventh inning against them and allowed just two earned runs. Qunitana’s line-drive rate is 12 points lower than his mound opponents’ at 18% and while he can sometimes walk a tightrope, he’s a much better option taking back a price than Davis is spotting one. The Royals had been sailing along recently with 11 wins in 13 games but a 4-3 loss in Cleveland on Tuesday in game that they should have won four times over (bad base-running, numerous opportunities to score, a blown save, etc) has turned into three straight losses and this one is probably going to make it four for this streaky host.
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