2013 MLB "Road Dogs/Game Totals"

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The plays in this thread will consist of "Value based Road Dogs" and "Value Based Game Totals".

Each posted play has a wager amount of $500 on the dogs and to win $500 on the game totals.

I won't have allot of daily plays but what I will have is pretty darn strong plays, IMO.

Good luck!
 

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June 22, 2013

7:05PM PST

929Pittsburgh (F. Liriano-L) ML +115 at LA Angels (J. Williams-R)

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send to the mound tonight Francisco Liriano who brings into this late evening contest an overall record of 5-3 with a 2.44 ERA. He has been slightly better at home thus far this season but still boasts a road record of 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA. The LA Angels will not have any left handed batters in the line up tonight due to the .089 batting average against Francisco Liriano. With that being said only 2 of the 9 starters in the LA Angels line up are batting over .260 and several haven't had much success against Francisco Liriano. Although the last 5 years he has struggled against the LA Angels that, was of course, in a different uniform and several LA Angels who have had success against him aren't on the current roster. Francisco Liriano has also only allowed 7 earned runs in his last 4 road starts, 3 of which he allowed 2 runs or less including one shutout. The LA Angels will send Jerome Williams to the mound tonight who has been less than stellar in his last 3 starts allowing 8 runs on 16 hits in 12.0 innings. He may and has pitched slightly better at home this season but it may not be enough versus the ace of the Pirates. The LA Angels have been hitting the ball well as of late but I will side with the pitching of the Pirates at plus money to overcome the bats of the Angels.
 

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Nice call but most peeps have signed off for the day except the chasers by the time a late game is posted and start time is less than an hour away...especially on a weekend. Not complaining, it's just that a pick this late helps very few. Good luck on the next one!!!
 

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nice start to hopefully a nice place to find some value plays at but with you being from the west coast I know its going to be a nice place to maybe find some good info about the west coast teams that us guys from the east dont always get here .....I know everyone can read stats and get stats but sometimes stats are deceiving and dont always tell you something thats right in front of yyour eyes and thats kind of stuff that makes these forums valuable to guys like us that bet but dont know what the winds like or how the team is playing or pitching like I do with Pitt right now I watch all of theyre games and see what they are doing on both sides of the ball and I see other guys from chicago and Phil and new york and Boston and so on and so on and thats how we can win here......I personally was already on Pitt last night but do look forward to other winners on the left coast late at night .....thanks for the info and hope to see many more
 

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June 24, 2013

4:10PM PST

907Toronto (E. Rogers-R) ML +120 at Tampa Bay (J. Hellickson)

The entire baseball world knows that the Blue Jays are the hottest team in the league entering Monday and anyone who knows the logic of sports wagering you never bet against a streak but rather with the streak, but those are not the reasons I am playing them today. Tonight's starter for Toronto, Esmil Rogers, has been pitching very after leaving the pen. In his last 3 starts, all three against two of the best hitting teams in baseball (Texas & Colorado) he has allowed 4 runs and 12 hits in 17.2 innings, getting the win in 2 of those starts. As a starter this season he is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and while I do expect his earned run average to climb a run or two as the season progresses, I believe if he repeats his last few performances that will be good enough for a win tonight as hot as their offense is hitting the ball. Jose Bautista (.364), Melky Cabrera (.500), Edwin Encarnacion (.353), Adam Lind (.444) and J Arencibia.P. (.286) have all had success against Jeremy Hellickson dating back the last 5 seasons. Only 2 Tampa Bay players on their roster have 4 or more at bats against Esmil Rogers, Kelly Johnson (.000) and James Loney (.200) during that same span. Also during their 11 game win streak their pen has allowed only 2 earned runs which outstanding. Tampa Bay has hit the ball above average versus the Blue Jays rotation (with the exception of Esmil Rogers) this season but that does not match what Toronto has produced with the bats the last 11 games, scoring almost 7 runs per game, pounding 2 home runs per game and averaging just below .350 with runners in scoring position. Some bettors may ask, "How can Toronto be a dog while winning their last 11 games. This game must be a trap". I am not one of them.
 

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June 24, 2013

4:10PM PST



907Toronto (E. Rogers-R) ML +120 at Tampa Bay (J. Hellickson)

The entire baseball world knows that the Blue Jays are the hottest team in the league entering Monday and anyone who knows the logic of sports wagering you never bet against a streak but rather with the streak, but those are not the reasons I am playing them today. Tonight's starter for Toronto, Esmil Rogers, has been pitching very after leaving the pen. In his last 3 starts, all three against two of the best hitting teams in baseball (Texas & Colorado) he has allowed 4 runs and 12 hits in 17.2 innings, getting the win in 2 of those starts. As a starter this season he is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and while I do expect his earned run average to climb a run or two as the season progresses, I believe if he repeats his last few performances that will be good enough for a win tonight as hot as their offense is hitting the ball. Jose Bautista (.364), Melky Cabrera (.500), Edwin Encarnacion (.353), Adam Lind (.444) and J Arencibia.P. (.286) have all had success against Jeremy Hellickson dating back the last 5 seasons. Only 2 Tampa Bay players on their roster have 4 or more at bats against Esmil Rogers, Kelly Johnson (.000) and James Loney (.200) during that same span. Also during their 11 game win streak their pen has allowed only 2 earned runs which outstanding. Tampa Bay has hit the ball above average versus the Blue Jays rotation (with the exception of Esmil Rogers) this season but that does not match what Toronto has produced with the bats the last 11 games, scoring almost 7 runs per game, pounding 2 home runs per game and averaging just below .350 with runners in scoring position. Some bettors may ask, "How can Toronto be a dog while winning their last 11 games. This game must be a trap". I am not one of them.


My problem with this game is there is no data for him as a starter on the road and those starts vs texas and colorado were @ home and both teams were in terrible slumps at the time. But I do agree about going with the streak. But thats it.
 

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My problem with this game is there is no data for him as a starter on the road and those starts vs texas and colorado were @ home and both teams were in terrible slumps at the time. But I do agree about going with the streak. But thats it.
As a starter on the road you are correct. As a reliever on the road he has a 3.57 ERA in 12 appearances which includes 22.2 innings pitched. In 3 relief appearances against the Rays this season he has allowed 2 runs on 5 hits in 5.2 innings pitched. Also, the Tampa Bay roster as a whole do not have many at bats against Esmil and I mentioned the 2 players that do have had no success. Good luck.
 

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BOL tonight
 

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My problem with this game is there is no data for him as a starter on the road and those starts vs texas and colorado were @ home and both teams were in terrible slumps at the time. But I do agree about going with the streak. But thats it.
I guess it's also good timing for Esmil to face the slumping Rays who are 5-15 overall and 2-6 at home since June 9th.
 

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June 25, 2013

5:10PM PST

973St. Louis (Westbrook) at 974Houston (Harrell) ML +139
1.0 units ($500) to win 1.39 units ($695)

Sorry I don't have time for a write up tonight.
 

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