[h=1]Best bets at Wimbledon[/h][h=3]Is Novak Djokovic a good value at +135? Plus, long shots and prop bets[/h]By Alf Musketa | ESPN Insider
The Championships at Wimbledon begin on Monday and concludes Sunday, July 7 at the All England Club in London's Borough of Merton. This major tournament is played exclusively on grass and, believe it or not, was the very first surface that the game of tennis was competed on.
We love betting on Wimbledon for many reasons, the main one being that the sportsbooks will offer so much more compared to other tennis events in terms of props, over-under game totals, sets betting, adjusted tournament odds and live betting. Future book odds have been available since the close of the last major, the French Open, but Round 1 matchups are not determined until the week before the event.
Handicapping a tennis tournament starts with observing the draws and identifying court surface specialists, and for this article we are going to concentrate only on the Men's Singles draw. The seeds have been set and somehow through the wonders of the ATP points system and ATP rankings, the French Open winner and two-time Wimbledon champion Rafael Nadal is the No. 5 seed while David Ferrer, who just lost to Nadal in the French Open Final and who has never won a major title, is the No. 4 seed. And thus the bottom half of the men's bracket has three of the "Big Four" and is the talk of the event to date.
The Big Four is World No. 1 Novak Djokovic, No. 2 Andy Murray, No. 3 Roger Federer and No. 5 Nadal. One of these four players should win Wimbledon. In fact, the combo of these four players is -350 versus the rest of the field where as no individual player has odds of less than +135.
Let's take a look at the Big Four and a couple of longshot value bets that may have a chance to win. (Odds courtesy of Pinnacle Sports)
[h=3]Contenders[/h]
Novak Djokovic (+135)
Bet $100 to win on Djokovic, and if he wins you'll collect $235 for a profit of $135. He is the top seed and obvious choice to win because no one has been more consistent in the majors for the past three years, winning five times and a being runner-up twice. He won Wimbledon in 2011 and lost in the semi-finals to Federer last season. His speed on the court is second to none and on grass -- which is at least three times faster than clay -- his baseline game and coverage will wear down opponents.
His particular half of the tournament bracket looks like a breeze compared to the rest of the Big Four. He won't be tested until the quarterfinal meeting against perhaps Tomas Berdych (13-2 head-to-head record versus Berdych) or the semis against Ferrer, who he also dominates with a 12-5 record. I predict Djokovic to have clear sailing to the finals and be tested and rested less than the other three, and that's why he's the betting favorite.
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Andy Murray (+350 or 3.5 to 1)
Murray finally got the major monkey off his back by winning the 2012 U.S. Open. Since then, he has only beaten one of the Big Four -- Federer twice -- and he lost to Djokovic in the Australian Open final. He withdrew from the French Open due to a back injury. With a quick, miraculous turnaround, Murray recently won the grass prep event, the ATP Queens Club title two weeks ago. Somehow I believe he was pointing to Wimbledon all along and skipped the French Open.
This could be a good thing for his backers, but we've seen the pressure get to Murray in the past as he is the much maligned fan favorite of the U.K. supporters in London. He should get through the quarters fairly easily but then faces defending champion Federer or Nadal in the semis.
Rafael Nadal (+450 or 4.5 to 1)
If Nadal is healthy, he can defeat anyone. He's won Wimbledon twice but last year he had major setbacks with tendinitis in both knees, which forced him to miss the 2012 Olympics and the U.S. Open. In 2013, he withdrew prior to the first major of the year in the Australian Open due to a stomach virus.
Currently Nadal is in top form, winning four tournaments in a row including the French Open for the eighth time. With that said, all those matches were on clay. He's taken a month off to recoup and get ready for this grass major. He'll have to get by Federer and Murray to have a chance at the title.
Roger Federer (+800 or 8 to 1)
Federer, the 17-time Grand Slam career major record holder, stole a title away from the British faithful by defeating Murray in the Wimbledon final last season. He hasn't made a major final since then and recently was knocked out by sixth-seeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros.
At 31 years of age, Federer is still competitive, but his opponents do not fear him as they once did. His forehand alone will win many matches, but his serve has lost some pep. He won the Halle ATP grass tournament recently as his prep for Wimbledon, but the field was very weak: Richard Gasquet was the No.2 seed.
[h=3]Longshots[/h]
Stanislas Wawrinka (35-1)
Wawarinka lost in the final match of the ATP Topshelf Open, his first grass court final ever, but the Swiss-born player and close friend of Roger Federer will come to Wimbledon in good form and confident. He has been known as a giant killer, knocking off many top-seeded players. Wawrinka's five-setter and near upset of Djokovic at the Australian Open is the type of match that his opponent's fear.
He can serve and volley with the best in the game and that style is perfectly suited for the All England Club. We expect him to give Nadal quite a match in the round of eight.
Milos Raonic (200-1)
With a booming 145 mph serve, this young 22-year-old Canadian can pull plenty of upsets. He won his first two matches last year here and defeated Murray in Tokyo. Raonic will look to improve on his 9-9 grass record and has an easy draw. At 200-1, if he gets to the quarters, we can start to hedge our wager to guarantee a profit.
[h=3]Top matchup bets[/h]
There will be huge prices on the Big Four matches until the quarter finals. For example; Djokovic is -5000 or a 50-to-1 favorite to beat Florian Mayer in round one. Yes, that's right, you would have to lay $50 to win $1. In the first few rounds we'll be looking at underdogs and small favorites. I would consider putting players in the -250-to-600 range in a parlay.
Sam Querrey -135 over Bernard Tomic
These two squared off in their only meeting in January of this year where Tomic won in four sets 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 and 6-3. It must be noted that that match was at the Australian Open where Tomic is a native. He had a tremendous crowd advantage and also benefitted from the climate and time change. Querrey has since then had a much better season than Tomic, reaching the semis and quarter finals twice and the round of 16 six times. He has a .500 record on grass in his last 10 starts while Tomic has a 3-7 record.
Stanislas Wawrinka -190 over Lleyton Hewitt
Hewitt won Wimbledon in 2002, however he's 32 years old and this may be his final chance to get to Center Court. Head-to-head, Wawrinka owns a 2-1 record. Hewitt won way back in 2007 while Wawrinka won in 2011, and this past March at Indian Wells in two straight sets serving five aces to one. As we mentioned earlier, Wawrinka is on a roll on grass and this price is cheap. The line should be -300 in my opinion.
[h=3]Prop bets[/h]
Who will last longer? Tomas Berdych -125 vs. Juan Martin del Potro +105
We like Berdych here. He has a 72 percent winning record on grass vs. Del Potro's 68 percent. Del Potro always seems to have health issues and did not enter the French Open due to a virus. He lost to Hewitt in the Queen's Club grass prep tournament.
Who will last longer? Andy Murray -225 vs. Rafael Nadal +190
We'll gladly take the plus price on Nadal. Murray's half of the bracket is tougher than Nadal's. He'll play two top-10 seeds in Marin Cilic -- who is playing his best tennis right now -- and probably Tsonga as the No. 6 seed. We know Tsonga is currently in the best shape of his life. Nadal should cruise through to the quarterfinals to face Federer, and we like the way he is moving on the court to win that match. Murray and Nadal could meet in the semis, and then as an advantage option we could hedge or let our bet ride.
The Championships at Wimbledon begin on Monday and concludes Sunday, July 7 at the All England Club in London's Borough of Merton. This major tournament is played exclusively on grass and, believe it or not, was the very first surface that the game of tennis was competed on.
We love betting on Wimbledon for many reasons, the main one being that the sportsbooks will offer so much more compared to other tennis events in terms of props, over-under game totals, sets betting, adjusted tournament odds and live betting. Future book odds have been available since the close of the last major, the French Open, but Round 1 matchups are not determined until the week before the event.
Handicapping a tennis tournament starts with observing the draws and identifying court surface specialists, and for this article we are going to concentrate only on the Men's Singles draw. The seeds have been set and somehow through the wonders of the ATP points system and ATP rankings, the French Open winner and two-time Wimbledon champion Rafael Nadal is the No. 5 seed while David Ferrer, who just lost to Nadal in the French Open Final and who has never won a major title, is the No. 4 seed. And thus the bottom half of the men's bracket has three of the "Big Four" and is the talk of the event to date.
The Big Four is World No. 1 Novak Djokovic, No. 2 Andy Murray, No. 3 Roger Federer and No. 5 Nadal. One of these four players should win Wimbledon. In fact, the combo of these four players is -350 versus the rest of the field where as no individual player has odds of less than +135.
Let's take a look at the Big Four and a couple of longshot value bets that may have a chance to win. (Odds courtesy of Pinnacle Sports)
[h=3]Contenders[/h]
Novak Djokovic (+135)
Bet $100 to win on Djokovic, and if he wins you'll collect $235 for a profit of $135. He is the top seed and obvious choice to win because no one has been more consistent in the majors for the past three years, winning five times and a being runner-up twice. He won Wimbledon in 2011 and lost in the semi-finals to Federer last season. His speed on the court is second to none and on grass -- which is at least three times faster than clay -- his baseline game and coverage will wear down opponents.
His particular half of the tournament bracket looks like a breeze compared to the rest of the Big Four. He won't be tested until the quarterfinal meeting against perhaps Tomas Berdych (13-2 head-to-head record versus Berdych) or the semis against Ferrer, who he also dominates with a 12-5 record. I predict Djokovic to have clear sailing to the finals and be tested and rested less than the other three, and that's why he's the betting favorite.
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Andy Murray (+350 or 3.5 to 1)
Murray finally got the major monkey off his back by winning the 2012 U.S. Open. Since then, he has only beaten one of the Big Four -- Federer twice -- and he lost to Djokovic in the Australian Open final. He withdrew from the French Open due to a back injury. With a quick, miraculous turnaround, Murray recently won the grass prep event, the ATP Queens Club title two weeks ago. Somehow I believe he was pointing to Wimbledon all along and skipped the French Open.
This could be a good thing for his backers, but we've seen the pressure get to Murray in the past as he is the much maligned fan favorite of the U.K. supporters in London. He should get through the quarters fairly easily but then faces defending champion Federer or Nadal in the semis.
Rafael Nadal (+450 or 4.5 to 1)
If Nadal is healthy, he can defeat anyone. He's won Wimbledon twice but last year he had major setbacks with tendinitis in both knees, which forced him to miss the 2012 Olympics and the U.S. Open. In 2013, he withdrew prior to the first major of the year in the Australian Open due to a stomach virus.
Currently Nadal is in top form, winning four tournaments in a row including the French Open for the eighth time. With that said, all those matches were on clay. He's taken a month off to recoup and get ready for this grass major. He'll have to get by Federer and Murray to have a chance at the title.
Roger Federer (+800 or 8 to 1)
Federer, the 17-time Grand Slam career major record holder, stole a title away from the British faithful by defeating Murray in the Wimbledon final last season. He hasn't made a major final since then and recently was knocked out by sixth-seeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros.
At 31 years of age, Federer is still competitive, but his opponents do not fear him as they once did. His forehand alone will win many matches, but his serve has lost some pep. He won the Halle ATP grass tournament recently as his prep for Wimbledon, but the field was very weak: Richard Gasquet was the No.2 seed.
[h=3]Longshots[/h]
Stanislas Wawrinka (35-1)
Wawarinka lost in the final match of the ATP Topshelf Open, his first grass court final ever, but the Swiss-born player and close friend of Roger Federer will come to Wimbledon in good form and confident. He has been known as a giant killer, knocking off many top-seeded players. Wawrinka's five-setter and near upset of Djokovic at the Australian Open is the type of match that his opponent's fear.
He can serve and volley with the best in the game and that style is perfectly suited for the All England Club. We expect him to give Nadal quite a match in the round of eight.
Milos Raonic (200-1)
With a booming 145 mph serve, this young 22-year-old Canadian can pull plenty of upsets. He won his first two matches last year here and defeated Murray in Tokyo. Raonic will look to improve on his 9-9 grass record and has an easy draw. At 200-1, if he gets to the quarters, we can start to hedge our wager to guarantee a profit.
[h=3]Top matchup bets[/h]
There will be huge prices on the Big Four matches until the quarter finals. For example; Djokovic is -5000 or a 50-to-1 favorite to beat Florian Mayer in round one. Yes, that's right, you would have to lay $50 to win $1. In the first few rounds we'll be looking at underdogs and small favorites. I would consider putting players in the -250-to-600 range in a parlay.
Sam Querrey -135 over Bernard Tomic
These two squared off in their only meeting in January of this year where Tomic won in four sets 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 and 6-3. It must be noted that that match was at the Australian Open where Tomic is a native. He had a tremendous crowd advantage and also benefitted from the climate and time change. Querrey has since then had a much better season than Tomic, reaching the semis and quarter finals twice and the round of 16 six times. He has a .500 record on grass in his last 10 starts while Tomic has a 3-7 record.
Stanislas Wawrinka -190 over Lleyton Hewitt
Hewitt won Wimbledon in 2002, however he's 32 years old and this may be his final chance to get to Center Court. Head-to-head, Wawrinka owns a 2-1 record. Hewitt won way back in 2007 while Wawrinka won in 2011, and this past March at Indian Wells in two straight sets serving five aces to one. As we mentioned earlier, Wawrinka is on a roll on grass and this price is cheap. The line should be -300 in my opinion.
[h=3]Prop bets[/h]
Who will last longer? Tomas Berdych -125 vs. Juan Martin del Potro +105
We like Berdych here. He has a 72 percent winning record on grass vs. Del Potro's 68 percent. Del Potro always seems to have health issues and did not enter the French Open due to a virus. He lost to Hewitt in the Queen's Club grass prep tournament.
Who will last longer? Andy Murray -225 vs. Rafael Nadal +190
We'll gladly take the plus price on Nadal. Murray's half of the bracket is tougher than Nadal's. He'll play two top-10 seeds in Marin Cilic -- who is playing his best tennis right now -- and probably Tsonga as the No. 6 seed. We know Tsonga is currently in the best shape of his life. Nadal should cruise through to the quarterfinals to face Federer, and we like the way he is moving on the court to win that match. Murray and Nadal could meet in the semis, and then as an advantage option we could hedge or let our bet ride.
