| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.26 |
| Last 30 Days | 33 | 45 | 0.00 | -11.28 |
| Season to Date | 109 | 120 | 0.00 | +11.50 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
All plays are for 2 units
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]
Beware of small, enticing favorites on the road. The Pirates are coming off a three-game sweep over the Angels in which they scored 21 times. The Bucs have also won four straight and have scored five times or more in each game. Jeff Locke against Joe Saunders looks like a pitching mismatch in Pittsburgh’s favor but we say otherwise. Locke has been living an extremely charmed life. He’s 6-1 with a 2.01 ERA and over his last three games, Locke’s ERA is 0.46, yet he and the hot Pirates are such a small favorite. Looks enticing, no? The skills displayed by Locke so far aren't surprising, but the results are. Locke's weak strikeout rate and borderline control haven't come back to bite him—yet (89 IP – 39/63 BB/K’s). His hit rate of 23% and strand rate of 86% are both unsustainable and will regress toward more typical levels. His xERA and skills suggest Locke isn't a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher, let alone a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. Locke is a feel-good story for this team but his numbers are due to start going downhill sooner than later. Nothing in Locke's pedigree or his minor league record suggest that he's capable of maintaining his current level of production. NOTHING.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Joe Saunders is 5-7 with a 4.48 ERA and that’s not pretty. However, things have changed. Saunders has used his slider 18% of the time in June, which is the most he has used it in his career. He is mixing it in well, as in his last five starts, he has allowed only one ER in four of those five, resulting in a 1.82 ERA over that time. As a long-time member of the Angels, he always enjoyed pitching at Safeco Field, as he has early on in his first season as a Mariner. In 16 career starts at Safeco, he is 10-2 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 101.1 IP. The opposing Pirates should not present the toughest of tests, as against left-handed pitching, they have a disappointing .224 BA and .650 OPS. Don’t focus on Saunders ERA. Focus more on the changed he’s made to improve his game. He’s a veteran that doesn’t get rattled and he looks better right now than he ever has. The oddsmakers are looking for Pirates money and that alone is a big red flag for Pirate backers.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
Philadelphia +108 over SAN DIEGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Phillies figure to be in a foul mood here after blowing a three-run, ninth inning lead last night but that’s not going to deter us from playing them here because we get a significant edge on the mound. Current Phillies have gone 45-145 (.310) against Jason Marquis with a .441 SLG % and a .832 OPS. That’s some serious damage. Marquis’s only asset is an elite groundball rate of 55% but his inability to miss bats skews that number. The truth is, Jason Marquis’s skills are worse than ever. A decent control rate used to be Marquis' hallmark but even that has abandoned him, as he’s already walked 48 batters in 90 frames. He’s also given up 15 bombs. Incredibly, the Padres have won nine of Marquis’s last 10 starts but with a barely acceptable 1.38 WHIP and an xERA of 4.79, his win rate is completely unsustainable.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Kyle Kendrick is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. Kendrick has gained more aggregate movement on his pitches than any other SP between 2012 and 2013. His sinker has gained three inches of vertical depth. His cutter and changeup also have more vertical movement than they showed in 2012. Kendrick’s groundball rate has improved dramatically over the past calendar year and it’s now up to 50% on the year and up to 58% over his past five starts. Kendrick’s xERA over his last five starts is also one of the best in the league at 2.98. Kendrick has also solved LHP, an Achilles Heel in the past. Kendrick has accomplished all of this while pitching half his games at a hitter friendly venue and he offers up some nice value here against an opposing imposter.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
N.Y. Mets +152 over CHICAGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Chris Sale is damn good. His 92.3 mph average fastball velocity already is higher than it was in 2012. He has great command against both LH and RH bats. Sale has added three inches of horizontal movement to his slider while reducing its vertical movement by three inches. Hitters have managed a measly .161 BA against it so far this season. His changeup also has become even more of an unhittable pitch. All signs point to Sale continuing to become one of the game's best starters. The problem is not Sale but the team he pitches for. With all that skill, Sale has five wins in 13 starts because he gets very little run support and needs to be near flawless to pick up a win. That’s added pressure on a pitcher that feels he can’t give up anything or he’ll get tagged with another loss. This wager is not about betting against Chris Sale, it’s about fading the South Side at a ridiculous price.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Zach Wheeler was called up to start the second game of a June 17 doubleheader against Atlanta (he was optioned to Triple-A after the game, as he was the 26th player up just for the doubleheader and the Mets took advantage of the 26th player rule, allowing Wheeler to be recalled in less than 10 days). All he did was go six full shutout innings while allowing just four hits. Wheeler's major league debut came with a lot of anticipation since he came into the season as the Mets top prospect. Wheeler was drafted in the first round of the '09 draft by San Francisco and came to New York in the Carlos Beltran (RF, STL) trade. The tall, lanky RH throws two plus pitches: a 93-95 mph fastball (tops out at 98) with good late movement and a tight slider. An average change-up gives him a third serviceable offering to keep hitters off balance. Wheeler throws with simple, repeatable mechanics from a 3/4 arm slot. He likes to work fast and is not afraid to challenge hitters inside with his fastball. The Mets have been working with Wheeler on becoming more efficient with his pitches to go deeper into games. He has enough upside to stay in the Mets' rotation the rest of the season and to be a frontline starter for years to come. The Mets have a good chance of winning here because any pitcher in the league is capable of shutting down the White Sox. Wheeler is no exception. [/FONT]
[/FONT]
[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]
SEATTLE +104 over Pittsburgh
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Beware of small, enticing favorites on the road. The Pirates are coming off a three-game sweep over the Angels in which they scored 21 times. The Bucs have also won four straight and have scored five times or more in each game. Jeff Locke against Joe Saunders looks like a pitching mismatch in Pittsburgh’s favor but we say otherwise. Locke has been living an extremely charmed life. He’s 6-1 with a 2.01 ERA and over his last three games, Locke’s ERA is 0.46, yet he and the hot Pirates are such a small favorite. Looks enticing, no? The skills displayed by Locke so far aren't surprising, but the results are. Locke's weak strikeout rate and borderline control haven't come back to bite him—yet (89 IP – 39/63 BB/K’s). His hit rate of 23% and strand rate of 86% are both unsustainable and will regress toward more typical levels. His xERA and skills suggest Locke isn't a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher, let alone a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. Locke is a feel-good story for this team but his numbers are due to start going downhill sooner than later. Nothing in Locke's pedigree or his minor league record suggest that he's capable of maintaining his current level of production. NOTHING.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Joe Saunders is 5-7 with a 4.48 ERA and that’s not pretty. However, things have changed. Saunders has used his slider 18% of the time in June, which is the most he has used it in his career. He is mixing it in well, as in his last five starts, he has allowed only one ER in four of those five, resulting in a 1.82 ERA over that time. As a long-time member of the Angels, he always enjoyed pitching at Safeco Field, as he has early on in his first season as a Mariner. In 16 career starts at Safeco, he is 10-2 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 101.1 IP. The opposing Pirates should not present the toughest of tests, as against left-handed pitching, they have a disappointing .224 BA and .650 OPS. Don’t focus on Saunders ERA. Focus more on the changed he’s made to improve his game. He’s a veteran that doesn’t get rattled and he looks better right now than he ever has. The oddsmakers are looking for Pirates money and that alone is a big red flag for Pirate backers.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
Philadelphia +108 over SAN DIEGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Phillies figure to be in a foul mood here after blowing a three-run, ninth inning lead last night but that’s not going to deter us from playing them here because we get a significant edge on the mound. Current Phillies have gone 45-145 (.310) against Jason Marquis with a .441 SLG % and a .832 OPS. That’s some serious damage. Marquis’s only asset is an elite groundball rate of 55% but his inability to miss bats skews that number. The truth is, Jason Marquis’s skills are worse than ever. A decent control rate used to be Marquis' hallmark but even that has abandoned him, as he’s already walked 48 batters in 90 frames. He’s also given up 15 bombs. Incredibly, the Padres have won nine of Marquis’s last 10 starts but with a barely acceptable 1.38 WHIP and an xERA of 4.79, his win rate is completely unsustainable.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Kyle Kendrick is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. Kendrick has gained more aggregate movement on his pitches than any other SP between 2012 and 2013. His sinker has gained three inches of vertical depth. His cutter and changeup also have more vertical movement than they showed in 2012. Kendrick’s groundball rate has improved dramatically over the past calendar year and it’s now up to 50% on the year and up to 58% over his past five starts. Kendrick’s xERA over his last five starts is also one of the best in the league at 2.98. Kendrick has also solved LHP, an Achilles Heel in the past. Kendrick has accomplished all of this while pitching half his games at a hitter friendly venue and he offers up some nice value here against an opposing imposter.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
N.Y. Mets +152 over CHICAGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Chris Sale is damn good. His 92.3 mph average fastball velocity already is higher than it was in 2012. He has great command against both LH and RH bats. Sale has added three inches of horizontal movement to his slider while reducing its vertical movement by three inches. Hitters have managed a measly .161 BA against it so far this season. His changeup also has become even more of an unhittable pitch. All signs point to Sale continuing to become one of the game's best starters. The problem is not Sale but the team he pitches for. With all that skill, Sale has five wins in 13 starts because he gets very little run support and needs to be near flawless to pick up a win. That’s added pressure on a pitcher that feels he can’t give up anything or he’ll get tagged with another loss. This wager is not about betting against Chris Sale, it’s about fading the South Side at a ridiculous price.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Zach Wheeler was called up to start the second game of a June 17 doubleheader against Atlanta (he was optioned to Triple-A after the game, as he was the 26th player up just for the doubleheader and the Mets took advantage of the 26th player rule, allowing Wheeler to be recalled in less than 10 days). All he did was go six full shutout innings while allowing just four hits. Wheeler's major league debut came with a lot of anticipation since he came into the season as the Mets top prospect. Wheeler was drafted in the first round of the '09 draft by San Francisco and came to New York in the Carlos Beltran (RF, STL) trade. The tall, lanky RH throws two plus pitches: a 93-95 mph fastball (tops out at 98) with good late movement and a tight slider. An average change-up gives him a third serviceable offering to keep hitters off balance. Wheeler throws with simple, repeatable mechanics from a 3/4 arm slot. He likes to work fast and is not afraid to challenge hitters inside with his fastball. The Mets have been working with Wheeler on becoming more efficient with his pitches to go deeper into games. He has enough upside to stay in the Mets' rotation the rest of the season and to be a frontline starter for years to come. The Mets have a good chance of winning here because any pitcher in the league is capable of shutting down the White Sox. Wheeler is no exception. [/FONT]
[/FONT]
[/FONT]
