Service Plays Thursday 6/27/13

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BONES BEST BET

CFL Week 1

Straight Picks

Montreal Alouettes vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers - Under 53 / -110 *1*

The Blue Bombers are opening a brand new stadium on Thursday, and the place should be rocking to kickoff the CFL season. The Bombers scored a league low 376 points last year (just 20.9 per game), the next lowest scoring team put up 422 points (Edmonton) - they do not have a high powered offense at all. Meanwhile, their defense was not great last year - but they played well at home, and should experience the added boost of the new stadium effect. The Alouettes are also notoriously slow starters on offense, with the under hitting at a 16-2 clip in their last 18 June games.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Toronto Argonauts - Over 55 / -110 *1.5*

Despite it being Week 1 where some teams start off slow, we would be foolish to not play the over on this game. Hamilton scored a league high 538 (29.9 per) points and allowed a league high 576 (32 per) points last year, absolutely huge numbers and past the over right there. The Argonauts were a middle of the pack team in points for and against, but against the Tiger-Cats something just clicks with them. These teams played 4 games betweem then last year with combined scores of 83, 76, 63, and 63 not even close to the total set at 55.

Edmonton Eskimos - ML / +100 *0.75*

Saskatchewan and Edmonton are two evenly matched teams, for Edmonton to be a plus money dog at home does not seem right to us. Edmonton is a decent home team (5-4 last year) while the Roughriders have trouble traveling (3-6 last year) and lost both games in Edmonton last year (37-20 and 28-20).

3 Team Teaser - 7 Points - Ties Reduce / +150 *1*
Winnipeg +10.5 / Hamilton Toronto O48 / Edmonton +8

We've already discussed the over , and getting it down to 48 is a no-brainer to us. We also have discussed taking the Eskimos. Leaving just Winnipeg +10.5 to discuss. Winnipeg were 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games, but perhaps more importantly Montreal is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Winnipeg. Montreal struggles in Winnipeg, and we can see that trend continuing in Week 1.

Steve's Golf Picks

AT&T National

JASON DAY 16 TO 1

JEFF OVERTON 60 TO 1

BO VAN PELT 30 TO 1

CHRIS STROUD 75 TO 1

PATRICK REED 125 TO 1

JOHN HUH 70 TO 1

No head to head picks.

AT&T National Golf Betting Preview & Picks
by Matt Fargo

The PGA Tour moves on to the AT&T National at the Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, MD. This is the fifth time that Congressional has hosted this event but just the second time since renovations took place prior to the 2011 U.S. Open.

Before the renovations, Congressional was a relatively easy track but that is not the case after the USGA took over. Out of 49 venues last season, Congressional ranked as the third toughest course, and toughest of non-Majors, at +2.036 over par.

It was also the hardest Par-71 course on tour, just ahead of Riviera Country Club and Harbour Town Golf Links. All facets of the game are difficult as putting, scrambling, greens hit and driving accuracy all ranked 14th or lower.

Only 14 players finished below par last year, led by Tiger Woods, who won by two shots over Bo Van Pelt and three shots over Adam Scott. A strained elbow will keep Tiger from defending his title and that typically brings a lot more of the field back into the mix.

Past history is limited with the layout and surface of the greens changing, therefore it is more favorable to look at current form as the biggest factor heading into this week. A look into last year's finish also helps.

The field is thinned out somewhat with the Irish Open highlighting the European Tour this week. Overall, there are just two players ranked within the OWGR Top 10, Adam Scott and Brandt Snedeker, 14 of the Top 30 and 24 of the Top 50. This after Justin Rose withdrew prior to the week. Eleven winners from 2013 are teeing it up, including last week's winner Ken Duke, as are two past champions of this event, Nick Watney and K.J. Choi.

With Woods out of the picture this week, Adam Scott (+1,200) is the slight favorite. He played well here last year with a solo third but he did miss the cut at the 2011 U.S. Open, although that was a much more difficult setup altogether. He has not played much since his win at the Masters and his best finish is a T13 at the Memorial. He should be plenty rested and ready to win again.

Jason Day (+1,500) is having an excellent season. He has yet to miss a cut in 12 medal play starts with four Top 10s and a pair of Top 3s. He placed solo second at the U.S. Open here two years ago behind Rory McIlroy and finished T8 at Congressional last year, five shots behind Woods.

Bo Van Pelt (+3,000) is too good to have won only once on tour (he won the 2009 U.S. Bank Championship). He’s not having a great season in 2013, with just one Top 10 but he has five other Top 25 finishes and he has missed only three cuts in 16 starts. As mentioned, he was the runner-up to Woods last year and he was a solid T14 at the 2011 U.S. Open, so he certainly likes it here.

This is some excellent value for Ryan Palmer (+4,000). He did miss the cut at the U.S. Open in his last start but prior to that, he posted two Top 5s in his previous four starts and has the game to compete. He finished T21 at the 2011 U.S. Open and then T15 at the AT&T last year which included two rounds of 67 and 69.

We will go with John Huh (+5,000) for the long-shot pick this week. He has been pretty average with only one Top 10 this year - a T8 at the Byron Nelson which has similar bentgrass greens. He likes the big stage and finished T11 at the Masters (also similar greens) and T17 at the U.S. Open. He played at Congressional last year and was solid with a T17 highlighted by a Saturday 67.

Recommended tournament win five pack at the AT&T National (All for one unit)

Adam Scott (+1,200)

Jason Day (+1,500)

Bo Van Pelt (+3,000)

Ryan Palmer (+4,000)

John Huh (+5,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 23 events: -25.4 Units

Confederations Cup betting: Spain-Italy semifinal preview

A late header by Tottenham Hotspur transer-target Paulinho put Brazil into the Confederations Cup final and cemented a 2-1 victory over rival Uruguay Wednesday. An all-Euro battle between tiki taka master Spain and catenaccio-styled Italy takes place Thursday to see who faces the Brazilians.

Spain and Brazil are dead-even at +100 to win the Confederations Cup outright. The Italians are off in the distance currently sitting at +1200.

Spain v Italy (-250, +375, +600)

Site: Fortaleza
Game time: 3 p.m. ET

Not a whole lot needs to be said about the Spanish. They set the record for consecutive competitive matches without a defeat (28) following their 3-0 win over the Nigerians. It certainly is a golden era in Spanish football. A once maligned and underachieving national team, now they just seem to win trophies like it's going out of style. And speaking of style, the Spanish lead the tournament in possession (per normal) at 68.9 percent. They pelt the opposition with 22.3 shots per game and pass the ball at an absurd rate of 92 percent accuracy. And some think they haven't even hit their stride. Sheesh. The Italians, on the other hand, are not faring up to their own standard. The Azzurri were throttled 4-2 by the Brazilians in the final match of the group stage and are wrecked with injury. Striker Mario Balotelli and left back Ignazio Abate are both out. Midfielder Riccardo Montolivo is doubtful and rumors are circulating that manager Cesare Prandelli may need to switch to a 3-5-2 as a result. Mind you, the Italians played in that formation at times in Euro 2012 and played some of their best football in years. Basically, midfielders Andrea Pirlo and Daniele De Rossi must capture the form they had in the 2012 tourney if Italy has any chance here.

* The two sides played twice at the aforementioned Euro 2012 tournament. The nations drew 1-1 in the first match and eventually met in the final. Spain dominated said final to the tune of an easy 4-0 victory.

* The Italians last defeated Spain in a 2011 friendly by a score of 2-1. Midfielder Alberto Aquilani, who will probably feature in the starting 11 Thursday, scored the winning goal.

On the clock: Best betting options for the 2013 NBA Draft
By JASON LOGAN

The 2013 NBA Draft is packed with uncertainty, which is great for bettors looking for value in the numerous props involved with this year’s event.

Not even the No. 1 overall selection is etched in stone, meaning a few surprises here and there can really throw a wrench into teams’ draft strategies and have players going earlier or later than experts and oddsmakers expected.

Here’s how we see the first 10 picks of Thursday’s NBA Draft shaking down based on team needs, player profiles and the endless stream of mock drafts available online:

No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers – Nerlens Noel (Kentucky)

Whispers of Greg Oden surround Noel, who blew out his knee this past season, which have the Cavs on the fence between the UK product and Maryland’s Alex Len. If you don’t think Cleveland rolls the dice, take a combo of Len at No. 1 (+200) and Noel’s draft position at No. 2 (+350).

No. 2 Orlando Magic – Ben McLemore (Kansas)

Orlando needs some scoring and McLemore may be one of the purest shooters in the draft. He averaged nearly 16 points at KU and is listed at +155 to go second overall. His biggest competition for the No. 2 spot is Indiana guard Victor Oladipo, who is priced at +125 to go to the Magic.

No. 3 Washington Wizards – Otto Porter (Georgetown)

This pick just fits, with Washington grabbing the do-it-all forward from Georgetown. Porter was the Hoyas offense at times and is a gritty, hardworking complement to the flashy backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. He’s listed at EVEN money to go No. 3 to the Wiz.

No. 4 Charlotte Bobcats - Victor Oladipo (Indiana)

Oladipo gives Charlotte the most at his position, working his tail off on both ends of the floor. He can score and dazzle to put butts in the seats but also locks down perimeter threats, which wins close ball games. He’s presenting good value to go No. 4 at +300 or even beyond at +550 if the Bobcats go after Len or another big.

No. 5 Phoenix Suns – Trey Burke (Michigan)

Phoenix’s hunt for Steve Nash’s replacement takes only a year. Burke is a winner and a guy who isn’t afraid to make the big play. Many mocks have him slipping down the board but we’re talking about the National Player of the Year and an NCAA tournament runner-up. Books have him at -175 to go No. 5 or higher.

No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans – Alex Len (Maryland)

We’re not the only ones with Len sliding down this far and oddsmakers either have him going No. 1 (+200) or falling to No. 4 or farther (+240). He’s also a health risk, coming off surgery for a stress fracture in his foot. We could see the Pelicans grabbing the 7-footer and shopping him for an established point guard and some backcourt help.

No. 7 Sacramento Kings - C.J. McCollum (Lehigh)

McCollum is just another of the mid-major gems to highlight the draft in recent years, after not getting much attention in the Patriot League. He quietly scored just under 24 points per game before breaking his foot last season. Rumors suggest Sacramento is looking to retool its backcourt with draft day deals, so he could switch hats by the end of the night.

No. 8 Detroit Pistons – Anthony Bennett (UNLV)

Plenty of mock drafts have Bennett heading to Motown, including ESPN’s Chad Ford. Detroit needs a versatile small forward and the UNLV product has the skill set to score on the perimeter or on the blocks. However, it wouldn’t be a shocker to see Bennett go earlier, perhaps even to Washington at No. 3. He’s priced at EVEN money to go between No. 1-5 and -133 to be selected outside of the Top 5.

No. 9 Minnesota Timberwolves – Cody Zeller (Indiana)

Zeller’s physical presence could have him off the board by the time the T-Wolves are on the clock. Minnesota brought in the IU big man for a solo workout this spring and with Kevin Love’s future with the club a little wobbly, the Timberwolves may want an insurance policy under the basket.

No. 10 Portland Trail Blazers – Steven Adams (Pittsburgh)

Adams is among the many big men tempting teams in this year’s draft. But unlike some others, the Pitt product is one of only 13 players invited to sit in the green room Thursday night. He’s projected to go at No. 12 to OKC (via Toronto) by ESPN but Portland needs some size and grit in the paint, and will likely pass on Gonzaga’s Kelly Olynyk – which seems like the logical fit demographically - for Adams.

NBA Draft: Oddsmakers pick Noel to go No. 1

The 2013 NBA Draft will be held at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn on Thursday night and sportsbooks are slowly releasing props for the highly-anticipated event.

Here are a few being offered at Sports Interaction:

Player drafted first overall

Nerlens Noel -158
Otto Porter +225
Alex Len +300
Ben McLemore +1200
Victor Oladipo +1200
Trey Burke +3000

Kelly Olynyk draft position

First 15 picks +145
16th pick or later -208

Anthony Bennett draft position

First five picks +110
Sixth pick or later -158

Non-NCAA Euro players drafted in first round (Not including Alex Len)

Over 3.5 -133
Under 3.5 +220

Any non-NCAA Euro player drafted in Top 10 (Not including Alex Len)

Yes +250
No -385

Here is the complete draft order for the first round:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Orlando Magic
3. Washington Wizards
4. Charlotte Bobcats
5. Phoenix Suns
6. New Orleans Pelicans
7. Sacramento Kings
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
10. Portland Trail Blazers
11. Philadelphia 76ers
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Toronto)
13. Dallas Mavericks
14. Utah Jazz
15. Milwaukee Bucks
16. Boston Celtics
17. Atlanta Hawks
18. Atlanta Hawks (from Houston via Brooklyn)
19. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Los Angeles)
20. Chicago Bulls
21. Utah Jazz (from Golden State via Brooklyn)
22. Brooklyn Nets
23. Indiana Pacers
24. New York Knicks
25. Los Angeles Clippers
26. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis via Houston)
27. Denver Nuggets
28. San Antonio Spurs
29. Oklahoma City Thunder
30. Phoenix Suns (from Miami via L.A. and Cleveland)

Alouettes at Blue Bombers: What bettors need to know

Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+4, 51)

Dan Hawkins has some big shoes to fill. The new coach of the Montreal Alouettes will try to continue the success his team enjoyed under Marc Trestman when the Alouettes open the CFL season at the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Thursday. Trestman, who led Montreal to a 59-31 regular-season record and two Grey Cup wins in five campaigns, is now coaching the NFL’s Chicago Bears. Hawkins was unable to guide the Alouettes to victory in either of their preseason games, but will have a chance for his first CFL triumph against last year's weakest team in the East Division.

Following an appearance in the 99th Grey Cup, Winnipeg scored a league-low 376 points to finish the 2012 season with a 6-12 mark. The Blue Bombers’ offence did not fare any better in the preseason, managing just two field goals while allowing a total of 76 points in two contests. Winnipeg has reason for optimism - including a new stadium and the return of quarterback Buck Pierce, who missed most of last season due to multiple injuries. Pierce is the only quarterback on the roster with substantial CFL experience - but the Blue Bombers' preseason struggles are a familiar refrain.

Home underdogs were a profitable play in the CFL last season. Host teams getting the points went 11-9 SU but 14-6 ATS in 2012. Oddsmakers have tabbed the Blue Bombers as 4-point home underdogs for Thursday's Week 1 opener.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES: QB Anthony Calvillo is returning for his 20th CFL season. The 40-year-old threw for more than 5,000 yards three times during Trestman’s tenure. With his receiving corps - led by veterans Jamel Richardson and S.J. Green - largely intact, and RB Brandon Whitaker set to return from last year’s season-ending knee injury, Calvillo has all the tools at his disposal for another successful season.

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS: Construction delays pushed the opening of Investors Group Field - Winnipeg’s new home - back a full year, but the 33,422-seat stadium is finally ready to replace Canad Inns Stadium, the home of the Blue Bombers for the last 60 seasons. The change of scenery might do well for a Winnipeg squad that is largely unchanged from last year. The Blue Bombers allowed 531 points in 2012 and will have to be stronger on defence as long as their offensive struggles continue.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Winnipeg.
* Alouettes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Alouettes are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Winnipeg.
* Over is 21-8 in Alouettes last 29 road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Montreal posted a losing record on the road (4-5) in each of its last two seasons.

2. Despite Grey Cup appearances in 1992, 1993, 2001, 2007 and 2011, the Blue Bombers have not won a championship since 1990 - the longest drought in the CFL.

3. Calvillo holds the professional football record for career passing yards with 78,494 and has thrown a record 449 touchdown passes.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Mariners Wednesday.

Thursday it’s the Nationals. The deficit is 738 sirignanos.

Who's a good CFL capper?

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Toronto at Boston[/h] The Blue Jays look to build on their 9-2 record in their last 11 games as underdogs. Toronto is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+145). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Montreal at Winnipeg[/h] The Alouettes look to take advantage of a Winnipeg team that is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games in June. Montreal is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Thursday

Angels - Tigers over 8.5

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1049-789 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner THURS Red Sox w/ Lester

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

MLB CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE

Play On - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (BALTIMORE) average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start
105-49 since 1997. ( 68.2% 44.5 units )
7-7 this year. ( 50.0% -2.1 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE

BALTIMORE is 126-89 (+47.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.5) , OPPONENT (4.4)

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

WNBA PHOENIX at WASHINGTON

Play On - Home teams (WASHINGTON) after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 80 points or more in 2 straight games
36-16 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.2% 18.4 units )
0-3 this year. ( 0.0% -3.3 units )

WNBA PHOENIX at WASHINGTON

Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) after allowing 75 points or more in 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more
57-13 since 1997. ( 81.4% 0.0 units )

WNBA PHOENIX at WASHINGTON

Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 70.5 good foul drawing team - attempting >=20 free throws/game
196-116 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.8% 68.4 units )
4-3 this year. ( 57.1% 0.7 units )