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MIAMI -101 over Minnesota[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]

[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]12:40 PM EST. The Marlins continue to offer up some tremendous value because the data tells the oddsmakers that not many people are paying attention to this squad. In other words, of all 30 teams in MLB, no team has been bet less than the Marlins. Newsflash: Miami just went into San Fran and took three of four this past weekend. They returned home to beat the Twinkies last night and since May 31, the Marlins have won 13 of 22 games. Last weekend we mentioned that Tom Koehler’s 0-5 record and 5.09 ERA were some of most misleading numbers in the game. Koehler went out and defeated the Giants that day and he’s now 1-5 with a still misleading 4.65 ERA. Koehler’s unreasonable 60% strand rate is the only reason his ERA is above 4. Koehler has a very respectable 3.78 xERA to go along with an elite groundball rate of 53%. Koehler’s repertoire consists of an 87-93 mph fastball that he generally locates to both sides of the plate, a cutter, curveball, and solid-average change-up. This is a 27-year-old rookie that has paid his dues and that has learned his craft well over several seasons in the minors. He has the skills and poise to deliver consistency and reliability for years to come and he’s a much better pitcher than Scott Diamond will ever be.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Diamond is an unremarkable journeyman that has turned improved control and a groundball spike into a serviceable season so far. Mind-boggling quality/disaster starts over the past couple of years accompanies his weak strikeout rate. Reversal of strand% fortune caught up to him in second half last year and it’s beginning to catch up to him again this year. In Diamond’s first seven starts, his strand rate was 82%. His strand rate over his past six starts is a more normal 73% and over that span, his ERA is 5.81. Diamond’s 1.52 WHIP tells us all we need to know about this guy. When he wins, it’s pure luck because his skills are some of the worst in the league. Chances are that Diamond is back in the minors by the end of July where be belongs. This is not a major-league pitcher and he's wrongly being billed as the favorite here. [/FONT]
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Pittsburgh +137 over SEATTLE
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[FONT=arial !important]3:40 PM EST. Felix Hernandez is still rock solid and with some added command to boot. While he's as close to a 3.00 ERA lock as they come, there is a warning sign looming. Fastball velocity has decreased in five straight seasons, going from 96 mph in '07 to 91.5 mph this season. Given his workload at young age, it's a tidbit worth tucking away and utilizing when the situation calls for it, like this one does. The Pirates are playing too good to ignore in this price range against this host. The Pirates came in here last night and hung a nine on the Mariners for their fifth straight win. Pittsburgh has now scored 35 times over its last five games while going yard 12 times over that span. The Pirates are 17 games above .500 and just a game behind the Cardinals for first in the NL Central. It’s time to take this guest very seriously.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Jenamar Gomez is no Felix Hernandez and never will be. His K/BB ratio of 16/23 in 44 innings doesn’t exactly instill confidence. That said, Gomez has a 56% groundball rate, a 3.07 ERA and a 2-0 record. Sometimes things go one’s way for long stretches or even an entire season and that appears to be the case for Jeanmar Gomez. He won’t dominate but he faces an M’s squad that his last or damn near it in several key offensive categories. Gomez doesn’t have to dominate today or even have his best stuff to succeed against this weak-hitting opponent. Besides, this one has nothing to do with Gomez being on the hill. This is a simple case of good value on the visitor and we’re on it.[/FONT]
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DETROIT -1½ +141 over L.A. Angels
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[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Jose Alvarez is the rotation replacement for Anibal Sanchez, on the 15-day DL with a shoulder strain. Alvarez recorded a pure quality start in his MLB debut June 9, with 7 K’s and 1 BB in six innings against Cleveland and followed that up with another strong outing versus the Red Sox. In two starts covering 11 frames, Alvarez has struck out 10 and walked three. Alvarez was a star in his first season above Double-A. He has added a tick or two in velocity and has gotten hitters to chase his slow curveball, upping his K rate in the process. He now sits in the 88-92 mph range and can also throw a cutter, and excellent change-up. Changing speeds is one of his best attributes, but it has been the improvement of his curveball that has gotten him notice. Alvarez is also inducing more groundballs by keeping the ball low in the strike zone and it doesn’t hurt that the Halos have never seen him. The key here is not backing Alvarez but fading Tommy Hanson.

[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]If pitching through a slightly torn rotator cuff with concurrent strikeout rate loss and control jumps weren't enough to scare you away from Tommy Hanson this season, well, his results should. The former Braves rotation anchor's skills have suffered a dramatic decline over the past season-and-a-half. His fastball velocity since 2010, according to PITCHf/x: 92, 91 89, 88. Hanson’s strikeout rate has dropped correspondingly; Hanson simply isn't missing bats anymore. Another ominous sign is his elevated fly-ball% this season. Hanson’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates over his last five starts are a horrific 29%/23%/48%. We'd like to point to some sort of silver lining here but unfortunately there doesn't appear to be any. Hanson's arm clearly isn't right and the new arm slot he's been relegated to since the rotator cuff injury has left him a far less effective pitcher. No need to live in the past. Fade Hanson until further notice. Tigers’ hitter’s will be drooling all day waiting for this one to start.[/FONT]
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N.Y. Mets +120 over CHICAGO

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[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]John Danks has made just six starts since coming off the DL and he comes into this one with a 1-4 record and a 5.25 ERA. Last year, Danks’ season never got lift-off, as his final start was May 19. His skills took a dive, fueled by shoulder issues that ended in arthroscopic surgery in August. The reports say damage was minor but you can’t believe everything you read. Given diminished velocity, a little bit of rust, a fly-ball bias profile and the team he pitches for, as the chalk, Danks' is not appealing. [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

You have to be pretty good to be sporting a 0-9 record and still have your job and such is the case with Shaun Marcum. Over his last five starts covering 32 frames, Marcum has walked seven and struck out 33 batters. Marcum has an xERA of 3.51 and is certainly on the verge of a win. He’s been brutally hurt by a ridiculously low 55% strand rate and that’s the only reason he’s 0-9 with 5.76 ERA. The league average strand rate is around the 75% mark and once Marcum’s bad luck normalizes, his ERA will drop dramtically. Guys with elite control and strikeout rates like Shaun Marcum possesses do not go winless. Now is the time to buy low on this solid starter.[/FONT][/FONT]


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Dec 27, 2006
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Nice tip on the Marlins. First inning was rough, but the ticket was cash.

Loving the ball my Pirates are playing this season. Always enjoy the writeups sherwood. Keep up the great work!
 

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We got Football starting tomorrow ..............you know I love my Thursday night games !!
 

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If you see anything that peaks your interest Doug, let me know. When I have something really strong, I will post it with an *asterisk so be on the lookout for it. I usually have two or 3 of those a year.
 

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If you see anything that peaks your interest Doug, let me know. When I have something really strong, I will post it with an *asterisk so be on the lookout for it. I usually have two or 3 of those a year.

thanks ............like u 51 opening night a taste ...
 

Libatards Suck
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BOL tonight
 

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Takes guts to bet on teams like the Marlins and Mets. Well done.
 

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Takes guts to bet on teams like the Marlins and Mets. Well done.

Thanks Camy. Thing is with baseball, every team will win 60 and lose 60 games. There is rarely an exception to that and that's why I stress playing value.
 

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