2 Thursday w/analysis

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BALTIMORE -1½ +163 over Cleveland
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[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]We’ve been strong supporters of Corey Kluber the entire season up to now because, as we suggested, he was an undervalued pitcher. With a 6-4 record and a 1.68 ERA over his past three starts, the value on Kluber is gone and now we’re going to sell high on him. Kluber is having a great year but there are some glaring negatives in his skill set that insist he’s not as good as the numbers say. We'll start with the good: he’s only walked 13 batters in 71 frames and he’s missing plenty of bats with 69 K’s. The strikeout rate isn't just from one start either, as he's struck out 8+ hitters four times this season. The problem is his hit rate is elevated and has been for three years. Kluber is squeezing out of a lot of jams and his pitch count gets up there very quickly. He’s only averaging 5.1 innings per start. And note that only 14% of batted balls are hit softly. So he's allowing a lot of hitters to square up on the ball. Kluber’s 87% strand rate over his past six starts is also unsustainable and it’s only a matter of time before we see this guy blow up for an extended period of time. The Orioles square up as well as any team in baseball and Kluber could be in for a rough one here.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Miguel Gonzalez is the underpriced pitcher in this matchup. Gonzalez has quietly saw his skills soar in May and in June. His fastball velocity increased by nearly 1.0 mph from April to May and his swinging strike rate was an upper-tier 10.3%. Gonzalez offers up four quality offerings: a fastball anywhere from 89-94 MPH with an average of 91.2 MPH, a slider that he throws 11½% of the time, a curve 8.2%, a changeup 16.4% and a two seam FB that he throws 18% of the time. He’ll also throw any of them at any time, with or without the count in his favor. Gonzalez has a 0.89 WHIP over his last five starts, and a skill supported 3.75 ERA on the season. Lots of folks think that Miguel Gonzlez is all smoke and mirrors but they’re wrong. Truth is, Corey Kluber is serviceable but he’s the one that has been living a charmed life, not the opposite. The reward spotting 1½-runs is worth the risk. [/FONT]

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COLORADO -1½ +131 over N.Y. Mets
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Mets were at Coors earlier this year and were swept in a three-game set by scores of 11-3, 9-8, and 8-4. The Rockies have now defeated the Mets in seven straight games dating back to last year and this one isn’t likely to be any different. Furthermore, this is a make-up game for the Mets, who played a night game in Chicago yesterday and now have to play a 4:00 PM (local time) game here before returning home to host the Nationals starting tomorrow. It would be of no surprise to see the Mets field their “B” lineup here in this one-game trip to Colorado. Jeremy Hefner has strung together a decent year but he’s benefitted greatly from pitching half of his 14 starts at Citi Field. On the road, it’s a completely different tale for Hefner. On the road, Hefner’s ERA is 4.83 with a BAA of .281. He pitched one inning at Coors earlier in the year and we’re certain he hasn’t forgotten it because in that one inning he was taken yard twice. The Rockies' bats will be looking forward to being home, where they have an NL-best .286 BA and .814 OPS.
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Tyler Chatwood is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. In eight starts since taking over John Garland’s rotation spot, Chatwood has had one bad start and seven pure quality starts. That one poor start occurred in his first time out but since then, Chatwood has allowed two runs or fewer in seven straight starts. In four starts at Coors Field, he has not allowed a single HR and that’s due to his elite groundball rate of 60% on the year. Over his last five starts, Chatwood’s GB rate is 63%. Chatwood’s strikeout rate is improving (he struck out 18 batters in a recent 16-inning span) and his last four wins were by scores of 10-5, 5-0, 10-2 and 12-2. When he wins, he wins big and this is the perfect spot to extend that trend in.
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I would expect the Rockies to be in a foul mood after getting pushed around in Boston and losing seven of their last nine.
 

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How does being in a foul mood translate into being a better baseball player? I wish you luck tonight Sherwood, you are the single biggest influence on my sports wagering. Thank you.
 

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Great analysis on Mets vs Rockies. I was all over Rockies today because of the weird one game and travel that it entailed. Not to mention David Wright wasn't starting.
i am still in complete disbelief that the Rockies lost this game.
 

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