Service Plays Monday 7/1/13

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Rounding the bases: The best bets in the bigs

Every week we take a look at the hottest and coldest teams as well as the best over and under bets in Major League Baseball.

For the week of June 24-30.

Hot team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Last week: 5-0
Season: 51-30
Upcoming schedule: vs. Phillies, at Cubs

Skinny: The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to be the best bet in the bigs this season and have won nine straight games heading into a three-game set with the Phillies starting Tuesday.

Cold team: Chicago White Sox
Last week: 1-5
Season: 32-47
Upcoming schedule: vs. Orioles, at Rays

Skinny: The White Sox were blanked twice last week and have dropped five consecutive games heading into a series with the Balitmore Orioles.

Over team: Chicago Cubs
Last week: 6-0 over/under
Season: 39-38-3 over/under
Upcoming schedule: at A’s, vs. Pirates

Skinny: The Cubbies have played over the total in seven consecutive games and will open a three-game set with the Oakland A’s, who are one of the best over bets in the bigs (46-36-1 O/U), on Tuesday.

Under team: Tampa Bay Rays
Last week: 1-5 over/under
Season: 42-34-6 over/under
Upcoming schedule: at Astros, vs. White Sox

Skinny: The Rays took two of three from both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Detroit Tigers last week. Tampa has gone low in two straight and six and of its last seven games.

MLB betting: July good/bad month pitchers
By MARC LAWRENCE

Listed below are MLB hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of July.

On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33 percent or less of their efforts.

To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Mark Buehrle (10-5)

After a repugnant start to the season with his new team, Buehrle has lowered his ERA by over two runs and been a contributor to the Blue Jays turning around their season. With the warmer weather on the way, the left-hander is expected to use all four of his pitches and move them around the edges of the strike zone and win games as per usual.

Kevin Correia (10-4)

Correia is a bit of a dinosaur these days, with a fastball topping out in the high-80’s. What he does do for the teams he’s played for is keep them in games and more often than not places them in a position to win, something the right-hander has been very good at historically in this month.

Roy Halladay (10-3) DL

“Doc” has begun long tossing as part of his rehab for damaged wing and is expected back sometime in August for the Phillies.

Tim Hudson (12-5)

The Braves starter will turn 38 years old this month and is having a season more typical of when he first joined Atlanta in 2005, giving up quite a few home runs and not hitting his spots. Chances are Hudson will find a good groove, but needs more run support if he’s going to continue racking up wins in July.

Ian Kennedy (10-5)

Kennedy is back after serving his 10-game suspension for his part in the Diamondbacks/Dodgers brawl. To date, the Snakes righty has not been very good and though many of his peripherals are similar to the past, he’s given up 25 percent more home runs than his career average. Arizona needs Kennedy if it is to remain atop the NL West.

Clayton Kershaw (11-5)

It has certainly been an unusual year for Kershaw with a 6-5 record, in spite of being on pace for a career-lows in earned run average and opponents batting average. His problems have been giving up the big hit at the wrong time and the lack of support from the Dodger bats. Even a few runs would take the pressure off and let this 25-year-old stud get in his regular groove.

Rick Porcello (8-4)

Once thought to be ace material, Porcello is a back of the rotation hurler for Detroit. He’s a ground ball pitcher and the Tigers’ infielders cover the least amount of ground as any team in baseball according to fielding metrics, which beefs up his hits allowed. When Porcello is right, he wins a lot of 5-3 games, helping his club in the win column.

CC Sabathia (10-4)

It has not been business as usual for the big left-hander and if Sabathia is going to have a typical July, he has to keep the ball in the park. In 2012, he surrendered a career-worst 22 long balls and has conceded 17 already this year. The Yankees need the CC they are accustomed to seeing in the highly competitive AL East.

Jered Weaver (13-5)

It’s hard to fathom, even with an injury, Weaver enters this month with just one victory in 2013. However, do not be surprised if this number rises rapidly, as the Angels ace closed last month strong and his velocity has been rising to normal levels. With more speed on his four-seam fastball, the array of spinning sliders, slow curves and changeups keep opposing hitters off balance.


BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Bruce Chen (4-11)

After leading Kansas City in wins each of the last three years, Chen has been a fixture in the Royals bullpen this season.

Doug Fister (5-12)

Being supported by Detroit’s lineup card is a far better option than being backed by Seattle, Fister’s former team. This month has been extremely tough for the California native, as he’s seven games below .500 this month.

Jeremy Guthrie (5-12)

After a sensational start, Guthrie has witnessed his ERA jump from 2.28 on May 9, to 4.11 as July begins. The adjusted figure is more similar to his big league track record and the superior downward movement he had early on his fastball has dissipated, leaving more pitches up in the zone.

Bud Norris (4-11)

Pitching for the Astros since 2009 has not helped Norris when it comes to wins and losses. Houston is already listening to trade deadline offers for the 28-year-old who can be overwhelming at times. Yet for any pennant contender, Norris has an ERA of 5.49 the past three years on the road, which plays a factor in his miserable numbers in July.

Ricky Romero (4-12)

After a couple of ugly starts in early May, Romero was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo, trying to reboot his career.

L.A. baseball teams finally turning profits for bettors

Los Angeles baseball clubs, who were the worst bets in baseball for most of the season, are starting to turn profits.

The Dodgers have won eight of nine and the Angels are winners of six straight.

The Dodgers had put together six consecutive wins before getting routed 16-1 by the Phillies on Friday. Dodgers pitchers allowed only 2.33 runs per game during the six-game run and helped the under cash in four of the contests (2-4 over/under). Any $100 bettor would be up $687.36 if they had bet on each of the Dodgers' last nine games.

The Angels have been underachieving all season long, but could they be starting to turn the corner? The Halos have strung together six consecutive wins to move within four games of .500.

Any $100 bettor would be up $597.58 if they had bet on each game of the Angels' impressive run.

Jays don't give bettors reason to celebrate on Canada Day

The Rogers Centre will be a sea of red and white Monday with the sold-out home crowd celebrating Canada Day. The Toronto Blue Jays, who will sport their special red July 1 uniforms, take on the Detroit Tigers in Game 1 of a four-game set.

The Blue Jays haven’t been at their best on Canada’s birthday in recent years. In fact, they’ve lost three straight July 1 matchups heading into Monday’s contest.

Since 1999, Toronto is 5-9 on Canada Day, including a 3-3 record at home. If you wagered $100 on each of those 14 games, you’d be down -$310.64 and trading in your ice-cold Moosehead Cracked Canoe for a warm case of Laker Lager your uncle found in his old boat.

The Jays have been home for the holiday the past two seasons, losing 10-6 to the Los Angeles Angels last year and 7-6 to the Philadelphia Phillies in 2011. Both of those games played over the total.

Toronto is an even 7-7 over/under on July 1 (3-3 over/under at home) and has actually outscored opponents 72-67 over those 14 games, with an average of 9.93 combined runs in those contests against an average total of 9.28.

Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (7-8, 4.72 ERA) gets the call for Canada Day, coming off a two-hit shutout of the Tampa Bay Rays his last time out. The Blue Jays are 9-8 over/under in his 17 starts this season. He matches pitches with Tigers rookie Jose Alvarez (1-1, 3.78 ERA, 1-2 O/U).

Toronto is just 2-6 as a moneyline favorite on Canada Day since 1999, with a 3-3 mark as an underdog.

'Over' bettors cash big in CFL Week 1

The ‘over’ went a perfect 4-0 in Week 1 CFL openers,

The eight teams combined to score 277 points in Week 1 (69.25 points per game) with the Calgary Stampeders leading the way with 44 points in their opener against the BC Lions. The two clubs played 24 points over the 52-point total.

In fact, the four openers played over their respective totals by a combined average of 17 points.

Here are some of the biggest adjustments on the CFL futures board after Week 1:

Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 over/under)

Opened: +800
After Week 1: +400

The Roughriders destroyed the Edmonton Eskimos at Commonwealth Stadium, 39-18, on Saturday. The Green Riders received a 131 yard-effort from RB Kory Sheets and put four offensive TDs on the board. Saskatchewan’s focus now turns to its Week 2 home opener against the Calgary Stampeders.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 over/under)

Opened: +1700
After Week 1: +2200

Oddsmakers opened the Blue Bombers as the biggest underdogs in the league and their odds have tumbled further after falling 38-33 to the Montreal Alouettes in the season opener.

Joe Wiz

Bonus Play Monday Houston/Tampa Bay Under 9

TMC Sports Advisors 0701


Mellizos de Minnesota

Nacionales de Washington

Rojos de Cincinnati

Suerte

The Broker

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]San Diego at Miami[/h] The Marlins look to build on their 6-1 record in Jose Fernandez' last 7 starts against teams with a losing record. Miami is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-125). Here are all of today's picks.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1054-789 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner MON Tampa w/Moore

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Monday

Miami -135

Cappers Access

Mets -110
Blue Jays -140

Jeffrey James

PLAY OF THE DAY

Washington over Miwalukee

This one screams for Washington. The Nationals are going with Zimmermann who is 11-3 with an ERA of 2.28 while Gallardo is 6-7 with a 4.20 ERA. Milwaukee is terrible on the road this season and they are in mired in a very bad stretch right now. Zimmermann will be very ready to feast on the Brewers since in his last 2 starts he has given up only 2 runs in 15 innings of work. This one looks to be easily for Washington.

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

MLB ARIZONA at NY METS

Play Against - Home teams (NY METS) stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season against opponent terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season
218-163 over the last 5 seasons. ( 57.2% 72.5 units )
76-66 this year. ( 53.5% 10.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB TAMPA BAY at HOUSTON

HOUSTON is 13-9 (+11.8 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season.

The average score was: HOUSTON (4.0) , OPPONENT (3.7)

Hondo

Washington
Arizona

SportsWagers MLB 7/1/13



Milwaukee @ WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON -1½ +123 over Milwaukee


Jordan Zimmerman has been untouchable in nine home starts this season, going 8-0 with a 1.09 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 66 IP. Eight of those nine home starts have been pure quality. Zimmerman has been consistent all season long, evidenced by his 69%/0% dominant start/disaster start split. Enjoying his career best groundball percentage, control, and xERA, Zimmerman continues to build upon an already dynamic skill set. As July opens up, the Nationals are not in bad shape at all. They’re in second place just 6½ games back of the Braves and that’s after a first half of poor hitting but things are starting to fall into place. The Nats went off for 13 runs yesterday at Citi Field and scored six on Friday there as well. Last week in consecutive home games, the Nats scored six and seven runs respectively and over their last seven games they’re hitting .290 while scoring 38 runs. Today, Bryce Harper returns and his presence makes these Nationals instantly more dangerous. Milwaukee was just swept in Pittsburgh for its fifth straight loss. Over that span the Brewers scored 11 times and their frustration carried into yesterday’s 14-inning loss. Can’t imagine the plane ride to Washington was a festive one. The entire team is pressing at the plate and that’s not a good situation to be in when facing Zimmerman. Yovani Gallardo has posted a 1.59 ERA over his past three starts and that may have you believing he’s found “it” again after a tough start. Not so. Gallardo’s hit%, strand% and hr/f% are all pretty normal so it’s not been a case of bad luck. Those three key factors have combined to work against him, resulting in his 5.50 ERA. In retrospect, he’s never had elite-starter control except for the outlier of 2011 and 2013 has been no different with 36 walks in 99 frames. Gallardo’s velocity has declined in 2013, prompting a corresponding strikeout loss and he’s no longer getting swings and misses or fooling hitters within the strike zone. Few pitchers can be successful with a 29% line-drive rate. Gallardo isn’t as bad as his ERA indicates but with his skills slip and pitching for this unmotivated guest, he’s not a good rebound candidate. Let someone else believe the “buy low” hype.

Our Pick
WASHINGTON -1½ +123 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.46)

****


Detroit @ TORONTO
Detroit +125 over TORONTO

1:00 PM start time. R.A. Dickey is coming off his best game of the year, a complete game, two-hit shutout in Tampa. The Blue Jays have now won Dickey’s last three starts and they’ve won four of his last five but don’t believe that he’s regained the form that earned him a Cy Young Award last season. Dickey's 4.30 xERA over his last five starts and 4.45 xERA on the year is indicative of his volatility and also supports his 4.72 ERA, making him the poster boy of the risk/reward play. Detroit hitters have 39 hits in 105 career AB’s versus Dickey for a BA of .371 and overall this season, the Tigers own an excellent .282 BA and .781 OPS on the road. Lastly, at home, Dickey has been torched with a 6.02 ERA and it’s mostly because he can’t keep the ball in the park, as his 12 jacks allowed in 49 home innings will attest to. Jose Alvarez is Anibal Sanchez’s replacement and in three starts the kid has gone 1-1 with a respectable 3.78 ERA and an xERA of 3.79. He’s shown both good control (4 walks) and a good strikeout rate (13) in 17 innings so far. He also has a strong 46%/18%/36% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. It’s a small sample size and you can’t put much emphasis on what Alvarez has done but know this. Alvarez has his feet wet. He’s survived and he’s passed with flying colors his introduction into the big leagues. That’s something, and he has the talent to continue. Alvarez has thrown 288 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system in 2013, and it reveals that he has five pitches he’ll throw at any time, with his best attribute being that he’ll change speeds constantly. Alvarez uses a four-seam fastball (88-92mph), a change (76mph), a sinker (89mph), a slider (83mph) and a curve (74mph). The Jays have always had trouble with these types of pitchers so Alvarez has a good chance for a very decent game. This play is all about value in a toss-up game that the Tigers have as good a chance of winning as the Blue Jays.

Our Pick
Detroit +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

Power Play Wins

Play of the Day

Yankees