4 Tuesday w/analysis

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RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday110.00+0.46
Last 30 Days37400.00+11.06
Season to Date1221250.00+33.78

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All plays are 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS


Philadelphia +157 over PITTSBURGH
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The best record in baseball combined with a nine game winning streak has these Pirates grossly overvalued. Fading the Pirates over the next couple of weeks has tremendous profit potential and here’s why; A.J. Burnett (calf) has a Grade 1 tear in his right calf and can't put weight on the leg. He's wearing a walking boot and hopes 'it's not a six-week thing.' "Hopes" it's not a six-week thing is not very encouraging. The Pirates' rotation now consists of Francisco Liriano, Gerritt Cole, Jeff Locke, James McDonald & Charlie Morton for the time being. Given the first three are outpitching their xERAs by at least half a run (and 1.5 runs for Cole & Locke), Morton is just back from Tommy John surgery and McDonald walks as many as he strikes out, there could be some tough times ahead for the Pirates. Let’s also not forget that they won the last two games against the Brewers by identical 2-1 scores against some weak pitching. The Pirates .241 team batting average is 24th in the league. The Pirates record says they’re the best team in baseball. We say they’re the most overpriced team in baseball and you know these Phillies are going to come in focused and jacked up.
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Jonathan Pettibone’s 4.17 ERA and 1.42 WHIP is a direct result of his 6.85 ERA and 1.69 WHIP the first time he goes through lineups. Remove that and he would have outstanding numbers. That first time through the lineup mark is due to an unlucky 40% hit rate more than anything else but his base skills have been quite good in that scenario with a 52% groundball rate and very few walks. The 6’6” 225 pound righty has an ideal, lithe frame that he uses to his advantage. His velocity is good—89-94 mph fastball—but he uses his height and arm slot to throw downhill and keep the ball on the ground. Pettibone has been a consistent performer, thanks in large part to an ability to repeat his mechanics and throw strikes. He has excellent control of his pitches and he moves the ball in and out, up and down. His cutter and slider work well in tandem while his change-up is likely the best off-speed pitch in the Phillies rotation. This kid can pitch and he’s a far better option taking back this big a price than that imposter, Jeff Locke is spotting one. Locke may never be a -170 favorite again. Sell high.[/FONT]
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CINCINNATI -1½ +126 over San Francisco
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[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Between 2008-2011, Tim Lincecum was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He won back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2008 and 2009, while posting four-consecutive seasons with at least 200 innings pitched and in three of those seasons, he featured an ERA under 2.75. In short, he was dominant. He earned the nickname “The Freak” and became a media darling across the country with his face plastered everywhere. All of the praise and attention was certainly deserved. Only Cliff Lee compiled a better xERA (2.79) than Lincecum’s 2.81 amongst qualified starters in those four seasons and the right-hander also had the fourth-lowest ERA (2.81). That was then. This is now and Lincecum’s strong pedigree and popularity allows us to fade him at decent prices and that’s precisely what we’re going to do because this is truly a pitching mismatch in the Reds favor. Lincecum’s skills continue to erode at an alarming rate. This season, Lincecum has shown the least aggregate movement on his pitches among NL starters and it's not even close. His fastball is losing more velocity every month and it now averages just above 89MPH. Lincecum’s control and command continue to decline with a walk rate that has grown in each of the past four seasons and it’s now ballooned to an unreasonable 41 BB in 95 IP.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]His command is falling apart. It can be shown by his inability to throw pitches consistently in the strike zone. Perhaps the most disturbing number in Lincecum’s “dead arm” profile is his 28% line-drive rate. Velocity loss, line drive rate and too many walks combined with a complete lack of movement on his pitches says Tim Lincecum is in big trouble. Let someone else grasp at the shadows.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Homer Bailey has put up skills much better than his 4-6 record would indicate. His 69%/13% dominant start/disaster start points to how he has been consistently dominant this season. Bailey has been hurt by a low strand 66% strand percentage and if that rate was normal he’d likely have 10 wins. He's ramped up his strikeout rate by more than a strikeout per game while keeping walks to a minimum. (25/102 – BB/K’s in 102 IP). Bailey has improved his groundball % and avoided the HR problems that caused him trouble in the past. At 27, Bailey is in his prime and logged his first 200-inning season in 2012. He's followed that with a very good first half this season, though one in which his surface numbers don't reflect just how well he's pitched. With a good offense behind him and decent bullpen, Bailey is a good profit target that begins here against a Giants outfit that in the month of June, averaged only 3.3 runs per game, the lowest in MLB.[/FONT]
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N.Y. METS +121 over Arizona
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]We always like to come back on a hot team versus a cold one the day after a long, extra inning affair in which the cold team found a way to lose again. Up 4-3 with a run in 13th inning yesterday, the Diamondbacks pen blew it by giving up two runs in the bottom of the inning for their fourth straight loss and seventh defeat in their past eight games. Over their past four games, Arizona has been outscored 25-11. Over their past 10 road games, the Snakes have one win. Patrick Corbin’s 9-0 record and 2.22 ERA make it hard to recall the spring training hubbub surrounding the Diamondbacks’ fifth starter competition. His 47% ground ball rate and his strikeout rate are pretty much the same as they were in 2012. Corbin's current 3.57 xERA isn’t far off last year's mark either, but fewer struck balls are finding holes (27% H%) and his strand rate of 81% is unsustainable. With virtually the same skills as last season when Corbin posted an ERA 0f 4.54 in 107 innings, some ERA regression is forthcoming. The 23-year-old southpaw is good but he’s not THIS good and now he’ll pitch with his club having caught the losing bug.
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Here’s an oddity that doesn’t make sense; New York is 11-4 on the road against lefties but just 4-10 at home. Logic says those numbers will even out over the course of 162 games. Here’s another oddity; Jeremy Hefner is 0-3 at home. Why is that odd you ask? Well, Hefner has been outstanding at home with a 2.93 ERA over seven starts. In fact, Hefner had a fantastic 1.80 ERA in 30 IP during June and his skills were great. In June, Hefner struck out 23 and walked five with a 52% groundball rate. In his last start in Colorado, Hefner was brilliant in six innings, allowing just one earned run on five hits. The Mets have won Hefner’s last three starts. Each of his skills has shown a steady growth (more strikeouts, fewer walks, higher groundball %, lower line-drive %) and now it’s time for this solid starter to get his first illusive home win.[/FONT]
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Chicago +172 over OAKLAND
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[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]After burying the Cardinals and Reds in back-to-back series with four wins in five games and scoring five or more in each win, the A’s stock is soaring right now, thus creating this overlay. Indeed the A’s have to be taken seriously but with A.J. Griffin on the mound in a letdown spot after a three-game set against St. Louis, we’ll gladly accept this generous offer. Griffin is coming off a complete game, two-hit gem against Cincinnati but a repeat of that is highly unlikely. Griffin has just nine pure quality starts in 16 tries this season, meaning almost half of his games are a struggle. Griffin is a fly-ball pitcher (33%/49% - GB/FB) which is always a risk because of the home run propensity that comes from having a fly-ball bias profile He’s already allowed 15 jacks this year in 102 frames and that includes three in one game to the Astros. Griffin does have an outstanding curveball and that is the pitch that keeps him at this level. If that curveball isn’t sharp, Griffin has no shot of success and as a -190 favorite, that’s a risk that can’t be recommended.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

The Cubs continue to offer up outstanding value, as they did in Seattle when they took two of three and would’ve swept had it not been for a blown save in the opener. The Cubbies have now won six of their past nine games. They scored 16 runs at Petco in the three-game set and have scored five of more in five of their past seven. Scott Feldman comes in with an xERA of 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over his last five starts. Feldman’s actual ERA of 3.46 comes with full skills support. He has an outstanding 51%/16% groundball/line-drive rate, a decent strikeout rate of 67 batters in 91 frames and he’s only walked six batters over his past 30 innings. A good spot for the Cubbies and the good form they are in make them a very appealing big dog here in a game they certainly have a chance in.
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No Cubs bet is a no-go. I will post the scouting report on Feldman's replacement shortly.
 

RX Member from The Windy City!!
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May 31, 2013
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Rusin is TRASH my friend, TRASH. Take it from this diehard Cubs fan
 

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<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:punctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-CA</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <w:DontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> <w:UseFELayout/> </w:Compatibility> <w:DoNotOptimizeForBrowser/> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> Chris Rusin (LHP, CHC)


Chris Rusin has been recalled from Triple-A to make his major league debut in this spot start against the A’s tonight. Rusin is a tall and athletic pitcher who was selected in the fourth round of the ’09 draft. He has a rather ordinary repertoire, but has the ability to throw consistent strikes and deceive hitters with a tricky delivery. His fastball only sits between 86-91 mph, but he effectively mixes in a solid-average curveball that he can drop in the zone for strikes. While he doesn’t profile as a strikeout pitcher, he keeps the ball down in the zone and generates groundball outs. Rusin is particularly strong against left-handed hitters due to his breaking ball, but his change-up is far from a polished product. The key for him is to command his fastball early in the count and then use his curveball to induce weak contact. Rusin has limited upside, but has good durability. He has a career 3.71 ERA in 538 minor league innings. Rusin is a typical crafty lefty that also has an outstanding pickoff move, making him tough to run on. With a .272 BAA at Triple-AAA Iowa and a 4.59 ERA, he cannot be recommended at this time.
STATS: Iowa (AAA) – 24 gs, 8-8. 4.59 ERA, 110 IP – 99H - 22/63 BB/K - 16 HR, .272 oppBA
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Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
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Tokens
ONE PLAY ADDED tonight

Detroit -1½ +115 over TORONTO
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Late selection here due to some crippling injuries on the Blue Jays that can’t be compensated for. Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion have both been ruled out and not available for tonight’s game. J.P. Arencibia is also hurt and although he’s available, he’s likely not starting. With Lind, Encarnacion and Arencibia out, the Tigers can pitch around Jose Bautista all night if the situation calls for it and without some run support for Chien-Ming Wang, the Jays could be in serious trouble here. Wang went 2-3 with a 6.68 ERA in 32 IP for Washington last year. The Nats took a shot on him as an emergency starter and the Jays are doing the same. Wang hasn't eclipsed 100 IP since '07. In four starts with the Jays, covering 22 frames, Wang has a BAA of .322 and a WHIP of 1.57. He’s also walked seven and struck out just 10. A return to the DL or back to the minors is more likely for Wang than a return to relevance.


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[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Meanwhile, Doug Fister’s base skills have been off the charts since late April that include a 56% groundball rate and just 16 walks in 103 frames. Fister is an undervalued gem He has settled in nicely in Detroit, transforming from injury-prone soft-tosser to top-end rotation material over the span of two seasons and there is nothing in his profile that says fluke. Huge mismatch here both offensively and on the hill in the Tigers favor.
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Rx God
Joined
Nov 1, 2002
Messages
39,226
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pretty wild game between Detroit and Toronto. I went with over and first 5 over basically fading Wang. This game might get to 20 runs !
 

Libatards Suck
Handicapper
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Sep 21, 2004
Messages
3,578
Tokens
BOL tonight Sherwood
 

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