SportsWagers
Today's Free Picks for Jun 03, 2013
| Season to Date | 124 | 126 | 0.00 | +36.72 |
(2-1 Yesterday)
Cleveland @ KANSAS CITY
Cleveland +102 over KANSAS CITY
The Indians are heating up again with five wins in a row while scoring 42 runs over that span. That’s likely bad news for Jeremy Guthrie. After spending time in Colorado and Baltimore, Guthrie seems to be enjoying the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium. After some struggles in launching pads last year, he’s settled in as a regular part of the Royals’ rotation. His success since coming over to the Royals doesn’t mean he’s playable, it means he’s overvalued. With a low hit% and high strand% you can expect some ERA regression over the rest of the year. Guthrie has never been a big strikeout guy and this season his strikeout rate is almost laughable with just 49 in 101 innings. Combined with more walks (36) his command has dropped to an unacceptable level. Guthrie’s groundball rate is also on the decline with a rate of just 37% over his last eight games, down from 43% in his first eight. Guthrie has an xERA of 6.31 and if there ever was a sure thing for ERA regression, Guthrie is it. He may not last four innings here.
Scott Kazmir’s 4.83 ERA and 1.42 WHIP are not going to jump off the page but his base skills have been extremely good. Kazmir has 66 K’s in 69 innings to go along with a 43% groundball rate. His line-drive rate is also outstanding at 14% over his last five games. Kazmir is coming off back-to-back one-run, seven inning gems against Minnesota and Baltimore and he’ll now face a Royals team that has just seven wins in 21 decisions against southpaws. The take back is small but the overlay is huge because the Indians should be in the -140 range. Wrong side favored.
Our Pick
Cleveland +102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.08)
****
Philadelphia @ PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia +150 over PITTSBURGH
At the time of this writing the line for this game had not posted yet but it looks like it’ll be John Lannan going for the Phillies against Jeanmar Gomez of the Pirates. We’ll figure on Gomez or Jeff Locke and the price to be somewhere in this range. We mentioned yesterday how the Pirates might be a good fade over the next couple of weeks because their best record in baseball makes them the most overvalued team in baseball. The Pirates rotation is turning into a mess with A.J. Burnett out and every other starter out-pitching their ERA by a significant margin. The Pirates have been able to compensate by scoring some runs by that’s unlikely to continue also. Over their past 20 games, Pirates' batters have struck out 180 times, which is the most in MLB over that stretch. The Phillies came in here last night and took the opener and broke Pittsburgh’s nine-game winning streak. What often follows a long winning streak after a loss is another loss and there’s little in Gomez’s skill set that suggests otherwise. Gomez enjoyed his best outing of the season last time out as he returned from the DL (forearm) to pitch five scoreless innings against Seattle. A repeat is unlikely here considering Gomez's poor command, low strikeout rate and 4.59 xERA. Gomez has pitched more than five innings just once in eight starts with a maximum pitch count of only 81, so chances of a win or quality start aren't very high. Gomez’s minor-league numbers hide his ugly, beneath the hood, major league stats history. xERA, command, and dominant start/disaster start splits are all telling you to stay away.
John Lannan is risky too. He’s never been consistent enough to last in any starting rotation but when he’s on his game, he can be very tough. Lannan has always had an elite groundball rate and this year is no different with a rate of 52%. Besides, Lannan isn’t the one spotting a significant tag here. We missed an opportunity last night when we pulled out of the first game of this series after a pitching change was made. That substitution did not change the fact that the Pirates were overvalued, just like they are again today. So whether it’s Jeff Jocke or Jeanmar Gomez today, the play is the Phillies and we’ll update it as soon as the line comes out.
Our Pick
Philadelphia +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)
****
Seattle @ TEXAS
Seattle +115 over TEXAS
Felix Hernandez needs no introductions. Hernandez continues to be a sure-fire ace. He has posted five consecutive sub-3.50 ERA seasons and a sub-1.15 WHIP in three of the last four seasons. His skills also remain elite and any time a tag is offered on King Felix, one must, at the very least, give the Mariners a close look because they always have a great chance of winning when this guy takes the hill. Hernandez faces a Rangers lineup that is no longer an offensive force. Over their past 20 games, the Rangers are hitting a measly .244 and their 69 runs scored over that span is the fifth worst in MLB.
The Rangers are in this price range because their ace, Derek Holland gets this start. Holland has a 3.14 ERA in 16 starts and he’s also coming off a two-hit, complete game gem in New York against the Yankees. However, there are several cautionary flags pointing in Holland’s direction. In July of last year, Holland suffered from shoulder fatigue and as a result his fastball dipped from 94.1 to 90 MPH. His skills tanked along with his velocity and we could see him suffer a similar fate this year. Additionally, Holland has been awful at home over his last four starts, surrendering 35 hits over 22 innings but getting extremely fortunate with an 84% strand rate which led to just 14 runs against. Holland is getting smacked around at home and he could also suffer a letdown here after that gem in New York, a place he wanted to thrive in because of an extremely poor history there. He had something to prove in New York. The Mariners came in here last night and won 9-2 with Joe Saunders pitching. Nuff said.
Our Pick
Seattle +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)
****
Chicago @ OAKLAND
Chicago +174 over OAKLAND
Another blown save last night prevented the Cubs from winning their seventh game in the past 10. They also blew a save on Friday in Seattle. Conceivably, the Cubbies could be on a serious run had it not been for those two blown saves. Chicago scored another seven runs last night and has now scored five runs or more in six of their last eight games. The Cubs’ offense combined with this price tag make them very playable here with Matt Garza on the hill. Garza now looks to be hitting his stride after an early string of shaky starts after returning from the DL in late May. Garza has given up just two earned runs in his last three outings along with a 23/5 K/BB in 22 innings compared to a 6.26 ERA in his first five starts.
Bartolo Colon continues to defy logic. Here’s a guy that’s 40-years old, is 40 pounds overweight, has a below average strikeout rate, has a fly-ball bias profile and yet he’s 11-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 5-0 over his last five starts with an ERA of 1.75. Colon, at the age of 40, is posting better surface numbers than guys like Steve Carlton, Ron Guidry, Roy Halliday, John Smoltz and Sandy Koufax were posting in their prime. He’s also posting better surface stats than current aces like Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. We’re never going to get the money back we’ve lost fading Colon this year so this has nothing to do with chasing it. The fact is, Colon is average at best, he’s grossly overvalued and if he beats us again, so be it. Value is value and that absolutely applies here.
Our Pick
Chicago +174 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.48)
****
Los Angeles @ COLORADO
Los Angeles -1½ +155 over COLORADO
The Rockies have played five consecutive games at home. The most runs they’ve scored over that span were four and that occurred against Barry Zito’s 11.25 road ERA. Take out that lame offensive performance and the Rocks have scored two or fewer in each game. Overall, Colorado has scored four runs or less in seven straight. Last night they were buried 8-0 in the opener of this series and things don’t figure to get much better here with Tyler Chatwood going. Chatwood presents plenty of risk at Coors Field against the Dodgers despite being 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA on the season. Chatwood rode an 82% strand rate and 0% hr/f in June to a 2.14 ERA last month but his 4.66 xERA and 1.30 WHIP are skeptical that the good results will continue. Also going against Chatwood are poor results in both 2011 and 2012. Chatwood's nine walks and 11 K’s over his past four starts highlights the risk even more here when the regression comes calling. Against the red-hot Dodgers, that inevitable regression likely begins.
Zack Greinke has been a fraction of his former self. He used to be counted on for a pure quality start nearly every time out but since some health issues that has not been the case. That said, he can still deliver the goods and appears to be coming around. Over his last five starts, Greinke is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.18 and an xERA of 3.46. Over that span, he’s struck out 28 and walked nine in 34 frames and his groundball rate has increased from 39% to 45%. The Dodgers have won nine of 10 and over their past 20 games, L.A is in the top five in several offensive categories. The Dodgers can’t wait to get back to the park here while the Rockies are swinging at and missing everything these days. A savvy skilled vet like Greinke should have another strong outing here against a collective group of hitters that are pressing.
Our Pick
Los Angeles -1½ +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)
