| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 2 | 0.00 | +4.88 |
| Last 30 Days | 41 | 38 | 0.00 | +26.48 |
| Season to Date | 127 | 128 | 0.00 | +41.60 |
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All Games are for 2 units with the exception of the Orioles. Baltimore is 2.16 units to win 2.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Baltimore -108 over CHICAGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The White Sox have lost six of their last seven games. Their 305 runs scored this season is last in the AL and second last in the entire league, ahead of only the Marlins. The Orioles are a small price here because when you look at Zach Britton’s career numbers and stats, including this year’s four starts, they are not pretty. Britton has a career ERA of 4.72 and a career WHIP of 1.50. He continues to walk too many batters and in fact, he has more BB’s (11) this year than K’s (9) in 22 frames. It’s been rumored that when Wei-Yin Chen returns, he’ll be sent back down to the minors and if that’s not enough motivation to perform well, nothing is. Thing is, Britton has all the talent in the world to thrive. He has some of the nastiest stuff in the league with a sinkerball that is almost unhittable. Britton has a 59% groundball rate. He can be brilliant or dreadful and it all boils down to whether or not he can throw strikes. If he’s on, the South Side will once again be made to look foolish at the plate and that’s a risk worth taking because unlike the White Sox, the Orioles can score runs.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Orioles 117 jacks is tops in the league. Baltimore is in the top three in several offensive categories and should have little trouble scoring a few on Jose Quintana. With men on base, Quintana has an alarming 15% HR/fly-ball rate and that’s not a good number to back when facing the best home-run hitting team in the majors. Baltimore has won five of six while scoring 30 times over those five wins. They should easily score four or more here and that along with the current form of these two clubs make the Orioles very appealing spotting less than a dime. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Milwaukee +152 over WASHINGTON
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]11:05 AM EST. The Brewers have won two in a row over the Nationals and have held Washington to one earned run over those two games. This pitching matchup is the most favorable of them all for the Crew and the tag on them is bordering on ridiculous. Taylor Jordan was shaky in his MLB debut, needing 84 pitches to make it through 4.1 innings. He is an average prospect (see our MLB June call-ups for complete scouting report on him) who has never pitched above Double–AA ball prior to his promotion. Jordan was greeted with a quick hook in his debut against the Mets and you can expect the same when he finds trouble in this start against a much tougher lineup than the one he faced in New York.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Donovan Hand has appeared in 11 games for the Brewers this year with all but two of those being in relief. In his season starting debut on June 22, he went 4.2 shutout innings against Atlanta and allowed just two hits. He followed that up with a full five-inning start against Pittsburgh on June 29 and allowed five hits and two earned runs.
In 24 innings overall, Hand has walked just three batters while striking out 14. Hand is a control specialist with an elite groundball rate of 57%. Hand isn’t a hard-thrower by any means but he effectively changes speeds and keeps the ball down with his 85-91 mph sinker. He rarely gets taken yard and he does not get rattled. Hand and the Brewers offer up some tremendous value here against an unproven rookie that has a long, long way to go.[/FONT]
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Philadelphia +115 over PITTSBURGH[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[FONT=arial !important]Cole Hamels is going to wake up this morning and have a look at the betting line, like every other major league pitcher and see that he’s a +115 dog against a rookie with four MLB starts in his career. Ya think he’s gonna be a little extra jacked up here? We do. Gerrit Cole is 4-0 with a 3.70 ERA but there are several signs that insist his winning streak is about to end. Cole has just 11 K’s in 24 innings and was extremely lucky in his last start against Milwaukee when he walked three, struck out three and allowed eight hits and three runs in six innings. His WHIP for that game was 1.83 but the Brewers could not throw that knockout punch despite having Cole on the ropes in just about every inning. Cole has an xERA of 4.50 and 4.85 over his past two starts and although he pitches for the Pirates, he does not deserve this billing over Hamels.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
This is a great matchup for Hamels against a Pirates team that doesn't hit left-handed pitching well (.231 BA, .684 OPS). Hamels comes in with an ugly 2-11 record and 4.58 ERA but it’s been a case of pure bad luck since May 1 for him. His under the surface stats say this guy is throwing as good as ever right now. Over his last five starts, Hamels has struck out 33 batters in 32 innings. His xERA over that span is an elite 3.13 but he was victimized, as he has been all season by an abnormally low 67% strand rate. Cole Hamels is a true ace with strong skills right across the board. His two wins make him one of the biggest buy low targets in MLB and we’re not about to miss this opportunity.
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