Service Plays Friday 7/5/13

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Tigers' Scherzer climbs MLB money rankings with 13-0 start

Detroit Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer has earned bettors +8.20 units en route to MLB’s first 13-0 start in 27 years.

The Tigers right-hander picked up win No. 13 with a seven-inning, two-run effort in Detroit’s 6-2 win over the Toronto Blue Jays as a -128 road favorite Wednesday. The Tigers are 14-3 overall in Scherzer’s 17 appearances, which include four no-decisions.

He’s the first pitcher to start the schedule 13-0 since Roger Clemens won 14 outings without a loss with the Boston Red Sox in 1986 and is just the third starter to post that record in the past 100 years, joining Clemens and Ron Guidry of the New York Yankees in 1978. Those two went on to win the Cy Young Award that season.

Scherzer, who ranks seventh on the MLB money pitchers list, has been a moneyline favorite in all 17 of his 2013 starts. Last year, he posted a 16-7 record, earning +6.84 units in 32 starts.

Detroit is 8-9 over/under in Scherzer’s 17 trips to the bump this year.

Football Jesus Free CFL pick : Saskatchewan RR

Stamps at Roughriders: What bettors need to know

Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-2, 54)

The Calgary Stampeders emerged from Week 1 as the top-ranked team in the CFL following a dominant showing at home against the BC Lions. The Stampeders (1-0) will try to defend their ranking when they visit the Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0) on Friday. Saskatchewan, which is ranked fourth, is also off to a strong start after controlling its game against the Edmonton Eskimos from the opening kickoff despite missing new addition Geroy Simon on offense.

Calgary defeated the Roughriders 36-30 in the West Semi-Finals last year en route to an appearance in the 100th Grey Cup in Toronto. Saskatchewan will host this year’s Grey Cup, adding extra weight to its home opener. The Roughriders kept the Eskimos out of their end zone through three quarters last week, a defensive showing they would be happy to duplicate against the high-octane Stampeders offense.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (1-0): Defensive lineman Charleston Hughes and running back Jon Cornish both received player of the week honors after their strong showing in Week 1. Hughes, who was named defensive player of the week, led Calgary with three sacks. Cornish, who was named the top Canadian player, ran for a league-best 172 yards and two touchdowns. Cornish, who also caught one pass for 20 yards, pledged to donate $10 to Calgary flood relief for every yard he earned in the game, totaling $1,920 that he rounded to an even two thousand dollars after the game.

ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (1-0): Running back Kory Sheets paced Saskatchewan’s offense in Week 1, carrying the ball 17 times for 131 yards and one touchdown. Sheets’ effective running opened up the field for slotback Chris Getzlaf, who caught three passes for 67 yards and a touchdown. Getzlaf only had two touchdowns last season. Getzlaf’s resurgence and the impending return of Simon from injury crowds a backfield that already includes 2012 CFL All-Star slotback Weston Dressler. Rookie defensive lineman Levi Steinhauer, who is from nearby Moose Jaw, Sask., forced two fumbles in his CFL debut.

TRENDS:

* Stampeders are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Saskatchewan.
* Over is 10-1 in Stampeders’ last 11 games overall dating back to last season.
* Roughriders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Week 2 games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Calgary defeated Saskatchewan in three of four meetings last year - including the West Semi-Final. Cornish was held to just 67 rushing yards in the Roughriders' only victory.

2. Stampeders QB Drew Tate showed no ill effects of last year’s injury-riddled campaign last week, throwing for 237 yards and three touchdowns.

3. Saskatchewan released WR Greg Carr on Tuesday after he caught one pass for five yards in the season opener.

Strategies for betting MLB team totals

Baseball is front and center in the betting world for the next couple months, so it's a good time to review MLB betting strategies.

Here are a few MLB team totals betting tips from an article recently published by Pinnacle Sports:

1) Gauging the juice

There is generally not enough action for books to deal these lines as sharp as they would a total or a runline. The key is to make sure you’re getting a good number and take solace in the fact you’re giving these lines more attention than the book is.

2) Common mistakes in calculating team totals

Myth: The two team totals should add up to the total for the game.

The article reads:

“If both teams will score 5 or more runs exactly half the time, meaning both teams have a fair Team Total of 4.5, you could safely bet the game to go over 9.5 at even money even though the Team Totals only add up to 9. That’s the way runs are distributed. It’s possible to score 24 runs in a game, but it’s impossible to score less than 0.”

3) Over or Under while playing team totals?

If the two team totals add up to a half run less than the game total, it’s a good idea to bet the under as long as the combined juice is small.

The article reads:

“Squares often bet with an unfounded optimism on what they’d like to see happen i.e. plenty of runs, and not what is most probable.”

4) Soft Lines

If a bettor wagers the mathematically incorrect side of a team total, especially if this happens twice, chances are this will move the line and cause it to present value. Sometimes, you may be lucky enough to find a line that has gone in the opposite direction of the main betting lines.

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Atlanta at Philadelphia[/h] The Phillies look to take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 0-8 in Tim Hudson's last 8 road starts. Philadelphia is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Calgary at Saskatchewan[/h] The Roughriders look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games in Week 2 of the season. Saskatchewan is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-1). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1058-790 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner 8-1 run FRI Oak A's -135

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Friday

Orioles -118

Joe Wiz

Bonus Play Friday Oakland/Kansas City Under 9

Cappers Access

Cubs +135
Rays(RL) -1.5(+100)

bookiemonsters

Paul Leiner

100* Mets +105

50* Angels -145

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

MLB MIAMI at ST LOUIS

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (MIAMI) with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, in July games
96-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.7% 45.5 units )
3-4 this year. ( 42.9% -4.9 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB BALTIMORE at NY YANKEES

BALTIMORE is 17-6 (+12.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season.

The average score was: BALTIMORE (5.0) , OPPONENT (3.7)

CFL

Week 2

Calgary (1-0) @ Saskatchewan (1-0)—Stampeders (-3.5) beat BC Lions 44-32 at home last week, winning opener for home fans dealing with horrible flood in their town; Calgary ran ball for 200 yards, outgained Lions by 82 yards- they won three of four vs Riders LY, splitting pair here- they scored 30+ points in all three wins, lost 17-10 in one of two visits to Regina. Saskatchewan’s win in Edmonton last week snapped 5-game losing skid from LY; Riders lost last two games on Taylor Field, are 3-4 overall in last seven at home- they were outgained by 64 yards in Edmonton last week, but were +4 in turnovers. Last eight Calgary games, five of last six Roughrider games went over the total.

Power Play Wins

Play of the Day

Athletics

Hondo

The Rockies spared Hondo a triple-flusher last night, taking care of business against the Dodgers to partially offset his earlier losses with the Pirates and Indians and put the deficit at 1,010 wynns.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch hopes to hear a lot of cheers for Cliffy — on Lee and the Phillies.