[h=1]Best value bets for UFC 162[/h][h=3]Silva is undefeated, but value may be on Weidman on Saturday night[/h]
By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
UFC 162 will carry that unique mystique that accompanies an event that could be history in the making. Anderson Silva, arguably the greatest pound-for-pound fighter in the world, will be defending his middleweight belt for the 10th time, this time against surging contender Chris Weidman, who seems to have many of the tools that make him a bona fide matchup problem for Silva. In addition, Frankie Edgar looks to regain his dominant form against youngster Charles Oliveira in the featherweight division.
Let's break down the odds and statistics behind the Saturday night fights to see where the value lies.
<center>[h=3]Anderson Silva (minus-230) vs. Chris Weidman (plus-180)[/h]</center>
If you just took the odds as an indication, Weidman will pose the biggest threat in recent history to finally ending Silva's undefeated run in UFC. The reason, perhaps, is the combination of an aging champion -- Silva is 38 years old, compared to Weidman at 29 -- and a challenger who has the perfect skill set to pull off a gigantic upset in the middleweight division.
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After Silva's first fight with Chael Sonnen, it was apparent that Silva had an exploitable weakness in defending the takedown and staying on his feet against a competent wrestler. By successfully landing four out of 11 takedowns in two fights, Sonnen in effect designed the blueprint for how to defeat Silva. This especially was true because Sonnen, in the first fight, was able to convert these takedowns into top position, which Sonnen held for most of the fight, or at the very least the rounds in which he put Silva on his back.
With Weidman possessing a similar pedigree, the former NCAA All-American wrestler from Hofstra has been able to land an incredibly high 4.47 takedowns per 15 minutes in his undefeated nine-fight career. But Weidman also has an active submission game, attempting 1.38 submissions per 15 minutes and winning three fights in this manner from top position. In addition, one of Weidman's most impressive statistics is his ability to dominate in grappling matchups, with a perfect 100 percent takedown defense in his career.
Silva is one of MMA's most dangerous fighters standing up, holding the record for knockdowns landed with 17, so it's unlikely that Weidman will leave this fight standing for long. Given that he never has been on the wrong end of a grappling match, Weidman surely will use his wrestling ability to put Silva on his back and employ Sonnen's game plan. With Weidman also possessing the ability to close out the fight via submission, consider him, as a sizable plus-180 underdog, a good bet to finally bring the aging veteran's reign to a close.
Insider value pick: Weidman
<center>[h=3]Frankie Edgar (minus-550) vs. Charles Oliveira (plus-425)[/h]</center>
As the man who essentially sent UFC legend BJ Penn into semi-retirement, Edgar somehow has found himself in the odd position as one of the most underrated fighters in MMA. Due to three close decision losses that all occurred in title fights (but easily could have gone in his favor), he comes into this fight at a lower weight class on a three-fight losing streak.
Edgar is one of the most prolific strikers in UFC history, having the sixth-most significant strikes landed of all time (827). But while Edgar is best known for his ability to set an exhausting pace on his opponents and win exchanges, Oliveira actually enters this fight with a higher average strikes landed per minute rate than Edgar -- 3.73 SLpM to 3.23 SLpM, respectively. Oliveira also impressively has landed these strikes at a more efficient rate than Edgar (46 percent to Edgar's 38 percent).
The difference, however, comes in Edgar's ability to fluidly move in and out of the pocket, taking minimal damage. Edgar takes less damage, with a SApM rate of 2.22 to Oliveira's 2.62, and successfully defends an incredibly high 72 percent of strikes compared to Oliveira's 65 percent. Edgar's ability to avoid being finished also somewhat negates one of Oliveira's biggest strengths -- his high 3.65 submissions per 15 minutes rate, which he has used to gain nine submission victories.
However, despite his seeming superiority, the reason Edgar isn't a great value is that Oliveira can inflict serious damage, and he's just 23 (Edgar is 31). With Oliveira's ability progressing with each successive fight, this might not be a walk in the park for Edgar. But he should have the experience and superior ability to gain his first win since 2011. With too many variables possibly at play, consider the minus-550 odds in Edgar's favor exactly where they should be and stay away from this fight.
Insider value pick: Stay away
<center>[h=3]Gabriel Gonzaga (minus-250) vs. Dave Herman (plus-190)[/h]</center>
Herman hasn't exactly inspired confidence in fans and bettors in his past three outings. He was finished in each of them and, even worse, showed a seemingly careless game plan, so it might seem counterintuitive for him to be a trustworthy value at all. He also failed a drug test after his most recent fight and faces the formidable Gonzaga, who is fighting for his UFC life.
Despite his recent reputation of being unreliable, Herman's overall MMA record is more than impressive. Before dropping the past three against some of the top talent in the heavyweight division, Herman was a respectable 21-2, with one of the two losses coming via disqualification due to illegal knees. In addition, one of Herman's most impressive statistics is that 15 of his 21 wins have been by KO/TKO, showing the propensity to land heavy hands and finish fights definitively.
Big power has been a huge problem for Gonzaga, who also has been inconsistent. Six of Gonzaga's seven career losses have come by KO/TKO, so he's been more than susceptible to knockout artists such as Herman. Add to this the fact that Herman lands almost double the strikes per minute (4.43 to 2.33) and it's likely Herman has the edge over Gonzaga standing up. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has found most of his success in the ground game, with the majority of his victories coming by submission (nine of 14 career wins). Against Herman, however, Gonzaga won't have the guarantee of taking this fight to the ground, as Herman successfully defends an above-average 63 percent of attempts.
With the younger Herman (28) facing 34-year-old Gonzaga, who is taking this fight on short notice, the plus-190 odds seem like a terrific deal, regardless of his recent track record.
Insider value pick: Herman
<center>[h=3]Edson Barboza (minus-550) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (plus-400)[/h]</center>
Before his undefeated winning streak came to an end against Jamie Varner, Barboza seemed to be one of the most dangerous and promising young fighters in the UFC. The loss, however, shouldn't be taken as an indication of weakness, as the experienced brawler Varner has a history of making technical fighters look bad. Also, if his previous fight was any indication, Barboza has returned to dominant form, finishing off Lucas Martins with strikes less than three minutes into the first round. Against the technically inferior Oliveira, the outcome shouldn't be any different.
Barboza's ability to pick apart opponents in the stand-up is almost second to none. With a high 3.9 SLpM compared to the shorter Oliveira's 2.17 and a reach advantage of 3.5 inches, Barboza should have no obstacles in putting on another dominant stand-up performance.
Historically, Oliveira's game plan has been to get opponents to the ground and implement his submission game. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Oliveira has done this with a 2.76 takedowns-per-15 minutes rate and a 1.77 submissions-per-15 minutes rate. Against Barboza, he will have an incredibly hard time taking the fight there, as Barboza holds an impressive 75 percent takedown defense. (Excluding the Varner fight, Barboza's takedown defense is an even higher 83 percent.)
Because Oliveira's ability comes more from a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background (against which Barboza has had previous success), as opposed to a pure wrestling background (what Varner used against Barboza), it isn't likely that Oliveira will execute his grappling game plan without taking some severe damage in the process. Given Oliveira's previous inability to avoid danger when standing with superior strikers, the bigger, superior and more technical Barboza should dominate. Even with the inflated odds at minus-550, consider Barboza nearly a sure thing.
Insider value pick: Barboza
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By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
UFC 162 will carry that unique mystique that accompanies an event that could be history in the making. Anderson Silva, arguably the greatest pound-for-pound fighter in the world, will be defending his middleweight belt for the 10th time, this time against surging contender Chris Weidman, who seems to have many of the tools that make him a bona fide matchup problem for Silva. In addition, Frankie Edgar looks to regain his dominant form against youngster Charles Oliveira in the featherweight division.
Let's break down the odds and statistics behind the Saturday night fights to see where the value lies.
<center>[h=3]Anderson Silva (minus-230) vs. Chris Weidman (plus-180)[/h]</center>
If you just took the odds as an indication, Weidman will pose the biggest threat in recent history to finally ending Silva's undefeated run in UFC. The reason, perhaps, is the combination of an aging champion -- Silva is 38 years old, compared to Weidman at 29 -- and a challenger who has the perfect skill set to pull off a gigantic upset in the middleweight division.
<offer>
After Silva's first fight with Chael Sonnen, it was apparent that Silva had an exploitable weakness in defending the takedown and staying on his feet against a competent wrestler. By successfully landing four out of 11 takedowns in two fights, Sonnen in effect designed the blueprint for how to defeat Silva. This especially was true because Sonnen, in the first fight, was able to convert these takedowns into top position, which Sonnen held for most of the fight, or at the very least the rounds in which he put Silva on his back.
With Weidman possessing a similar pedigree, the former NCAA All-American wrestler from Hofstra has been able to land an incredibly high 4.47 takedowns per 15 minutes in his undefeated nine-fight career. But Weidman also has an active submission game, attempting 1.38 submissions per 15 minutes and winning three fights in this manner from top position. In addition, one of Weidman's most impressive statistics is his ability to dominate in grappling matchups, with a perfect 100 percent takedown defense in his career.
Silva is one of MMA's most dangerous fighters standing up, holding the record for knockdowns landed with 17, so it's unlikely that Weidman will leave this fight standing for long. Given that he never has been on the wrong end of a grappling match, Weidman surely will use his wrestling ability to put Silva on his back and employ Sonnen's game plan. With Weidman also possessing the ability to close out the fight via submission, consider him, as a sizable plus-180 underdog, a good bet to finally bring the aging veteran's reign to a close.
Insider value pick: Weidman
<center>[h=3]Frankie Edgar (minus-550) vs. Charles Oliveira (plus-425)[/h]</center>
As the man who essentially sent UFC legend BJ Penn into semi-retirement, Edgar somehow has found himself in the odd position as one of the most underrated fighters in MMA. Due to three close decision losses that all occurred in title fights (but easily could have gone in his favor), he comes into this fight at a lower weight class on a three-fight losing streak.
Edgar is one of the most prolific strikers in UFC history, having the sixth-most significant strikes landed of all time (827). But while Edgar is best known for his ability to set an exhausting pace on his opponents and win exchanges, Oliveira actually enters this fight with a higher average strikes landed per minute rate than Edgar -- 3.73 SLpM to 3.23 SLpM, respectively. Oliveira also impressively has landed these strikes at a more efficient rate than Edgar (46 percent to Edgar's 38 percent).
The difference, however, comes in Edgar's ability to fluidly move in and out of the pocket, taking minimal damage. Edgar takes less damage, with a SApM rate of 2.22 to Oliveira's 2.62, and successfully defends an incredibly high 72 percent of strikes compared to Oliveira's 65 percent. Edgar's ability to avoid being finished also somewhat negates one of Oliveira's biggest strengths -- his high 3.65 submissions per 15 minutes rate, which he has used to gain nine submission victories.
However, despite his seeming superiority, the reason Edgar isn't a great value is that Oliveira can inflict serious damage, and he's just 23 (Edgar is 31). With Oliveira's ability progressing with each successive fight, this might not be a walk in the park for Edgar. But he should have the experience and superior ability to gain his first win since 2011. With too many variables possibly at play, consider the minus-550 odds in Edgar's favor exactly where they should be and stay away from this fight.
Insider value pick: Stay away
<center>[h=3]Gabriel Gonzaga (minus-250) vs. Dave Herman (plus-190)[/h]</center>
Herman hasn't exactly inspired confidence in fans and bettors in his past three outings. He was finished in each of them and, even worse, showed a seemingly careless game plan, so it might seem counterintuitive for him to be a trustworthy value at all. He also failed a drug test after his most recent fight and faces the formidable Gonzaga, who is fighting for his UFC life.
Despite his recent reputation of being unreliable, Herman's overall MMA record is more than impressive. Before dropping the past three against some of the top talent in the heavyweight division, Herman was a respectable 21-2, with one of the two losses coming via disqualification due to illegal knees. In addition, one of Herman's most impressive statistics is that 15 of his 21 wins have been by KO/TKO, showing the propensity to land heavy hands and finish fights definitively.
Big power has been a huge problem for Gonzaga, who also has been inconsistent. Six of Gonzaga's seven career losses have come by KO/TKO, so he's been more than susceptible to knockout artists such as Herman. Add to this the fact that Herman lands almost double the strikes per minute (4.43 to 2.33) and it's likely Herman has the edge over Gonzaga standing up. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has found most of his success in the ground game, with the majority of his victories coming by submission (nine of 14 career wins). Against Herman, however, Gonzaga won't have the guarantee of taking this fight to the ground, as Herman successfully defends an above-average 63 percent of attempts.
With the younger Herman (28) facing 34-year-old Gonzaga, who is taking this fight on short notice, the plus-190 odds seem like a terrific deal, regardless of his recent track record.
Insider value pick: Herman
<center>[h=3]Edson Barboza (minus-550) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (plus-400)[/h]</center>
Before his undefeated winning streak came to an end against Jamie Varner, Barboza seemed to be one of the most dangerous and promising young fighters in the UFC. The loss, however, shouldn't be taken as an indication of weakness, as the experienced brawler Varner has a history of making technical fighters look bad. Also, if his previous fight was any indication, Barboza has returned to dominant form, finishing off Lucas Martins with strikes less than three minutes into the first round. Against the technically inferior Oliveira, the outcome shouldn't be any different.
Barboza's ability to pick apart opponents in the stand-up is almost second to none. With a high 3.9 SLpM compared to the shorter Oliveira's 2.17 and a reach advantage of 3.5 inches, Barboza should have no obstacles in putting on another dominant stand-up performance.
Historically, Oliveira's game plan has been to get opponents to the ground and implement his submission game. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Oliveira has done this with a 2.76 takedowns-per-15 minutes rate and a 1.77 submissions-per-15 minutes rate. Against Barboza, he will have an incredibly hard time taking the fight there, as Barboza holds an impressive 75 percent takedown defense. (Excluding the Varner fight, Barboza's takedown defense is an even higher 83 percent.)
Because Oliveira's ability comes more from a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background (against which Barboza has had previous success), as opposed to a pure wrestling background (what Varner used against Barboza), it isn't likely that Oliveira will execute his grappling game plan without taking some severe damage in the process. Given Oliveira's previous inability to avoid danger when standing with superior strikers, the bigger, superior and more technical Barboza should dominate. Even with the inflated odds at minus-550, consider Barboza nearly a sure thing.
Insider value pick: Barboza
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