Service Plays Tuesday 7/9/13

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GL!

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

The MLB All-Star break is just around the corner. The brief hiatus can be a speed bump for streaking teams and a moment of mercy for struggling ones. The Detroit Tigers have used the Mid-Summer Classic as a kickoff to the “real season”, going a collective 90-61 following the All-Star break the past two seasons.

Detroit is set up for a double lookahead this week. Not only are the Tigers counting down to the post-ASG schedule but take on the lowly Chicago White Sox for three games, starting Tuesday, before a showdown with the Texas Rangers to end the first half of the schedule. The White Sox are small potatoes compared to the Rangers, who will likely be battling Detroit for playoff positioning and possibly a wild card spot come the fall.

Letdown spot

The two conference leaders in the WNBA do battle when the Minnesota Lynx host the Atlanta Dream Tuesday night. Oddsmakers have set the Lynx (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) as 6.5-point favorites for that high-profile matchup. A win over the 10-1 Dream would crown Minnesota as the team to beat in 2013.

The Lynx are back in action following that important game Thursday, visiting the stumbling Indiana Fever. The two teams met in last year’s WNBA Finals, but Indiana has fallen from grace with a 4-7 SU and ATS start to the season. Minnesota could get caught in a big letdown spot, especially with the Fever showing some of their championship swagger in recent games.

Schedule spot

The Miami Dolphins have one of the weirdest schedules for the 2013 NFL season. Miami opens with five non-divisional games and closes against three straight AFC East foes. Not only that, the Dolphins find themselves playing four games in just over three weeks in November.

Miami is at New England for a grinder in Week 8 (+7) then hosts the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football in Week 9 (-1). The Dolphins come off that short week with another primetime matchup at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football in Week 10 (+1.5) before finishing this tough four-game, 22-day stretch with a home date versus the San Diego Chargers in Week 11 (-3).

Winning MLB pitchers that are horrible bets

Here are four pitchers that have won more games than they’ve lost, but have been killing bettors to this point in the season:

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are 10-8 in Verlander’s starts to date but a $100 bettor would be down $348 if they had wagered on each of the fireballer’s outings. Sharp bettors are instead fading the Tigers when the 2011 AL MVP takes the hill and betting the over to a tune of 11-6-1.

Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers

The Rangers are 10-8 when Darvish gets the ball and $100 bettors are in the red $499 on the righty’s 18 starts. The Japanese export really burned bettors in his most recent start against the Houston Astros when Texas fell as a hearty -320 favorite.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw boasts a league-best 1.89 ERA but that isn’t impressing bettors. The Dodgers are 11-8 in the lefty’s outings and that's resulted in a $291 loss for $100 bettors in each of his starts. But there may be hope in the second half of the season for Kershaw bettors. L.A. has wins in 12 of its last 15 games and won each of his last three starts.

Matt Harvey, New York Mets

The Mets are used to their role as underdogs on a nightly basis, but they’re almost always favorites when Harvey toes the rubber. The righty has only been a dog twice in his 18 starts and has put $100 bettors $320 in the hole. Surprisingly, New York has a 9-7-1 over/under record in Harvey’s starts.

Three bad MLB teams that are good bets lately

The Seattle Mariners, New York Mets and Chicago Cubs have been fade material all season, but all three clubs have been a good bet lately.

Let's take a closer look:

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners couldn't have asked for a better road trip, as they took back-to-back series' and six of eight games from the Rangers and Reds. Seattle won all six of those games as an underdog and returns home for a four-game set with the Boston Red Sox on Monday night.

New York Mets

New York has quietly posted a 12-8 record since June 18th, with nine of those victories coming in an underdog role. The Mets head to San Francisco to take on the struggling Giants for a three-game set beginning Monday. New York has also been a great over play recently, going 7-1 over/under over its past eight contests.

Chicago Cubs

At 7-4 over their last 11 games, the Cubbies are finally giving their faithful something to cheer about. With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, Chicago’s potential players on the move should continue to step up and showcase their talents for the next few weeks.

Bettors winning big during the 'Underdog Days of Summer'
By JASON LOGAN

A rash of huge sports betting upsets are giving new meaning to the term "Dog Days of Summer".

Even though sports bettors are just over a week into July, this summer has already provided plenty of jaw-dropping underdog wins and the bountiful windfalls that accompany those stunners.

For the most part, underdog wins are good for sportsbooks. While a handful of hopeful bettors rake in a big payday, the majority of the money lands on the favorite. However, sometimes the betting public falls in love with the live dog and sticks it to the bookies when that dog bites back.

From Wimbledon to Weidman, here are some underdog winners of note to kick off the summer.

Wimbledon

The wackiness at Wimbledon actually started in late June when Rafael Nadal (-15,000) suffered a first-round stunner versus Steve Darcis (+2,800), followed by an insane second round that saw Roger Federer (-20,000 vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky +3,300), Maria Sharapova (-6,600 vs. Michelle Larcher de Brito +2,000), Caroline Wozniacki, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and other top seeds bow out.

Women’s favorite Serena Williams (-1,600) was upset by Sabine Lisicki (+900) in the fourth round and Andy Murray snapped a 77-year British drought at the All-England Club in the men’s final. Marion Bartoli finished off the tournament with another win for the dogs, after she took out Lisicki in the women's final and paid off her pre-tourney bettors at +8,000. Murray was a modest +333 to win Wimbledon.

According to Bet365.com, a parlay involving upsets of Nadal, Federer, Sharapova and Williams would have paid out at 320-to-1. However, not having the big names make it deep into a tournament is a double-edge sword for sportsbooks. They clean up on all the futures bets on those stars but see interest in the event sputter because of a lack of name power.

“Action in the early rounds of tournaments is minimal compared to the quarters and semis, so not having star power like Serena, Nadal, Federer was damaging to our volume,” says Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, told Covers.

UFC 162

Word on the MMA street was that plenty of fight pundits were siding with Chris Weidman to snap Anderson Silva’s 17-fight unbeaten streak and take the middleweight title at UFC 162 in Las Vegas this past Saturday.

But, despite that growing buzz, most thought Silva would pull out the win – one way or the other – like he had in so many previous bouts. Weidman, still a relative newcomer, closed at +200 with the reigning champ coming back at -250.

Weidman made the most of his title shot, making Silva pay for showboating with a stiff straight left hand that dropped the champ to the mat in the second round. Weidman pursued with a couple shots on the ground before the ref jumped in. Weidman via KO paid out at +800 and Weidman winning the second round was a tasty +950.

“Referees always tell fighters, ‘protect yourself at all times’,” Aron Black of Bet365.com. “Well, Mr. Silva thought that playing cute and playing up to the crowd, which he’s normally good at, can be very costly. Getting caught whilst pretending to be hurt and then jumped on for a ref stoppage is not how he would like to be remembered, but the odds said that the loss wasn’t such a big shock.”

Houston Astros

The Astros are just 2-5 so far in July but one of those wins came as a hefty +288 moneyline underdog at rival Texas this weekend. Houston was matched up against Rangers ace Yu Darvish, with Texas coming back as a -320 favorite.

The Astros chased Darvish with five runs through six innings and added another four runs in the seventh and eighth to secure a 9-5 stunner, getting a big day from their bats. Houston hit a three-run and two two-run homers in the victory.

“What was even a bigger decision for us was the runline, where the Rangers opened -1.5 (-140) and closed -1.5 (-170), a huge 30-cent move for a baseball runline,” says Stewart.

CFL Week 2

Underdogs are just 2-6 ATS through the first two weeks of the CFL season. Those two winners, however, were touchdown underdogs in their second games of the season.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers defeated the Montreal Alouettes by the very-Canadian score of 19-11 - healthy amount of rouges - as 7-point pups Thursday. Edmonton rounded out the Week 2 slate with a 30-20 upset at Hamilton, also getting a TD from bookmakers Sunday.

British Grand Prix

Sebastian Vettel was cruising to victory on Lap 42 at the British Grand Prix on June 30. He opened at +110 and was bet all the way up to -175 before the race.

His live betting odds spiked after Lewis Hamilton and others had tire troubles on the Silverstone Circuit, making Vettel a -1,000 favorite with 12 laps remaining. That’s when a gearbox failure in his Red Bull racer forced him out of the race, leaving Mercedes driver Nico Rosberg to top the podium.

“Considering (Vettel’s) position and odds at the time, it was quite an upset for him to not win the race,” says Black. “With a -1000 price tag, the field was effectively +650 against him.”

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Rays Monday and likes the Rays again Tuesday.

The deficit is 846 sirignanos.

Vic Monte Sports

PRIVATE PLAY GAME OF THE MONTH - San Francisco Giants -1.30

bookiemonsters

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Kansas City at NY Yankees[/h] The Yankees look to build on their 5-0 record in C.C. Sabathia's last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. New York is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145). Here are all of today's picks.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1059-793 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner TUES Rockies + 110

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Tuesday

Tampa Bay -155

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Bonus Play Tuesday Cincinnati/Milwaukee Over 8

SuperSportsGroup MLB - 7/9

LAA v. Chicago 8:05pm
PICK: Cubs ML +105 Game

Colorado v. San Diego 10:10pm
PICK: Rockies ML +115 Game

Cappers Access

Rays(RL) -1.5(+120)
Angels -120

[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]Atlanta at Minnesota[/h] The Lynx look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games versus Atlanta. Minnesota is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5). Here are all of today's picks

tkwins Baltimore under 9.5 = 7units, Mariners --125= 5units, Royals +127= 3units

INTPICKS

[h=3]Today's Official Picks[/h] [h=4][/h] [h=4]Tuesday, July 9, 2013[/h] [h=4]All 1 unit [/h] [h=4][/h] [h=4][/h] [h=4]MLB[/h] [h=4]7:05 PM ET[/h] [h=4]Chicago White Sox @ Detroit[/h] [h=4]Take Detroit Run Line (-1.5) -120[/h] [h=4][/h] [h=4] 8:15 PM ET[/h] [h=4]Houston @ St. Louis[/h] [h=4]Take St. Louis Run Line (-1.5) -125[/h] [h=4][/h] [h=4] *Parlay Alert: Detroit & St. Louis Run Lines (Pays +253)[/h]