CFL WEEK 3 Plays

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Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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2-1 +5.2 last week
3-2 +4.6 YTD


Lines are out

Thursday

Toronto Opened at PK moved -1.5.....I actually thought this line would come out at -2.

I am adding something to the arsenal this year, just for tracking purposes. Let me know if you have ever done someting similar, I think it will be a good way to gauge how a team is going and how the books perceive them.

I call it the Point Spread Differential - each week I will track how a team did vs the spread +/- and keep a running YTD total.

SO far Sask is +31 and Toronto is +.5, which tells me two things the books have a good read on the argos but they have misread the green riders. Which reminds me of 2 or 3 years ago when the books undervalued Sask the first half of the season. Sharky do you remember that?

The other thing I find interesting here is 2 is a key number in CFL betting, if this line does not move to 2 We have ourselves a bet.

Friday

Montreal - Opened at -2 up to -3 I had this game at PK - Drew tates status is probably clouding this line and perhaps some sharps are hedging he wont go...

One thing Wally Buono has been great at in BC is knowing when a player is done and he ships him out for full Value. Players when they fall fall fast age catches up with them quickly. Could it be that father time has finally caught up with AC? He has been un AC like and his pass rating is in 50%

Saturday

Hamilton -4.5 to -4 I had PK - I think this line more testament to how bad Montreal maybe this year, they barely beat Winn in Winn and then lost to them at home and Winn is a 4 point dog to an 0-2 team with the worst defense in the league?

If you are a Hamilton backer you can throw out last weeks game the weather was crazy and really hurt the passing game for the Ticats. We should not forget the cats are getting use to a new system here , but I think they win this week and cover the number. The line is dropping though so wait for a better number.

BC -4 ....-4 _ I finally had one right I thought BC would be -3.5

I am eyeing up the under in this game, Edmonton Offense is the worst in the league, BC defense got on track last week,. BC offense is red zone dud, Edmonton defense is full of studs


Back later with plays wanted to get my thoughts out there for comments
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Okay it happened the Riders dropped back to -1 at the key book.....I think they win SU but I could find +2 at Matchbook so I played

Sask +2 -110 5*
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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the rest

CGY +3 -114 3*
Ticats -4 -117 3*

Powerz
 
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hey buddy. GL throughout this year man. I had one question... does it have to close at that number at that "key book" or you already know 100% it is going to be a play by it just moving there?
 
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I guess what I am asking is what clarifies it for you so early in the day? Thank you for your contributions here.
 

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I am adding something to the arsenal this year, just for tracking purposes. Let me know if you have ever done someting similar, I think it will be a good way to gauge how a team is going and how the books perceive them.

I call it the Point Spread Differential - each week I will track how a team did vs the spread +/- and keep a running YTD total.

Some help with the visualization of this here:
http://cleanuphitter.com/cfl/stats/chart_ats_margins.php

I track average and not cumulative, but the ideas are the same. I make heavy use of the running ATS margin in the NFL; not quite as much in the CFL, but it's still a very good tool.
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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I guess what I am asking is what clarifies it for you so early in the day? Thank you for your contributions here.


Hi Mob;

This is pure line read and feel - not a Chart play....AS I knew I would not be home in time for kick off.

You are correct Chart plays are based on closing lines....or 5 minutes to close

I can tell you thou this line closed at -1.5 home favs -1.5 2-4 last 2 years


go riders

YAA - nice chart thanks for the feedback

VS - good to see you sir - gl tonight!
 

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Gluck hope it comes through, i took a small play on the 1st half +1, I like what I see from both sides of the ball for the riders, especially the defense seems much improved
 
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Hi Mob;

This is pure line read and feel - not a Chart play....AS I knew I would not be home in time for kick off.

You are correct Chart plays are based on closing lines....or 5 minutes to close

I can tell you thou this line closed at -1.5 home favs -1.5 2-4 last 2 years


go riders

YAA - nice chart thanks for the feedback

VS - good to see you sir - gl tonight!


Thanks Powerz. You the man. Nice read
 

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nice win Powerz, hope this gives an indication of how your weekend will go:toast:
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Thanks MOB

Thanks Sharky - on to tonight and I hope Calgary is mad about last week and lays a whooping on Montreal.
 

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Really like the over tonight between Cal/Mon. Stamps secondary is really struggling and Als should be able to score plenty with Calvillo and those receivers. Glenn is the starter for Calgary which means points both for and against as he throws INTs on a regular basis. Good luck.
 

Don't assume people in charge know what they are d
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Well done on Sasky LN powers.
Will tail the hot hand and take an over.
GL
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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HI Spruce - Thanks for your input

Hi Coaster - Good to see you

I'll tail you guys on the over for an unofficial beer and pizza money play


SYB
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Guys I am going to buy back some of Cgy bet

CGY now only a 1* play +3 - I don't like the late line movement and -2.5 -135 ML is a strong play on the chart -2.5 is 7-2 and -2.5 -135 is 3-0
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Well after watching the first half ....

max play Calgary +2.5 10* -106 second half
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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5* ml +124 Calgary ...... Montreal is not a second half team
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Calgary coaching staff head and shoulders above montreal's
 

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