Service Plays Sunday 7/14/13

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GL!

NASCAR betting: Camping World RV Sales 301

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series shifts to New Hampshire for the Camping World RV Sales 301 on Sunday.

Here’s our race preview:

Favorite: Denny Hamlin (+625)

Hamlin won last year’s September race at New Hampshire and has finished in the top 10 in 10 of his last 14 Cup races at the track. His 7.929 average finishing percentage here is the best on the circuit.

Live dog: Tony Stewart (+1250)

Stewart has 14 top five finishes, including three wins, in 28 career starts at NHMS. He ranks second out of 49 drivers with average place of 9.2 at events here over the past eight years.

Long shot: Ryan Newman (+3200)

Newman has 14 top 10 finishes, including three wins in 21 Cup starts at NHMS. Great value at +3200.

Key stat: Eight of the 36 (22.2%) Sprint Cup races at NHMS have been won from the starting front row.

Notable quotable:

“It is a tough track and I think your mindset needs to be focused because it is easy to get frustrated on that race track. You can get inside of someone but to complete the pass is another story. My mindset at New Hampshire is to be calm and race to the conditions I have and not get overly frustrated.” – Jimmie Johnson on NHMS.

Odds to win the Camping World RV 301 courtesy of 5Dimes:

Denny Hamlin 25-4
Jimmie Johnson 13-2
Jeff Gordon 17-2
Clint Bowyer 35-4
Kasey Kahne 21-2
Kyle Busch 11-1
Tony Stewart 25-2
Brad Keselowski 13-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 13-1
Kevin Harvick 13-1
Matt Kenseth 20-1
Martin Truex Jr. 22-1
Joey Logano 26-1
Carl Edwards 26-1
Kurt Busch 27-1
Ryan Newman 32-1
Greg Biffle 32-1
Jamie McMurray 44-1
Juan Montoya 55-1
Brian Vickers 55-1

Sunday Night Baseball: Cardinals at Cubs
By STEVE MERRIL

A National League Central rivalry takes center stage on Sunday night as the Cubs host the Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

DOING IT WAIN-WRIGHT

Adam Wainwright is 12-5 with a 2.30 ERA on the year. He has pitched at least seven innings in 15 of his 19 starts. The Cardinals’ starter has allowed 1 run or less in nine outings as well. Wainwright has faced the Cubs just once this season giving up 4 runs and seven hits in a loss back on June 18th. The righty has great control posting no more than 2 walks in a single outing. He has struck out 26 batters in his last four games and he hasn’t lost a game on the road since his first start of the season back on April 1st.

WOOD WOULD LIKE MORE WINS

Travis Wood is 6-6 with a 2.69 ERA despite the fact that he has thrown 17 quality starts this season. Wood has allowed 2 earned runs or less in three straight starts which all came against the AL West. He has faced the Cardinals twice this season going 1-1 overall while allowing 4 earned runs and 13 hits in those games. Wood has struck out four batters or more in 10 straight starts. Run support has been a bit of an issue for the southpaw as the Cubs have scored just 17 total runs in his last seven starts.

INJURY REPORT

The Cubs are a pretty healthy team; a lot of the names on their injury report aren’t that important. David DeJesus has a shoulder injury which should keep him out a month. Ryan Sweeney is out with a fractured a rib after running into a wall. Other than that, Chicago is without a few pitchers who weren’t really big contributors.

The Cardinals are a little more dinged up with Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday dealing with their own ailments. Out for the year is Jaime Garcia, Rafael Furcal and Jason Motte. Chris Carpenter will be back at some point in the second half as he is getting close to making rehab starts.

TRENDS

Cardinals are 11-5 in Wainwright’s last 16 Sunday starts
Cardinals are 11-5 Over in their last 16 Sunday games

Cubs are 6-14 in Wood’s last 20 home starts
Cubs are 50-22-4 Over in their last 76 during Game 4 of a series

HITTERS TO WATCH

Alfonso Soriano 11-for-42 vs. Wainwright
Starlin Castro 5-for-17 vs. Wainwright

Allen Craig 5-for-16 vs. Wood
Jon Jay 7-for-17 vs. Wood

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Yankees Saturday and likes the Yankees Sunday.

The deficit is 990 sirignanos.

Wainwright, Wood Finish Series at Wrigley Sunday
by Brian Graham

First pitch: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: 913 St. Louis Cardinals -145 vs 914 Chicago Cubs +135

The first half of the MLB season comes to a close on Sunday night when the Cardinals and Cubs finish a three-game series in Wrigley Field.

Assuming he's not named the starter in the All-Star Game, right-hander Adam Wainwright (12-5, 2.30 ERA) will take the ball for St. Louis on Sunday against Chicago's most dependable pitcher this season, left-hander Travis Wood (6-6, 2.69 ERA). This sets up a thrilling pitching matchup of the two hurlers with the most quality starts in the majors this season -- Wood has 17, Wainwright has 16. Both teams enter this series on a hot streak, with each club winning five of its past six games. However, while the Cardinals have the best road record in the majors at 28-19 (.596), the Cubs have been dreadful at home, going 21-24, (.467, 5th-worst in MLB). But St. Louis is just 8-12 (.400, 24th in majors) versus lefty starters, while Chicago is 29-34 (.460, 22nd in MLB) when facing righty starters. These two rivals have already met seven times this season with the Cardinals taking four of the seven games, but the Cubs winning two of three at Wrigley Field. But in the past three seasons, St. Louis is 24-15 (.615) in this series.

Wainwright (0.99 WHIP, 7th in NL) has been arguably the best pitcher in the National League this season, leading the league in wins (12), innings (140.2) and complete games (four), while placing third in ERA (2.30) and fifth in strikeouts (126). His two shutouts are also tied with Clayton Kershaw for the NL lead. The Cardinals are 13-6 (.684) in Wainwright's 19 starts this season, including an impressive 9-2 (.818) on the road, where the 31-year-old is 8-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Although Wainwright is a perfect 5-0 in his career at Wrigley Field, he carries a mediocre 3.77 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 62 innings in Chicago's home park. Overall, he's 6-6 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 128 innings when facing the Cubs, but in five starts against them since 2012, he has a horrible 5.90 ERA and .286 opponents' BA. Wainwright will benefit from not having to face injured OF David DeJesus, who is 9-for-23 (.391 BA) with 2 HR off him, but the Cubs player he's most familiar with, OF Alfonso Soriano (.262 BA, .452 SLG in 42 at-bats vs. Wainwright), has been sizzling lately. Soriano enters this series with a .346 BA, 8 HR and 17 RBI in his past 13 games. If Wainwright gets into trouble, he has a decent bullpen to bail him out. Cardinals relievers are 8-11 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season, but those numbers are much better on the road: 4-4, 2.66 ERA, 1.16 WHIP.

Wood (0.97 WHIP, 5th in NL) is having a breakout campaign with an ERA (2.69) more than a run lower than his first three seasons in the majors (4.22), and holding opponents to a .191 batting average and .300 slugging percentage. Despite his consistent excellence of 17 quality starts in 18 tries, the Cubs are just 7-11 (.389) when Wood takes the hill this year. The record does improve at home though (5-6), where the lefty is 4-4 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, holding opponents to a .194 BA. Although Wood isn't a huge strikeout pitcher with 85 K's in 117 innings (6.5 K/9), he has struck out at least four batters in each of his past nine starts. He snapped a six-start winless streak his last time out against the Angels when he threw 6.2 innings and allowed just two runs on four hits. Although his career numbers versus the Cardinals aren't of high quality (8 GS, 3-3, 4.59 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), he has pitched superbly in his two outings against them this season with a 2.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 12 strikeouts and just two walks in 13.2 innings. And that's no easy feat considering the Cardinals enter the weekend ranked third in the majors in runs (445), hitting (.274) and getting on base (.335). All six current Cardinals with at least a dozen plate appearances in their careers versus Wood are hitting above .300 against him, but OF Matt Holliday (7-for-23, 2 HR, 4 RBI) may not play because of a hamstring injury. The 26-year-old Wood will have to be most careful with these three hitters that have enjoyed facing him -- OF John Jay (.412 BA), C Yadier Molina (.350 BA, 2 HR) and 1B Allen Craig (.313 BA, 2 HR). Although Wood averages 6.5 innings per start, he's been burned by his subpar bullpen many times this season. Entering Friday, Chicago relievers have a 4.10 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, saving just 21-of-38 chances (55%). The bullpen has been even worse at Wrigley Field with a 4.41 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

NASCAR heads to The Magic Mile Sunday
by Brian Graham

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Camping World RV Sales 301

Sunday, July 14 – 1:00 p.m. EDT
New Hampshire Motor Speedway – Loudon, NH

The NASCAR circuit moves north to New Hampshire for Sunday’s Camping World RV Sales 301 race at Loudon’s “The Magic Mile.” This is no cookie-cutter track, considered to be one of the toughest oval courses for drivers, as it is sometimes referred to as “Martinsville on steroids.” This 1.058-mile track completed in 1990 is mostly flat with 1° straights and turns varying from 7° to 9°. The frontstretch and backstretch are both exactly 1,500 feet, making it a true oval. This race has had a different champion in each of the past 10 starts, with last year's winners being Kasey Kahne in the summer and Denny Hamlin in the fall.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds
Jimmie Johnson 5-to-1
Denny Hamlin 5-to-1
Clint Bowyer 8-to-1
Jeff Gordon 8-to-1
Kasey Kahne 10-to-1
Kyle Busch 10-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12-to-1
Brad Keselowski 12-to-1
Kevin Harvick 12-to-1
Tony Stewart 12-to-1
Matt Kenseth 15-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 20-to-1
Kurt Busch 25-to-1
Joey Logano 25-to-1
Carl Edwards 25-to-1
Greg Biffle 30-to-1
Ryan Newman 30-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 50-to-1
Juan Montoya 50-to-1
Jamie McMurray 50-to-1
Brian Vickers 50-to-1
Jeff Burton 75-to-1
Danica Patrick 100-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger 100-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-to-1
Paul Menard 100-to-1
Aric Almirola 100-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Tony Stewart (12/1) - He was given 6-to-1 odds in last summer's New Hampshire race, so the odds are certainly much more favorable this time around. "Smoke" is once again heating up in the summer months, cranking out top-7 finishes in five of his past seven races, including a win at Dover and coming in second behind Jimmie Johnson last week in Daytona. Stewart is no stranger to success at Loudon either, with three wins as part of 14 career top-5's at this track. Since 2005, his average finish in New Hampshire is an impressive 9.1. Stewart would be our pick to win Sunday's race regardless of where he is on the board, so treat his double-digit odds as a nice bonus.

Jimmie Johnson (5/1) - We told you last week that Johnson represented the best chalk in the field before he won his fourth race of the season, and we echo that sentiment again for Sunday. Johnson now has an average finish of 8.9 this season thanks to eight top-5's and 12 top-10's. He also carries an average finish of 9.5 in his career at New Hampshire, placing among the top-10 drivers in 68% (15-of-22) of his races here. This includes three wins and five other top-5's, which have all occurred since 2007. Johnson has led at least one lap in eight of the past nine starts at Loudon, and there's no reason to think he's undeserving of his status as a favorite. Johnson is too hot to be completely ignored by multi-wager bettors.

Ryan Newman (30/1) - Like Stewart, Newman's odds have also doubled since last summer when he went off at 15-to-1 at this track. That makes for a pretty nice darkhorse payout for the driver with the most career poles at New Hampshire (six). And the pole-position driver has five wins at this track, with Newman the last to turn the trick in 2011, giving him three career wins at "The Magic Mile." Like Johnson, Newman has also placed in the top-10 at this track in 15-of-22 career starts (68%). He has also raced well lately with top-10 finishes in four of his past eight starts this season. Don't be afraid to place a decent-sized wager on Newman, who represents the best value on the board.

Carl Edwards (25/1) - He continues to stay near the top of the Sprint Cup standings, currently sitting in third behind Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer despite two straight finishes outside the top-20. But Edwards still led for 35 laps before fading at Kentucky two weeks ago, and his poor showing at Daytona last week was to be expected considering the two superspeedways (Daytona and Talladega) represent his two worst average finishes of his career. Edwards' three top-10's in 17 starts at Loudon are nothing to brag about, but he did place eighth at this track in 2011 and started fifth in the most recent New Hampshire race last fall. His generous odds make his worthy of a one-unit wager.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (100/1) - Although he has yet to finish in the top-10 this season, there's something to be said for Stenhouse completing the fourth-most laps on the NASCAR circuit this season (5,198) and third-most miles (7,114.51). He's done that by completing all 18 races with an average finish of 18.3, slightly better than his average start of 18.7. Stenhouse is building on his best race of the season too, coming in 11th at Daytona, which ties his previous best finish of 11th at Kansas. He's never raced at Loudon, which makes him a definite wild card, but for the few longshots on the board, Stenhouse shines above the rest for his ability to shock the field at "The Magic Mile" on Sunday.

The Factsman

MLB
OVER 8 -Kansas City vs Cleveland, this game could move to 8.5. I don't want to go over 8.5

I like going OVER 8.... benefits of betting early.

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]LA Angels at Seattle[/h] The Angels look to take advantage of a Seattle team that is 2-10 in its last 12 games in Game 3 of a series. LA is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]Atlanta at Seattle[/h] The Dream look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games versus the Storm. Atlanta is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1063-795 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner SUN Red Sox + 145

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Sunday

Giants / Padres over 8.5

Cappers Access

Braves(RL) -1.5(+160)
Tigers(RL) -1.5(+120)
Cardinals -150

Joe Wiz

Bonus Play Sunday San Francisco/San Diego Under 9

Power Play Wins

Play of the Day

Braves

Braves still missing 3 starters today just so people know

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

MLB ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ST LOUIS) with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL)
284-142 since 1997. ( 66.7% 89.7 units )
14-8 this year. ( 63.6% 3.6 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB TEXAS at DETROIT

TEXAS is 18-6 (+13.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.

The average score was: TEXAS (5.3) , OPPONENT (4.0)

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

WNBA SAN ANTONIO at CONNECTICUT

Play Against - Underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) after allowing 75 points or more in 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.1 units )

WNBA ATLANTA at SEATTLE

Play Against - Underdogs vs the money line (SEATTLE) after 1 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (65-72 PPG) against an average defensive team (65-72 PPG)
261-91 since 1997. ( 74.1% 0.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA ATLANTA at SEATTLE

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, in July games
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )