| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +3.96 |
| Last 30 Days | 44 | 37 | 0.00 | +36.78 |
| Season to Date | 136 | 141 | 0.00 | +37.16 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
All plays are 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago +116 over PHILADELPHIA[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[FONT=arial !important]There’s a chance the White Sox revert back to their old ways after taking two of three in Detroit but winning is contagious and the 22 runs that the South Side scored at Comerica sure had to feel good. Chicago did some serious damage against Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez and if that doesn’t springboard them, nothing will. Chicago’s run heading to the All-Star break could definitely continue here with John Danks going. Danks has now thrown three straight pure quality outings and is starting to round into form since returning from the DL in late May. Over his last three starts, covering 21.1 frames, Danks has issued just three walks while striking out 16. His 3.77 xERA confirms he’s been tough so expect his ERA to inch downward as a 16% hr/f regresses. Danks gets a favorable matchup rating here against the Phillies, who are hitting just .247 against lefties this season.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jonathan Pettibone has kept the Phillies competitive for most of his 15 starts but his 3.84 ERA is likely heading south. Pettibone doesn’t walk batters at an excessive pace (27 in 84 IP) but with just 55 K’s, he doesn’t strike out batters at an acceptable clip, either. Pettibone’s decent ERA is a result of a fortunate strand rate more than skill. Pettibone is just 22 years old and though there’s not a lot of upside in his arm or arsenal, he has a classic innings-eater frame (6-6, 225). He’s also shown a composure on the mound that adds to the belief that he’ll have a substantial MLB career as a middle/low rotation type. However, there’s not lot of room for error in his stuff and he’s going to have several implosions every season over the course of his career. This could be one of them against a suddenly confident group of hitters.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
N.Y. Mets +127 over PITTSBURGH
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]No question that the Pirates are an improved team but they are not the second best team in baseball as their record suggests and there’s clear proof of that. The Pirates’ hitters are among the leaders in strikeouts and that does not correlate with being a .600 club. Pittsburgh’s .243 team batting average is comparable to the Mets, Marlins, Astros, Cubs and Mariners and we all know what those teams have in common. With a meek offense and a starting rotation that is average at best, expect the Pirates to sink faster than Ilya Kovalchuk’s popularity in New Jersey. This overachieving team is going to be a good fade and we’ll continue to play against them unless they show us something else. Charlie Morton has held his own in his five starts since returning from TJ surgery but a 1.33 WHIP and 15 runs against (9 earned) reminds us that this is still Charlie Morton. Morton has a career BAA of .289 and a career ERA of 4.98 in 497 career innings. Backing Morton and the Pirates at a price is a poor risk.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Mets have won four in a row and five of six. In those five wins they scored 35 times and that includes 21 runs scored at San Fran in a big-time pitcher’s park. Jeremy Hefner's numbers have been some of the best in baseball lately as he's gone 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over his last six outings. While he obviously won't keep this up all season (90% strand rate in the last month), there's some real skill growth going on here. Hefner has a 7/30 BB/K rate over his last 37 innings to go along with an elite groundball rate of 53% and an even more impressive line-drive rate of just 14%. Hefner has been downright dominant recently at some difficult venues that include Miller Park, Coors Field and Citizens Bank Park. He’s also allowed two runs or fewer in seven straight starts and the Mets have won his last five in a row. Chances are they make it six here. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +117 over Minnesota[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[FONT=arial !important]The All-Star break can’t get here soon enough for the Twins. They lost again yesterday for the fifth straight time, they’ve lost 11 of their last 12 and they have just four wins in their past 20 games. Scott Diamond is one of the worst skilled pitchers in baseball and if he were on any other team he would be a mop-up guy or in the minors. In 88 innings, Diamond has 42 K’s and a 1.53 WHIP. Over his past five starts, he has a 1.63 WHIP and a 6.36 ERA. His groundball rate has been getting progressively worse with each passing month and it is now at a season low 32% over his past four starts. Diamond is running out of gas. He’s been tagged for six jacks over his last 16.1 innings. He’s struck out two batters or less in three of his last five starts. In his last start, he walked four Blue Jays while striking out one. Diamond has lost whatever confidence he did have and he’s probably dreading taking the hill today to face a Yankees team coming off back-to-back eight-run outbursts. The team he pitches for has also lost confidence.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Yanks are not in bad shape. They are just six games out with this three-game set upcoming heading into the break. Hiroki Kuroda continues to thumb his nose at the aging curve, as he continues to flourish. His skills have even taken a step up in a tough ballpark, especially in the past month in which Kuroda has posted a 2.62 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over five starts. A 50% groundball rate and a low 15% line-drive rate confirms that Kuroda is gamely fighting off his 38 years. The Yanks rarely lose when Kuroda pitches at home, as his 5-2 record and 1.89 home ERA will attest to. That said, this one is all about fading Scott Diamond. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
Toronto +127 over BALTIMORE
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Orioles are coming off back-to-back wins over the Rangers but they only have three wins in their past eight games and their offense is trending the wrong way. Over their past 10 games, the O’s are hitting just .220, which ranks ahead of only Houston and San Fran over that stretch. They are hitting just .248 against lefties the entire season and just .196 against southpaws over their last 10 games. Overall, the Orioles are just 7-7 at home against lefties and will face a crafty one here in Mark Buehrle. Analyzing Mark Buehrle is like re-watching a favorite movie; you know exactly what to expect: an overachieving xERA, low strikeouts and outstanding command. While Buehrle struggled early in his shift to the AL East, he’s been coming on strong with an ERA of 3.00 over his past five starts to go along with an increasing 44% groundball rate, up from 38% in his first three months as a Blue Jay. Buehrle is more than capable of containing a cold hitting squad.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The main reason for this choice is wagering against Chris Tillman, whose skills are deteriorating rather quickly. Over his last 29 frames, Tillman was walked 15 batters while whiffing 19. His xERA of 5.74 over the past month is more than 1½ runs higher than his actual 3.99 ERA. Tillman has an ugly 33%/29%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball/ profile over his last five starts to go along with a brutal 1.68 WHIP. Chris Tillman is 10-3 with a 3.92 ERA and that has this below average pitcher extremely overvalued. He’s on the verge of a string of serious implosions and will remain on our radar as fade material.
[/FONT][/FONT]
[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]There’s a chance the White Sox revert back to their old ways after taking two of three in Detroit but winning is contagious and the 22 runs that the South Side scored at Comerica sure had to feel good. Chicago did some serious damage against Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez and if that doesn’t springboard them, nothing will. Chicago’s run heading to the All-Star break could definitely continue here with John Danks going. Danks has now thrown three straight pure quality outings and is starting to round into form since returning from the DL in late May. Over his last three starts, covering 21.1 frames, Danks has issued just three walks while striking out 16. His 3.77 xERA confirms he’s been tough so expect his ERA to inch downward as a 16% hr/f regresses. Danks gets a favorable matchup rating here against the Phillies, who are hitting just .247 against lefties this season.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jonathan Pettibone has kept the Phillies competitive for most of his 15 starts but his 3.84 ERA is likely heading south. Pettibone doesn’t walk batters at an excessive pace (27 in 84 IP) but with just 55 K’s, he doesn’t strike out batters at an acceptable clip, either. Pettibone’s decent ERA is a result of a fortunate strand rate more than skill. Pettibone is just 22 years old and though there’s not a lot of upside in his arm or arsenal, he has a classic innings-eater frame (6-6, 225). He’s also shown a composure on the mound that adds to the belief that he’ll have a substantial MLB career as a middle/low rotation type. However, there’s not lot of room for error in his stuff and he’s going to have several implosions every season over the course of his career. This could be one of them against a suddenly confident group of hitters.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
N.Y. Mets +127 over PITTSBURGH
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]No question that the Pirates are an improved team but they are not the second best team in baseball as their record suggests and there’s clear proof of that. The Pirates’ hitters are among the leaders in strikeouts and that does not correlate with being a .600 club. Pittsburgh’s .243 team batting average is comparable to the Mets, Marlins, Astros, Cubs and Mariners and we all know what those teams have in common. With a meek offense and a starting rotation that is average at best, expect the Pirates to sink faster than Ilya Kovalchuk’s popularity in New Jersey. This overachieving team is going to be a good fade and we’ll continue to play against them unless they show us something else. Charlie Morton has held his own in his five starts since returning from TJ surgery but a 1.33 WHIP and 15 runs against (9 earned) reminds us that this is still Charlie Morton. Morton has a career BAA of .289 and a career ERA of 4.98 in 497 career innings. Backing Morton and the Pirates at a price is a poor risk.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Mets have won four in a row and five of six. In those five wins they scored 35 times and that includes 21 runs scored at San Fran in a big-time pitcher’s park. Jeremy Hefner's numbers have been some of the best in baseball lately as he's gone 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over his last six outings. While he obviously won't keep this up all season (90% strand rate in the last month), there's some real skill growth going on here. Hefner has a 7/30 BB/K rate over his last 37 innings to go along with an elite groundball rate of 53% and an even more impressive line-drive rate of just 14%. Hefner has been downright dominant recently at some difficult venues that include Miller Park, Coors Field and Citizens Bank Park. He’s also allowed two runs or fewer in seven straight starts and the Mets have won his last five in a row. Chances are they make it six here. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +117 over Minnesota[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[FONT=arial !important]The All-Star break can’t get here soon enough for the Twins. They lost again yesterday for the fifth straight time, they’ve lost 11 of their last 12 and they have just four wins in their past 20 games. Scott Diamond is one of the worst skilled pitchers in baseball and if he were on any other team he would be a mop-up guy or in the minors. In 88 innings, Diamond has 42 K’s and a 1.53 WHIP. Over his past five starts, he has a 1.63 WHIP and a 6.36 ERA. His groundball rate has been getting progressively worse with each passing month and it is now at a season low 32% over his past four starts. Diamond is running out of gas. He’s been tagged for six jacks over his last 16.1 innings. He’s struck out two batters or less in three of his last five starts. In his last start, he walked four Blue Jays while striking out one. Diamond has lost whatever confidence he did have and he’s probably dreading taking the hill today to face a Yankees team coming off back-to-back eight-run outbursts. The team he pitches for has also lost confidence.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Yanks are not in bad shape. They are just six games out with this three-game set upcoming heading into the break. Hiroki Kuroda continues to thumb his nose at the aging curve, as he continues to flourish. His skills have even taken a step up in a tough ballpark, especially in the past month in which Kuroda has posted a 2.62 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over five starts. A 50% groundball rate and a low 15% line-drive rate confirms that Kuroda is gamely fighting off his 38 years. The Yanks rarely lose when Kuroda pitches at home, as his 5-2 record and 1.89 home ERA will attest to. That said, this one is all about fading Scott Diamond. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
Toronto +127 over BALTIMORE
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Orioles are coming off back-to-back wins over the Rangers but they only have three wins in their past eight games and their offense is trending the wrong way. Over their past 10 games, the O’s are hitting just .220, which ranks ahead of only Houston and San Fran over that stretch. They are hitting just .248 against lefties the entire season and just .196 against southpaws over their last 10 games. Overall, the Orioles are just 7-7 at home against lefties and will face a crafty one here in Mark Buehrle. Analyzing Mark Buehrle is like re-watching a favorite movie; you know exactly what to expect: an overachieving xERA, low strikeouts and outstanding command. While Buehrle struggled early in his shift to the AL East, he’s been coming on strong with an ERA of 3.00 over his past five starts to go along with an increasing 44% groundball rate, up from 38% in his first three months as a Blue Jay. Buehrle is more than capable of containing a cold hitting squad.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The main reason for this choice is wagering against Chris Tillman, whose skills are deteriorating rather quickly. Over his last 29 frames, Tillman was walked 15 batters while whiffing 19. His xERA of 5.74 over the past month is more than 1½ runs higher than his actual 3.99 ERA. Tillman has an ugly 33%/29%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball/ profile over his last five starts to go along with a brutal 1.68 WHIP. Chris Tillman is 10-3 with a 3.92 ERA and that has this below average pitcher extremely overvalued. He’s on the verge of a string of serious implosions and will remain on our radar as fade material.
[/FONT][/FONT]
[/FONT]
