Yesterday, we examined the 10 most profitable pitchers to bet on in baseball's first half. Because the glass certainly isn't always half full when it comes to Vegas, today it's time to look at the opposite end of the spectrum.
One of the most eye-popping aspects of the 10 least profitable pitchers in the first half of the MLB regular season is the glamor behind some of these names. These 10 starters have a combined 14 seasons' worth of 15-plus wins under their belt, which is why if you're betting baseball, you can't blindly bet for a team even when its ace is on the mound.
Here are the 10 least profitable pitchers of the first half of the MLB season (based on making $100 per wager) and whether you should bet or fade them in the second half:
[h=3]1. Joe Blanton, Los Angeles Angels[/h]
Money profited: -$1,513
Team W-L: 4-15
Average betting line as favorite: minus-140 (13 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-124.5 (six starts)
To become the least profitable pitcher in baseball, you need to be a favorite in the majority of your starts (13), your ERA (5.53) and WHIP (1.55) need to be close to embarrassing, and the team you pitch for needs to keep sending you out there (19 starts). Blanton unfortunately has check marks for all three.
He's ranked 50th overall in run support, receiving 4.05 runs per game, which is 0.57 runs less than the Angels' per game average (4.62). One of Blanton's downfalls this season has been his atrocious (and unlucky) BABIP of .339, which is the second-worst in baseball. That said, it's hard to expect things to improve significantly in the second half.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Twins (H), Athletics (R), Blue Jays (H), Rangers (H) (*H= Home, R=Road)
Fade or bet: Don't fade, don't bet ... stay far, far away
[h=3]2. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies[/h] Money profited: -$1,274
Team W-L: 6-14
Average betting line as favorite: minus-150 (15 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-116.5 (five starts)
What a difference a year can make. Hamels ended the 2012 season as the 14th-most profitable pitcher in baseball, making bettors $844 and giving the Phillies 21 wins in 31 total starts. In just 20 starts this year, he has given back all of those profits and given bettors a net loss of $430 overall.
With four of Philadelphia's starters profiting a total of $1,455 in the first half, Hamels really ends up looking like the odd man out. His 3.40 runs per game of support ranks 12th from the bottom and the worst among Phillies starters. Hamels is receiving 1.37 fewer runs this season than the other starters.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Mets (R), Tigers (R), Giants (H), Cubs (H)
Fade or bet: Bet
[h=3]3. Dan Haren, Washington Nationals[/h]
Money profited: -$1,056
Team W-L: 4-13
Average betting line as favorite: minus-132 (eight starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-129 (nine starts)
In 2012, Haren was the least profitable pitcher in baseball, losing bettors more than $1,500 in total, which means that in his past 47 starts, he has lost bettors an absurd $2,584. More than half of Haren's 17 first-half starts in 2013 have come as an underdog, which gives him the opportunity to possibly stay afloat through September.
Haren's 2.59 runs per game in support is by far the worst in baseball for qualified starters, even though the Nationals rank 27th in runs scored per game (3.76) and 28th in hits per game (7.98).
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Pirates (H), Mets (H), Brewers (R), Braves (H)
Fade or bet: For Haren, this has to be rock bottom. Bet on him in the second half.
[h=3]4. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
Money profited: -$944
Team W-L: 4-8
Average betting line as favorite: minus-176 (11 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-112 (one start)
The biggest obstacle Price backers will have to overcome in the second half is his heavy lines across the board. Price's past three lines going into the All-Star break should scare bettors away instantaneously: minus-185, minus-225 and minus-320.
Granted, two of those starts were against the Astros, but with an average favorite price of more than minus-175, it will be very hard for Price to climb his way back to even money any time soon. By comparison, Matt Moore, who ranked sixth on the list of most profitable pitchers, had an average favorite price of minus-142 in the first half.
Like Hamels, Price's 2012 season was far different from the debacle of 2013. Price made bettors more than $700 last year with an average favorite price of minus-158.5, which is almost 20 cents less than this year's average favorite line. The Rays' sixth-ranked offense in baseball (4.68 runs per game) gives Price 1.01 fewer runs per game than their average.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Blue Jays (R), Red Sox (R), Diamondbacks (H) and (R)
Fade or bet: I believe Price's net profits will get closer to zero in the second half, but I would avoid betting his high prices going forward.
[h=3]5. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals[/h]
Money profited: -$926
Team W-L: 7-11
Average betting line as favorite: minus-164 (16 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-103 (two starts)
The second Nationals pitcher on this list is no coincidence, considering the mixture of lack of hitting (3.76 runs per game), preseason expectations (third-best odds to win World Series at 8-1) and low home profits ($52) -- even being nine games above .500 at 27-18.
Despite Washington going 19-9 in Strasburg's 28 starts in 2012, bettors were able to cash in on only $350 because of his high-priced lines. That is one of the key things about betting baseball: Expectations are not always a positive thing when handicapping pitchers.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Dodgers (H), Pirates (H), Mets (H), Brewers (R)
Fade or bet: Bet his road starts, fade his high-priced home starts
[h=3]6. Josh Johnson, Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
Money profited: -$741
Team W-L: 3-9
Average betting line as favorite: minus-145 (seven starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-113 (five starts)
When your two most noteworthy starters (Johnson and R.A. Dickey) are losing bettors a total of $1,259 in 32 starts, you know your season is not going the way you had planned. With the fourth-best odds to win the World Series (9-1) before the season started, Toronto has really failed to live up to expectations with its starting rotation. Blue Jays starters have an ERA of 5.07 this year, ranking them 29th in baseball, just ahead of the Minnesota Twins (5.23).
When Dickey or Johnson starts at home for the Blue Jays, their average home line as a favorite in the first half was just under minus-145, with only one of those 17 starts coming as an underdog. Toronto has the fourth-most home runs per game (5.07), but is only four games above .500 at home while losing bettors $86 in the process.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Dodgers (H), Astros (H), Angels (R), Mariners (R)
Fade or bet: Bet all starts under the favorite average threshold of minus-145
[h=3]7. Phil Hughes, New York Yankees[/h]
Money profited: -$705
Team W-L: 6-12
Average betting line as favorite: minus-122 (10 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-122 (eight starts)
One of the key reasons buying stock in Hughes in the second half may be a failing investment is because Hughes has the worst ground ball-to-fly ball ratio (G/F) in baseball at 0.46. Yankee Stadium ranks right in the middle of the pack in home runs hit this season (13th, 1,023), which puts this Hughes stat into perspective.
Hughes is currently receiving the fifth-worst run support in all of baseball (3.00 runs per game) and the worst among the Yankees' staff. The Yankees are 2-8 in Hughes' home starts this year, with an ERA of 5.63, while New York is 4-4 in his road starts with an ERA of 3.38.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Rangers (R), Rays (H), Padres (R), Tigers (H)
Fade or bet: Bet Hughes as an underdog; he is 4-4 this year with a profit of $82.
[h=3]8. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds[/h]
Money profited: -$643
Team W-L: 8-11
Average betting line as favorite: minus-150 (16 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-110 (three starts)
Bailey is ranked 73rd in run support, inheriting 3.58 runs per game, while receiving the fourth-best run support in the Reds' rotation and posting the highest ERA (3.82).
The third-place Reds have a run differential of plus-63, are 11 games above .500 and part of the toughest division in baseball outside the AL East. After Bailey threw his no-hitter July 2, he lost two straight starts going into the All-Star break.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Pirates (H), Dodgers (R), Padres (R), Athletics (H)
Fade or bet: Avoid starts where Bailey is a road favorite; he is 2-5 in those spots.
[h=3]9. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants[/h]
Money profited: -$628
Team W-L: 8-11
Average betting line as favorite: minus-135 (15 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-123 (four starts)
Cain and Tim Lincecum are both receiving the exact same run support per start from the Giants (3.79), but Cain's ERA is 0.80 points higher and he has lost bettors $194 more. Where Cain has really struggled this season is with runners on base:
Men on: .313 AVG, .395 OBP, .949 OPS
Nobody on: .178 AVG, .234 OBP, .553 OPS
San Francisco is just 2-6 in his last eight starts going into the All-Star break, with a net loss of $627 -- pretty much the entire story for Cain in the first half.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Diamondbacks (H), Cubs (H), Phillies (R), Brewers (H)
Fade or bet: Giants starters have allowed the fifth-most ER in MLB, so fade Cain's heavy-lined home starts.
[h=3]10. Edinson Volquez, San Diego Padres[/h]
Money profited: -$610
Team W-L: 7-13
Average betting line as favorite: minus-130 (three starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-129.5 (17 starts)
The Padres have the 25th-worst slugging percentage and the 28th-worst home slugging percentage in baseball. That's not a good combination with starting pitchers allowing the fourth-most earned runs (283; 0.52 ER/IP) in the first half.
Volquez has the highest ERA among the 10 pitchers on this list at 5.74. Whether it is on the road (5.70) or at home (5.79), Volquez just has not been able to get hitters out in any ballpark in the first half. No surprise, based on his ERA, but he is 1-7 as a starter this year when receiving between zero and two runs of support.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Cardinals (R), Brewers (R), Reds (H), Orioles (H)
Fade or bet: As long as his 17 starts as an underdog compared to three as a favorite continues, betting Volquez in the second half may not be a bad idea.
One of the most eye-popping aspects of the 10 least profitable pitchers in the first half of the MLB regular season is the glamor behind some of these names. These 10 starters have a combined 14 seasons' worth of 15-plus wins under their belt, which is why if you're betting baseball, you can't blindly bet for a team even when its ace is on the mound.
Here are the 10 least profitable pitchers of the first half of the MLB season (based on making $100 per wager) and whether you should bet or fade them in the second half:
[h=3]1. Joe Blanton, Los Angeles Angels[/h]
Money profited: -$1,513
Team W-L: 4-15
Average betting line as favorite: minus-140 (13 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-124.5 (six starts)
To become the least profitable pitcher in baseball, you need to be a favorite in the majority of your starts (13), your ERA (5.53) and WHIP (1.55) need to be close to embarrassing, and the team you pitch for needs to keep sending you out there (19 starts). Blanton unfortunately has check marks for all three.
He's ranked 50th overall in run support, receiving 4.05 runs per game, which is 0.57 runs less than the Angels' per game average (4.62). One of Blanton's downfalls this season has been his atrocious (and unlucky) BABIP of .339, which is the second-worst in baseball. That said, it's hard to expect things to improve significantly in the second half.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Twins (H), Athletics (R), Blue Jays (H), Rangers (H) (*H= Home, R=Road)
Fade or bet: Don't fade, don't bet ... stay far, far away
[h=3]2. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies[/h] Money profited: -$1,274
Team W-L: 6-14
Average betting line as favorite: minus-150 (15 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-116.5 (five starts)
What a difference a year can make. Hamels ended the 2012 season as the 14th-most profitable pitcher in baseball, making bettors $844 and giving the Phillies 21 wins in 31 total starts. In just 20 starts this year, he has given back all of those profits and given bettors a net loss of $430 overall.
With four of Philadelphia's starters profiting a total of $1,455 in the first half, Hamels really ends up looking like the odd man out. His 3.40 runs per game of support ranks 12th from the bottom and the worst among Phillies starters. Hamels is receiving 1.37 fewer runs this season than the other starters.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Mets (R), Tigers (R), Giants (H), Cubs (H)
Fade or bet: Bet
[h=3]3. Dan Haren, Washington Nationals[/h]
Money profited: -$1,056
Team W-L: 4-13
Average betting line as favorite: minus-132 (eight starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-129 (nine starts)
In 2012, Haren was the least profitable pitcher in baseball, losing bettors more than $1,500 in total, which means that in his past 47 starts, he has lost bettors an absurd $2,584. More than half of Haren's 17 first-half starts in 2013 have come as an underdog, which gives him the opportunity to possibly stay afloat through September.
Haren's 2.59 runs per game in support is by far the worst in baseball for qualified starters, even though the Nationals rank 27th in runs scored per game (3.76) and 28th in hits per game (7.98).
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Pirates (H), Mets (H), Brewers (R), Braves (H)
Fade or bet: For Haren, this has to be rock bottom. Bet on him in the second half.
[h=3]4. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
Money profited: -$944
Team W-L: 4-8
Average betting line as favorite: minus-176 (11 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-112 (one start)
The biggest obstacle Price backers will have to overcome in the second half is his heavy lines across the board. Price's past three lines going into the All-Star break should scare bettors away instantaneously: minus-185, minus-225 and minus-320.
Granted, two of those starts were against the Astros, but with an average favorite price of more than minus-175, it will be very hard for Price to climb his way back to even money any time soon. By comparison, Matt Moore, who ranked sixth on the list of most profitable pitchers, had an average favorite price of minus-142 in the first half.
Like Hamels, Price's 2012 season was far different from the debacle of 2013. Price made bettors more than $700 last year with an average favorite price of minus-158.5, which is almost 20 cents less than this year's average favorite line. The Rays' sixth-ranked offense in baseball (4.68 runs per game) gives Price 1.01 fewer runs per game than their average.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Blue Jays (R), Red Sox (R), Diamondbacks (H) and (R)
Fade or bet: I believe Price's net profits will get closer to zero in the second half, but I would avoid betting his high prices going forward.
[h=3]5. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals[/h]
Money profited: -$926
Team W-L: 7-11
Average betting line as favorite: minus-164 (16 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-103 (two starts)
The second Nationals pitcher on this list is no coincidence, considering the mixture of lack of hitting (3.76 runs per game), preseason expectations (third-best odds to win World Series at 8-1) and low home profits ($52) -- even being nine games above .500 at 27-18.
Despite Washington going 19-9 in Strasburg's 28 starts in 2012, bettors were able to cash in on only $350 because of his high-priced lines. That is one of the key things about betting baseball: Expectations are not always a positive thing when handicapping pitchers.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Dodgers (H), Pirates (H), Mets (H), Brewers (R)
Fade or bet: Bet his road starts, fade his high-priced home starts
[h=3]6. Josh Johnson, Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
Money profited: -$741
Team W-L: 3-9
Average betting line as favorite: minus-145 (seven starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-113 (five starts)
When your two most noteworthy starters (Johnson and R.A. Dickey) are losing bettors a total of $1,259 in 32 starts, you know your season is not going the way you had planned. With the fourth-best odds to win the World Series (9-1) before the season started, Toronto has really failed to live up to expectations with its starting rotation. Blue Jays starters have an ERA of 5.07 this year, ranking them 29th in baseball, just ahead of the Minnesota Twins (5.23).
When Dickey or Johnson starts at home for the Blue Jays, their average home line as a favorite in the first half was just under minus-145, with only one of those 17 starts coming as an underdog. Toronto has the fourth-most home runs per game (5.07), but is only four games above .500 at home while losing bettors $86 in the process.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Dodgers (H), Astros (H), Angels (R), Mariners (R)
Fade or bet: Bet all starts under the favorite average threshold of minus-145
[h=3]7. Phil Hughes, New York Yankees[/h]
Money profited: -$705
Team W-L: 6-12
Average betting line as favorite: minus-122 (10 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-122 (eight starts)
One of the key reasons buying stock in Hughes in the second half may be a failing investment is because Hughes has the worst ground ball-to-fly ball ratio (G/F) in baseball at 0.46. Yankee Stadium ranks right in the middle of the pack in home runs hit this season (13th, 1,023), which puts this Hughes stat into perspective.
Hughes is currently receiving the fifth-worst run support in all of baseball (3.00 runs per game) and the worst among the Yankees' staff. The Yankees are 2-8 in Hughes' home starts this year, with an ERA of 5.63, while New York is 4-4 in his road starts with an ERA of 3.38.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Rangers (R), Rays (H), Padres (R), Tigers (H)
Fade or bet: Bet Hughes as an underdog; he is 4-4 this year with a profit of $82.
[h=3]8. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds[/h]
Money profited: -$643
Team W-L: 8-11
Average betting line as favorite: minus-150 (16 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-110 (three starts)
Bailey is ranked 73rd in run support, inheriting 3.58 runs per game, while receiving the fourth-best run support in the Reds' rotation and posting the highest ERA (3.82).
The third-place Reds have a run differential of plus-63, are 11 games above .500 and part of the toughest division in baseball outside the AL East. After Bailey threw his no-hitter July 2, he lost two straight starts going into the All-Star break.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Pirates (H), Dodgers (R), Padres (R), Athletics (H)
Fade or bet: Avoid starts where Bailey is a road favorite; he is 2-5 in those spots.
[h=3]9. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants[/h]
Money profited: -$628
Team W-L: 8-11
Average betting line as favorite: minus-135 (15 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-123 (four starts)
Cain and Tim Lincecum are both receiving the exact same run support per start from the Giants (3.79), but Cain's ERA is 0.80 points higher and he has lost bettors $194 more. Where Cain has really struggled this season is with runners on base:
Men on: .313 AVG, .395 OBP, .949 OPS
Nobody on: .178 AVG, .234 OBP, .553 OPS
San Francisco is just 2-6 in his last eight starts going into the All-Star break, with a net loss of $627 -- pretty much the entire story for Cain in the first half.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Diamondbacks (H), Cubs (H), Phillies (R), Brewers (H)
Fade or bet: Giants starters have allowed the fifth-most ER in MLB, so fade Cain's heavy-lined home starts.
[h=3]10. Edinson Volquez, San Diego Padres[/h]
Money profited: -$610
Team W-L: 7-13
Average betting line as favorite: minus-130 (three starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-129.5 (17 starts)
The Padres have the 25th-worst slugging percentage and the 28th-worst home slugging percentage in baseball. That's not a good combination with starting pitchers allowing the fourth-most earned runs (283; 0.52 ER/IP) in the first half.
Volquez has the highest ERA among the 10 pitchers on this list at 5.74. Whether it is on the road (5.70) or at home (5.79), Volquez just has not been able to get hitters out in any ballpark in the first half. No surprise, based on his ERA, but he is 1-7 as a starter this year when receiving between zero and two runs of support.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Cardinals (R), Brewers (R), Reds (H), Orioles (H)
Fade or bet: As long as his 17 starts as an underdog compared to three as a favorite continues, betting Volquez in the second half may not be a bad idea.
