With the second half of the MLB season beginning Friday, it's a perfect time to look at which pitchers under- or overperformed in the first half. From Vegas' perspective, this doesn't necessarily mean the pitchers with the best first-half records, but which pitchers have been most profitable for bettors.
With the top 10 most profitable starting pitchers each representing a different team, variety becomes the name of the game. These 10 pitchers started a combined 178 games with their respective teams, winning 72.4 percent of those starts for a record of 129-49. And three of the 10 pitchers were able to break the $1,000 profit barrier (making $100 per wager).
Let's now take a look at the 10 and find out whether you should bet or fade them in the second half.
[h=3]1. Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks[/h]
Money profited: $1,445
Team W-L: 17-2
Average betting line as favorite: minus-136.5 (16 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-131 (three starts)
If you take a look at the most profitable pitchers in baseball from the past three full regular seasons, you notice that all of them had profitable first and second halves, but one always at least doubled the other in terms of net profits:
Gio Gonzalez (2012)
First half: $1,068
Second half: $408
Full season: $1,476
Ian Kennedy (2011)
First half: $499
Second half: $1,285
Full season: $1,784
Kris Medlen (2010)
First half: $970
Second half: $321
Full season: $1,291
For Corbin to continue to lead baseball in profits, he is going to need the Diamondbacks to improve their run support from 4.63 runs per start (tied for 27th in baseball). The issue for Corbin will end up being the price he is tagged with in his upcoming home starts, because if he ends up losing any of those games, it will be hard to think the line would be any smaller than minus-150 against the Cubs, Padres or Mets.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Cubs (H), Padres (H), Red Sox (R), Mets (H) (*H= Home; R=Road)
Fade or bet: Bet early, fade late
[h=3]2. Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals[/h]
Money profited: $1,030
Team W-L: 15-4
Average betting line as favorite: minus-162 (16 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-110 (three starts)
Zimmermann has been able to put together a year and a half of really effective pitching based on profits. In 2012, he was ranked 13th on the MLB starter money list with a $946 profit, and has netted bettors a total of $1,976 total in his past 51 starts overall.
But just because Zimmermann has a very favorable schedule coming out of the All-Star break doesn't mean I believe he is an automatic bet.
The Nationals haven't hit well this season -- they are 27th in runs per game and 24th in batting average in balls in play (.285) -- which becomes a very dangerous proposition when having to lay high odds.
At 4.53 runs per game, Zimmerman has received the 33rd-best run support in baseball, which is one of the reasons I believe his profits from the first half can be viewed as a bit of a mirage. And if the Nationals begin to make a push to catch the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, by the time August comes around the lines also will become a bit more inflated.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Dodgers (H), Mets (H), Tigers (R), Braves (H)
Fade or bet: Fade
[h=3]3. Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics[/h]
Money profited: $1,013
Team W-L: 15-4
Average betting line as favorite: minus-139 (15 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-111 (four starts)
You can't talk about Colon and the success he has had in 2013 without mentioning the ugly word "Biogenesis." As rumors swirl about the fate of the 20-plus players listed in the investigation, it's difficult to sit here and tell anyone to "buy" any stock in any of these players, especially a 40-year-old with a 2.70 ERA in almost 127 IP in just the first half.
However, the Athletics are currently ranked fifth in baseball in road runs scored at 4.74 (almost a half-run better than their home average), Colon was a favorite in 10 consecutive starts going into the All-Star break (going 9-1 during that span) and right now he's receiving the fourth-best run support in baseball at 5.58 runs per start. Plus, he hasn't finished a season with an ERA below 3.00 since 2002. All that being said, there's just too much uncertainty surrounding him right now.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Angels (R), Angels (H), Blue Jays (H), Reds (R)
Fade or bet: No bet based on speculations
[h=3]4. Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians[/h]
Money profited: $972
Team W-L: 13-6
Average betting line as favorite: minus-120 (eight starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-143 (11 starts)
As a starting pitcher, one of the worst things you can do on a consistent basis is walk hitters -- not only does it put men on base, but it raises your pitch count and doesn't give your fielders an opportunity to make a play. In 70 of his past 71 starts, Jimenez has allowed at least one walk.
The fact that Jimenez is the fourth-most profitable pitcher is a bit of a phenomenon because no pitcher on this list has both a higher average betting line as an underdog and more starts as an underdog than he does.
He is receiving the 15th-best run support in baseball at 5.16 runs per game. With a 4.56 ERA, he has the highest ERA among not only pitchers on this list, but among all starters in MLB above a profit margin of $500 (23 total pitchers). He also has received five or more runs of support in 13 of his 19 total starts. Don't look for that to continue.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Mariners (R), Rangers (H), Marlins (R), Tigers (H)
Fade or bet: Fade
[h=3]5. Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox[/h]
Money profited: $942
Team W-L: 11-1
Average betting line as favorite: minus-164 (10 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-111 (2 starts)
Despite the fact that Buchholz has been injured with a neck strain since the beginning of June and isn't supposed to see the field till at least the end of July, he is still the fifth-most profitable pitcher in baseball.
Boston leads baseball in runs scored per game, which obviously helps the rotation in terms of wins and profits, and that is why Buchholz's average of 5.25 runs of support per start isn't a huge surprise. However, look for inflated lines when he does come back into the rotation (he was already minus-140 in back-to-back road starts before hitting the DL). Therefore, it's best to wait and see his performance after he returns.
Projected opponents starting in August: Diamondbacks (H), Astros (R), Royals (R), Blue Jays (R), Yankees (H)
Fade or bet: Based on injury, wait to see performance when he returns to rotation.
[h=3]6. Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
Money profited: $941
Team W-L: 15-4
Average betting line as favorite: minus-142 (17 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-122 (two starts)
Sometimes it is a huge benefit to not be the No. 1 starter in a very talented rotation, and that is what has happened to Moore in 2013. With only two lines above minus-140 early, Moore started 9-0 and basically trotted his way into late May with a net profit of $911. As the sports books usually do, they began to adjust their lines and in his next 10 starts, he was a favorite in nine of them and had lines north of minus-160 four times.
The Rays are 8-1 as a team when Moore starts the game for them on the road, and his opponent batting average and slugging percentage are both better on the road than they are at home.
Buster Olney ranked the Rays with the second-most difficult schedule in the second half, but I think that will result in lighter lines for Moore -- and he's a good enough pitcher to defeat tough-hitting lineups. It also helps that the Rays have the sixth-most productive offense in baseball, scoring 4.68 runs per game.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Red Sox (R), Yankees (R), Giants (H), Dodgers (R)
Fade or bet: Bet
[h=3]7. Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles[/h]
Money profited: $930
Team W-L: 14-5
Average betting line as favorite: minus-127 (12 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-118 (seven starts)
In the past season and a half (34 starts), Tillman has profited bettors a total of $1,589, and the Orioles are 24-10 during that span.
Tillman has had only one line above minus-150, and though his 3.95 ERA is second-worst on this list, Baltimore has given him 5.37 runs of support a game. He should be bet strictly on if the line is above or below minus-125.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Rangers (R), Red Sox (H), Astros (H), Padres (R)
Fade or bet: Bet below his average favorite line of around minus-125, fade any higher
[h=3]8. Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]
Money profited: $785
Team W-L: 11-3
Average betting line as favorite: minus-146 (nine starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-112 (five starts)
The story of the Dodgers' season so far is basically "with high expectations come even higher odds." The Dodgers currently have three starting pitchers with unit profits of minus-$500 each (only four other teams in all of baseball even have two starting pitchers below the minus-$500 threshold). Since Greinke came back from a month-long injury, he has had 11 starts with lines under minus-150.
Lower lines are the reason Greinke is on this list of the most profitable pitchers in baseball, because the Dodgers' offense has been anemic this season, producing 3.83 runs per game (26th). Greinke's run support of 4.79 runs per game ranks him 74th for both qualifying and non-qualifying starters.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Nationals (R), Reds (H), Yankees (H), Cardinals (R)
Fade or bet: At under minus-150, Greinke will be a "bet" for me in the second half, as I see the Dodgers staying in the division and the wild-card race till the end.
[h=3]9. Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers[/h]
Money profited: $767
Team W-L: 15-4
Average betting line as favorite: minus-176 (19 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: None (0 starts)
Scherzer is the only pitcher on this list to be a favorite in every start the first half of the regular season, and for that reason, building a net profit of more than $700 is an impressive feat. Based on the ridiculous inflated lines the Tigers have gotten and will continue to get this entire season (his average home line has been about minus-210), it's tough to suggest riding the Scherzer train past the All-Star break.
The only thing going for him in the second half is the fact he is receiving the second-most support in all of baseball with 5.89 runs per game. Looking at the top 10 pitchers in terms of run support, no starting pitcher has a larger disparity between his WHIP and the run support he receives (4.91) than Scherzer. And it's unlikely that he keeps pitching this well in the second half, while the lines will remain inflated.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: White Sox (R), Phillies (H), White Sox (H), Indians (R), White Sox (R)
Fade or bet: Fade, purely based on the upcoming lines for Scherzer.
[h=3]10. Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies[/h]
Money profited: $747
Team W-L: 13-6
Average betting line as favorite: minus-140 (nine starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-134 (10 starts)
No team in baseball has a larger disparity between runs scored at home (5.23) and on the road (3.67), which isn't surprising for a team that plays its home games at Coors Field. It's even more impressive that De La Rosa is on this list, considering that 11 of his 19 starts have been on the road. But the Rockies are 5-0 at home this season when De La Rosa pitches and the line is minus-150 or lower.
Currently ranked 49th in run support, look for De la Rosa to continue his strong start, but only bet him at home in the right spots.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Cubs (H), Braves (R), Pirates (R, H)
Fade or bet: Bet on De La Rosa as an under minus-150 favorite at home.
With the top 10 most profitable starting pitchers each representing a different team, variety becomes the name of the game. These 10 pitchers started a combined 178 games with their respective teams, winning 72.4 percent of those starts for a record of 129-49. And three of the 10 pitchers were able to break the $1,000 profit barrier (making $100 per wager).
Let's now take a look at the 10 and find out whether you should bet or fade them in the second half.
[h=3]1. Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks[/h]
Money profited: $1,445
Team W-L: 17-2
Average betting line as favorite: minus-136.5 (16 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-131 (three starts)
If you take a look at the most profitable pitchers in baseball from the past three full regular seasons, you notice that all of them had profitable first and second halves, but one always at least doubled the other in terms of net profits:
Gio Gonzalez (2012)
First half: $1,068
Second half: $408
Full season: $1,476
Ian Kennedy (2011)
First half: $499
Second half: $1,285
Full season: $1,784
Kris Medlen (2010)
First half: $970
Second half: $321
Full season: $1,291
For Corbin to continue to lead baseball in profits, he is going to need the Diamondbacks to improve their run support from 4.63 runs per start (tied for 27th in baseball). The issue for Corbin will end up being the price he is tagged with in his upcoming home starts, because if he ends up losing any of those games, it will be hard to think the line would be any smaller than minus-150 against the Cubs, Padres or Mets.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Cubs (H), Padres (H), Red Sox (R), Mets (H) (*H= Home; R=Road)
Fade or bet: Bet early, fade late
[h=3]2. Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals[/h]
Money profited: $1,030
Team W-L: 15-4
Average betting line as favorite: minus-162 (16 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-110 (three starts)
Zimmermann has been able to put together a year and a half of really effective pitching based on profits. In 2012, he was ranked 13th on the MLB starter money list with a $946 profit, and has netted bettors a total of $1,976 total in his past 51 starts overall.
But just because Zimmermann has a very favorable schedule coming out of the All-Star break doesn't mean I believe he is an automatic bet.
The Nationals haven't hit well this season -- they are 27th in runs per game and 24th in batting average in balls in play (.285) -- which becomes a very dangerous proposition when having to lay high odds.
At 4.53 runs per game, Zimmerman has received the 33rd-best run support in baseball, which is one of the reasons I believe his profits from the first half can be viewed as a bit of a mirage. And if the Nationals begin to make a push to catch the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, by the time August comes around the lines also will become a bit more inflated.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Dodgers (H), Mets (H), Tigers (R), Braves (H)
Fade or bet: Fade
[h=3]3. Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics[/h]
Money profited: $1,013
Team W-L: 15-4
Average betting line as favorite: minus-139 (15 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-111 (four starts)
You can't talk about Colon and the success he has had in 2013 without mentioning the ugly word "Biogenesis." As rumors swirl about the fate of the 20-plus players listed in the investigation, it's difficult to sit here and tell anyone to "buy" any stock in any of these players, especially a 40-year-old with a 2.70 ERA in almost 127 IP in just the first half.
However, the Athletics are currently ranked fifth in baseball in road runs scored at 4.74 (almost a half-run better than their home average), Colon was a favorite in 10 consecutive starts going into the All-Star break (going 9-1 during that span) and right now he's receiving the fourth-best run support in baseball at 5.58 runs per start. Plus, he hasn't finished a season with an ERA below 3.00 since 2002. All that being said, there's just too much uncertainty surrounding him right now.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Angels (R), Angels (H), Blue Jays (H), Reds (R)
Fade or bet: No bet based on speculations
[h=3]4. Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians[/h]
Money profited: $972
Team W-L: 13-6
Average betting line as favorite: minus-120 (eight starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-143 (11 starts)
As a starting pitcher, one of the worst things you can do on a consistent basis is walk hitters -- not only does it put men on base, but it raises your pitch count and doesn't give your fielders an opportunity to make a play. In 70 of his past 71 starts, Jimenez has allowed at least one walk.
The fact that Jimenez is the fourth-most profitable pitcher is a bit of a phenomenon because no pitcher on this list has both a higher average betting line as an underdog and more starts as an underdog than he does.
He is receiving the 15th-best run support in baseball at 5.16 runs per game. With a 4.56 ERA, he has the highest ERA among not only pitchers on this list, but among all starters in MLB above a profit margin of $500 (23 total pitchers). He also has received five or more runs of support in 13 of his 19 total starts. Don't look for that to continue.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Mariners (R), Rangers (H), Marlins (R), Tigers (H)
Fade or bet: Fade
[h=3]5. Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox[/h]
Money profited: $942
Team W-L: 11-1
Average betting line as favorite: minus-164 (10 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-111 (2 starts)
Despite the fact that Buchholz has been injured with a neck strain since the beginning of June and isn't supposed to see the field till at least the end of July, he is still the fifth-most profitable pitcher in baseball.
Boston leads baseball in runs scored per game, which obviously helps the rotation in terms of wins and profits, and that is why Buchholz's average of 5.25 runs of support per start isn't a huge surprise. However, look for inflated lines when he does come back into the rotation (he was already minus-140 in back-to-back road starts before hitting the DL). Therefore, it's best to wait and see his performance after he returns.
Projected opponents starting in August: Diamondbacks (H), Astros (R), Royals (R), Blue Jays (R), Yankees (H)
Fade or bet: Based on injury, wait to see performance when he returns to rotation.
[h=3]6. Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
Money profited: $941
Team W-L: 15-4
Average betting line as favorite: minus-142 (17 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-122 (two starts)
Sometimes it is a huge benefit to not be the No. 1 starter in a very talented rotation, and that is what has happened to Moore in 2013. With only two lines above minus-140 early, Moore started 9-0 and basically trotted his way into late May with a net profit of $911. As the sports books usually do, they began to adjust their lines and in his next 10 starts, he was a favorite in nine of them and had lines north of minus-160 four times.
The Rays are 8-1 as a team when Moore starts the game for them on the road, and his opponent batting average and slugging percentage are both better on the road than they are at home.
Buster Olney ranked the Rays with the second-most difficult schedule in the second half, but I think that will result in lighter lines for Moore -- and he's a good enough pitcher to defeat tough-hitting lineups. It also helps that the Rays have the sixth-most productive offense in baseball, scoring 4.68 runs per game.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Red Sox (R), Yankees (R), Giants (H), Dodgers (R)
Fade or bet: Bet
[h=3]7. Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles[/h]
Money profited: $930
Team W-L: 14-5
Average betting line as favorite: minus-127 (12 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-118 (seven starts)
In the past season and a half (34 starts), Tillman has profited bettors a total of $1,589, and the Orioles are 24-10 during that span.
Tillman has had only one line above minus-150, and though his 3.95 ERA is second-worst on this list, Baltimore has given him 5.37 runs of support a game. He should be bet strictly on if the line is above or below minus-125.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Rangers (R), Red Sox (H), Astros (H), Padres (R)
Fade or bet: Bet below his average favorite line of around minus-125, fade any higher
[h=3]8. Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]
Money profited: $785
Team W-L: 11-3
Average betting line as favorite: minus-146 (nine starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-112 (five starts)
The story of the Dodgers' season so far is basically "with high expectations come even higher odds." The Dodgers currently have three starting pitchers with unit profits of minus-$500 each (only four other teams in all of baseball even have two starting pitchers below the minus-$500 threshold). Since Greinke came back from a month-long injury, he has had 11 starts with lines under minus-150.
Lower lines are the reason Greinke is on this list of the most profitable pitchers in baseball, because the Dodgers' offense has been anemic this season, producing 3.83 runs per game (26th). Greinke's run support of 4.79 runs per game ranks him 74th for both qualifying and non-qualifying starters.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Nationals (R), Reds (H), Yankees (H), Cardinals (R)
Fade or bet: At under minus-150, Greinke will be a "bet" for me in the second half, as I see the Dodgers staying in the division and the wild-card race till the end.
[h=3]9. Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers[/h]
Money profited: $767
Team W-L: 15-4
Average betting line as favorite: minus-176 (19 starts)
Average betting line as underdog: None (0 starts)
Scherzer is the only pitcher on this list to be a favorite in every start the first half of the regular season, and for that reason, building a net profit of more than $700 is an impressive feat. Based on the ridiculous inflated lines the Tigers have gotten and will continue to get this entire season (his average home line has been about minus-210), it's tough to suggest riding the Scherzer train past the All-Star break.
The only thing going for him in the second half is the fact he is receiving the second-most support in all of baseball with 5.89 runs per game. Looking at the top 10 pitchers in terms of run support, no starting pitcher has a larger disparity between his WHIP and the run support he receives (4.91) than Scherzer. And it's unlikely that he keeps pitching this well in the second half, while the lines will remain inflated.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: White Sox (R), Phillies (H), White Sox (H), Indians (R), White Sox (R)
Fade or bet: Fade, purely based on the upcoming lines for Scherzer.
[h=3]10. Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies[/h]
Money profited: $747
Team W-L: 13-6
Average betting line as favorite: minus-140 (nine starts)
Average betting line as underdog: plus-134 (10 starts)
No team in baseball has a larger disparity between runs scored at home (5.23) and on the road (3.67), which isn't surprising for a team that plays its home games at Coors Field. It's even more impressive that De La Rosa is on this list, considering that 11 of his 19 starts have been on the road. But the Rockies are 5-0 at home this season when De La Rosa pitches and the line is minus-150 or lower.
Currently ranked 49th in run support, look for De la Rosa to continue his strong start, but only bet him at home in the right spots.
Projected opponents after All-Star break: Cubs (H), Braves (R), Pirates (R, H)
Fade or bet: Bet on De La Rosa as an under minus-150 favorite at home.
