Hello all, It's been a solid 1st half for me betting the bases, so I figure I'd post my picks during the second half. All my lines are from 5Dimes.
Here's what I got for tonight:
Cubbies +122: 1.00/1.22-
Riding the Garza train as he is pitching spectacularly of late and has won his last 5 starts with 33/8 K/BB in that span. The Cubs offense isn't as bad as perceived these days, Castro is finally starting to hit and Soriano seems to be finding his annual summer groove.
On the Flipside, name me a productive hitter on the D-Backs that isn't named Goldschmidt, its not easy to do. Also, the D Backs are running young lefty Tyler Skaggs out there tonight. While he is a highly touted prospect, he lives in the high 80's/low 90's with his fastball, and i'm not a fan of backing young pitchers who rely on commanding the corners. I'll take the better pitcher and very comparable offense at this price all day.
Twinkies +164 1.00/1.64-
Joe Blanton gave up 23 home runs BEFORE THE ALL STAR BREAK. This guy's been plagued by gopheritis his entire career, and that career is dwindling to an end in Los Angeles this year. Blanton has always been a popular buy low type because of his great K/BB over the years, but now with his line drive rate over 22% for 2 consectuive years and his inability to keep the ball on the ground, he becomes a great fade candidate. The wind will also be blowing out slightly to right center (7MPH), which doesnt help Blanton's cause.
For Minnesota, Sam Deduno brings an entirely different skill set to the table. While he has a hard time generating swings and misses (4.48 K/9), the man is a ground ball machine with a GB/FB ratio of just over 3 and has done a good job this year controlling the walks (2.89 BB/9). Keeping the ball on the ground is a big help against the angels who have quite a few low AVG/high PWR type hitters (Trumbo, Pujols, Hamilton). While LAA certainly has the advantage in the hitting department, I love taking a respectable starter against a ticking time bomb at +164.
Jays -120 1.20/1.00-
On the surface, Josh Johnson looks like a shadow of his old self. But if we look a little deeper, he is a guy who is showing signs of getting back on track. Over his last 7 starts he does have a 4.99 ERA, but he also has nice K/BB of 42/14 in 40 IP. The culprit of this bad ERA is a strand rate of 62% (75% for his career). Also, if you look at his last 7 opponents, you can understand why hes been having trouble lately ( Baltimore twice, Detroit, Boston, Cleveland, Texas, Colorado). That's essentially a who's who of the best offenses in the game. While the dodgers are playing well recently, I don't see their offense being nearly as dangerous as the teams listed.
The Dodgers are sending lefty Hyun Jin Ryu to face the Jays. Ryu had a very successful first half, but his skills really declined over his last 6 starts. During that stretch of 37.1 innings his K/BB was 20/16, a hideous sign. Something tells me the book might now be out on Ryu, the league takes a while to adjust to new pitchers and discover their tendencies. Bautista and Encarnacion might be in for a pleasant evening, wouldn't be suprised to see them both take Ryu yard. These pitchers are trending in different directions, I'll gladly buy the ascending starter with a solid offense at home for a small price of -120.
Over/Under Fun- I'll make the occasional O/U bet but I'm not gonna track them unless I indicate otherwise
Tigers/Wsox U 7.5 -125
Scherzer and Sale, not much more needs to be said. Two of the nastiest pitchers in all of baseball facing off head to head in the game of the night. While the cell isnt the best park to take an under, I don't see this one going over unless Detroit knocks Sale around or a bullpen implosion. I also like the under 4 (-130) for the first five innings to avoid any bullpen mess.
Good luck!
Here's what I got for tonight:
Cubbies +122: 1.00/1.22-
Riding the Garza train as he is pitching spectacularly of late and has won his last 5 starts with 33/8 K/BB in that span. The Cubs offense isn't as bad as perceived these days, Castro is finally starting to hit and Soriano seems to be finding his annual summer groove.
On the Flipside, name me a productive hitter on the D-Backs that isn't named Goldschmidt, its not easy to do. Also, the D Backs are running young lefty Tyler Skaggs out there tonight. While he is a highly touted prospect, he lives in the high 80's/low 90's with his fastball, and i'm not a fan of backing young pitchers who rely on commanding the corners. I'll take the better pitcher and very comparable offense at this price all day.
Twinkies +164 1.00/1.64-
Joe Blanton gave up 23 home runs BEFORE THE ALL STAR BREAK. This guy's been plagued by gopheritis his entire career, and that career is dwindling to an end in Los Angeles this year. Blanton has always been a popular buy low type because of his great K/BB over the years, but now with his line drive rate over 22% for 2 consectuive years and his inability to keep the ball on the ground, he becomes a great fade candidate. The wind will also be blowing out slightly to right center (7MPH), which doesnt help Blanton's cause.
For Minnesota, Sam Deduno brings an entirely different skill set to the table. While he has a hard time generating swings and misses (4.48 K/9), the man is a ground ball machine with a GB/FB ratio of just over 3 and has done a good job this year controlling the walks (2.89 BB/9). Keeping the ball on the ground is a big help against the angels who have quite a few low AVG/high PWR type hitters (Trumbo, Pujols, Hamilton). While LAA certainly has the advantage in the hitting department, I love taking a respectable starter against a ticking time bomb at +164.
Jays -120 1.20/1.00-
On the surface, Josh Johnson looks like a shadow of his old self. But if we look a little deeper, he is a guy who is showing signs of getting back on track. Over his last 7 starts he does have a 4.99 ERA, but he also has nice K/BB of 42/14 in 40 IP. The culprit of this bad ERA is a strand rate of 62% (75% for his career). Also, if you look at his last 7 opponents, you can understand why hes been having trouble lately ( Baltimore twice, Detroit, Boston, Cleveland, Texas, Colorado). That's essentially a who's who of the best offenses in the game. While the dodgers are playing well recently, I don't see their offense being nearly as dangerous as the teams listed.
The Dodgers are sending lefty Hyun Jin Ryu to face the Jays. Ryu had a very successful first half, but his skills really declined over his last 6 starts. During that stretch of 37.1 innings his K/BB was 20/16, a hideous sign. Something tells me the book might now be out on Ryu, the league takes a while to adjust to new pitchers and discover their tendencies. Bautista and Encarnacion might be in for a pleasant evening, wouldn't be suprised to see them both take Ryu yard. These pitchers are trending in different directions, I'll gladly buy the ascending starter with a solid offense at home for a small price of -120.
Over/Under Fun- I'll make the occasional O/U bet but I'm not gonna track them unless I indicate otherwise
Tigers/Wsox U 7.5 -125
Scherzer and Sale, not much more needs to be said. Two of the nastiest pitchers in all of baseball facing off head to head in the game of the night. While the cell isnt the best park to take an under, I don't see this one going over unless Detroit knocks Sale around or a bullpen implosion. I also like the under 4 (-130) for the first five innings to avoid any bullpen mess.
Good luck!
