Service Plays Tuesday 7/23/13

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GL!

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

The Montreal Alouettes opened the 2013 CFL season with high hopes and +400 odds of winning their first Grey Cup since 2010. Things haven’t gone as planned for the Als, who head into Week 5’s encounter with the Edmonton Eskimos at 1-3 SU on the year and set as 5-point favorites. Montreal’s offense is at the bottom of the CFL barrel, averaging just 275.2 yards per game – most noticeably the rushing attack which has stammered for an average of 67 yards.

The Als have some serious tinkering to do on their bye week, which so happens to follow this Thursday’s home game. New head coach Dan Hawkins is feeling the pressure and a break would allow him to re-think his game plan - or career path. His players are also feeling the crunch and could be miles away – mentally - from Percival Molson Memorial Stadium with some vacation around the corner.

Letdown spot

Don’t give the Baltimore Ravens any extra motivation. You never know what could happen. Last year, Ray Lewis’ swan song carried the club to a Super Bowl. Now, everybody and their dog are banking on a Baltimore downgrade in 2013. But the club can prove them wrong with a strong showing versus the Broncos – this year’s Super Bowl fave – in the Week 1 opener.

Win or lose that Thursday Night Football matchup, the Ravens are ripe for a letdown at home hosting the Cleveland Browns in Week 2. Early odds have Baltimore set as a 7.5-point favorite coming off an emotional season opener, on a night when it will celebrate its Super Bowl title. The Ravens were 3.5-point chalk in both meetings with Cleveland last year, covering in each game.

Schedule spot

The mish-mash MLB interleague schedule marches on with random matchups each week. Over bettors are licking their chops with the upcoming AL-versus-NL battle between the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies – the top two over teams in the majors. Combined, the Tigers and Phillies are 105-88-3 over/under as of Monday, topping the total in more than 54 percent of their games.

Philadelphia comes to the Motor City for three games, starting Friday. The teams haven’t met in interleague play since 2007, when they played over the number in two of three games at Philadelphia. So far in 2013, Detroit has gone 6-3 over/under versus NL foes while Philadelphia is 7-10 over/under in interleague play.

Tuesday's National League betting cheat sheet and tips

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Tuesday's National League games:

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants (OFF, OFF) (Game 1)

Cold pitching stat: Reds starter Greg Reynolds will make his first start since 2011 as a member of the Colorado Rockies.

Cold batting stat: Reds slugger Joey Votto has just two homers in 20 career games at San Fran's AT&T Park.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-60s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The Reds are 4-12 in their last 16 opening games of a double-header.


Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals (-105, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Since winning his first four starts, Pirates starter Gerrit Cole has lost his last three heading into Tuesday.

Cold batting stat: Pirates slugger Pedro Alvarez was 0-for-8 with three strikeouts this season against Washington heading into Monday's game.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-90s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The Pirates are 11-4 in their last 15 Tuesday games.


Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (+120, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Braves SP Kris Medlen is 1-0 in two starts versus the Mets this season. He has 16 strikeouts in 13 innings against the Mets - the most K's against any team he's pitched against this season.

Cold batting stat: The Braves roster hits a collective .136 (22 at-bats) against Mets starter Carlos Torres.

Weather: There is a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Braves are 9-1 in Medlen's last 10 Tuesday starts.


San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (-129, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Tyson Ross is slated to start for the Padres. He has not started since April 17 but limited the Dodgers to one run in 4 2/3 innings of work in that last outing.

Cold batting stat: Milwaukee's Ryan Braun was handed a season-ending suspension Monday.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The Padres are 3-14 in their last 17 games versus a right-handed starter.


Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals (-182, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Phillies starter Jonathan Pettibone is 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his three starts in July.

Cold batting stat: Prior to Monday's game, the Cardinals were one of just four NL teams that Phils slugger Domonic Brown had not homered against this season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The Cardinals are 4-0 in SP Shelby Miller's last four home starts versus a team with a losing record.


Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (-139, 9.5)

Hot pitching stat: Marlins starter Jose Fernandez boasts an ERA of 1.80 and 19 strikeouts in 20 innings in July.

Cold batting stat: Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton is just 1-for-6 with three strikeouts versus Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Marlins are 4-0 in Fernandez's last four starts versus a team with a losing record.


Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks (OFF, OFF)

Hot pitching stat: Cubs starter Travis Wood is tied with the Cards' Adam Wainwright and Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw for the NL lead in quality starts with 17.

Hot batting stat: Prior to Monday's game, the Cubbies had swatted 20 dingers in July.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-100s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 10 mph.

Key betting note: The Diamondbacks are 19-2 in SP Patrick Corbin's last 21 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.


San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (OFF, OFF) (Game 2)

Cold pitching stat: The Giants have lost seven of Barry Zito's last eight starts. Zito owns a 7.50 ERA in three July starts.

Hot batting stat: Reds 2B Brandon Phillips is 8-for-20 (.400) with three doubles and six walks in his career versus Zito.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-60s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: Giants are 5-2 in their last seven second games of a double-header.

NOTE: The second game of the Reds/Giants double header is the result of the July 4 game that was postponed due to rain. The Reds will bat last in Game 2 but, for statistical purposes, the Giants are the home team for both games.

* Odds courtesy of BetOnline.com

** Odds, probable pitchers, stats and weather forecast as of 9:00 p.m. ET.

Tuesday's American League betting cheat sheet and tips

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Tuesday's American League games:

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-152, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: Sox starter Jon Lester owns a 6.35 ERA while suffering consecutive losses in his previous two starts.

Hot batting stat: Sox DH David Ortiz is 9-for-22 (.409) lifetime versus Rays starter Roberto Hernandez.

Weather: There is a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the high-70s and wind will blow out to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 4-0 in Hernandez's last four road starts.


New York Yankees at Texas Rangers (-165, 9.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rangers starter Alexi Ogando will make his first start since June 5. The Rangers had won his last four starts prior to being placed on the DL.

Cold batting stat: Rangers slugger Adrian Beltre is 3-for-18 (.167) with six strikeouts in his career versus Yanks scheduled-starter Phil Hughes.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-90s and sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 9-1-1 in Ogando's last 11 starts overall.


Oakland A's at Houston Astros (+154, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: While not factoring in the decisions himself, the A's have lost SP Jarrod Parker's last four starts overall.

Cold batting stat: This will be the first time the 'Stros face Parker and the first time the A's face Houston starter Jarred Cosart.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-90s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The Athletics are 7-3 in Parker's last 10 starts versus the American League West.


Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (+116, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Tigers starter Rick Porcello is fresh off a victory over the Pale Hose on July 10. He held the Sox to three runs on seven hits over six innings.

Cold batting stat: Sox SS Alexei Ramirez is 5-for-33 (.152) in his career versus Porcello.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The White Sox are 1-6 in SP Hector Santiago's last seven home starts.


Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (-105, 9)

Cold pitching stat: O's starter Jason Hammel was roughed up his last time out. Hammel surrendered 10 hits and six earned runs en route to a 7-3 loss to the Blue Jays on July 13.

Hot batting stat: Orioles slugger Adam Jones has six hits - including one homer and five RBIs - in 16 at-bats in his career versus Royals starter Bruce Chen.

Weather: There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and wind will blow in from left field at 15 mph.

Key betting note: The Orioles are 0-4 in Hammel's last four starts versus a team with a losing record.


Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (-171, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Tommy Hanson will get the nod for the Angles and it will be his first start since coming off the DL. In his last outing, he gave up seven ER and six hits in two innings of work against the Seattle Mariners on June 20.

Cold batting stat: Twins OF Josh Willingham is 1-for-12 (.083) in his career versus Hanson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Angels score an average of 4.09 runs per game and give up 3.64 runs per game when wind blows out to right field.


Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners (+102, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Zach McAllister is slated to start for Cleveland. He limited the Mariners to two runs on six hits in 7 1/3 innings of work as the Indians triumphed 5-4 on May 18.

Cold batting stat: In that same game, Kyle Seager and Michael Morse both finished 0-for-4 against the combination of McAllister and the Tribe pen.

Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the high-70s. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Mariners are 1-4 in SP Erasmo Ramirez's last five home starts.

Interleague

Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays (-110, 9.5)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers starter Chris Capuano has not given up an earned run in three of his previous five starts.

Hot batting stat: Collectively, the Blue Jays roster has hit .296 versus Capuano.

Weather: The roof may be closed in Toronto due to a 30 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the low-70s and wind will blow in from left field at 15 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 5-0 in Capuano's last five interleague starts.

* Odds courtesy of BetOnline.com

** Odds, probable pitchers, stats and weather forecast as of 8:30 p.m. ET.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Rangers on Monday and likes the Red Sox on Tuesday.

The deficit is 1445 sirignanos.

Chicago Syndicate Tuesday Top Plays (Might Add)

Al Game of the Month - Tigers -123

Red Sox -145
Rangers/Yankees Over 9.5
Royals +105
Cubs/Diamondbacks Under 8

LA Syndicate Tuesday Top Plays

AL Total of the Month - Angels/Twins Over 8.5

Royals +105
A's/Astros Under 8.5
Tigers -125
Indians +100

TMC Sports Advisors 0723


Nacionales de Washington

Tigres de Detroit

Cerveceros de Milwaukee

Marlines de Miami /Padres de San Diego Under 9

Suerte
The Broker

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Tampa Bay at Boston[/h] The Red Sox look to bounce back from last night's loss and take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is 0-5 in Roberto Hernandez' last 5 starts as a road underdog. Boston is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]New York at Indiana[/h] The Fever look to build on their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 games when playing against a team with a losing SU record. Indiana is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1068-798 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner TUES Indians PK

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Tuesday

Marlins/Rockies under 9.5

Joe Wiz

Bonus Play Tuesday Cleveland/Seattle Under 9

K1 sports

Pittsburgh

Hondo

Hondo eyes Ray payday

Hondo bounced back from his Sunday double-beating by scoring easily with the Reds, who trimmed the debt to 505 doerrs by proving him prescient with his Lincecum Post-No-Hitter-Letdown Theory.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will seek a contribution from the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona – 20 units on the Rays to show some pop against Jonny Lager.

DAVE ESSLER

Tuesday MLB Thoughts

Pirates-Washington: Starters essentially a wash, and I'd much rather play Washington against a RHP, so this one depends on bullpens on Monday (for me, at this point). The weather might be conducive for runs to be scored, and I can see this going to 8.5.

Atlanta-New York: There is no doubt in my mind that Carlos Torres is better than Kris Medlen, and there is no doubt that the Braves have a better lineup, hence they are favored. However, if the Mets don't use a ton of bullpen and someone, say McCann, sits tomorrow, I can see taking Dub's Mets here.

San Diego-Milwaukee: Hard to say how this Braun thing effects these guys, not just from a "he's not playing" standpoint, but perhaps the rest of the team feels "cheated" for lack of a better word. I would be more concerned about that for the next week with this team rather than who's playing whom. Ross gets a rare start, meaning we might see the Padres pen sooner rather than later, and ditto for Hand. Tough game to read.

Phillies-Cardinals: Don't look now but the Phillies are in second place in the NL East. Yes, sub .500, but 7 games out and don't tell them they can't catch they Braves. Motivation matters from here on out as teams start to "quit" or call up next years' potential talent. Miller's been giving up flyballs and he is (has been) simply not the dominant pitcher he was early in the season. Pettibone has kept the Phillies in most games, and that ML for the Cardinals is just too much. Looking at the Phillies RL here.

Miami-Colorado: Fernandez is clearly the Fish's best option more often than not, and I have never felt that Chacin was worth all the fuss, at least in Coors. Because Miami CAN hit, there is no chance of laying -150 on Colorado. Miami RL or nothing, but this is one that clearly depends on what happens Monday night.

Rays-Red Sox: I simply can't back Jon Lester coming off the rest/DL whatever. He may well be the Lester of old, but I can't lay that price. Fausto has been reborn in Tampa Bay, and there's no trusting Boston's bullpen with Lester perhaps on a pitch count. Have to lean Rays here, inasmuch as it hurts Kyle.

Yankees-Rangers: Again, simply not laying -160 on a pitcher coming of the DL. Just not an option.That's even more the case with a 100 degree heat and a pitch count. We all know Hughes has been better on the road, and he's beaten the Rangers once this season already. Looking again at the Yankees or the Yankees RL.

Orioles at Royals: Have to wonder here if Chen isn't a little motivated to pitch against one of his former teams. He certainly looked good against the Indians, so I wouldn't rule out taking the Royals here. Lefties CAN take SOME of the pop out of Davis and Markakis, and he's done well against Weiters. Hammel has regressed quite a bit since the good start, so it's (gulp) Royals or nothing.

Oakland-Houston: So Jarred Cosart shuts down the Rays on two hits and is a home dog to the vaunted A's. The kids from League City which is not far from Houston at all. Just how will he handle 50% of the crowd being free tickets he probably had to get. Parker giving up a lot more bombs on the road (as you'd expect) so I wouldn't rule out the Astros here.

Detroit-Chicago: Again, the White Sox and their impending personnel implosion are probably not something I wany my money behind, regardless of how good Santiago CAN be. I have never been a Porcello fan for some reason, but he just beat the White Sox last start, so perhaps Chicago returns the favor. I have not looked at the weather, but somehow think their may be some runs scored.

Twins-Angels: Once again, there is no chance of taking Hanson at any price, let alone -175, coming off the DL. If he was that good he'd still be in Atlanta, so I lean Twins and/or Twins RL here or nothing whatsoever.

Cleveland-Seattle: Ramirez has had his moments, but two weeks ago (his last/only start) he needed 101 pitches and could get out of the 5th inning. But, yes, McAllister another DL casualty returning so there is not too much chance of taking either side, and maybe the roof will be open.

Dodgers-Jays: I will back the Jays against most LHP's at home, but Capuano is pretty tough on left handed hitters, so this one might need more thought, as he's also been actually better away from Chavez Ravine. Redmond can be had, and may not pitch deep, so at this point I am inclined to take the Dodgers.

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

MLB ATLANTA at NY METS

Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ATLANTA) off a one run win over a division rival, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts
34-16 since 1997. ( 68.0% 23.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY

BALTIMORE is 20-10 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.4) , OPPONENT (3.4)