Get That Paper- MLB Picks for Tuesday

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Finished with a split yesterday due to Garza getting scratched, but come out with a small profit thanks to the twins being big underdogs.

I got 5 picks for Tuesday (5dimes)

Marlins (+147): 1.00/1.47

Jose Fernandez is a 20 year old kid who's dominating in the big leagues and gets no appreciation for it. He is one of the hardest throwers in the league with an average fastball of nearly 95MPH, with a nasty curve and a developing slider and change up. If theres any kind of pitching that plays in Coors, it's guys with power fastballs. The thin air in colorado minimizes drop on breaking pitchers/sinkers, so having a hard fastball to keep hitters honest with is very helpful. While the Marlins arent an offense you normally want to be backing, you know their hitters are itching to get a chance to boost their numbers in a hitters haven like Coors Field, much the opposite of their home ballpark.

Jhoulys Chacin takes the bump with a nice ERA of 3.50 and FIP of 3.17. His improvement this year is fueled by lowering his walks and inducing more grounders, but theres been a bit of luck involved as well. His HR/FB rate is at a mere 2.9%, a very unsustainable number. This is reflected in Chacin's 4.09 xFIP. Taking all this in, it seems Chacin has slightly improved his skills as a starter, but some regression is due to come his way. So I'll take the better starter who Colorado has never seen before at nearly +150

Red Sox -1.5 (+140): 1.00/1.40

This is mostly a fade of Roberto (Fausto) Hernandez. He is a line drive and HR yielding machine so far this season; and with Boston's murderers row of a lineup, things could get ugly at fenway. Throw in that Hernandez has a huge platoon split for his career and especially this season (.377 wOBA vs L/.286 wOBA vs R) and things look even more dangerous considering the lefties in the Boston Lineup (Ellsbury,Victorino,Papi, Nava). Not to mention they should come out pissed after getting shutout with 2 hits vs Matt Moore last night. While Lester doesn't appear to be the same guy he was 2-3 years ago, he remains a solid starter that should be able to keep the sox in the ballgame.

Dodgers (-106): 1.06/1.00

I'm hopping on the Dodger bandwagon for a game. They're playing great baseball right now and have formed a pretty intimidating lineup despite the absence of Matt Kemp. Capuano has had a couple of blow up starts since rejoining the rotation in June, but has had a 24/2 K/BB in 5 starts and is doing a good job of getting ground balls.

The real reason to buy here is Jays starter Todd Redmond. He's just recently been moved to the rotation and his skills are anything but encouraging. With a GB% south of 30% pitching in a great homerun ballpark in Toronto, its danger time. The right hander is 28, a old long time minor leager who averages 90MPH on his fastball with only one real offspeed offering in his slider. I like my chances of the dodgers bats staying hot against a very suspect starter at nearly even odds.

Phillies (+195): .50/.975

Shelby Miller is one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the game, but seems overvalued in this spot. He's been very shaky in his last 4 outings, giving up a lot of hits and an ugly 16/10 K/BB. He is a pitcher that relies heavily on his fastball (74% of his pitches) and Ive thought all year long that eventually this would catch up to him, especially given his lack of a changeup. I'll take a Phillies lineup chalk full of lefties and a pitcher who's confidence is on the rise in Pettibone at nearly 2 to 1.

Angels/Twins O 8.5 (-120): 1.20/1.00

Two bad starters where I could see either team covering this number single handedly. Twinkies rookie Kyle Gibson does not look ready for the show with a 4.43 K/9 and 3.63 BB/9. He has an ERA over 6 and he still hasnt given up his first homerun. Traveling on the road against a underperforming but still imposing lineup is not what the doctor ordered.

Luckily for Gibson, he gets to face off against a starter nearly as inept as himself. Tommy Hanson is a shell of his former self in atlanta, he has lost 4 MPH on his fastball all the way down to 88.5 on average. He also throws his fastball less than half of his pitches, showing he has lost nearly all confidence in it. Hanson's K rate is currently sitting at a lowly 6.23, down from his career average of 8.24. He is now a flyball pitcher who cannot get swings and misses.

I'm guessing this one will get up to 9, but i'd still take it there and even at 9.5
 

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