YTD Record: 5-2 (+4.81 Units). Standard bet size is 1 unit, all lines from 5dimes
Had a nice day yesterday going 4-1 gaining 4.37 units. Got a very lucky cover with the Twins/LAA over last night, important to remember the good breaks when the rough patches come along.
I have 5 picks for Wednesday's hardball...
Cubbies (+130): 1.50/1.95
Two starters trending in opposite direction for their careers. For the Cubs, Fireballer Jeff Samardzija has quickly become one of the games best pitchers with his xFIP of (3.36) ranking in the top 20 in all of baseball, ahead of "sexier" starters like Stasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Bumgarner. This is not a fluke either, the shark posted a (3.38) xFIP last year as well.
For the D Backs, Ian Kennedy has shown an extreme decline in his skill set this year and even more so recently. Kennedy has lost the pinpoint control that was his calling card the past 2 seasons; his BB/9 is (3.39), way up from his average of (2.30) the last 2 years. In addition, his K rate has dropped to a career low and his line drive rate is at an alarming 24% resulting in a frightening (4.45) xFIP. Kennedy at his best was a guy who limited baserunners and hoped to keep his HR's allowed of the solo variety. Nowadays baserunners are much more abundant, and with Kennedy's inability to induce groundballs in a good hitters ballpark, he may find his tenure with the Diamondbacks coming to an end rather soon.
With a pitching mismatch this big and comparable offenses facing off, I'm willing to up my usual bet to 1.5 Units with a +130 price
Rays (-113): 1.13/1.00
Although Felix Doubront looks to be an improved pitcher this season, his peripherals line up almost exactly with where he was last season (3.92 and 3.81 xFIP). He is a serviceable back of the rotation lefty, but his matchup with the rays is not one I like. This season, Tampa is the best hitting team in the league vs LHP (.343 wOBA). Also, Doubront's biggest fallback is his control (nearly 4 BB/9) and Tampa is one of the most patient teams in baseball.
David Price takes the hill for Tampa, and seems to be shaping into form. In his 4 starts since rejoining the rotation he has a 23/1 K/BB ratio, and it was nice to see his avergae fastball velocity get up to almost 95MPH for his last start against toronto. Boston has had a tougher go of it against lefties this year too, their wOBA is nearly 40 points lower than vs RHP.
Pirates (+133): 1.00/1.33
Two teams trending in different directions. The Pirates are winners of 3 straight and riding the high of playoff pursuit. The Nats have dropped 5 straight and at 48-52 on the season, are probably realizing their playoffs hopes are dying out.
While Strasburg is the big name on the bump, Liriano has been the better pitcher this year on the surface and peripherally. The Nats have yet to see this new version of Francisco Lirano; and with their bats struggling to do any damage vs Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton, I don't see them having much luck with Liriano either.
White Sox (+122): 1.00/1.22
Anibal Sanchez' season numbers are fantastic (10.47 K/9, 2.89 xFIP), but he has not been that same kind of pitcher since returning from the DL. In his 3 starts, he has a 13/9 K/BB ratio and got hit around by the white sox on July 11th for 4ER in 5.1 IP. The Tigers will be without Miguel Cabrera in the lineup; and outside of his monstrous production, the tigers lineup has failed to produce.
John Danks throws for the Pale Hose, who has been pitching some solid baseball for the past month or so. In his last 5 starts, he has a K/BB of 24/4. An interesting note on Danks is that even as a southpaw, lefties have a better career wOBA against him. The Tigers only have one LHB to fear, and that's Prince Fielder who isn't quite the same guy this season. I think Danks'll be "fired up" to get the chi sox their first W in the series. puff_>>
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</tbody>Angels -1.5 (-117): 1.17/1.00
Mike Pelfrey sucks, even worse than his time with the mets. He still strikes nobody out, but now he has lost his grounball profile. The twins have won the first two games of this series on the road, including a game blown in extra innings by the angels last night. The angels will have vengeance on their minds tomorrow.
Jered Weaver takes the bump for the Angels, and has been pitching great since his return from the DL. He has a 52/14 K/BB since returning and is holding opposing hitters to a .695 OPS. I think he shuts the Twins down and the Angels offense puts up a few crooked numbers against the lowly Pelfrey.
Had a nice day yesterday going 4-1 gaining 4.37 units. Got a very lucky cover with the Twins/LAA over last night, important to remember the good breaks when the rough patches come along.
I have 5 picks for Wednesday's hardball...
Cubbies (+130): 1.50/1.95
Two starters trending in opposite direction for their careers. For the Cubs, Fireballer Jeff Samardzija has quickly become one of the games best pitchers with his xFIP of (3.36) ranking in the top 20 in all of baseball, ahead of "sexier" starters like Stasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Bumgarner. This is not a fluke either, the shark posted a (3.38) xFIP last year as well.
For the D Backs, Ian Kennedy has shown an extreme decline in his skill set this year and even more so recently. Kennedy has lost the pinpoint control that was his calling card the past 2 seasons; his BB/9 is (3.39), way up from his average of (2.30) the last 2 years. In addition, his K rate has dropped to a career low and his line drive rate is at an alarming 24% resulting in a frightening (4.45) xFIP. Kennedy at his best was a guy who limited baserunners and hoped to keep his HR's allowed of the solo variety. Nowadays baserunners are much more abundant, and with Kennedy's inability to induce groundballs in a good hitters ballpark, he may find his tenure with the Diamondbacks coming to an end rather soon.
With a pitching mismatch this big and comparable offenses facing off, I'm willing to up my usual bet to 1.5 Units with a +130 price
Rays (-113): 1.13/1.00
Although Felix Doubront looks to be an improved pitcher this season, his peripherals line up almost exactly with where he was last season (3.92 and 3.81 xFIP). He is a serviceable back of the rotation lefty, but his matchup with the rays is not one I like. This season, Tampa is the best hitting team in the league vs LHP (.343 wOBA). Also, Doubront's biggest fallback is his control (nearly 4 BB/9) and Tampa is one of the most patient teams in baseball.
David Price takes the hill for Tampa, and seems to be shaping into form. In his 4 starts since rejoining the rotation he has a 23/1 K/BB ratio, and it was nice to see his avergae fastball velocity get up to almost 95MPH for his last start against toronto. Boston has had a tougher go of it against lefties this year too, their wOBA is nearly 40 points lower than vs RHP.
Pirates (+133): 1.00/1.33
Two teams trending in different directions. The Pirates are winners of 3 straight and riding the high of playoff pursuit. The Nats have dropped 5 straight and at 48-52 on the season, are probably realizing their playoffs hopes are dying out.
While Strasburg is the big name on the bump, Liriano has been the better pitcher this year on the surface and peripherally. The Nats have yet to see this new version of Francisco Lirano; and with their bats struggling to do any damage vs Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton, I don't see them having much luck with Liriano either.
White Sox (+122): 1.00/1.22
Anibal Sanchez' season numbers are fantastic (10.47 K/9, 2.89 xFIP), but he has not been that same kind of pitcher since returning from the DL. In his 3 starts, he has a 13/9 K/BB ratio and got hit around by the white sox on July 11th for 4ER in 5.1 IP. The Tigers will be without Miguel Cabrera in the lineup; and outside of his monstrous production, the tigers lineup has failed to produce.
John Danks throws for the Pale Hose, who has been pitching some solid baseball for the past month or so. In his last 5 starts, he has a K/BB of 24/4. An interesting note on Danks is that even as a southpaw, lefties have a better career wOBA against him. The Tigers only have one LHB to fear, and that's Prince Fielder who isn't quite the same guy this season. I think Danks'll be "fired up" to get the chi sox their first W in the series. puff_>>
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Mike Pelfrey sucks, even worse than his time with the mets. He still strikes nobody out, but now he has lost his grounball profile. The twins have won the first two games of this series on the road, including a game blown in extra innings by the angels last night. The angels will have vengeance on their minds tomorrow.
Jered Weaver takes the bump for the Angels, and has been pitching great since his return from the DL. He has a 52/14 K/BB since returning and is holding opposing hitters to a .695 OPS. I think he shuts the Twins down and the Angels offense puts up a few crooked numbers against the lowly Pelfrey.
