Get That Paper- MLB Thursday (8-4 +9.2 Units)

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YTD Picks Record: 8-4 (+6.92 Units). Parlays: 1-0 (+2.28) Standard bet size is 1 unit, all lines from 5dimes

Another Nice night on Wednesday, going 3-2 hitting my 1.5U play on the Cubs who came through in extra's. Also hit my parlay, but the two -1 pushes made it a smaller payday.

I have 3 for Thursdays Action

Braves (-112): 1.12/1.00


The Bravos call up big lefty Alex Wood to fill in for the injured Paul Maholm on Thursday. Wood is a hard thrower from the left side with a good changeup and curve, with impressive numbers starting in the minors and incredible numbers pitching in relief this year for the big league club. A second round draft pick by the Braves, Wood looks to be another one of the good young pitchers the braves seem to grow on trees. While some question his ability to stick as a starter due to his delivery, we aren't worried about long term projectability. I think this kid has the stuff and control to be a very effective starter, and he'll be itching to prove it against a bottom tier offense in the Mets.

Zack Wheeler is a much more highly touted rookie, and for good reason given his frame and easy velocity with movement on his fastball. However, Wheeler has had a very tough time keeping big league hitters honest due to his lack of command with his off speed pitches. Batters have been sitting dead red (72% fastballs) and it is resulting in ugly K and BB numbers that are unlike his minor league skill set (7.16 K/9, 4.96 BB/9). The Braves have a lot of very good fastball hitters in their lineup (Heyward, J Upton, Uggla, Gattis) and I think Wheeler gets that ERA spiked up to the range his skill set indicates it should be.

Rangers (-147): 1.47/1.00


Hate Laying this much juice, but I really like this spot for the Rangers. Derek Holland has taken a step up this year, striking out more batters which has put him in the top 25 SP for xFIP (3.48). The reason I'm willing to lay this much juice is the Yankeee's inability to hit left handed pitching. They rank 3rd to last in the MLB in wOBA at .286, behind the Mariners and Marlins.

Hiroki Kuroda's ERA may be a pristine 2.65, but his xFIP is 3.73, the highest it's been in 5 years. Kuroda's K rate has dropped for the 4rd year in a row, down to 6.30. Hiroki's Success this season has hinged on unsustainable luck with a .251 BABIP and a 82% LOB%. Looking beyond the surface, it looks as though father time may be catching up with the 38 year old right hander. Seems to me the oddsmakers are thinking the same thing in throwing this pricey line out there that looks to be begging for action on the Yanks.

Pirates/Nats Under 7.5 (-125): 1.25/1.00

Two very good pitchers in Gio and Burnett against two offenses that rank in the bottom third of MLB in wOBA. Playing in a good pitchers park with the wind blowing straight in at 10MPH, I'll pay the -125 price to keep the half run above 7.



Good Luck!
 

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