LORCET'S LOUISIANA "Shock and Awe" 2013 MLB Daily thread 7/30/13...!!!

LORCET10 said:

WHATS UP COUGAR GLAD TO SEE YOU...EVERYBODY AT "SHOUCK AND AWE'.. BSCOUGARIS FROM "NUTTIN BUT WINNERS" IS OUR BYU (MOUNTAIN WEST AND PAC -12 EXPERT, WEST COAST EXPERT) WELCUM ABOARD COUGAR....REAL GOOD CAPPER Y'ALL FROM CAPPERS MALL!!! ONE OF DA GOOD GUYS!!!! GLAD TO SEE YOU..WHATS BEEN GOING ON?????


Things have been really good, just very hectic. I got married a little over a month ago so with that and the honeymoon and getting settled into "our" house, I didnt cap MLB this year. In the past few years I also followed the system where if two winning teams are playing and the total is 10 or more then you bet the under. I didnt follow it this year but I imagine the way pitching has dominated that not very many games even qualified. That system is something to consider though going foward, and in fact I will try to track it on these threads going forward. Does anyone have the resources to see how this has done so far this year?

I plan on getting heavy into CFB capping over the next few weeks and will provide feedback here as I accumulate it. Very excited for the upcoming season. As a fan I am stoked for the schedule BYU has and have already planned trips to see them play at Virgina, Wisconsin, and ND. Their goal is to run the fastest offense in the nation, with the goal of running a play every 8-10 seconds - Robert Anae is back from Arizona and has regained his title of OC after the departure of Brandon Doman and this is his offensive vision. Depending on how successful this translates in spring training, Virgina could be in for a rude awakening come August 31st. The Cougars have some great playmakers so right now everything hinges on the offensive line at this point.

I also still have a bookie that allows me to play the correlated parlay system. For those that use online books you wouldn't be able to play these and in fact most locals probably dont let you either. If you can find one that does then hammer it as long as you can. I will note that it actually lost money last year. With the odds in your favor over the long run (which is why most books dont let you do it) it should be a go whenever possible. The losing season last year was just a short term loss and just shows that the house cant always win. The parameters are pretty basic: When the spread is 40% or more of the total then you parlay the favorite with the over and you parlay the underdog with the under. Some argue that you should only play the favorite/over side as they believe that this hits more often but this isnt true. In fact, last year most of the wins were the underdog/under combination. Here is an example: Say BYU is playing Bo Diddley Tech and the line is -35 with an over of 50. 35/50 = 70%, thus this game qualifies. The two bets to make on this game are: parlay BYU -35/BYU over 50 and parlay Bo Diddley Tech +35/under 50. Typical payoff is 2.6 to 1. My local offers 2.5 to 1 so I will use that as the payoff. Typically I play both sides at 100 to win 250. So if both plays lose, I lose 200. If one plays wins (the goal since you cant win them both) I win 150. From the looks of it it seems like a sucker bet because you have to hit well over 50% of the games. If 7 games qualify, then your break even is 4 wins ($600: $150x4) and 3 losses ($600: $200x3), or just over 57%. I am not sure who came up with 40% as the qualifying parameters but mathematically it makes sense correlation wise. Its the same theory as someone offering you two bets at 10% juice each: Offer #1: Will it be cloudy today. Offer #2: Will it rain today. As individual bets they are just as likely to happen, a 50/50 scenario. However, in reality, if it is cloudy outside, it is more likley to rain and if its isnt couldy outside then the chances of rain are not good. Thus if you are able to parlay both sides and get a better payoff then the odds are in your favor over the long run. As I mentioned, most players wont be able to tap into this system, but I wanted to at least lay it out there for those that possibly can. Typically more games qualify earlier in the year as the "big boys" play weaker out of conference opponents but thoughout the season there are always games every week that qualify. I have seen as many as 12 qualify in one week.

Another play that has worked in the past is on Boise games. They typically are big favorites in alot of their games and if you follow, you know that Chris Petersen doesnt run up the score in the 2nd half and alot of times they give up back door covers or just dont score enough themselves in the 2nd half to cover a large full game spread. They usually come out firing in the 1st half and are notorious for jumping on teams and putting the game out of reach early. They werent as strong last year but going back to sometime in the 2011 season, they had a run of covering about (I cant remember the exact #) 20 first half lines IN A ROW. Again if someone can find the historical data of Boise first haf lines over the past several years and the results, we will definately see a profitable pattern.

Just some things I wanted to throw out there FWIW.

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Andre1971 said:

bsu, good to see you buddy!!! Long three days at work boys, reason for no plays, off the next two so hope to have some winners. LET'S GO!!!!

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LORCET10 said:

WHATS UP COUGAR GLAD TO SEE YOU...EVERYBODY AT "SHOUCK AND AWE'.. BSCOUGARIS FROM "NUTTIN BUT WINNERS" IS OUR BYU (MOUNTAIN WEST AND PAC -12 EXPERT, WEST COAST EXPERT) WELCUM ABOARD COUGAR....REAL GOOD CAPPER Y'ALL FROM CAPPERS MALL!!! ONE OF DA GOOD GUYS!!!! GLAD TO SEE YOU..WHATS BEEN GOING ON?????


Things have been really good, just very hectic. I got married a little over a month ago so with that and the honeymoon and getting settled into "our" house, I didnt cap MLB this year. In the past few years I also followed the system where if two winning teams are playing and the total is 10 or more then you bet the under. I didnt follow it this year but I imagine the way pitching has dominated that not very many games even qualified. That system is something to consider though going foward, and in fact I will try to track it on these threads going forward. Does anyone have the resources to see how this has done so far this year?

I plan on getting heavy into CFB capping over the next few weeks and will provide feedback here as I accumulate it. Very excited for the upcoming season. As a fan I am stoked for the schedule BYU has and have already planned trips to see them play at Virgina, Wisconsin, and ND. Their goal is to run the fastest offense in the nation, with the goal of running a play every 8-10 seconds - Robert Anae is back from Arizona and has regained his title of OC after the departure of Brandon Doman and this is his offensive vision. Depending on how successful this translates in spring training, Virgina could be in for a rude awakening come August 31st. The Cougars have some great playmakers so right now everything hinges on the offensive line at this point.

I also still have a bookie that allows me to play the correlated parlay system. For those that use online books you wouldn't be able to play these and in fact most locals probably dont let you either. If you can find one that does then hammer it as long as you can. I will note that it actually lost money last year. With the odds in your favor over the long run (which is why most books dont let you do it) it should be a go whenever possible. The losing season last year was just a short term loss and just shows that the house cant always win. The parameters are pretty basic: When the spread is 40% or more of the total then you parlay the favorite with the over and you parlay the underdog with the under. Some argue that you should only play the favorite/over side as they believe that this hits more often but this isnt true. In fact, last year most of the wins were the underdog/under combination. Here is an example: Say BYU is playing Bo Diddley Tech and the line is -35 with an over of 50. 35/50 = 70%, thus this game qualifies. The two bets to make on this game are: parlay BYU -35/BYU over 50 and parlay Bo Diddley Tech +35/under 50. Typical payoff is 2.6 to 1. My local offers 2.5 to 1 so I will use that as the payoff. Typically I play both sides at 100 to win 250. So if both plays lose, I lose 200. If one plays wins (the goal since you cant win them both) I win 150. From the looks of it it seems like a sucker bet because you have to hit well over 50% of the games. If 7 games qualify, then your break even is 4 wins ($600: $150x4) and 3 losses ($600: $200x3), or just over 57%. I am not sure who came up with 40% as the qualifying parameters but mathematically it makes sense correlation wise. Its the same theory as someone offering you two bets at 10% juice each: Offer #1: Will it be cloudy today. Offer #2: Will it rain today. As individual bets they are just as likely to happen, a 50/50 scenario. However, in reality, if it is cloudy outside, it is more likley to rain and if its isnt couldy outside then the chances of rain are not good. Thus if you are able to parlay both sides and get a better payoff then the odds are in your favor over the long run. As I mentioned, most players wont be able to tap into this system, but I wanted to at least lay it out there for those that possibly can. Typically more games qualify earlier in the year as the "big boys" play weaker out of conference opponents but thoughout the season there are always games every week that qualify. I have seen as many as 12 qualify in one week.

Another play that has worked in the past is on Boise games. They typically are big favorites in alot of their games and if you follow, you know that Chris Petersen doesnt run up the score in the 2nd half and alot of times they give up back door covers or just dont score enough themselves in the 2nd half to cover a large full game spread. They usually come out firing in the 1st half and are notorious for jumping on teams and putting the game out of reach early. They werent as strong last year but going back to sometime in the 2011 season, they had a run of covering about (I cant remember the exact #) 20 first half lines IN A ROW. Again if someone can find the historical data of Boise first haf lines over the past several years and the results, we will definately see a profitable pattern.

Just some things I wanted to throw out there FWIW.

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Andre1971 said:

Under is 5-0-1 in last six Kansas City games.
Santana is 1-0, 1.76 in his last couple starts. Pelfrey has a 2.28 RA in his last four outings.

Lookin' at this one

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marcopolo84 said:

anyone else like the cubs this morning?

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