Service Plays Saturday 8/3/13

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GL!

UFC 163 betting: Aldo vs. Korean Zombie statistical breakdown
By MMAODDSBREAKER

After a trio of losses for Brazilian champions (first Machida/Shogun, then Dos Santos, then Silva), Jose Aldo is now arguably the best fighter in Brazil. And this weekend the UFC is anchoring a somewhat thin card on his upcoming title defense at UFC 163 in Rio de Janeiro.

Enter the unexpected challenger, Chan Sung Jung, who will become the first Korean ever to challenge for a UFC title. Nicknamed the “Korean Zombie” due to his fearless forward-pressing fighting style, he made a controversial choice for featherweight title contention but has certainly not disappointed fans during his UFC career.

Despite Jung’s two-fight upset streak and an incredible four Fight Night bonuses in just three UFC appearances, he comes in as a massive underdog to the champ. The line favors the champ Aldo at -750, with the underdog Jung +525 on the comeback.

Tale of tape:

With some conflicting reports, Jung will come in either similarly sized or up to two inches taller than Aldo and will most definitely have a reach advantage. On the downside for Jung, he’s been out of action for well over a year, putting him into the danger range for ring rust, which drops win rates down to the near 40 percent level.

He’s also fighting a Brazilian in Brazil, which lately has not gone well for foreign-born challengers. But perhaps the Zombie-like mentality of Jung has kept him motivated in the gym and will prevent him from being rattled by the Brazilian fans.

Standup:

Anyone expecting to see a statistical beat down by one of the pound-for-pound best may be disappointed here. The striking stats for Aldo and Jung are fairly even. Jung has advantages in power head-striking accuracy and overall significant-striking pace. If he can use his reach and cardio effectively, these are considerable assets.

But Aldo has advantages of his own, specifically in knockdown power and striking defense. Head-striking defense for Jung is not only worse than Aldo’s, it’s actually worse than average. Remembering the back-and-forth war he had with Leonard Garcia, Jung needs to tighten up his defense if he hopes to stand and trade with Aldo for long.

Ground:

Neither fighter attempts frequent takedowns but Jung has the better success rate. What’s more important is that both fighters have very good takedown defense, meaning it’s not likely that they will end up on the ground until perhaps some fatigue sets in (for Aldo).

Once on the ground, Aldo brings the credentials of a BJJ black belt into the cage, even though we have rarely seen much use of this aspect of his game. Jung, while without the same pedigree of grappling, has won some spectacular Submission of the Night bonuses in his short UFC career.

While on paper, a Brazilian champion with a BJJ black belt defending on his home turf may seem like invisible force, analysis shows that it’s not the toss-up the betting line suggests. Either fighter being submitted is unlikely.

Fight prediction:

This fight should stay standing thanks to solid takedown defense for both fighters. While Jung surprised me with good performance statistics, the context of his opponents must be accounted for. His striking stats may be inflated by his battles with Garcia (who statistically has terrible striking defense), while Jung’s cardio helped him through his most recent opponent, Dustin Poirier.

Aldo remains the more dangerous fighter out of the gate with skill advantages in basically every category. He can mix up his strikes, work the legs, and has the kind of explosive power that makes for a perfect foil to any straight-ahead fighter.

Jung’s only chance to win this will be to use his range and size to score points, then grind Aldo down along the fence. Late in the fight, he might get more openings if Aldo is unable to maintain his stamina. But these are all big “ifs.”

More than likely, at some point in the first couple rounds, Jung will walk into some strikes that will rock him and set up a finish by the champ.

CFL Rankings: Week 6
Sean Murphy | Aug 2, 2013 |

Last week's ranking in parentheses.

1. Saskatchewan Roughriders (1) The Riders aren't going to run the table this season but that doesn't change the fact that they've looked awfully good through five weeks, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 96 points in racking up five straight wins. They'll enjoy a week off before facing their toughest test of the season to date, a matchup with the Stampeders in Calgary.

2. Calgary Stampeders (3) With Drew Tate and Kevin Glenn both injured, Bo Levi Mitchell stepped in under centre last week, and the offense didn't miss a beat. Now Tate and Glenn get a week off to recuperate and the Stamps defense gets a chance to get even more in sync before next week's showdown with the undefeated Riders at McMahon Stadium.

3. Toronto Argonauts (4) The Argos picked up a statement win over the Lions on Tuesday night, doing so without their starting quarterback (Ricky Ray) and running back (Chad Kackert), not to mention a key cog at wide receiver (Dontrelle Inman). Zach Collaros isn't about to overtake Ray's starting job, but if Tuesday's performance was any indication, the former college standout has a bright future in the CFL.

4. B.C. Lions (2) Something isn't quite right with the Lions offense. They've topped out at 32 points this season, and that came in a losing effort against Calgary back in Week 1. I do expect the B.C. defense to respond with a big effort this week after getting ripped by the Argos on Tuesday. They still rank number one in the league in total yards allowed and second in points allowed.

5. Montreal Alouettes (7) I'm willing to give the Als a major boost in the rankings this week following the firing of Dan Hawkins on Thursday. His hiring was simply perplexing to me, and to be honest, I'm surprised he lasted as long as he did. Expect an immediate turnaround from the Als, as the personnel is still in place for this team to compete for the East Division title.

6. Edmonton Eskimos (6) This may be a rebuilding year, but I still feel the Eskimos have the potential to be a solid bet moving forward, provided they can stay healthy. They'll get a chance to pick up their second win of the season against the Ti-Cats on Friday night and after a strong second half in Montreal last week, have some momentum on their side. The Esks are 0-2 at home this season and should be desperate to give the Commenwealth Stadium faithful something to cheer about.

7. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5) Credit the Blue Bombers for doing the right thing and officially handing the reins of the offense over to QB Justin Goltz. Buck Pierce is on the downside of his career due to injuries and otherwise, and it's become clear that he's not the man to lead this team back to glory. With that being said, Goltz faces a tough task against an angry Lions squad in B.C. this week.

8. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (8) I had the Ti-Cats lower than most in last week's rankings, but I don't think I was far off. If this team were healthy, it would be competitive, but that simply isn't the case. Revenge will be on the Ti-Cats minds on Friday night in Edmonton, but whether they can put together four solid quarters of football and steal a win on the road remains to be seen.

UFC 163 betting: Aldo's striking too much for Jung
By MMAODDSBREAKER

UFC 163: Jose Aldo (-800) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+550)

Jose Aldo (22-1) is the long-time UFC featherweight champion, having defended the belt he first won at WEC 44 a total of six times. Four of those were in the UFC (over Frankie Edgar, Chad Mendes, Kenny Florian and Mark Hominick) and twice in the WEC (over Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan).

The 26-year-old is an incredible striker. He is easily the best striker at 145 pounds and maybe the best in the world. Aldo is able to use a dazzling combination of strikes from all eight limbs to put his opponents to sleep and he has 13 career knockouts to show for it. Just for good measure, to compliment that striking, Aldo also boasts impeccable takedown defense.

Currently riding a 15-fight win streak, Aldo hasn’t really been challenged by any of his competitors outside of Hominick in the fifth round of their UFC 129 bout, and considering he seems to be improving from bout to bout, he’s a scary, scary man.

Fighting in front of his hometown fans this weekend, Aldo wants a knockout of Jung. And he’s likely to get it.

Jung (13-3) is currently riding a three-fight win streak in the UFC, with a “Fight of the Year” and “Submission of the Year” win over Dustin Poirier at UFC on FUEL TV 3, a “Knockout of the Night” win over Hominick at UFC 129, and another “Submission of the Year” over Leonard Garcia at UFC Fight Night 24.

The 26-year-old is rapidly improving. With knockout power in his hands, fantastic submissions, and the ability to walk forward and be aggressive, he’s been a tough out for other featherweights in the UFC.

Before he came to the UFC, however, he lost a war with Garcia and was knocked out by George Roop, so it’s possible he’s been overachieving in the Octagon. As well, Jung took this fight with Aldo on short notice after Anthony Pettis pulled out of the fight with an injury.

Having not fought since May of 2012, he’ll likely exhibit signs of ring rust and against Aldo, you can’t make a single mistake. So unless he fights a flawless fight, Jung is in trouble.

Outside of a fluke punch, I just don’t see how The Korean Zombie wins this fight. Aldo is one of the most devastating strikers in all of mixed martial arts and going up against a guy like Jung, who typically offers up little to no defense in his fights, this one has all the makings of a highlight-reel knockout.

Aldo is going to win this fight, and he’s going to win it by knockout to once again defend the UFC featherweight championship and re-affirm his place as one of the pound-for-pound greats in the sport.

Saturday's American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday's American League games:

Texas Rangers at Oakland A's (-125, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Matt Garza has put together a pair of strong starts since being acquired by the Texas Rangers. The righty is 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his two starts. Texas has won both games.

Cold batting stat: A's OF Coco Crisp is 2-for-17 (.118) lifetime versus Garza.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-1 in A's SP Jarrod Parker's last seven Saturday starts.


Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (-185, 9)

Cold pitching stat: O's starter Scott Feldman is 2-2 with a 5.12 ERA in five starts since being acquired by Baltimore from the Chicago Cubs.

Cold batting stat: Mariners DH Kendrys Morales is 2-for-13 (.154) in his career versus Feldman.

Weather: There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and wind will blow from left field to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Mariners are 0-7 in the last seven meetings in Baltimore.


Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (-230, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Detroit's Max Scherzer was dominant yet again his last time out. He held the Phillies to one hit in six innings of work en route to a 10-0 victory on July 27.

Hot batting stat: Tigers OF Austin Jackson is 12-for-29 (.414) with three homers and six RBIs in his career versus Sox starter John Danks.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph. There is currently a 10 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Key betting note: The over is 9-1-3 in Danks' last 13 starts versus the American League Central.


Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (-138, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Astros starter Erik Bedard has taken the loss in his last five starts.

Hot batting stat: Twins 1B Justin Morneau is 11-for-29 (.379) in his career versus Bedard. Morneau has belted a pair of doubles, two homers and 11 RBIs versus the lefty.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 9-1-1 in Bedard's last 11 starts overall.


Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels (-172, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Angels starter Jered Weaver went 4-1 with a 1.32 ERA in six July starts.

Cold batting stat: Jays slugger Jose Bautista is 0-for-6 with four K's in his career against Weaver.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 5-0 in Jays SP Esmil Rogers' last five starts overall.


Interleague

Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox (-150, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Over his last four starts, DBacks starter Patrick Corbin is 3-1 with a 1.26 ERA.

Cold batting stat: DBacks OF Jason Kubel is 1-for-8 lifetime versus Sox starter Jake Peavy.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 9-1 in the Diamondbacks' last 10 interleague road games.


San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays (-205, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Rays ace David Price had a torrid July since coming off the DL. The southpaw went 5-1 with a 1.68 ERA in his six July starts.

Cold batting stat: Giants 2B Marco Scutaro is 3-for-25 (.125) lifetime versus Price.

Weather: Dome

Key betting note: The Giants are 1-8 in starter Tim Lincecum's last nine starts.


* Odds courtesy of BetOnline.com.

** Odds, probable starting pitchers, stats and weather forecast as of 10:27 p.m ET Friday.

Saturday's National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday's National League games:

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (+100, OFF)

Hot pitching stat: In two of Dodgers' SP Chris Capuano's last three starts, he has not given up an earned run. The Dodgers are 3-0 in those three outings.

Hot batting stat: Dodgers SS Hanley Ramirez is 8-for-15 (.533) in his career versus Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 10 mph. There is a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast for gametime.

Key betting stat: The over is 8-2-1 in Capuano's last 11 starts as a favorite.


Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (OFF, OFF)

Cold pitching stat: Braves starter Brandon Beachy was shelled in his last outing. He gave up seven earned runs on eight hits, including two home runs, in just 3 2/3 innings of work.

Cold batting stat: Phillies 2B Chase Utley is 2-for-11 in his career versus Beachy.

Weather: There is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the high-70s and wind will blow out to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 7-3 when the wind blows out to right field at Philly's Citizens Bank Park.


Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates (-181, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Pirates starter Francisco Liriano is 2-0 with a 0.61 ERA in his last two starts.

Hot batting stat: Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki is a lifetime .392 hitter (21 games) at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. He went 2-for-3 with a dinger in Friday's 4-2 victory.

Weather: There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-70s and wind will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Rockies are 2-9 in SP Jorge De La Rosa's last 11 road starts versus a team with a winning record.


St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds (-146, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Cards starter Jake Westbrook tossed a complete game, five-hit shutout against the Reds in his only start against the Central Division rival this season. The Cards won the game by a score 10-0 on April 10.

Hot batting stat: Reds OF Chris Heisey is 6-for-16 (.375) and has three solo home runs in his career against Westbrook.

Weather: There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the high-70s and wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 7-1 in Westbrook's last eight road starts.


Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers (+105, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Is Dan Haren turning his bleak season around? The Nats starter went seven excellent innings scattering three hits and one earned run en route to a 4-1 victory over the New York Mets in his last start.

Hot batting stat: Nats SS Ian Desmond is 3-for-3 in his career versus Brewers starter Donovan Hand.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The Nationals are 0-7 in Haren's last seven road starts.


Interleague

Kansas City Royals at New York Mets (+110, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Mets starter Carlos Torres was awful in his last start. The righty gave up eight earned runs on nine hits in three innings in a 14-1 loss against the Nats.

Hot batting stat: Only two Mets have faced Royals starter Bruce Chen; John Buck and Marlon Byrd. They are a combined 5-for-8 with a double and three RBIs versus the Royals lefty.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: The Royals are 7-0 in Chen's last seven starts as a favorite.


Cleveland Indians at Miami Marlins (+105, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: The Marlins are 1-4 in Jacob Turner's previous five starts.

Hot batting stat: Marlins 1B Logan Morrison went 4-for-5 with a double, triple and four RBIs in Friday's 10-0 drubbing of the Tribe.

Weather: Due to a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, the roof could be close at Marlins Park in Miami.

Key betting note: The Indians are 3-9 in SP Zach McAllister's last 12 road starts.


New York Yankees at San Diego Padres (-103, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Yanks starter Ivan Nova went 2-2 with a 2.03 ERA in four July starts.

Cold batting stat: The Bronx Bombers own the worst slugging percentage in the American League. Prior to Friday's game, the Yanks' slugging percentage was .368.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with mostly clear skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 4-0 in Nova's last four interleague starts.


* Odds courtesy of BetOnline.com.

** Odds, probable starting pitchers, stats and weather forecast as of 10:38 p.m ET Friday.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Pirates on Friday and likes the Pirates on Saturday.

The deficit is 1408 sirignanos.

Cappers Access

Royals -125
Padres +110

AccuScore since 7-12-13 is (13-5) +776.00.That is sides only when 2 or more match.2-1 no play. Also,must be (-140 or less).Miami & San Diego last nite.This is from plays I've seen posted. If I missed any please feel free to correct. Thank You and Good Luck.

[h=2]Joe Wiz 8/3[/h]

Bonus Play Saturday Detroit/Chicago Over 7​

9x Sports 8/3

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]NY Yankees at San Diego[/h] The Yankees look to bounce back from last night's loss and build on their 4-0 record in Ivan Nova's last 4 interleague starts. NY is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]Atlanta at Phoenix[/h] The Mercury look to take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games. Phoenix is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

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Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Saturday

Angels -1.5 +115

Seattle/Baltimore over 9