Service Plays Sunday 8/4/13

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GL!

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Miami vs. Dallas (Sunday 8/04 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Miami -1 (-125) at 5Dimes

Canton Ohio will once again be the site of the curtain lifting for the 2013 NFL preseason. The Cowboys seem to show a perennial optimism toward a great season with a playoffs run. But for the Cowboys, it's more disappoint than elation in recent year. They had issues on the offensive line a year ago and continued to suffer inconsistent play at quarterback. They addressed part of that issue by using a first-round draft pick on center Travis Frederick. Coach Garrett pledges to run the ball more, and take some of the pressure off Tony Romo. The problem is that despite the fact that Demarco Murray is a quality back, there is no proven runner behind him, and he has had issues getting through a 16-game season. The primary reason I like Miami here is that the Cowboys have made it clear they just want to get out of this game quickly, and with no injuries. Tony Romo and Kyle Orton will see no action. Murray and the starting offensive line will get limited reps. And with a lot of holes to fill, the rest of the time for Dallas in this game should resemble a science experiment. The Dolphins went "all in" during the free agent signing period. They added quality at wide receiver, tight end, and at offensive tackle, as well as a pair of linebackers for an immediate upgrade. They also traded up to No. 3 in the draft to get help on the offensive line by adding Dion Jordan. If nothing else, they added better starters in vulnerable places, leaving them with better depth than we see from Dallas. In a game that is going to challenge quality of depth, as these early games always do, Miami gets the nod. Joe Philbin showed no desire to win in the preseason last season but that often has a see-saw effect. Teams that do poorly in the preseason the prior year facing a team that did well the year prior, are good bets in the preseason. Take Miami here.

Cappers Access

Dolphins -2.5

2013 NFL Preseason Profit Report

Preseason Report - Part I

Betting on the NFL preseason is one of the most profitable endeavors you can partake in this football season. The secret to making money in the preseason is the ability to know which coaches are trying to win and which coaches are just going through the motions. That factor in itself will give you a huge edge over the sportsbooks year after year.

Also, I can't say it enough but you also need to be familiar with the history of each team in August. Plus, keeping an eye out on each team's preseason quarterback rotations will also make you turn a nice profit in the preseason. Without further adieu, let's start handicapping!

Preseason has taken on a new look recently

The recently signed collective bargaining agreement means more than stability for the next 10 years. The NFL game is undergoing a change because of the new CBA that will change the quality of play in the preseason.

New rules have modified practice schedules and forced coaches to make changes to their preparation, in these two ways:

Gone are the grueling two-a-day practices that have long been a staple of training camps. In their place, teams are able to have one full contact padded practice per day accompanied by a walkthrough period.

Saying this here are some old and new preseason trends we now have to focus on.

Teams like the Steelers and Ravens that have shown a strong tendency towards playing under games in the preseason with their aggressive play have now seen this neutralized with the new training rules.

The oddsmakers have not incorporated this into their posted totals yet for these teams, and have continued to post ultra-low line totals on the Steelers and Ravens – So keep a look out for some value plays on the over this preseason.

Here are some of my old favorite trends for this upcoming preseason.

New England – Let’s start off with one of my top rated preseason plays, and it focuses on coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots – Belichick has never liked to give anything away to his opponents – just look at one of his press conferences to see what I mean – well something shows up in the preseason every year from New England that we can take advantage of. Week 3 of the preseason is when all teams do their dress rehearsal for the season with all starters on both sides of the ball playing into the third quarter. Well again Belichick doesn’t want his regular season Week 1 opponent to get any films to look at so he doesn’t take this game seriously – and it show shows up in the point spread logs as the Patriots over the past five seasons are a perfect 0-5 against the spread in this situation. So mark down Aug. 22 on your calendar as the Patriots pay a visit to Detroit in their dress rehearsal game.

Tampa Bay - Every year I wait for the Buccaneers opening preseason game as no matter who the head coach is Tampa Bay always comes out ready to play as in Game 1. In the last 7 years they are a huge money maker going 6-1 against the spread to start the preseason. This year the Buccaneers open up against the Ravens on Aug. 8 - What really makes this a solid play this year is that we all know how the Super Bowl champions really don't give a damn about preseason games - so keep an eye out on this match-up this year.

Kansas City Chiefs - Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 4-21 (16%) against the spread over the past six years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for new head coach Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not giving a dame about these preseason games. Take a close look at the Chiefs first preseason game this year as Reid was 1-7 against the spread in his last eight opening preseason game in Philadelphia. Kansas City opens up this year at New Orleans on Aug. 9.

Atlanta Falcons - One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last eight years the Falcons have gone a perfect 8-0 outscoring their opposition 187-61 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 24 when they play Tennessee on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacksonville has emphasized offense in his opening preseason game as the Jaguars have seen the Over go a perfect 7-0 in their preseason opener since 2006. This year another high-scoring game can be on tap here as the Jaguars with be playing a Dolphins squad coming in off of a short week of preparation as they play in the Hall of Fame game this preseason against the Cowboys on Aug. 5. Just a heads up their new head coach is defensive minded.

Preseason Report - Part II

In my first installment, I touched on some great angles that I’ve been following and cashing for plenty of seasons. In this piece, I’ve listed some new developing trends from the last few preseasons.

Baltimore Ravens – The usual letdown from the Super Bowl champs should be apparent this preseason, and add in of what I spoke about above with the training camp rule changes – I can see the Ravens playing higher scoring games this preseason. This trend showed up big time last year with three of the four preseason Baltimore games going Over the posted total.

Buffalo Bills - The Bills have started a money making preseason trend the last three years having seen the Over be the winning side in their last three dress rehearsal games with 38-7, 35-32, and 35-20 finals. This year’s dress rehearsal game is against the Redskins on Aug. 24th. I have to add here that Washington in their last 2 dress rehearsal games have seen a combined 112 points scored - So this play can turn into a preseason double unit play here on the Over.

Carolina Panthers – The Panthers have started a solid trend to look for in their first preseason game – it’s apparent that their coaching staff thru the years has put less emphasis on this first game as Carolina is on a five-year run going 0-5 ATS to start the preseason. This year’s opening game will be against a Bears team on Aug. 9 whom will have a new head coach in Marc Trestman who may be looking to impress with a win in his first career game as head coach.

Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals used to be a team that always played hard in their last preseason game – however maybe it was because they just were playing against a Colts squad back then that just didn’t try in these meaningless preseason games. However in the past three years the Bengals have gone 0-3 against the spread. Something to watch for as once again Cincinnati finishes up with Indianapolis on Aug. 29 as Pagano seems like he wants to win these games.

Dallas Cowboys - We have some history to look back on here as in 2010 the Cowboys played against the Bengals in the Hall of Fame game. The Dallas offense could just manage three field goals and were held out of the end zone. Romo just played part of the first quarter and threw for just 59 yards. So I look for another conservative game plan from the Cowboys here - What really makes me like another lower scoring game in this spot here is that head coach of the Dolphins Joe Philbin came out last year in the Dolphins first preseason game and also used a vanilla offense game plan as Miami could only put up seven points on the scoreboard. This game has Under written all over it.

Plus one last think to mention here is that the last time the Cowboys played in the Hall of Fame game and played five preseason games – they sure didn’t try defensively in their final and fifth preseason game as 52 points were scored. Again something to look for this year as they play a Texans team on Aug. 29 that tends to play higher scoring games in their last preseason game.

Denver Broncos – Since coming over to Denver – John Fox has definitely had the Broncos ready to start the preseason as the result of both of his opening games had the Broncos and the Over being the winning sides - with Denver scoring a combined 55 points and both of these games were on the road. Denver opens up again on the road this year against the 49ers – So the Broncos will be a very live ‘dog in this spot.

However Fox sure hasn’t cared if the Broncos won in their dress rehearsal games as both have been losing efforts against the San Francisco and Seattle. This year’s dress rehearsal game will be on the Aug. 24 against the Rams.

Detroit Lions – The Lions have been a solid play in the preseason as of late going a solid 9-3 over the last three seasons – Plus if we get a closer look Detroit has finished the preseason strong going a perfect 3-0 in Game 4 of the preseason. This season the Lions finish up at Buffalo on Aug. 29th.

Green Bay Packers - Under head coach Mike McCarthy a solid trend has been in effect for years that has seen the Packers incorporate a wide-open game plan over the past six years that has seen the Over go an impressive 16-8 in the preseason. Last year this trend showed a backward trend – which I feel is good for us as I see the oddsmakers lowering these Green Bay totals some this year. You just watch have the Packers come out to start the preseason this year on both sides of the ball.

Houston Texans – The Texans seem to be fitting in nicely with the new CBA restrictions for the preseason as in the last two years the Kubiack lead Texans have gone 6-2 against the spread. Plus they are a perfect 4-0 in their first two preseason games of the year. This year Houston’s first two games will be against Minnesota on Aug. 9, and then against Miami at home on Aug. 17.

Indianapolis Colts – The Colts always never tried in these preseason games going back to when Dungy was the head coach, and were a definite fade candidate every year. However when Chuck Pagano was hired as head coach last season things sure changed – as the Colts went 3-1 against the spread while scoring 114 points in the process – which also saw the Over go 3-1. Something to watch this preseason as I feel the oddsmakers will still be releasing lines based on the Colts prior losing ways in the preseason.

Miami Dolphins – As always when a new head coach is hired we take a step back to see if we can find any preseason trends that we can make some money on. Well with Joe Philbin taking over as the Dolphins coach last season – we sure may have found a strong trend to watch for this preseason – as the Philbin lead Dolphins went a perfect 0-4 both straight up and against the spread last year. Strong watch here especially if the Dolphins start the preseason slow again.

Minnesota Vikings - With Leslie Frazier now settled in as head coach of the Vikings an early preseason trend has developed with the new CBA rules now in effect. Frazier’s style seems to not put much into the first preseason game for the Vikings – however in game #2 it looks like he tries to win this game – as in the past 2 preseason the Vikings are 0-2 in game #1 – while going 2-0 in Game 2. This year the Vikings open up against Houston on Aug. 9th – then head to Buffalo for Game 2.

New York Giants – A solid money-making trend has shown up for the Giants as of late as Tom Coughlin in the past three years has seemed to want to get the Giants last preseason done with in a hurry, which has produced three straight low-scoring games and the undergoing a perfect 3-0. So let’s look for the same result here as Bill Belichick seems very happy to play this kind of game in this scenario when the Giants and Patriots hook up on Aug. 29.

New York Jets – For the other New York team we have another strong trend that can make us some money this preseason – however this one is in the Jets first preseason game of the year – as head coach Rex Ryan has never liked playing this first preseason game, and I feel the new CBA rules have really effected the Jets a lot – as with reduced hitting in workouts it hurts the Jets physical style especially in Game 1 where the Jets under Ryan are a perfect 0-4 against the spread. Look for more of the same here this year as the Jets open up against a Lions team that likes to win their preseason games.

New Orleans Saints – Strong preseason trend we can follow with the Saints as their high-octane offense sure gears up as the preseason progresses. In the past three seasons the Saints have seen the over go a perfect 6-0 in their last 2 preseason games of the year with 51, 57, 60, 41, 51, and 61 points scored. This year the Saints finish up Houston on Aug. 25 and Miami on the Aug. 29.

Oakland Raiders – This Raiders write-up really should be in my favorite preseason trends – however I’ll leave it in this section for now – Oakland no matter who the head coach is always seem to finish the preseason on a down note – as in the past six years they are a perfect 0-6 against the spread in their last preseason game of the year. This year’s finale for the Raiders is on Aug. 29 against the Seahawks. Just to show you how bad the Raiders have been in this scenario lately the Seahawks have outscored them 41-6 the past two years.

Pittsburgh Steelers –In Part I of my report, I talked about how the new CBA preseason rules would affect the physical teams in the league, and the Steelers definitely fit into this mold. The change in style was apparent in last year’s preseason as the usually lower-scoring Pittsburgh games – showed a complete turnaround as the Steelers played three high-scoring games and ended the preseason seeing the Over go 3-1. With the oddsmakers still leaning towards the old trends for the Steelers will give us some solid value plays on the over this preseason.

San Francisco 49ers – With the 49ers just falling short in last year’s Super Bowl we may see a lackluster effort from them this preseason. However with Jim Harbaugh their head coach a repeat of last year’s preseason may be on the horizon where the 49ers went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread. Just watch how San Francisco comes out of the gate this preseason to get a gear on what mindset they have.

Seattle Seahawks - The new rules sure haven’t affected Pete Carroll and the Seahawks – as Seattle over the past two preseasons have gone 7-1 against the spread. Only thing to watch out for this year is that they will be without their sharp defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.

St. Louis Rams – The Rams will be a team to watch this preseason as Jeff Fisher always took the preseason seriously when he was with the Titans, and this sure carried over to the Rams in his first season with them as the Rams went 3-1 against the spread last year. Plus I also have to note here is that St Louis saw the Over go 3-1 in their four preseason games a year ago.

Tennessee Titans – Not too much to look at in Mike Munchak’s start of his coaching career in Tennessee – However I did find that the Titans as a underdog under Munchak have gone 3-1 against the spread the past two years.

Washington - Mike Shanahan has always taken these preseason games seriously, and a strong trend has developed since his return with the Redskins, and that is that Washington is a perfect 3-0 in their dress rehearsal game since Shanahan has returned dominating their opponent in all three of these games. Washington’s dress rehearsal game this year is against the Bills on Aug. 24.

Preseason Report - Part III

In Part I and II of the Preseason Report, we discussed trends for teams and more importantly, their coaches. As mentioned before, coaching is a key factor in the preseason and you should be aware of this year's head coaching changes. This season we have eight coaching changes coming into the 2013 season.

Here is this year's list:

Arizona - Bruce Arians - was the former Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator - Arians filled in for head coach Chuck Pagano while he battled leukemia, and went 9-3 in his absence.

Buffalo - Doug Maronne - Syracuse head coach for the past 4 years - his prior NFL experience was with the New Orleans back in 2008 as the Saints offensive coordinator.

Chicago - Marc Trestman - Former coach of the Montreal Alouettes - NFL experience as an Offensive coordinator for the 49ers and Raiders.

Cleveland - Rob Chudzinski - Offensive coordinator of the Carolina Panthers - however the offense will be turned over to Norv Turner.

Jacksonville - Gus Bradley - Former defensive coordinator the last four seasons of the league-leading Seahawks defense.

Kansas City - Andy Reid - head coach of the Eagles the last 14 years.

Philadelphia - Chip Kelly - head coach of the Oregon Ducks - offensive genius of the Ducks high octane offense - first NFL coaching job.

San Diego - Mike McCoy - is the former Broncos offensive coordinator for the Broncos and helped lead Denver to the playoffs the past two seasons with two totally different quarterbacks' styles.

Here are each teams Quarterback Rotations for this Preseason (R - Rookie):

Arizona - Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, Caleb TerBush (R - Purdue)

Atlanta - Matt Ryan, Dominique Davis, Sean Renfree (R - Duke), Seth Doege (R - Texas Tech)

Baltimore - Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Caleb Hanie

Buffalo - Kevin Kolb, EJ Manuel (R - Florida State), Jeff Tuel (R - Washington State)

Carolina - Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Jimmy Clausen, Colby Cameron (R - La. Tech)

Chicago - Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Matt Blanchard

Cincinnati - Andy Dalton, John Skelton, Josh Johnson, Zac Robinson

Cleveland - Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell, Brian Hoyer

Dallas - Tony Romo, Kyle Orton, Aaron Corp

Denver - Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert (R - Miami, OH), Ryan Katz (R - San Diego State)

Detroit - Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, Kellen Moore

Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers, Graham Harrell, B.J. Coleman

Houston - Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, Stephen McGee, Case Keenum

Indianapolis - Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish

Jacksonville - Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, Mike Kafka, Matt Scott (R - Arizona)

Kansas City - Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray (R - Tennessee), Ricky Stanzi

Miami - Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin

Minnesota - Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, James Vandenberg (R - Iowa)

New England - Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Tim Tebow

New Orleans - Drew Brees, Seneca Wallace, Luke McCown, Ryan Griffin (R - Tulane)

New York Giants - Eli Manning, David Carr, Ryan Nassib (R - Syracuse), Curtis Painter

New York Jets - Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith (R - West Virginia), Greg McElroy, Matt Simms

Oakland - Matt Flynn, Terrelle Pryor, Tyler Wilson (R - Arkansas)

Philadelphia - Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley (Rookie - USC)

Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, John Parker Wilson, Landry Jones (R - Oklahoma)

San Diego - Philip Rivers, Charlie Whitehurst, Brad Sorensen (R - Southern Utah), Mike Hermann (R - RPI)

San Francisco - Colin Kaepernick, Colt McCoy, Scott Tolzien, B.J. Daniels (R - South Florida)

Seattle - Russell Wilson, Brady Quinn, Tarvaris Jackson

St. Louis - Sam Bradford, Kellen Clemens, Austin Davis

Tampa Bay - Josh Freeman, Mike Glennon (R - N.C. State), Dan Orlovsky, Adam Weber

Tennessee - Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rusty Smith, Nathan Enderle

Washington - Robert Griffin III (Will not play in preseason), Kirk Cousins, Rex Grossman, Pat White

NASCAR betting: GoBowling.com 400 at Pocono preview
By JASON LOGAN

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to the “Tricky Triangle” for the GoBowling.com 400 at Pocono Raceway. The unique 2.5-mile tri-oval track at Long Pond, PA is unlike any other course on the Sprint Cup calendar, presenting some betting value for racing fans.

Favorite: Jimmy Johnson (+325)

Even if you take away Johnson’s success at Pocono, it’s nearly impossible not to have him at the top of the NASCAR odds board this season. The No. 48 car is running away with the points lead and is coming off a runner-up finish at Indianapolis last weekend. Add to that, Johnson’s average finish of 9.0, two wins (one in this year’s June race) and 15 Top 10 finishes in 22 races at Long Pond, and you’re paying a premium for J.J. this Sunday.

Live dog: Jeff Gordon (+1,150)

Gordon is getting great odds at Pocono, where he sits only second to his teammate Johnson in terms of success. The No. 24 team has rolled into Victory Lane six times at the “Tricky Triangle” – including last August’s race - and boasts an average finish of 10.2. Gordon is picking up momentum in recent races, finishing inside the Top 10 in four of his last five starts and cracked the Top 10 in the points thanks to a seventh-place showing at the Brickyard last weekend.

Long shot: Ryan Newman (+1,950)

“The Rocket Man” posted a statement win at Indianapolis, just two weeks removed from losing his ride for the 2014 season. Newman caught the attention of many teams but may need to continue his winning ways to land a new team. He’s come to the right place. Pocono has been kind to Newman, who owns an average finish of 12.4 and a victory there in 2003. Stewart-Haas racing did plenty of testing at the tri-oval, which runs very similar to Indianapolis, and the motivation of finding a new job and a wild card spot in the Chase is reason enough to like Newman at these odds.

Key stat: Jimmie Johnson won the Party in the Poconos 400 back in June. Only six drivers have swept both races at Pocono and Johnson is one of them, winning both events at Long Pond in 2004.

Notable quotable:

"Pocono is fun, you just get up on the wheel there because all three corners are different and they change throughout the race. I’ve had success at Pocono in the past and I think we did really well there the last time (early June). Qualifying got rained out and we started 20th and then raced straight up to seventh immediately. Then we hit a brick wall and were stuck in seventh all race long and even finished in seventh.” – Kyle Busch told MotorSport.com.

Odds to win the GoBowling.com 400 (Courtesy of 5Dimes.eu)

Jimmie Johnson 13-4
Denny Hamlin 13-2
Tony Stewart 15-2
Kasey Kahne 17-2
Jeff Gordon 23-2
Kyle Busch 23-2
Matt Kenseth 23-2
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 33-2
Kurt Busch 33-2
Brad Keselowski 18-1
Ryan Newman 39-2
Kevin Harvick 39-2
Carl Edwards 20-1
Greg Biffle 23-1
Joey Logano 23-1
Clint Bowyer 55-2
Juan Montoya 33-1
Martin Truex Jr. 33-1
Jamie McMurray 44-1

Hall of Fame Game betting preview: Dolphins vs. Cowboys

Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys (+2.5, 33)

Two of the NFL’s most storied franchises clash in Canton, Ohio for the NFL’s Hall of Fame weekend. The Dolphins are aiming for an improvement in the AFC East, capitalizing on what could be a weak year for the division. The Cowboys hope coaching changes on offense and defense can maximize the team’s potential and get Dallas back to the playoffs in 2013.

Odds

Sportsbooks opened the Cowboys as big as 1.5-point favorites for this neutral-site game but action on the Dolphins has pushed the spread all the way to Dallas +2.5. The total opened at as high as 34.5 and has been bet down to 33 points heading into the weekend.

Hall of Fame Game trends

The New Orleans Saints beat the Arizona Cardinals 17-10 as 3-point favorites in the 2012 Hall of Fame Game. Favorites are 9-6 SU and 7-6-2 SU ATS since 1996 with those games going 8-7 over/under. Four of the last six Hall of Fame Games have played under the total, with the 2011 HoF Game cancelled due to the NFL lockout.

Dallas is 1-3 SU all-time in the Hall of Fame Game, with a 2-0 ATS record and 1-1 O/U mark with spreads available. Miami boasts a 0-3 SU mark all-time in the HoF Game, going 0-1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U with odds available. These teams met in Week 4 of the 2012 preseason, with the Cowboys winning 30-13 as 2.5-point home favorites. Dallas and Miami have met eight times in the regular season since 1987, with the teams splitting those meetings 4-4 SU and ATS and going 2-6 over/under.

Capping the QBs

Dallas quarterback Tony Romo will not play in Sunday’s Hall of Fame Game, still recovering from having surgery to remove a cyst on his back this summer. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett said that even if Romo was suiting up, he would only see one or two series and would be limited in pass attempts.

The other reason Romo is sitting out is the shaky shape of the Dallas offensive line. The Cowboys protection is still a work in progress and hasn’t looked sharp in camp. That could mean a long night for backups Kyle Orton, Nick Stephens and Alex Tanney. Orton has digressed as Dallas’ second stringer and Stephens is fighting off Tanney, who could be a surprise star this preseason. He’s freakishly athletic and has great arm strength and accuracy.

Miami will give No. 1 Ryan Tannehill some work during Sunday’s game but head coach Joe Philbin is tight lipped about how many snaps his second-year passer will take. He passed for 103.5 yards on 19.5 attempts per game in the preseason last year.

“We’re going to evaluate the practice tape and then we’re going to make a decision in regard to playing time tomorrow as to who’s going to be getting the majority of the snaps and the guidelines,” Philbin told the Palm Beach Post. “We’ll have a guideline of ‘X’ amount of snaps.”

The Dolphins have Matt Moore and Pat Devlin behind Tannehill. Moore was the Fins No. 1 QB in 2011, putting up 2,497 yards, 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in 12 games, going 6-6 SU in those contests. He’s regarded as one of the best backups in the NFL heading into 2013. Devlin has impressed this summer and has shown the ability to make plays with his legs, which could come in handy with Miami’s offensive line missing some key cogs.

Dallas notes

- Romo isn’t the only Cowboys starter sitting out Sunday’s exhibition kickoff. According to reports out of Dallas, numerous first stringers will pass on Canton. One of those starters expected to be on the field is WR Dez Bryant, who returned to practice this week after sitting out with a sore hip. Bryant, who reeled in 1,382 yards and 12 touchdowns, is primed for a breakout season in 2013.

- Dallas is working in a new offensive coordinator in Bill Callahan and a new defensive coordinator in Monte Kiffin. Callahan is throwing some wrinkles into the offensive playbook, copying what the New England Patriots have done with their tight end sets. He’s also flirted with a pistol offense to jumpstart the running game behind RB DeMarco Murray, who when healthy can break the back of a defense. The stop unit is switching up from the 3-4 to the 4-3 with Cover 2 schemes. Many players, like DeMarcus Ware moving from LB to DE, are switching positions. Dallas takes the new defense for a test drive Sunday night.

Miami notes

- Miami was 0-4 SU and ATS in the preseason last year, focusing more on adjusting to Philbin’s new sets and getting Tannehill some time under center. This time around, the Dolphins are out to win some exhibition games and show they can contend in the AFC East. Philbin’s main focus this summer is playing with speed, which should be easy with some new additions to the WR corps. Miami brought in WRs Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson as well as TE Dustin Keller. Wallace and fellow receiver Brian Hartline hope to play Sunday after returning from injuries this week.

- The Dolphins running game has no face with Reggie Bush leaving for Detroit. Running backs Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are expected to get the bulk of the carries this season, but fellow rushers Mike Gillislee and Marcus Thigpen will share the load Sunday. The rushing attack could have a tough time gaining traction behind a thinning offensive line. Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman told reporters he’ll likely roll out his best five-player combo, ignoring set positions on the o-line.

NFL Week 1 Handicapping 'TIP
from Bryan Leonard

With the preseason getting underway this weekend I would like to share something that has worked for me in the past.

Write down all the NFL opening week lines the day before the preseason tips off in Canton. These lines are out and have been bet into for some time now.

Then check the lines after all the preseason games are played. Write down the new lines for the opening week and you can see the movement preseason play has caused.

Since we all know that exhibition games mean virtually nothing we can take advantage of public perception by fading the line moves. It's worked for me in the past. let's see if it continues.

Sunday's National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Sunday's National League games:

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds (-125, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Reds starter Mike Leake is 2-3 with a 4.76 ERA in seven career appearances (six starts) versus the Cards.

Cold batting stat: Cards OF Carlos Beltran is 2-for-18 (.111) in his career versus Leake.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 10 mph.

Key betting note: The Cardinals are 20-5 in SP Lance Lynn's last 25 starts versus the National League Central.


Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates (-174, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Despite a dynamite 2.08 ERA in his five July starts, Pirates starter A.J. Burnett finished the month 0-1. Burnett gets the fourth-lowest run support in the bigs among qualified pitchers at just 3.16 runs per game.

Cold batting stat: Rockies OF Michael Cuddyer is 3-for-24 with eight K's in his career versus Burnett.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 12 mph. There is a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Key betting note: The Rockies are 5-13 in SP Juan Nicasio's last 18 starts as an underdog.


Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers (-117, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Brewers starter Kyle Lohse gave up just four hits and one earned run over eight excellent innings in a 4-1 victory over the Nationals back on July 3.

Hot batting stat: Nats OF Jayson Werth is 8-for-25 (.320) with three doubles and three home runs in his career versus Lohse.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 6 mph. There is a 10 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Key betting note: The Brewers are 6-0 in Lohse's last six home starts.


Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (-141, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Dodgers starter Zack Greinke is 0-2 with a 14.00 ERA in two career starts at Wrigley Field.

Cold batting stat: Dodgers 1B Adrian Gonzalez is 3-for-15 (.200) in his career versus Cubs starter Carlos Villanueva.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Cubs are 1-5 in Villanueva's last six home starts.


Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Phillies starter Cliff Lee is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in his previous two starts.

Cold batting stat: Braves OF Jason Heyward is 2-for-17 (.118) in his career versus Lee.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 22-5-1 in umpire Kerwin Danley's last 28 games behind home plate.


Interleague

Kansas City Royals at New York Mets (+130, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Royals starter Ervin Santana is 2-0 with a 1.21 ERA over his previous three starts. The Royals are 3-0 in those starts.

Cold batting stat: Royals OF Alex Gordon is 0-for-8 through the first two games of the series.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 13 mph. There is a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for gametime.

Key betting note: The over is 11-1-1 in umpire Jim Wolf's last 13 interleague games behind home plate.


Cleveland Indians at Miami Marlins (+110, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Indians starter Scott Kazmir was 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his six July starts.

Cold batting stat: Tribe hitters fanned 14 times against Jose Fernandez in Friday's 10-0 loss.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-90s with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The Indians are 12-2 in their last 14 during Game 3 of a series.


New York Yankees at San Diego Padres (-110, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Yankees starter Phil Hughes had a rough outing his last time out. The righty surrendered five earned runs, nine hits and two homers over his four innings of work against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Cold pitching stat: Padres slugger Carlos Quentin is 0-for-6 lifetime versus Hughes.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 10 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 5-1 in Hughes' last six starts versus a team with a losing record.


* Odds courtesy of BetOnline.com

** Odds, probable starters, stats and weather forecast as of 8:36 p.m. ET.

Sunday's American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Sunday's American League games:

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (-210, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Detroit's Rick Porcello was brilliant in the month of July. He won all four of his starts and posted a 2.08 ERA.

Cold batting stat: Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox is 5-for-36 (.139) in his career versus Porcello.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 11 mph. There is a 10 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Key betting note: The under is 5-1 in Porcello's last six starts versus the White Sox.


Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (-185, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: Seattle's Joe Saunders put up identical nine hit, five earned run performances in his last two outings. His ERA is 9.31 in those previous two starts.

Hot batting stat: Mariners OF Michael Morse hit a two-run homer off O's starter Wei-Yin Chen on May 1. Morse is 3-for-5 with a walk in his career versus the Orioles' southpaw.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 15 mph.

Key betting note: The Orioles are 5-0 in Chen's last five home starts.


Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (OFF, OFF)

Cold pitching stat: Twins starter Mike Pelfrey took a beating in his last start. The righty gave up eight hits, four earned runs and a home run en route to the 7-2 loss versus the Kansas City Royals on July 30.

Hot batting stat: Twins 2B Brian Dozier went 3-for-7 with a run and two RBIs, including the walk off, game-winning single in the bottom of the 13th inning in Friday's 4-3 victory.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 5 mph. There is a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast for gametime.

Key betting note: The under is 8-1 in umpire Jim Reynolds' last nine Sunday games behind home plate.


Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels (-141, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Toronto's Mark Buehrle has been a breath of fresh air for Jays' pitching. The lefty is 2-0 while tossing 16 shutout innings over his last two starts.

Hot batting stat: Jays 1B/DH Adam Lind is 5-for-10 with a homer, double and triple in his career versus Angels starter C.J. Wilson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1 in Buehrle's last eight road starts.


Texas Rangers at Oakland A's (-125, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Oakland's starter A.J. Griffin has surrendered eight homers in his previous three starts.

Cold batting stat: A's OF Coco Crisp is just 1-for-10 in his career versus Rangers starter Derek Holland.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The Rangers are 8-1 in Holland's last nine starts versus the American League West.


Interleague

Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox (-185, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: After reeling off three straight wins, Sox starter Felix Doubront has lost his last two outings.

Cold batting stat: Sox 1B Mike Napoli is 3-for-16 (.188) lifetime versus scheduled DBacks starter Brandon McCarthy.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 6 mph. There is a 10 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Key betting note: The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last six games versus a left-handed starter.


San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays (-200, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Guillermo Moscoso is slated to get to the start for San Francisco. It will be his first start of the season.

Hot batting stat: Giants 1B Brandon Belt busted out of his slump in a big way Friday. Belt went 3-for-4 with a home run and triple in the Giants' 4-1 victory.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: The under is 6-1-1 in Rays' SP Roberto Hernandez's last eight starts overall.


* Odds courtesy of BetOnline.com

** Odds, probable starters, stats and weather forecast as of 8:36 p.m. ET.

Sunday Night Baseball: Braves at Phillies
By STEVE MERRIL

The hot Atlanta Braves face the slumping Phillies in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Baseball.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 7.5)

LEE-VING IT ON THE MOUND

The Phillies will welcome the return of Cliff Lee to the mound where he is 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the season. The lefty missed his last start due to neck stiffness. Lee last pitched on July 21st in New York against the Mets; he allowed five runs and seven hits in six innings. That was his third straight outing in which he allowed four earned runs or more. Lee beat the Braves at home on July 5 despite allowing four runs and eight hits in just over six innings. The southpaw pitched fantastically to open his season in Atlanta back on April 4 giving up just two hits in eight innings.

WOOD LIKE ANOTHER VICTORY

Alex Wood is making his third start of the season; he is coming off a victory over the Rockies. Wood gave up three runs and six hits in seven innings to pick up the win over Colorado. The southpaw struck out 12 while walking only three in his two previous starts this season. He threw 1 2/3 innings in Philadelphia back on July 6 and 7 and gave up one run and two hits. The southpaw was 5-2 with a 1.31 ERA in 11 starts between AA and AAA this season. Wood struck out 62 in those games while walking only 17.

INJURY REPORT

These two NL East rivals are two of the most banged up teams in the league. As mentioned above, Cliff Lee is dealing with a stiff neck. His rotation mates Jonathan Pettibone and Roy Halladay are out due to shoulder ailments. Ben Revere and Ryan Howard are out of the lineup due to knee and foot problems. Mike Adams is done for the season with three tears in his shoulder.

The Braves’ bullpen is nowhere near 100% with Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters both getting Tommy John surgery. Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm are both out of the rotation with Hudson done for the season. Reed Johnson and Jordan Schafer are also on the disabled list as well.

TRENDS

Braves are 16-7 in their last 23 Sunday games
Braves are 1-5 their last six games with ump Kerwin Danley behind home plate

Phillies are 3-8 in Lee’s last 11 Sunday starts
Phillies are 19-9 Under in Lee’s last 28 starts

HITTERS TO WATCH

Jimmy Rollins 0-for-2 vs. Wood
Darin Ruf 1-for-1 vs. Wood

Jason Heyward 2-for-17 vs. Lee
Brian McCann 8-for-23 vs. Lee

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Pirates on Saturday and likes the Pirates on Sunday.

The deficit is 1358 sirignanos.

Can'tPickaWinner said:

Cappers Access

Dolphins -2.5

Click to expand...

Pirates(RL) -1.5(+110)
Padres +110

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Kansas City at NY Mets[/h] The Royals look to build on their 7-0 record in their last 7 road games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Kansas City is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-145). Here are all of today's picks.

Vic Monte Sports
Private Play Game of The Year #9 Tigers

Power play wins
Cleveland -120 (Kazmir)

Fantasy Sports Game Time
Top Play Pittsburgh-180

other Plays
Boston-156
LAAngels-135
Baltimore-180