[h=1]Betting Aldo vs. Sung Jung[/h][h=3]Finding value in the main event, Machida-Davis and all main UFC 163 bouts[/h]By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
While drumming up popularity for the lower weight classes in the UFC has been a challenge since its merger with the WEC, Jose Aldo continues to transcend all lack of interest at featherweight, as he defends his title for the fifth straight time since entering the league when he takes on Chan Sung Jung on Saturday at UFC 163.
And as Aldo, one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, takes on a fighter who has seemingly defied all logic in his ability to take punishment and still find victory in Sung Jung, the featherweight championship fight again promises to be a compelling battle. In addition to the main fight, UFC 163 features a bout between two of the most talented light heavyweight fighters in Lyoto Machida and Phil Davis, both of whom could make a case for a title shot with a definitive victory.
Let's break down the odds and statistics behind all of the key fights on Saturday night to see where the value lies.
<CENTER>[h=3]Jose Aldo (minus-700) versus Chan Sung Jung (plus-500)[/h]</CENTER>
The record of Aldo more than paints a picture of what to expect in this fight, as he has lost only once in his career, which occurred nearly eight years ago. Since coming into his own in the sport, Aldo has definitively held the featherweight belt since winning it in the WEC in 2009, having defended his title six times against some of the sport's top competition. And against Sung Jung, it should be business as usual for Aldo, as he faces an opponent who presents far less of a challenge than previous foes.
While the initial strikes landed per minute (SLpM) comparison between the two fighters may seem like it favors Sung Jung -- with Aldo possessing a 3.46 SLpM to Sung Jung's 4.61 SLpM -- these statistics only tell half of the story as Sung Jung owns a very distinct style and strategy. One of the things that Sung Jung is most known for, made famous by his nickname the "Korean Zombie," is his ability to absorb an incredible amount of damage and still come out on top against opponents. With Sung Jung owning a very high 3.77 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) rate, compared to Aldo's elusive 1.91, the numbers instantly take on a different meaning. Taking the SLpM and SApM ratios in context, Aldo lands nearly twice as many strikes as his opponents (1.81), while Sung Jung lands just 1.22. In a division in which knockouts aren't the norm, Sung Jung has had success with this strategy, but against Aldo, who holds an incredibly elevated finishing rate for a featherweight, Sung Jung will most likely find that his game plan won't work against Aldo.
Given that Aldo has closed out 13 out of his 22 career wins by KO/TKO, Sung Jung will have a much more difficult time conceding strikes and remaining upright than he has in the past. And with Sung Jung having fallen victim to KO/TKO via a head kick by George Roop, he won't find himself any safer against the dangerous kicks of Aldo. With the combination of one of the worst defensive fighters facing one of the sport's most dangerous strikers, consider Aldo at even a large minus-700 favorite a reasonable price for what should be just as much of a rout as the odds indicate.
Insider value pick: <OFFER>Stay away</OFFER>
<CENTER>[h=3]Lyoto Machida (minus-360) versus Phil Davis (plus-300)[/h]</CENTER>
Though both Machida and Davis are among the most talented fighters in the light heavyweight division, both have the tendency to play it safe when it comes to risk-taking. And while this matchup might be one of the best the division has to offer, it easily could be a three-round stalemate in which neither fighter accomplishes much. And given both fighters' propensity to play it safe, the odds falling extremely in favor of Machida seem a bit off.
When breaking down the statistics, it appears that Machida is a perfect counterpoint to Davis' strengths, and vice versa. While Machida is known for his striking accuracy, landing a solid 57 percent of his attempts (seventh in MMA history), Davis actually possesses some of best striking defense in MMA (fourth in MMA history), successfully defending a very high 74.2 percent of opponent attempts. And while Davis might have one of the best striking defenses in the sport, it comes as a result of his wrestling prowess as opposed to his striking ability, as he lands a high 2.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. Against Machida, however, he'll have a harder time getting his opponent to the ground, as Machida successfully defends 79 percent of takedowns attempted against him.
Machida's stand-up game presents the biggest threat to Davis, as he has utilized it to win seven fights by knockout. But with Davis having never been finished in his career, and possessing a solid striking defense, the chances of this being his first knockout are lower than with most of Machida's opponents.
In Davis' favor, however, is the fact that he is seven years younger than the 35-year-old Machida and holds a five-inch reach advantage, which he can use to maintain his distance against the elusive striker. And with both fighters going to decision often, in more than half of their career fights, a few successful takedowns by Davis, while both play it safe, could make all the difference on the judges' scorecards. Thus, consider Davis as a sizeable plus-300 underdog a great value for what should be a closer fight than what most think.
Insider value pick: Davis
<CENTER>[h=3]Vinny Magalhaes (minus-340) versus Anthony Perosh (plus-280)[/h]</CENTER>
With the exception of legend Randy Couture, it's not often that you see fighters having success into their 40s. And with Perosh, 40, taking on 29-year-old Vinny Magalhaes, that trend shouldn't change any time soon as he'll have more than his hands full with the talented grappler.
Perhaps Perosh's biggest strength is his submission ability, having gained nine out of his 13 career victories in this manner and averaging 1.37 submissions per 15 minutes. Against Magalhaes, however, this strength will be somewhat obsolete as he faces a much more talented and well-rounded Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. With Magalhaes having won a division in the Abu Dhabi Combat Club championships, most notably defeating Fabricio Werdum to do so, he'll surely have nothing to fear against Perosh, especially since Magalhaes has never been submitted in his career. And while Perosh also has never been submitted before, Magalhaes hasn't fallen victim to the knockout nearly as much as Perosh has. With his last KO/TKO loss coming at the hands of Ryan Bader in 2008, Magalhaes has since gone on a 9-3 run, his losses only coming by decision. Perosh, on the other hand, has fallen victim to KO/TKO five times in his career, most recently to Ryan Jimmo, against whom he only lasted seven seconds into the first round. While Magalhaes isn't necessarily a knockout artist, with just two career KO/TKO victories, he does possess a cautious striking strategy, successfully defending a high 69 percent of opponent attempts. And given that he possesses double the takedown accuracy of Perosh, successfully landing 44 percent of his attempts compared Perosh's 22 percent, he should be able to do enough in the ground game to safely appear to the judges like the definitive victor in this one.
And with the potential to also catch Perosh by KO/TKO, the younger Magalhaes should have what it takes to dominate this fight as he continues to improve, making him a good value at just minus-340.
Insider value pick: Magalhaes
<CENTER>[h=3]Ian McCall (minus-410) versus Iliarde Santos (plus-290)[/h]</CENTER>
After close back-to-back decision losses to current UFC champion Demetrious Johnson and the other to former WEC champion Joseph Benavidez, McCall gets a chance to climb back to the top of the division when he takes on a much inferior fighter in Santos. Given how statistics often underrate McCall, his ability should make for a much more dominant fight than the odds would indicate.
Though not much is known about Santos outside of his one KO/TKO loss to Yuri Alcantara, much is known about the ability of McCall to put up very efficient numbers. With Iliarde averaging just 1.19 SLpM in his one UFC fight, McCall maintains a very high 3.25 SLpM while avoiding 64 percent of opponent strikes. Not only does McCall possess above-average striking skills, but he is also well rounded in the ground game, landing 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. Therefore, he can likely win the fight on both his feet and on the ground depending on whichever he finds necessary. And as far as defense is concerned, there isn't much of a chance that McCall will be in much danger, as he holds a very high 83 percent takedown defense, and has never been knocked out in his career. With his one non-decision loss coming by submission, staying off of his back against Iliarde -- who unsuccessfully failed to land any of his takedown attempts in his previous fight -- should keep McCall immune to another submission loss. Add to this McCall's ability to close out fights by KO/TKO, having gained four victories in the past in this manner, and delivering Santos his second UFC loss in this manner isn't improbable, either.
Thus, with multiple ways to win the fight, and given that McCall rarely finds himself in much danger, consider him much more than a minus-410 favorite against the overmatched Santos.
Insider value pick: McCall
ESPN INSIDER
While drumming up popularity for the lower weight classes in the UFC has been a challenge since its merger with the WEC, Jose Aldo continues to transcend all lack of interest at featherweight, as he defends his title for the fifth straight time since entering the league when he takes on Chan Sung Jung on Saturday at UFC 163.
And as Aldo, one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, takes on a fighter who has seemingly defied all logic in his ability to take punishment and still find victory in Sung Jung, the featherweight championship fight again promises to be a compelling battle. In addition to the main fight, UFC 163 features a bout between two of the most talented light heavyweight fighters in Lyoto Machida and Phil Davis, both of whom could make a case for a title shot with a definitive victory.
Let's break down the odds and statistics behind all of the key fights on Saturday night to see where the value lies.
<CENTER>[h=3]Jose Aldo (minus-700) versus Chan Sung Jung (plus-500)[/h]</CENTER>
The record of Aldo more than paints a picture of what to expect in this fight, as he has lost only once in his career, which occurred nearly eight years ago. Since coming into his own in the sport, Aldo has definitively held the featherweight belt since winning it in the WEC in 2009, having defended his title six times against some of the sport's top competition. And against Sung Jung, it should be business as usual for Aldo, as he faces an opponent who presents far less of a challenge than previous foes.
While the initial strikes landed per minute (SLpM) comparison between the two fighters may seem like it favors Sung Jung -- with Aldo possessing a 3.46 SLpM to Sung Jung's 4.61 SLpM -- these statistics only tell half of the story as Sung Jung owns a very distinct style and strategy. One of the things that Sung Jung is most known for, made famous by his nickname the "Korean Zombie," is his ability to absorb an incredible amount of damage and still come out on top against opponents. With Sung Jung owning a very high 3.77 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) rate, compared to Aldo's elusive 1.91, the numbers instantly take on a different meaning. Taking the SLpM and SApM ratios in context, Aldo lands nearly twice as many strikes as his opponents (1.81), while Sung Jung lands just 1.22. In a division in which knockouts aren't the norm, Sung Jung has had success with this strategy, but against Aldo, who holds an incredibly elevated finishing rate for a featherweight, Sung Jung will most likely find that his game plan won't work against Aldo.
Given that Aldo has closed out 13 out of his 22 career wins by KO/TKO, Sung Jung will have a much more difficult time conceding strikes and remaining upright than he has in the past. And with Sung Jung having fallen victim to KO/TKO via a head kick by George Roop, he won't find himself any safer against the dangerous kicks of Aldo. With the combination of one of the worst defensive fighters facing one of the sport's most dangerous strikers, consider Aldo at even a large minus-700 favorite a reasonable price for what should be just as much of a rout as the odds indicate.
Insider value pick: <OFFER>Stay away</OFFER>
<CENTER>[h=3]Lyoto Machida (minus-360) versus Phil Davis (plus-300)[/h]</CENTER>
Though both Machida and Davis are among the most talented fighters in the light heavyweight division, both have the tendency to play it safe when it comes to risk-taking. And while this matchup might be one of the best the division has to offer, it easily could be a three-round stalemate in which neither fighter accomplishes much. And given both fighters' propensity to play it safe, the odds falling extremely in favor of Machida seem a bit off.
When breaking down the statistics, it appears that Machida is a perfect counterpoint to Davis' strengths, and vice versa. While Machida is known for his striking accuracy, landing a solid 57 percent of his attempts (seventh in MMA history), Davis actually possesses some of best striking defense in MMA (fourth in MMA history), successfully defending a very high 74.2 percent of opponent attempts. And while Davis might have one of the best striking defenses in the sport, it comes as a result of his wrestling prowess as opposed to his striking ability, as he lands a high 2.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. Against Machida, however, he'll have a harder time getting his opponent to the ground, as Machida successfully defends 79 percent of takedowns attempted against him.
Machida's stand-up game presents the biggest threat to Davis, as he has utilized it to win seven fights by knockout. But with Davis having never been finished in his career, and possessing a solid striking defense, the chances of this being his first knockout are lower than with most of Machida's opponents.
In Davis' favor, however, is the fact that he is seven years younger than the 35-year-old Machida and holds a five-inch reach advantage, which he can use to maintain his distance against the elusive striker. And with both fighters going to decision often, in more than half of their career fights, a few successful takedowns by Davis, while both play it safe, could make all the difference on the judges' scorecards. Thus, consider Davis as a sizeable plus-300 underdog a great value for what should be a closer fight than what most think.
Insider value pick: Davis
<CENTER>[h=3]Vinny Magalhaes (minus-340) versus Anthony Perosh (plus-280)[/h]</CENTER>
With the exception of legend Randy Couture, it's not often that you see fighters having success into their 40s. And with Perosh, 40, taking on 29-year-old Vinny Magalhaes, that trend shouldn't change any time soon as he'll have more than his hands full with the talented grappler.
Perhaps Perosh's biggest strength is his submission ability, having gained nine out of his 13 career victories in this manner and averaging 1.37 submissions per 15 minutes. Against Magalhaes, however, this strength will be somewhat obsolete as he faces a much more talented and well-rounded Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. With Magalhaes having won a division in the Abu Dhabi Combat Club championships, most notably defeating Fabricio Werdum to do so, he'll surely have nothing to fear against Perosh, especially since Magalhaes has never been submitted in his career. And while Perosh also has never been submitted before, Magalhaes hasn't fallen victim to the knockout nearly as much as Perosh has. With his last KO/TKO loss coming at the hands of Ryan Bader in 2008, Magalhaes has since gone on a 9-3 run, his losses only coming by decision. Perosh, on the other hand, has fallen victim to KO/TKO five times in his career, most recently to Ryan Jimmo, against whom he only lasted seven seconds into the first round. While Magalhaes isn't necessarily a knockout artist, with just two career KO/TKO victories, he does possess a cautious striking strategy, successfully defending a high 69 percent of opponent attempts. And given that he possesses double the takedown accuracy of Perosh, successfully landing 44 percent of his attempts compared Perosh's 22 percent, he should be able to do enough in the ground game to safely appear to the judges like the definitive victor in this one.
And with the potential to also catch Perosh by KO/TKO, the younger Magalhaes should have what it takes to dominate this fight as he continues to improve, making him a good value at just minus-340.
Insider value pick: Magalhaes
<CENTER>[h=3]Ian McCall (minus-410) versus Iliarde Santos (plus-290)[/h]</CENTER>
After close back-to-back decision losses to current UFC champion Demetrious Johnson and the other to former WEC champion Joseph Benavidez, McCall gets a chance to climb back to the top of the division when he takes on a much inferior fighter in Santos. Given how statistics often underrate McCall, his ability should make for a much more dominant fight than the odds would indicate.
Though not much is known about Santos outside of his one KO/TKO loss to Yuri Alcantara, much is known about the ability of McCall to put up very efficient numbers. With Iliarde averaging just 1.19 SLpM in his one UFC fight, McCall maintains a very high 3.25 SLpM while avoiding 64 percent of opponent strikes. Not only does McCall possess above-average striking skills, but he is also well rounded in the ground game, landing 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. Therefore, he can likely win the fight on both his feet and on the ground depending on whichever he finds necessary. And as far as defense is concerned, there isn't much of a chance that McCall will be in much danger, as he holds a very high 83 percent takedown defense, and has never been knocked out in his career. With his one non-decision loss coming by submission, staying off of his back against Iliarde -- who unsuccessfully failed to land any of his takedown attempts in his previous fight -- should keep McCall immune to another submission loss. Add to this McCall's ability to close out fights by KO/TKO, having gained four victories in the past in this manner, and delivering Santos his second UFC loss in this manner isn't improbable, either.
Thus, with multiple ways to win the fight, and given that McCall rarely finds himself in much danger, consider him much more than a minus-410 favorite against the overmatched Santos.
Insider value pick: McCall
