[h=1]NFL's most irreplaceable players[/h][h=3]Top 5 toughest players to replace at the offensive skill positions[/h]By Rivers McCown | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
We've already seen a few big-name players such as Jeremy Maclin and Dennis Pitta get struck down early in training camp with season-ending injuries. Most NFL teams have the depth to overcome similar losses, even to quality starters. So while the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens will have to make some adjustments to their respective offenses, they shouldn't be dealt too much of a setback.
There are, however, some players who are truly impossible to replace. Which offensive superstars are backed up by a mixture of the weak and the unproven?
For each of the offensive skill positions, we went through and looked at the five most irreplaceable players in the NFL -- based not just on the quality of the player, but the quality of his backups. Yes, most backups will change the game plan of their teams -- especially at quarterback -- but it does matter if a team has a competent backup like Shaun Hill as opposed to your local neighborhood McCown brother or undrafted rookie free agent.
[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Graham Harrell (an undrafted free agent) and B.J. Coleman (seventh-round pick) are the backups. They have a combined four regular-season pass attempts and both have been iffy in the preseason. Ted Thompson deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to young players, and maybe the Packers would be finished even if they had a reliable backup quarterback. But if Rodgers does go down, this team is sunk. It's hard enough to imagine Green Bay competently executing its passing attack with a backup quarterback, but throw in the quality of their offensive line and Rodgers' ability to buy time in the pocket, and the situation could get ugly.
2. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
The Saints let Chase Daniel leave for Kansas City in free agency, and his replacement as backup quarterback is none other than Luke McCown. In case you aren't up-to-date on your Luke McCown history, the Jaguars made the mistake of believing he could bridge the gap in 2011 while rookie Blaine Gabbert learned on the bench; McCown was so bad that he didn't even make it to midseason. Even after Gabbert proved utterly unready for the NFL, the Jaguars stuck with him rather than go back to McCown. Now try and picture the Saints offense led by that.
3. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
For all intents and purposes, when you hand over the keys to Peyton Manning, you cease to have an offensive identity of your own and instead just run the Peyton Manning Offense. The Peyton Manning Offense, a defense-crushing machine since 1999, relies on Manning's pre-snap reads and ability to create and perfect timing with his receivers. Football Outsiders was not high on second-string quarterback Brock Osweiler coming out of Arizona State, although his draft position indicates that he deserves some benefit of the doubt. Still, Osweiler would change the entire offensive culture in Denver, and that's not easy to do on the fly.
4. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Newton's sophomore slump was overblown as a full-season trend -- he had a higher DVOA in 2012 than he did in 2011. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average metric, explained here.) Flipping to Derek Anderson would remove all the read-option elements of the Carolina offense and change the offensive game plan to a series of long incompletions in the general vicinity of Steve Smith. Remember the 2010 Panthers? Yeah, that's what happens if Newton goes down.
5. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
Like the Panthers, the 49ers would have to completely shift the direction of their offense. Unlike the Panthers, the change under Colt McCoy would likely lead San Francisco to a West Coast underneath passing game. Without Michael Crabtree, making that work successfully would be a challenge. Not that we doubt Jim Harbaugh's ability to make it happen; it just wouldn't be optimal at all.
Honorable mentions: Tom Brady would obviously be a huge loss, though Ryan Mallett has a reasonable amount of backup experience and has the potential for a 2008 Matt Cassel-caliber season. The game plan for the Ravens if they had to shift from Joe Flacco to Tyrod Taylor would be incredibly different, as would the plan if Matt Ryan went down and the Falcons had to go with Dominique Davis.
ESPN INSIDER
We've already seen a few big-name players such as Jeremy Maclin and Dennis Pitta get struck down early in training camp with season-ending injuries. Most NFL teams have the depth to overcome similar losses, even to quality starters. So while the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens will have to make some adjustments to their respective offenses, they shouldn't be dealt too much of a setback.
There are, however, some players who are truly impossible to replace. Which offensive superstars are backed up by a mixture of the weak and the unproven?
For each of the offensive skill positions, we went through and looked at the five most irreplaceable players in the NFL -- based not just on the quality of the player, but the quality of his backups. Yes, most backups will change the game plan of their teams -- especially at quarterback -- but it does matter if a team has a competent backup like Shaun Hill as opposed to your local neighborhood McCown brother or undrafted rookie free agent.
[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Graham Harrell (an undrafted free agent) and B.J. Coleman (seventh-round pick) are the backups. They have a combined four regular-season pass attempts and both have been iffy in the preseason. Ted Thompson deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to young players, and maybe the Packers would be finished even if they had a reliable backup quarterback. But if Rodgers does go down, this team is sunk. It's hard enough to imagine Green Bay competently executing its passing attack with a backup quarterback, but throw in the quality of their offensive line and Rodgers' ability to buy time in the pocket, and the situation could get ugly.
2. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
The Saints let Chase Daniel leave for Kansas City in free agency, and his replacement as backup quarterback is none other than Luke McCown. In case you aren't up-to-date on your Luke McCown history, the Jaguars made the mistake of believing he could bridge the gap in 2011 while rookie Blaine Gabbert learned on the bench; McCown was so bad that he didn't even make it to midseason. Even after Gabbert proved utterly unready for the NFL, the Jaguars stuck with him rather than go back to McCown. Now try and picture the Saints offense led by that.
3. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
For all intents and purposes, when you hand over the keys to Peyton Manning, you cease to have an offensive identity of your own and instead just run the Peyton Manning Offense. The Peyton Manning Offense, a defense-crushing machine since 1999, relies on Manning's pre-snap reads and ability to create and perfect timing with his receivers. Football Outsiders was not high on second-string quarterback Brock Osweiler coming out of Arizona State, although his draft position indicates that he deserves some benefit of the doubt. Still, Osweiler would change the entire offensive culture in Denver, and that's not easy to do on the fly.
4. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Newton's sophomore slump was overblown as a full-season trend -- he had a higher DVOA in 2012 than he did in 2011. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average metric, explained here.) Flipping to Derek Anderson would remove all the read-option elements of the Carolina offense and change the offensive game plan to a series of long incompletions in the general vicinity of Steve Smith. Remember the 2010 Panthers? Yeah, that's what happens if Newton goes down.
5. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
Like the Panthers, the 49ers would have to completely shift the direction of their offense. Unlike the Panthers, the change under Colt McCoy would likely lead San Francisco to a West Coast underneath passing game. Without Michael Crabtree, making that work successfully would be a challenge. Not that we doubt Jim Harbaugh's ability to make it happen; it just wouldn't be optimal at all.
Honorable mentions: Tom Brady would obviously be a huge loss, though Ryan Mallett has a reasonable amount of backup experience and has the potential for a 2008 Matt Cassel-caliber season. The game plan for the Ravens if they had to shift from Joe Flacco to Tyrod Taylor would be incredibly different, as would the plan if Matt Ryan went down and the Falcons had to go with Dominique Davis.
RUNNING BACKS
1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
In this case, it isn't really even about the backup. Toby Gerhart has some supplementary skills to bring to the table. Gerhart has a decent pedigree as a former second-round pick, he's a good receiver out of the backfield and he can block well enough. But he isn't Adrian Peterson.
2. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Having a good running attack is an integral part of the Buccaneers' offense. As Mike Tanier pointed out last week, "Good Josh Freeman" appeared far more often when Martin was effective. When the primary backup was Mike Smith, who had an excellent speed score coming out of Miami, we weren't so worried. If it winds up being the newly signed Peyton Hillis, who hasn't been an effective rusher since 2010 and finished with a minus-27.5 percent DVOA last season, losing Martin would be a devastating blow.
3. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
Knile Davis was our top prospect in the 2013 class by speed score, but the way he ran in his senior season had many draftniks skeptical of his actual ability on the field instead of in drills. The Chiefs have some other reasonable depth pieces behind Charles in Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray, but Charles should be the linchpin of this offense going forward. He does have the current NFL yards-per-carry record for a reason, you know.
4. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
Yes, we know McFadden was horrible last season in Greg Knapp's zone scheme -- he finished dead last in our DVOA rankings among all qualified backs -- but there's also no doubt that he's a sensational straight-line talent who is Oakland's best weapon. Mike Goodson's defection to the Jets means that scrap heap pickup Rashad Jennings is second in the pecking order. Unfortunately for the Raiders, McFadden actually does get hurt every year, which is going to put even more pressure on an offense that wasn't good to begin with.
5. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Without Jones-Drew to carry the load last year, the Jaguars went from a one-dimension offense to a zero-dimension offense. Jaguars coaches can talk up Denard Robinson's ability to be an offensive weapon all they want -- there's a reason he was available in the fifth round of the draft. Justin Forsett is a capable depth back, but he's not someone who can eat into the carries of a healthy Jones-Drew.
Honorable mentions: Trent Richardson hasn't fulfilled his potential quite yet, and Montario Hardesty improved from the worst running back in the NFL to a below-average depth back in 2013, but it's clear that the Browns are relying on Richardson. DeMarco Murray isn't anyone's idea of a dominant running back, but the depth options behind him in Dallas are real stretches as starters.
[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
1. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
Johnson did some crazy things last year, as you might have noticed when he broke the receiving yardage record. What you might not have known is that the Lions were forced to throw him the ball down the stretch after losing Titus Young, Ryan Broyles and Nate Burleson. Johnson averaged 11.6 targets per game through the first 12 weeks of the season, then 16 targets through the last five as he played next to the likes of Kris Durham and Mike Thomas. Johnson's DVOA barely changed; without him the Lions would be completely lost.
2. Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears
Marshall was targeted on 40.5 percent of Bears passes last season, the highest percentage of a team's passes being thrown to one receiver we have recorded since 1991. The weapons in Chicago have a little more bust-out potential than they do in Detroit, and the Bears did add Martellus Bennett, but if Marshall isn't around to soak up the targets that Chicago needs out of him, the Bears are in trouble.
3. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
Fully healthy after a couple of seasons during which he lost time to injuries, Johnson posted 1,598 yards and 112 receptions to finish second in DYAR last season. The rest of the Houston depth chart, even if you assume DeAndre Hopkins is ready to play and contribute right away, is a mess. DeVier Posey will likely begin the year on PUP, and Lestar Jean and Keshawn Martin showed nothing in their limited samples last season. Johnson is the reason the Texans have a passing game -- if he goes down, they'll be forced to go much more run-heavy.
4. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
Smith led the league in percentage of his team's passing yards last season. It was the third time since 2003 he has led the league in that category, and the eighth time he has made the top 10. In the decade-plus since Smith joined the team in 2001, only 10 other Panthers have caught 100 total passes -- and only three of them have played wideout. Brandon LaFell is an interesting deep receiver, but after another offseason passed with no additions to the receiver depth chart, it's clear that Smith will be heavily relied upon again.
5. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs
A lot of the argument for keeping Bowe in Kansas City didn't necessarily revolve around his particular skill set -- he makes some drops that someone of his skill shouldn't and isn't really a top-flight wideout -- but around the fact that the Chiefs wideouts were completely hapless without him. Jon Baldwin has been a complete bust since being picked in the first round in 2011, and the rest of the depth chart was so lacking that Kansas City added Donnie Avery, the very definition of roster filler, to compete for a starting job. Unless this is finally the year that the Dexter McCluster bandwagon leaves the station, the Chiefs are going to need Bowe to do work downfield. Nobody else on the roster can.
Honorable mentions: A.J. Green is obviously one of the most talented receivers in the game, but with Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard joining Cincinnati, the Bengals could build an adequate offense without him. Dez Bryant is about a year away from joining this list -- and that year could come from him, or from another middling season by Miles Austin. Reggie Wayne is Andrew Luck's only receiver of real note in Indy … so far.
[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
The facts are as follows: The Patriots managed just fine without Aaron Hernandez in 2012, posting a 24.2 percent DVOA with Hernandez and a 39.4 percent DVOA without him. Without Gronkowski, their DVOA dropped from 34.7 percent to 22.3 percent. Now, with Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd gone, and Hernandez indicted, the health of Gronkowski's back is more important than ever to a Patriots offense that is suddenly trying to find reliable targets rather than dominate the league.
2. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons
There are two types of tight ends in Atlanta: Tony Gonzalez, and Generic Blocker B (as played by Michael Palmer and, now, rookie Levine Toilolo). Knocking out Gonzalez wouldn't be a death blow to the Atlanta offense, but because Harry Douglas hasn't really developed like the Falcons have hoped, it would mean shifting Julio Jones and Roddy White into some shorter route combinations.
3. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
With Michael Crabtree on the PUP list, the 49ers' most talented threat is now their tight end. In case you went into a cave during the playoffs, Davis seemed to enjoy working with Kaepernick a lot more than he enjoyed working with Alex Smith. The 49ers would be very limited downfield if Davis joined Crabtree on the sideline.
4. Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints
In many ways, you saw what the Saints looked like without Graham last season. Suffering through an injured wrist, Graham wasn't the same player as he was in 2011, and his league-leading 14 drops were a big reason why New Orleans fell to 7-9, but he still had 982 yards and 11 touchdowns.
5. Fred Davis, Washington Redskins
Some may see this as a stretch, but Davis was excellent in 2011 and was set up to have a very successful year in 2012 before suffering an Achilles tendon injury after Week 7. Logan Paulsen was effective on a per-play basis, but he's not the kind of receiver that can dictate coverage or be a matchup problem. Davis can do those things, and he's poised to receive a big paycheck boost next year as long as he can stay healthy.
Honorable mentions: Jason Witten is still incredibly consistent, but with Gavin Escobar drafted in the second round, the Cowboys could probably fuse something together without him. Jermichael Finley, when he's on (like he was over the last six weeks of the 2012 regular season) would be very hard for Green Bay to replace, but he's so inconsistent that it's hard to put him on this list right now.
1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
In this case, it isn't really even about the backup. Toby Gerhart has some supplementary skills to bring to the table. Gerhart has a decent pedigree as a former second-round pick, he's a good receiver out of the backfield and he can block well enough. But he isn't Adrian Peterson.
2. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Having a good running attack is an integral part of the Buccaneers' offense. As Mike Tanier pointed out last week, "Good Josh Freeman" appeared far more often when Martin was effective. When the primary backup was Mike Smith, who had an excellent speed score coming out of Miami, we weren't so worried. If it winds up being the newly signed Peyton Hillis, who hasn't been an effective rusher since 2010 and finished with a minus-27.5 percent DVOA last season, losing Martin would be a devastating blow.
3. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
Knile Davis was our top prospect in the 2013 class by speed score, but the way he ran in his senior season had many draftniks skeptical of his actual ability on the field instead of in drills. The Chiefs have some other reasonable depth pieces behind Charles in Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray, but Charles should be the linchpin of this offense going forward. He does have the current NFL yards-per-carry record for a reason, you know.
4. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
Yes, we know McFadden was horrible last season in Greg Knapp's zone scheme -- he finished dead last in our DVOA rankings among all qualified backs -- but there's also no doubt that he's a sensational straight-line talent who is Oakland's best weapon. Mike Goodson's defection to the Jets means that scrap heap pickup Rashad Jennings is second in the pecking order. Unfortunately for the Raiders, McFadden actually does get hurt every year, which is going to put even more pressure on an offense that wasn't good to begin with.
5. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Without Jones-Drew to carry the load last year, the Jaguars went from a one-dimension offense to a zero-dimension offense. Jaguars coaches can talk up Denard Robinson's ability to be an offensive weapon all they want -- there's a reason he was available in the fifth round of the draft. Justin Forsett is a capable depth back, but he's not someone who can eat into the carries of a healthy Jones-Drew.
Honorable mentions: Trent Richardson hasn't fulfilled his potential quite yet, and Montario Hardesty improved from the worst running back in the NFL to a below-average depth back in 2013, but it's clear that the Browns are relying on Richardson. DeMarco Murray isn't anyone's idea of a dominant running back, but the depth options behind him in Dallas are real stretches as starters.
[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
1. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
Johnson did some crazy things last year, as you might have noticed when he broke the receiving yardage record. What you might not have known is that the Lions were forced to throw him the ball down the stretch after losing Titus Young, Ryan Broyles and Nate Burleson. Johnson averaged 11.6 targets per game through the first 12 weeks of the season, then 16 targets through the last five as he played next to the likes of Kris Durham and Mike Thomas. Johnson's DVOA barely changed; without him the Lions would be completely lost.
2. Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears
Marshall was targeted on 40.5 percent of Bears passes last season, the highest percentage of a team's passes being thrown to one receiver we have recorded since 1991. The weapons in Chicago have a little more bust-out potential than they do in Detroit, and the Bears did add Martellus Bennett, but if Marshall isn't around to soak up the targets that Chicago needs out of him, the Bears are in trouble.
3. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
Fully healthy after a couple of seasons during which he lost time to injuries, Johnson posted 1,598 yards and 112 receptions to finish second in DYAR last season. The rest of the Houston depth chart, even if you assume DeAndre Hopkins is ready to play and contribute right away, is a mess. DeVier Posey will likely begin the year on PUP, and Lestar Jean and Keshawn Martin showed nothing in their limited samples last season. Johnson is the reason the Texans have a passing game -- if he goes down, they'll be forced to go much more run-heavy.
4. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
Smith led the league in percentage of his team's passing yards last season. It was the third time since 2003 he has led the league in that category, and the eighth time he has made the top 10. In the decade-plus since Smith joined the team in 2001, only 10 other Panthers have caught 100 total passes -- and only three of them have played wideout. Brandon LaFell is an interesting deep receiver, but after another offseason passed with no additions to the receiver depth chart, it's clear that Smith will be heavily relied upon again.
5. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs
A lot of the argument for keeping Bowe in Kansas City didn't necessarily revolve around his particular skill set -- he makes some drops that someone of his skill shouldn't and isn't really a top-flight wideout -- but around the fact that the Chiefs wideouts were completely hapless without him. Jon Baldwin has been a complete bust since being picked in the first round in 2011, and the rest of the depth chart was so lacking that Kansas City added Donnie Avery, the very definition of roster filler, to compete for a starting job. Unless this is finally the year that the Dexter McCluster bandwagon leaves the station, the Chiefs are going to need Bowe to do work downfield. Nobody else on the roster can.
Honorable mentions: A.J. Green is obviously one of the most talented receivers in the game, but with Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard joining Cincinnati, the Bengals could build an adequate offense without him. Dez Bryant is about a year away from joining this list -- and that year could come from him, or from another middling season by Miles Austin. Reggie Wayne is Andrew Luck's only receiver of real note in Indy … so far.
[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
The facts are as follows: The Patriots managed just fine without Aaron Hernandez in 2012, posting a 24.2 percent DVOA with Hernandez and a 39.4 percent DVOA without him. Without Gronkowski, their DVOA dropped from 34.7 percent to 22.3 percent. Now, with Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd gone, and Hernandez indicted, the health of Gronkowski's back is more important than ever to a Patriots offense that is suddenly trying to find reliable targets rather than dominate the league.
2. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons
There are two types of tight ends in Atlanta: Tony Gonzalez, and Generic Blocker B (as played by Michael Palmer and, now, rookie Levine Toilolo). Knocking out Gonzalez wouldn't be a death blow to the Atlanta offense, but because Harry Douglas hasn't really developed like the Falcons have hoped, it would mean shifting Julio Jones and Roddy White into some shorter route combinations.
3. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
With Michael Crabtree on the PUP list, the 49ers' most talented threat is now their tight end. In case you went into a cave during the playoffs, Davis seemed to enjoy working with Kaepernick a lot more than he enjoyed working with Alex Smith. The 49ers would be very limited downfield if Davis joined Crabtree on the sideline.
4. Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints
In many ways, you saw what the Saints looked like without Graham last season. Suffering through an injured wrist, Graham wasn't the same player as he was in 2011, and his league-leading 14 drops were a big reason why New Orleans fell to 7-9, but he still had 982 yards and 11 touchdowns.
5. Fred Davis, Washington Redskins
Some may see this as a stretch, but Davis was excellent in 2011 and was set up to have a very successful year in 2012 before suffering an Achilles tendon injury after Week 7. Logan Paulsen was effective on a per-play basis, but he's not the kind of receiver that can dictate coverage or be a matchup problem. Davis can do those things, and he's poised to receive a big paycheck boost next year as long as he can stay healthy.
Honorable mentions: Jason Witten is still incredibly consistent, but with Gavin Escobar drafted in the second round, the Cowboys could probably fuse something together without him. Jermichael Finley, when he's on (like he was over the last six weeks of the 2012 regular season) would be very hard for Green Bay to replace, but he's so inconsistent that it's hard to put him on this list right now.
