Top 10 undervalued fantasy QBs
Rush for RBs is pushing some signal-callers too far down draft board
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
The combination of a very thin running back pool and a ton of quality depth at the quarterback, wide receiver and tight end positions is impacting the relative draft-day values of those positions. And it's leaving a lot of bargains on the board.
This first part of a four-part series aims to help fantasy owners in this arena by identifying 10 quarterbacks who fall into this undervalued category. These players are falling lower in drafts (as determined by ESPN.com's average draft position) than they should based on my own value analysis. If you see these players below slipping in drafts, you'll know it's time to pounce.
Here are the top 10 undervalued fantasy quarterbacks.
1. Robert Griffin III
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 49.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 8
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 4
Griffin may have been the best downfield passer in the NFL last year. His 15.1 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA, a measure of productivity on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) ranked first in the league and his 16.4 stretch vertical YPA (SVYPA, a productivity gauge for aerials thrown 20 or more yards) ranked second. His 826 rushing yards were tops among quarterbacks and placed 20th among all ball carriers. Griffin also posted an amazingly low 1.2 percent bad decision rate (BDR, which measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the defense), which would be impressive for any passer but is doubly so for a rookie quarterback. All of this adds up to top-five caliber fantasy quarterback potential.
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The injury issue is the only thing holding back Griffin's value, but consider this: Even if a fantasy owner takes Griffin in Round 4, the depth at this position is such that bet can be hedged with a low-cost, starting-caliber quarterback in Round 9 or later. It might mean having to wait until a few weeks into the season to get Griffin's best production, but didn't Adrian Peterson teach the fantasy football world a lesson in the value of waiting for elite production last year?
2. Tony Romo
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 78.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 12
TFS Positional rank: No. 7
Romo was only 33 points away from finishing among the top-five fantasy quarterbacks in 2012 and a recent TFS ESPN Insider article offered five areas that could easily combine to make up for or surpass that point difference in 2013.
Tops on that list was taking full advantage of Dez Bryant 's favorable matchups, as Bryant torched weaker CBs to the tune of 12.1 YPA and six TDs last year. Because Bryant and Miles Austin both have extremely favorable schedules this year, it should give Romo a multitude of chances to hit the long pass. When that is added to many other positive factors, it gives Romo top-five caliber potential for what amounts to an eighth-round pick.
3. Carson Palmer
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 135.4
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 21
TFS Positional rank: No. 16
What does this guy have to do to get some respect among the fantasy football crowd? All he did last year was finish 18th in fantasy points despite being stuck on a mediocre Oakland offense and playing in less than 15 minutes of the last two games of the season. He had eight games with 16 or more points, which is a per-game pace roughly equal to that of Russell Wilson. Palmer was one of only 10 quarterbacks to post a YPA of 7.0 or higher combined with a BDR of 2.0 percent or lower and now joins Bruce Arians' vertically-oriented passing game -- with Larry Fitzgerald as a top receiving target. The Cardinals offensive line is certainly a question mark but it shouldn't be enough to move Palmer down to QB3 status.
4. Josh Freeman
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 135.8
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: 23
TFS Positional rank: 15
There are very few quarterbacks who have as much offensive talent around them as Freeman has in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have one of the best wideouts in the NFL (Vincent Jackson), an above-average WR2 (Mike Williams) and a dominant running back (Doug Martin). With the return of Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph from injuries, Tampa Bay should also have one of the strongest offensive lines.
This elite personnel helped Freeman to post a top-10 mark in SVYPA (13.7, tied for 10th) and land just outside of the top 10 in VYPA (11.6, ranked 12th). Freeman had just as many vertical touchdown passes as Matt Ryan (15) and his 12 short pass touchdowns were one short of placing in the top 10. Those scoring tosses helped him to rank 13th in fantasy quarterback points last year and should make him a strong QB2 again in 2013.
5. Alex Smith
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 138.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 24
TFS Positional rank: No. 17
What part of Smith's metrics say game manager? He ranked fourth in overall YPA (7.9), third in VYPA (13.3) and third in SVYPA (15.9) despite having only one top-flight wide receiver (Michael Crabtree) to throw passes to. It's not as though this was a one-year anomaly for Smith, as a 2010 TFS ESPN Insider article illustrated how his metrics had long been on the precipice of elite status. Smith combined this productivity level with a very good BDR (1.8 percent, tied for eighth), so interceptions shouldn't be a problem.
Now he gets to use those skills in a pass-first Andy Reid offense with Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles. Smith should be drafted higher than a midrange QB3.
6. Ryan Tannehill
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 138.6
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 25
TFS Positional rank: No. 19
Tannehill showed some stretch vertical passing chops last year by posting a 14.2 SVYPA on 54 attempts. That ranked ninth in league and was better than the SVYPA marks posted by Matt Ryan (13.7 on 60 attempts), Aaron Rodgers (12.9 on 67 attempts) and Romo (12.4 on 69 attempts).
If Tannehill could post a top-10 SVYPA with the Dolphins' 2012 receiving corps, it isn't hard to imagine a gargantuan upside now that Miami has the pass-catching services of Mike Wallace. It was only a couple of years ago that Wallace had a 22-game stretch where he outplayed Calvin Johnson in nearly every metric area. Even if Wallace doesn't quite return to that level, he still makes the Dolphins downfield game even more dangerous than it was last year. It's quite possible Tannehill could double his touchdown total from last year (12) and vault into QB2 territory.
7. Brandon Weeden
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 170.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 30
TFS Positional rank: No. 26
Want an interesting comparison? Check out how Weeden's metrics from last season compared to Andy Dalton's.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Andy Dalton's 2012 route depth by metric
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<!-- end inline 1 --><!-- begin inline 2 -->Brandon Weeden's 2012 route depth by metric
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Weeden had a higher medium YPA, bomb YPA, VYPA and SVYPA. He had just as many vertical touchdown passes and nearly three times as many stretch vertical touchdown throws.
Now consider that Weeden did that in an offense that wasn't exactly tailored to go vertical. He will not be held back by those circumstances this year as the Rob Chudzinski-Norv Turner offense will encourage Weeden to throw the ball deep with great regularity. That could quickly close much of the fantasy point gap between Weeden and Dalton, and makes Weeden a very undervalued fantasy quarterback.
8. Matt Flynn
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 170.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 32
TFS Positional rank: No. 29
Flynn's signature performance against the Detroit Lions in Week 17 of the 2011 season was almost certainly an anomaly based on a perfect storm of positive factors, but he does bring some talent to the table. The Raiders receiving corps isn't close to Green Bay's when Flynn was under center there, but it is solid and should afford Flynn a reasonable chance for success. Because Flynn looks to be on track to win the starting job and, barring disaster, keep it for the entire season, he shouldn't be ranked behind quarterbacks who will likely be locked in positional battles all season long (Geno Smith and EJ Manuel).
9. Nick Foles
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 170.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 33
TFS Positional rank: No. 32
Last year Foles had a higher VYPA (11.1) than Joe Flacco (10.7), Ben Roethlisberger (10.6), Matthew Stafford (10.5) and Andrew Luck (10.4). His 1.8 percent BDR ranked tied for eighth and was appreciably better than Michael Vick's 3.0 percent BDR. Chip Kelly lives for the big play on offense, but his 2012 Oregon Ducks team also led the nation in turnover differential. If Vick can't get his high-risk passing under control, Foles could end up as the Eagles starter sooner rather than later. This means Foles should be getting just as much draft-day push as some other quarterbacks locked in preseason battles to be the starter.
10. Blaine Gabbert
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 170.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 37
TFS Positional rank: No. 31
Gabbert is the type of quarterback who will likely only have value in two-QB or very deep leagues, yet his current Live Draft positional rank says he is barely being considered for that role.
Here's the case why he should be: Gabbert had five double-digit games in his nine starts last year, including three where he scored 14 or more points. He has two quality receiving targets (Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon) and will now have Maurice Jones-Drew back to take some of the pressure off of the passing game. The Jaguars are committed to giving Gabbert every chance to succeed and thus justify his early draft pick status. He also cut his BDR in half from 2011 (3.7 percent) to 2012 (1.7 percent), so there is significant progress being made on some fronts.
Gabbert still has a lot to prove, but he shouldn't be stuck behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow in terms of fantasy ownership percentage.
Rush for RBs is pushing some signal-callers too far down draft board
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
The combination of a very thin running back pool and a ton of quality depth at the quarterback, wide receiver and tight end positions is impacting the relative draft-day values of those positions. And it's leaving a lot of bargains on the board.
This first part of a four-part series aims to help fantasy owners in this arena by identifying 10 quarterbacks who fall into this undervalued category. These players are falling lower in drafts (as determined by ESPN.com's average draft position) than they should based on my own value analysis. If you see these players below slipping in drafts, you'll know it's time to pounce.
Here are the top 10 undervalued fantasy quarterbacks.
1. Robert Griffin III
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 49.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 8
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 4
Griffin may have been the best downfield passer in the NFL last year. His 15.1 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA, a measure of productivity on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) ranked first in the league and his 16.4 stretch vertical YPA (SVYPA, a productivity gauge for aerials thrown 20 or more yards) ranked second. His 826 rushing yards were tops among quarterbacks and placed 20th among all ball carriers. Griffin also posted an amazingly low 1.2 percent bad decision rate (BDR, which measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the defense), which would be impressive for any passer but is doubly so for a rookie quarterback. All of this adds up to top-five caliber fantasy quarterback potential.
<OFFER>
The injury issue is the only thing holding back Griffin's value, but consider this: Even if a fantasy owner takes Griffin in Round 4, the depth at this position is such that bet can be hedged with a low-cost, starting-caliber quarterback in Round 9 or later. It might mean having to wait until a few weeks into the season to get Griffin's best production, but didn't Adrian Peterson teach the fantasy football world a lesson in the value of waiting for elite production last year?
2. Tony Romo
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 78.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 12
TFS Positional rank: No. 7
Romo was only 33 points away from finishing among the top-five fantasy quarterbacks in 2012 and a recent TFS ESPN Insider article offered five areas that could easily combine to make up for or surpass that point difference in 2013.
Tops on that list was taking full advantage of Dez Bryant 's favorable matchups, as Bryant torched weaker CBs to the tune of 12.1 YPA and six TDs last year. Because Bryant and Miles Austin both have extremely favorable schedules this year, it should give Romo a multitude of chances to hit the long pass. When that is added to many other positive factors, it gives Romo top-five caliber potential for what amounts to an eighth-round pick.
3. Carson Palmer
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 135.4
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 21
TFS Positional rank: No. 16
What does this guy have to do to get some respect among the fantasy football crowd? All he did last year was finish 18th in fantasy points despite being stuck on a mediocre Oakland offense and playing in less than 15 minutes of the last two games of the season. He had eight games with 16 or more points, which is a per-game pace roughly equal to that of Russell Wilson. Palmer was one of only 10 quarterbacks to post a YPA of 7.0 or higher combined with a BDR of 2.0 percent or lower and now joins Bruce Arians' vertically-oriented passing game -- with Larry Fitzgerald as a top receiving target. The Cardinals offensive line is certainly a question mark but it shouldn't be enough to move Palmer down to QB3 status.
4. Josh Freeman
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 135.8
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: 23
TFS Positional rank: 15
There are very few quarterbacks who have as much offensive talent around them as Freeman has in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have one of the best wideouts in the NFL (Vincent Jackson), an above-average WR2 (Mike Williams) and a dominant running back (Doug Martin). With the return of Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph from injuries, Tampa Bay should also have one of the strongest offensive lines.
This elite personnel helped Freeman to post a top-10 mark in SVYPA (13.7, tied for 10th) and land just outside of the top 10 in VYPA (11.6, ranked 12th). Freeman had just as many vertical touchdown passes as Matt Ryan (15) and his 12 short pass touchdowns were one short of placing in the top 10. Those scoring tosses helped him to rank 13th in fantasy quarterback points last year and should make him a strong QB2 again in 2013.
5. Alex Smith
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 138.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 24
TFS Positional rank: No. 17
What part of Smith's metrics say game manager? He ranked fourth in overall YPA (7.9), third in VYPA (13.3) and third in SVYPA (15.9) despite having only one top-flight wide receiver (Michael Crabtree) to throw passes to. It's not as though this was a one-year anomaly for Smith, as a 2010 TFS ESPN Insider article illustrated how his metrics had long been on the precipice of elite status. Smith combined this productivity level with a very good BDR (1.8 percent, tied for eighth), so interceptions shouldn't be a problem.
Now he gets to use those skills in a pass-first Andy Reid offense with Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles. Smith should be drafted higher than a midrange QB3.
6. Ryan Tannehill
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 138.6
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 25
TFS Positional rank: No. 19
Tannehill showed some stretch vertical passing chops last year by posting a 14.2 SVYPA on 54 attempts. That ranked ninth in league and was better than the SVYPA marks posted by Matt Ryan (13.7 on 60 attempts), Aaron Rodgers (12.9 on 67 attempts) and Romo (12.4 on 69 attempts).
If Tannehill could post a top-10 SVYPA with the Dolphins' 2012 receiving corps, it isn't hard to imagine a gargantuan upside now that Miami has the pass-catching services of Mike Wallace. It was only a couple of years ago that Wallace had a 22-game stretch where he outplayed Calvin Johnson in nearly every metric area. Even if Wallace doesn't quite return to that level, he still makes the Dolphins downfield game even more dangerous than it was last year. It's quite possible Tannehill could double his touchdown total from last year (12) and vault into QB2 territory.
7. Brandon Weeden
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 170.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 30
TFS Positional rank: No. 26
Want an interesting comparison? Check out how Weeden's metrics from last season compared to Andy Dalton's.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Andy Dalton's 2012 route depth by metric
| Depth Level | Att | Yards | YPA | TD | Int |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short (up to 10 yds) | 337 | 2196 | 6.5 | 16 | 4 |
| Medium (11-19 yds) | 94 | 939 | 10.0 | 8 | 5 |
| Deep (20-29 yds) | 38 | 258 | 6.8 | 1 | 2 |
| Bomb (30+ yds) | 28 | 344 | 12.3 | 2 | 1 |
| Other | 43 | 11 | 0.3 | 4 | |
| Vertical (M, D, B) | 160 | 1541 | 9.6 | 11 | 8 |
| Stretch vertical (D, B) | 66 | 602 | 9.1 | 3 | 3 |
| Overall total | 540 | 3748 | 6.9 | 27 | 16 |
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<!-- end inline 1 --><!-- begin inline 2 -->Brandon Weeden's 2012 route depth by metric
| Depth Level | Att | Yards | YPA | TD | Int |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short (up to 10 yds) | 326 | 1942 | 6.0 | 3 | 4 |
| Medium (11-19 yds) | 83 | 967 | 11.7 | 3 | 4 |
| Deep (20-29 yds) | 29 | 185 | 6.4 | 4 | 4 |
| Bomb (30+ yds) | 22 | 289 | 13.1 | 4 | 2 |
| Other | 65 | 4 | 0.1 | 3 | |
| Vertical (M, D, B) | 134 | 1441 | 10.8 | 11 | 10 |
| Stretch vertical (D, B) | 51 | 474 | 9.3 | 8 | 6 |
| Overall total | 525 | 3387 | 6.5 | 14 | 17 |
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Weeden had a higher medium YPA, bomb YPA, VYPA and SVYPA. He had just as many vertical touchdown passes and nearly three times as many stretch vertical touchdown throws.
Now consider that Weeden did that in an offense that wasn't exactly tailored to go vertical. He will not be held back by those circumstances this year as the Rob Chudzinski-Norv Turner offense will encourage Weeden to throw the ball deep with great regularity. That could quickly close much of the fantasy point gap between Weeden and Dalton, and makes Weeden a very undervalued fantasy quarterback.
8. Matt Flynn
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 170.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 32
TFS Positional rank: No. 29
Flynn's signature performance against the Detroit Lions in Week 17 of the 2011 season was almost certainly an anomaly based on a perfect storm of positive factors, but he does bring some talent to the table. The Raiders receiving corps isn't close to Green Bay's when Flynn was under center there, but it is solid and should afford Flynn a reasonable chance for success. Because Flynn looks to be on track to win the starting job and, barring disaster, keep it for the entire season, he shouldn't be ranked behind quarterbacks who will likely be locked in positional battles all season long (Geno Smith and EJ Manuel).
9. Nick Foles
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 170.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 33
TFS Positional rank: No. 32
Last year Foles had a higher VYPA (11.1) than Joe Flacco (10.7), Ben Roethlisberger (10.6), Matthew Stafford (10.5) and Andrew Luck (10.4). His 1.8 percent BDR ranked tied for eighth and was appreciably better than Michael Vick's 3.0 percent BDR. Chip Kelly lives for the big play on offense, but his 2012 Oregon Ducks team also led the nation in turnover differential. If Vick can't get his high-risk passing under control, Foles could end up as the Eagles starter sooner rather than later. This means Foles should be getting just as much draft-day push as some other quarterbacks locked in preseason battles to be the starter.
10. Blaine Gabbert
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 170.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 37
TFS Positional rank: No. 31
Gabbert is the type of quarterback who will likely only have value in two-QB or very deep leagues, yet his current Live Draft positional rank says he is barely being considered for that role.
Here's the case why he should be: Gabbert had five double-digit games in his nine starts last year, including three where he scored 14 or more points. He has two quality receiving targets (Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon) and will now have Maurice Jones-Drew back to take some of the pressure off of the passing game. The Jaguars are committed to giving Gabbert every chance to succeed and thus justify his early draft pick status. He also cut his BDR in half from 2011 (3.7 percent) to 2012 (1.7 percent), so there is significant progress being made on some fronts.
Gabbert still has a lot to prove, but he shouldn't be stuck behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow in terms of fantasy ownership percentage.
