| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +3.80 |
| Last 30 Days | 43 | 26 | 0.00 | +53.03 |
| Season to Date | 172 | 162 | 0.00 | +82.93 |
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</tbody>
ALL GAMES ARE FOR 2 UNITS
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago +106 over PHILADELPHIA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Phillies have dropped five in a row and 14 of their past 15 games. Philadelphia’s lone win over that span came against Barry Zito. They’ve had a difficult schedule over that stretch (Atlanta, San Fran, Detroit, St. Louis and the Mets) but 14 losses in 15 games takes a negative toll. The Phillies were in striking distance before the All-Star break but have fallen 17 games back of first place Atlanta after being swept by the Braves this past weekend. Team morale can’t be high coming into this series. Kyle Kendrick was having a fine year but his recent struggles should not be ignored. Over his last five starts covering 26 frames, Kendrick has just 12 K’s against seven walks. He also has an alarming 30% line-drive rate over that span along with a 7.36 xERA. Kendrick's skills lack the wow factor. His hot streak earlier in the year coincided with a favorable 25% hit rate and 81% strand rate. Those rates have since normalized and the result is a thin margin for error. Kendrick may offer up some value as a pooch but as the chalk pitching for a demoralized group, he offers none.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Edwin Jackson delivered in July on the profit potential we forecasted out of him over the last six weeks. Jackson posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 34 IP during July. The recipe was elite command and the third-highest groundball rate (60%) in the NL. Jackson has a history of strong finishes. He has an outstanding and almost scary 12% line-drive rate over his past 46 innings. He has walked just six batters over his past 34 frames. Jackson’s 4.65 ERA is a complete mirage. Up until late June, Jackson’s 38%/61% hit%/strand% split was the perfect storm of bad luck but he has reversed his fortunes and the results are an exceptional hidden skill set. Jackson has a great chance to thrive again here against a Philadelphia squad that is last in the majors with a .212 batting average over its past 15 games. [/FONT]
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N.Y. METS +100 over Colorado
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]T[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]he Rockies have just 21 road wins in 56 attempts this season. That is the 4th worst mark in MLB, ahead of only the Marlins, Brewers, Astros and White Sox. Over its past six road games, Colorado has scored 12 runs and overall it has dropped six of its last seven on the road. Tyler Chatwood is 7-4 with an impressive 3.15 ERA and while there are definite improvements in his profile, that include a 1.1 mph increase in his fastball to 93.6 mph, 3.5% jump in his swinging strike rate and an elite groundball rate, there are also warning signs that tell us to beware. First, Chatwood’s 3.15 ERA has been greatly aided by an unsustainable 80% strand rate. His 1.39 WHIP is not even at an acceptable level. Batters have hit .279 against him and when you combine everything together, that being a high strand rate, a high BAA and a high WHIP, it does not correlate to a low ERA. Chatwood has struck out four batters or fewer in nine of his past 10 starts and when he faced the Mets back on June 27, he whiffed just two batters in six frames. Let someone else purchase Chatwood’s ERA and W/L record while we step in and sell high. [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jenrry Mejia had TJS in May 2011 and battled forearm tendinitis this spring. He was shut down until mid-May and has been on a strengthening program since. Mejia was one of the most impressive starters in any MLB spring camp a few years ago. Mejia was at one time a top prospect, who may finally be ready to break through and provide the Mets will quality results. His raw ability is undeniable, as he has a mid-90s fastball with movement. In two starts back with the Mets, Mejia has 11 K’s in 13 innings while issuing just one walk. He also has an elite 63% groundball rate and an xERA of just 2.62. The Rockies offense ranks 27th in MLB on the road and most of these Rockies have never seen him. Four current Rockies have faced Mejia and they are a combined 0-7 in those AB’s. There is great profit potential in Mejia’s arm and there is no doubt that he and the Mets are wrongly priced here.[/FONT]
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Minnesota +168 over KANSAS CITY
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]James Shields is having another James Shields season. A model of consistency for years, Shields is once again posting relevant numbers that include a 3.08 ERA and 128 K’s in 155 innings. However, in 23 starts, Shields’ is just 6-7, meaning the Royals struggle to win when he takes the hill. There are also plenty of warning signs in his recent profile that suggest an implosion is forthcoming. Shields’ has pitched 205 innings or more in six straight years and he’s well on his way to another 200+ innings season. Last year he threw 228 frames and in ’12 he pitched 249 innings. Over his last five starts covering 32 frames, Shields has walked 12 and struck out 21. Whenever you see a declining K rate and increasing walk rate it’s a sure sign of fatigue. Over that recent five game stretch, Shields’ WHIP has sky-rocketed to 1.44 and his xERA over that span was 5.26. James Shields is a huge risk spotting a tag like the one offered here.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
If you’re a regular reader of this section then you were warned plenty of times about the poor skills of Scott Diamond. We’ve been suggesting for months that he won’t last the year in the Twins rotation and sure enough, that pigeon, as they say, has come home to roost. Scott Diamond is now in the minors where he belongs and that has opened up the door for Andrew Albers. Albers' first professional season was in 2008 with the Padres, where he started just five games before suffering an injury that would lead to Tommy John surgery. As a result, he missed all of 2009. After playing independent ball in 2010, the Twins signed Albers to a minor-league contract and the lefty now gets his chance to crack the Twins rotation. Albers is the prototypical Minnesota control and finesse pitcher. He has put up impressive numbers this year during his first Triple-A season and over his last four starts (28.1 IP) Albers has given up just four earned runs with 25/4 K/BB while throwing a complete game on July 26. He can eat up innings and pitch efficiently deep into games. Albers throws strikes with precision command and induces weak contact and lots of groundball outs. He also gets a surprising number of strikeouts considering the lack of overpowering stuff. His best pitch is an 87-91 mph sinker followed by a decent slider and improving change-up. Albers has to rely on pitch mix and pinpoint control to keep hitters off balance but he has learned to do it very effectively. At age 27, Albers has paid his dues. He has great potential because of his precision control with all of his off-speed stuff. Ask any major-league hitter if they would rather face a guy with a straight 98 MPH fastball or a guy with different speeds to all corners of the plate and you would get the same answer 100% of the time. Albers brings that deception along with pin-point command. At Triple-AAA Rochester this season, Albers struck out 116 batters while walking just 32 over 133 frames. He has a great chance to do well in his debut and at this price, he’s worth a wager.
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HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago +106 over PHILADELPHIA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Phillies have dropped five in a row and 14 of their past 15 games. Philadelphia’s lone win over that span came against Barry Zito. They’ve had a difficult schedule over that stretch (Atlanta, San Fran, Detroit, St. Louis and the Mets) but 14 losses in 15 games takes a negative toll. The Phillies were in striking distance before the All-Star break but have fallen 17 games back of first place Atlanta after being swept by the Braves this past weekend. Team morale can’t be high coming into this series. Kyle Kendrick was having a fine year but his recent struggles should not be ignored. Over his last five starts covering 26 frames, Kendrick has just 12 K’s against seven walks. He also has an alarming 30% line-drive rate over that span along with a 7.36 xERA. Kendrick's skills lack the wow factor. His hot streak earlier in the year coincided with a favorable 25% hit rate and 81% strand rate. Those rates have since normalized and the result is a thin margin for error. Kendrick may offer up some value as a pooch but as the chalk pitching for a demoralized group, he offers none.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Edwin Jackson delivered in July on the profit potential we forecasted out of him over the last six weeks. Jackson posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 34 IP during July. The recipe was elite command and the third-highest groundball rate (60%) in the NL. Jackson has a history of strong finishes. He has an outstanding and almost scary 12% line-drive rate over his past 46 innings. He has walked just six batters over his past 34 frames. Jackson’s 4.65 ERA is a complete mirage. Up until late June, Jackson’s 38%/61% hit%/strand% split was the perfect storm of bad luck but he has reversed his fortunes and the results are an exceptional hidden skill set. Jackson has a great chance to thrive again here against a Philadelphia squad that is last in the majors with a .212 batting average over its past 15 games. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
N.Y. METS +100 over Colorado
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]T[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]he Rockies have just 21 road wins in 56 attempts this season. That is the 4th worst mark in MLB, ahead of only the Marlins, Brewers, Astros and White Sox. Over its past six road games, Colorado has scored 12 runs and overall it has dropped six of its last seven on the road. Tyler Chatwood is 7-4 with an impressive 3.15 ERA and while there are definite improvements in his profile, that include a 1.1 mph increase in his fastball to 93.6 mph, 3.5% jump in his swinging strike rate and an elite groundball rate, there are also warning signs that tell us to beware. First, Chatwood’s 3.15 ERA has been greatly aided by an unsustainable 80% strand rate. His 1.39 WHIP is not even at an acceptable level. Batters have hit .279 against him and when you combine everything together, that being a high strand rate, a high BAA and a high WHIP, it does not correlate to a low ERA. Chatwood has struck out four batters or fewer in nine of his past 10 starts and when he faced the Mets back on June 27, he whiffed just two batters in six frames. Let someone else purchase Chatwood’s ERA and W/L record while we step in and sell high. [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jenrry Mejia had TJS in May 2011 and battled forearm tendinitis this spring. He was shut down until mid-May and has been on a strengthening program since. Mejia was one of the most impressive starters in any MLB spring camp a few years ago. Mejia was at one time a top prospect, who may finally be ready to break through and provide the Mets will quality results. His raw ability is undeniable, as he has a mid-90s fastball with movement. In two starts back with the Mets, Mejia has 11 K’s in 13 innings while issuing just one walk. He also has an elite 63% groundball rate and an xERA of just 2.62. The Rockies offense ranks 27th in MLB on the road and most of these Rockies have never seen him. Four current Rockies have faced Mejia and they are a combined 0-7 in those AB’s. There is great profit potential in Mejia’s arm and there is no doubt that he and the Mets are wrongly priced here.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
Minnesota +168 over KANSAS CITY
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]James Shields is having another James Shields season. A model of consistency for years, Shields is once again posting relevant numbers that include a 3.08 ERA and 128 K’s in 155 innings. However, in 23 starts, Shields’ is just 6-7, meaning the Royals struggle to win when he takes the hill. There are also plenty of warning signs in his recent profile that suggest an implosion is forthcoming. Shields’ has pitched 205 innings or more in six straight years and he’s well on his way to another 200+ innings season. Last year he threw 228 frames and in ’12 he pitched 249 innings. Over his last five starts covering 32 frames, Shields has walked 12 and struck out 21. Whenever you see a declining K rate and increasing walk rate it’s a sure sign of fatigue. Over that recent five game stretch, Shields’ WHIP has sky-rocketed to 1.44 and his xERA over that span was 5.26. James Shields is a huge risk spotting a tag like the one offered here.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
If you’re a regular reader of this section then you were warned plenty of times about the poor skills of Scott Diamond. We’ve been suggesting for months that he won’t last the year in the Twins rotation and sure enough, that pigeon, as they say, has come home to roost. Scott Diamond is now in the minors where he belongs and that has opened up the door for Andrew Albers. Albers' first professional season was in 2008 with the Padres, where he started just five games before suffering an injury that would lead to Tommy John surgery. As a result, he missed all of 2009. After playing independent ball in 2010, the Twins signed Albers to a minor-league contract and the lefty now gets his chance to crack the Twins rotation. Albers is the prototypical Minnesota control and finesse pitcher. He has put up impressive numbers this year during his first Triple-A season and over his last four starts (28.1 IP) Albers has given up just four earned runs with 25/4 K/BB while throwing a complete game on July 26. He can eat up innings and pitch efficiently deep into games. Albers throws strikes with precision command and induces weak contact and lots of groundball outs. He also gets a surprising number of strikeouts considering the lack of overpowering stuff. His best pitch is an 87-91 mph sinker followed by a decent slider and improving change-up. Albers has to rely on pitch mix and pinpoint control to keep hitters off balance but he has learned to do it very effectively. At age 27, Albers has paid his dues. He has great potential because of his precision control with all of his off-speed stuff. Ask any major-league hitter if they would rather face a guy with a straight 98 MPH fastball or a guy with different speeds to all corners of the plate and you would get the same answer 100% of the time. Albers brings that deception along with pin-point command. At Triple-AAA Rochester this season, Albers struck out 116 batters while walking just 32 over 133 frames. He has a great chance to do well in his debut and at this price, he’s worth a wager.
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