Service Plays Thursday 8/8/13

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PGA Championship: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

The PGA Championship will be contested from Oak Hill Country Club in Pittsford, New York beginning Thursday.

This is the first major for Oak Hill since the 2003 PGA Championship, when Shaun Micheel stunned the field and brought home the Wanamaker Trophy as the 169th-ranked player in the world. Because of the lack of experience here for a lot of the players, it evens out the fieldso there are not many advantages from a historic standpoint.

This is the third time the East Course at Oak Hill has hosted the PGA Championship. Of all the players that teed it up in 2003, 37 of those are back this year, which is roughly 24 percent of field that has seen the course under tournament conditions.

The East Course is a Par-70, 7,163-yard track designed by Donald Ross. It has gone through several modifications throughout the years but Ross' trademark small greens and course routing are still present.

It takes pride in its namesake, oak trees, which can cause trouble for errant tee shots. Making matters even worse, the fairways are less than 30 yards wide and the rough this week is long and dense, so missing the short grass will force a lot of layups as advancing the ball will not be an option in most places.

While the course itself is a challenge, parity remains constant in the majors. In the last 20 majors, there have been 18 different winners with Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson being the only two-time winners over that span. Since 1993, there have been 16 different winners of the PGA Championship with only Tiger Woods (4) and Vijay Singh (2) being repeat winners, which adds even more complications to the scenario. This tournament is known for its surprising winners.

The favorite this week is Tiger Woods (+350). He’s coming off his fourth victory of the season at the Bridgestone Invitational this past week, his eighth win at Firestone. Woods last won the PGA Championship in 2007, which was his fourth and his 13th major championship at the time. He played at Oak Hill in 2003 and it wasn't pretty, shooting 12-over which was good for T39.

The defending champion is Rory McIlroy (+2,500) who ran away with an eight-shot victory at Kiawah Island - The Ocean Course. He later won at the Deutsche Bank Championship and the next week at the BMW Championship, but he has not won since. An equipment change could be part of the problem but any way you look at it, something’s not right. He does not have a Top 25 in his last four starts.

Because of the short price on Tiger, we are catching great odds on others, including Matt Kuchar (+2,500). He has yet to win a major but he looks ready as ever. He has two wins on the season to go along with five other Top 10s including two runner-ups. He’s not missed a cut this season and in the first three majors, he has a T8 at the Masters, a T28 at the U.S. Open and a T15 at the Open Championship.

This week's long shot will be Graeme DeLaet (+15,000). If there is a major that can produce a long shot, this is the one. We have seen it before and we have seen it on this course. DeLaet disappointed us at the Canadian Open with a missed cut but his stats fit the bill here. He is first on tour in greens hit and first in total driving. His five Top 10s show he can contend.

Recommended tournament win six pack at the PGA Championship (all for one unit)

Matt Kuchar (+2,500)
Henrik Stenson (+2,500)
Luke Donald (+3,000)
Keegan Bradley (+3,000)
Graeme DeLaet (+15,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 30 events: -35.4 Units

PGA Championship betting odds, matchups and props

Check out the odds to win the PGA Championship as well as matchups and props for the final major tournament of the season, courtesy of the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas.

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
OAK HILL COUNTRY CLUB - ROCHESTER, NEW YORK
AUGUST 8-11, 2013

ODDS TO WIN:
TIGER WOODS 4/1
PHIL MICKELSON 15/1
ADAM SCOTT 15/1
JUSTIN ROSE 25/1
LEE WESTWOOD 25/1
RORY McILROY 30/1
JASON DAY 35/1
BRANDT SNEDEKER 25/1
SERGIO GARCIA 50/1
CHARL SCHWARTZEL 40/1
MATT KUCHAR 30/1
HUNTER MAHAN 30/1
LUKE DONALD 35/1
GRAEME McDOWELL 50/1
DUSTIN JOHNSON 30/1
STEVE STRICKER 40/1
KEEGAN BRADLEY 30/1
JASON DUFNER 35/1
BUBBA WATSON 50/1
RICKIE FOWLER 60/1
ERNIE ELS 80/1
IAN POULTER 50/1
HENRIK STENSON 30/1
WEBB SIMPSON 60/1
ANGEL CABRERA 80/1
ZACH JOHNSON 40/1
NICOLAS COLSAERTS 125/1
MARTIN KAYMER 50/1
BILL HAAS 50/1
JIM FURYK 60/1

*GOLFER MUST TEE OFF FOR ACTION*

TOURNAMENT MATCHUPS:

PHIL MICKELSON +180
TIGER WOODS -210

JUSTIN ROSE +120
ADAM SCOTT -140

RORY McILROY EVEN
LEE WESTWOOD -120

BRANDT SNEDEKER -110
HENRIK STENSON -110

MATT KUCHAR -110
HUNTER MAHAN -110

KEEGAN BRADLEY -120
JASON DUFNER EVEN

DUSTIN JOHNSON -110
CHARL SCHWARTZEL -110

JASON DAY -110
SERGIO GARCIA -110

BILL HAAS -110
ZACH JOHNSON -110

GRAEME McDOWELL EVEN
IAN POULTER -120

WEBB SIMPSON +105
BUBBA WATSON -125

ERNIE ELS +115
JIM FURYK -135

HIDEKI MATSUYAMA -110
JORDAN SPIETH -110

HARRIS ENGLISH -110
RYAN MOORE -110

MARTIN LAIRD -110
FRANCESCO MOLINARI -110

PROPOSITIONS:

Par = 70

WINNING SCORE:
(*72 holes must be completed for action)
OVER 274.5 -110
UNDER 274.5 -110

WILL THERE BE A HOLE IN ONE?
(*72 holes must be completed for action)
YES -135
NO +115

WILL THERE BE A PLAYOFF?
(*72 holes must be completed for action)
YES +270
NO -330

LOWEST COMPLETED ROUND SHOT BY ANY GOLFER:
(*Full round of 18 holes; 72 holes must be completed for action)
OVER 65.5 -110
UNDER 65.5 -110

WILL TIGER WOODS WIN THE 2013 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP?
(*Tiger Woods must tee off for action)
YES +400
NO -500

FINISH POSITION BY: TIGER WOODS
(*Must tee off for action; Includes ties; If golfer withdraws, is disqualified, or misses the cut, 'over' is the winner)
OVER 7.5 -110
UNDER 7.5 -110

FINISH POSITION BY: PHIL MICKELSON
(*Must tee off for action; Includes ties; If golfer withdraws, is disqualified, or misses the cut, 'over' is the winner)
OVER 19.5 -110
UNDER 19.5 -110

FINISH POSITION BY: ADAM SCOTT
(*Must tee off for action; Includes ties; If golfer withdraws, is disqualified, or misses the cut, 'over' is the winner)
OVER 17.5 -110
UNDER 17.5 -110

FINISH POSITION BY: JUSTIN ROSE
(*Must tee off for action; Includes ties; If golfer withdraws, is disqualified, or misses the cut, 'over' is the winner)
OVER 23.5 -110
UNDER 23.5 -110

FINISH POSITION BY: RORY McILROY
(*Must tee off for action; Includes ties; If golfer withdraws, is disqualified, or misses the cut, 'over' is the winner)
OVER 30.5 -110
UNDER 30.5 -110

FINISH POSITION BY: LEE WESTWOOD
(*Must tee off for action; Includes ties; If golfer withdraws, is disqualified, or misses the cut, 'over' is the winner)
OVER 28.5 -110
UNDER 28.5 -110

FINISH POSITION BY: BRANDT SNEDEKER
(*Must tee off for action; Includes ties; If golfer withdraws, is disqualified, or misses the cut, 'over' is the winner)
OVER 24.5 -110
UNDER 24.5 -110

WILL TIGER WOODS MAKE THE CUT?
(*Must tee off for action; cut decided after 36 holes)
YES -800
NO +600

WILL PHIL MICKELSON MAKE THE CUT?
(*Must tee off for action; cut decided after 36 holes)
YES -500
NO +400

WILL SERGIO GARCIA MAKE THE CUT?
(*Must tee off for action; cut decided after 36 holes)
YES -240
NO +200

WILL LUKE DONALD MAKE THE CUT?
(*Must tee off for action; cut decided after 36 holes)
YES -270
NO +230

WILL DUSTIN JOHNSON MAKE THE CUT?
(*Must tee off for action; cut decided after 36 holes)
YES -280
NO +240

WILL RICKIE FOWLER MAKE THE CUT?
(*Must tee off for action; cut decided after 36 holes)
YES -200
NO +175

WILL JORDAN SPIETH MAKE THE CUT?
(*Must tee off for action; cut decided after 36 holes)
YES -165
NO +145

WILL HIDEKI MATSUYAMA MAKE THE CUT?
(*Must tee off for action; cut decided after 36 holes)
YES -165
NO +145

Three best NFL preseason Week 1 bets since 1995

Betting on Week 1 of the NFL preseason is a bet on randomness. Teams may or may not play their starters. And if they do, it’s only for a few sets.

Second, third and even fourth-string players will decide your fate, so why not wager on teams that have shown some consistency in an otherwise chaotic stretch of schedule.

We look at the best Week 1 NFL preseason bets since 1995 and how those teams look heading into the 2013 exhibition calendar.

Denver Broncos (10-7 SU, 12-4-1 ATS in Week 1)

The Broncos have a laundry list of offseason issues and may be just trying to get through the preseason without adding to those troubles. Reports out of camp state Peyton Manning may see limited action this summer, with the offensive line missing some key cogs. Denver smoked Chicago 31-3 in last year’s preseason opener and is a 3-point underdog at San Francisco this Thursday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6 SU, 12-5 ATS in Week 1)

When you read headlines like “Bucs Just Hoping To Survive Preseason”, it doesn’t instill the greatest confidence in Tampa Bay bettors. The Buccaneers’ No. 1 priority is making sure everyone sees Week 1, which could mean plenty of play for third and fourth-string scrubs this summer. The Bucs beat Miami 20-7 as 3-point dogs in Week 1 last preseason and are 3-point home faves hosting Baltimore Thursday.

Seattle Seahawks (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS in Week 1)

Seattle has the same ATS mark in Week 1 as the Titans and Bengals, but we focus on the Seahawks because they seem to give a crap about winning the warm-ups. Last year, Seattle beat Tennessee 27-17 as a 3-point home favorite in Week 1, en route to a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS preseason. This time around, the Seahawks are plugging the hole at WR left by Percy Harvin’s injury. Sidney Rice is also nursing a bum knee, so the Seahawks' passing game could have its wings clipped this preseason. Seattle is a 2.5-point road favorite at San Diego Thursday.

Chicago Syndicate

XNFL
Tampa Bay Bucs -3

Three worst NFL preseason Week 1 bets since 1995

Losing an NFL preseason bet is like burning your hand in a fire. You knew it was hot, so why’d you touch it?

However, after a long summer stranded in baseball, preseason football is salt water to the shipwrecked sailor. You want to drink it up so bad.

If you’re thinking about getting in on the Week 1 preseason action, beware these three teams which have constantly fallen short of the spread during the opening slate of tune-up games. We eye their Week 1 records, going back as far as 1995, and how they look heading into this summer’s preseason:

Dallas Cowboys (5-12 SU, 4-13 ATS in Week 1)

Dallas didn’t look too bad in the Hall of Fame Game, despite all but four starters sitting out. The new 4-3 defensive scheme ran pretty smoothly for the first time around and the offense got a boost from the running game, which is a big plus. The Cowboys are 2-point favorites in Oakland for Week 1 of the preseason Friday. Quarterback Tony Romo is expected to play limited action as are the majority of Dallas’ first-stringers.

Philadelphia Eagles (6-10 SU, 4-10-2 ATS)

Former head coach Andy Reid was known for his lack of interest in the preseason and it shows in the Eagles’ Week 1 preseason mark. But now, with new coach Chip Kelly installing his up-tempo offense, Philadelphia may be putting a little more weight into its exhibition slate. The Eagles are 4-point favorites hosting New England Friday, and will likely march out five different QBs by the end of the night.

Detroit Lions (9-8 SU, 4-10-3 ATS)

There is pressure on coach Jim Schwartz to win right away in 2013, after last year’s disastrous four-win campaign. And that could mean giving more than two craps about the preseason. The Lions will reportedly run a cut-and-dry game plan, not customizing their attack to Week 1 opponents, the New York Jets. Detroit has new RB Reggie Bush atop the depth chart with Mikel Leshoure backing him up. The Lions could stretch the legs and go rush-heavy in order to build their ground game.

[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Cincinnati at Atlanta[/h] The Bengals open their preseason by travelling to Atlanta to face the Falcons. Cincinnati is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bengals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Toronto at Montreal[/h] The Alouettes look to build on their 5-13 ATS record in their last 18 games versus the Argonauts. Montreal is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal. Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

Joe Wiz

NFL Bonus Play Thursday Redskins/Titans Under 36

NFL Betting: AFC East Teams' Awful ATS Trend

The Miami Dolphins failed to cover as 3-point faves in a 24-20 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in the Hall of Fame Game Sunday.

The failure to cover the spread harkens back to a dismal 2012 preseason campaign for AFC East teams.

The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and New York Jets finished the 2012 exhibition schedule a combined 1-15 ATS. The Bills were the only team to cover as they were 3-point dogs in a 7-6 loss to the Washington Redskins.

Miami, New England and New York all finished 0-4 ATS.

The preseasons schedule resumes Thursday, but the AFC East squads are in action on Friday.

The Jets are currently 4.5-road dogs as they face the Detroit Lions.
The Pats are similar 4.5-point road underdogs in Philly to take on the Eagles.
The Dolphins' second game is on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars with the that matchup currently a pick 'em. Finally, The Indianapolis Colts host the Bills to finish off the week Sunday. The Bills are 3-point road dogs in that game.

Vegas Wiseguy Report: Betting the NFL Preseason
by Teddy Covers

I write a ‘How to beat the NFL Preseason article’ just about every year. But this is no ‘cut and paste’ from previous editions, because my strategies for betting (and beating) preseason football have been altered over the years, in some ways quite dramatically.

I updated this piece from start to finish last year and have updated it again for 2013, focusing on how the betting markets have changed here in the 21st century and the ways savvy bettors can take advantage of those changes.

My goal this week is to debunk some of those aging myths while focusing on strategies that work here in 2013.

Coaches vs. Coordinators

I used to be very concerned with finding and interpreting a head coach’s comments prior to preseason games. In the modern era of largely innocuous ‘coach-speak’, I’m definitely more interested in what the coordinators are saying. That goes doubly when we’re talking about first year coordinators installing new systems.

Neither coordinators nor head coaches are likely to give away tidbits in the regular season. But in the preseason, sometimes they’ll tell you exactly what they’re going to do, allowing you to cash some relatively easy winning bets.

Here are a list of the 13 new offensive coordinators around the NFL for the 2013 season:

*Harold Goodwin, Arizona

*Nathaniel Hackett, Buffalo

*Mike Shula, Carolina

*Aaron Kromer, Chicago

*Norv Turner, Cleveland

*Adam Gase, Denver

*Pep Hamiton, Indianapolis

*Jedd Fisch, Jacksonville

*Doug Pederson, Kansas City

*Marty Mohrninweg, New York Jets

*Greg Olson, Oakland

*Pat Schurmer, Philadelphia

*Ken Whisenhunt, San Diego

The Power of the Blitz

Most coaches don’t like to see their star veteran quarterback take big hits in the preseason. I don’t blame them! That simple fact gives teams with aggressive, blitzing defensive schemes a legitimate edge in August.

Teams that blitz early and often tend to have preseason success shutting down opposing offenses. Once again, finding out the coordinator’s gameplan can pay real dividends. And it’s surely worth noting that the Saints are only -3 at home against a Kansas City team breaking in a new coach, new quarterback and new offense this Friday Night.

The Value of ‘3’

NFL bettors are conditioned to think about the pointspread number of + or -3 as being the single most important or ‘key’ number in football betting. That certainly holds true for the regular season, when nearly one out of every seven games finishes with a final margin of three points.

But in August, coaches don’t play for overtime. We saw a prime example of that in Week 1 of the preseason last year. Jacksonville rallied from 17 points down against the Giants, scoring their final TD with two minutes left in the fourth quarter.

Instead of kicking the extra point to tie the game – making it quite likely that one of the two teams would win by a field goal – Jacksonville head coach Mike Mularkey went for the two point conversion and the win. The Jags made that conversion and won the game by a single point; a great result for line shoppers and a lousy result for the house.

This is not unusual in the slightest. And the lesson here is perfectly clear. The value of pointspreads like 1, 1.5, and 2 increase in August, while the value of the almighty -3 declines rather precipitously. Four games were decided by a single point in Week 1 last year, and that Browns-Lions game was decided by two. We didn’t see a single one of the first 16 preseason games in 2012 finish with a three point final margin. It was a similar story in 2011, without a single three point decision in the first two weeks of preseason action.

Steve: Golf Picks: PGA Championship

TIGER WOODS – 4.35 to 1
JASON DUFNER 35 to 1
KEEGAN BRADLEY 35 to 1

Head to Head

HENRIK STENSON (-140) over Hunter Mahan
KEEGAN BRADLEY (-115) over Matt Kuchar

Tiger Woods and the drought that sportsbooks love
By JON CAMPBELL

Tiger Woods has gone 17 straight majors without a win yet he still garners the majority of the futures action at every book on the planet every time one of the four biggies comes around. This week's PGA Championship is no different.

Does that make him the biggest sucker bet in all of sports, with odds typically ranging from about 7/2 to 10-1 in recent majors?

Just look at what Las Vegas oddsmakers said in this nice piece by Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas *************** just before the British Open.

Jimmy Vaccaro, William Hill:

“It’s been good booking this stuff for the past five years. Actually, it’s been better than good. You get people chasing him, even the smart guys."

Tony Miller, The Golden Nugget:

“I love putting those high odds on Tiger. I want people to bet him."

Jeff Sherman, Las Vegas Hotel:

“It’s amazing. It feels like it keeps getting bigger and bigger. It surprises me how many large wagers keep coming. This is the most that we’ve written on him in a major. People are betting on Tiger like this thing has already been played.”

Jay Rood, MGM properties:

“You don’t get blind support for him like you used to but if he puts in a strong performance a week before a major, he draws a ton of action.”

Rood was right on the money. Woods plummeted from about 10/1 to 7/2 at a lot of books after he won at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational by seven shots last weekend. And the action is still rolling in.

That was Tiger's fifth win this season and only twice in the last 30 years has a player won at least five times in a year and failed to win a major. But that was Woods who did it both times - in 2009 and 2003.

The second favorite this week is British Open champion Phil Mickelson, who is way behind Tiger at between 12/1 and 15/1 at most shops.

CFL

Week 7

Toronto (3-2) @ Montreal (2-3)-- Alouettes fired Dan Hawkins during bye week; they've scored 38-32 points in two wins, 17.3 ppg in three losses, dropping two of three at home. Toronto split its two road games, with favorite covering both; they've scored 39-35-38 in their wins, 16-28 in losses, with four of five games going over total. This is first meeting in series since Argos (+5) upset Als 27-20 in Eastern Conference finals last fall, just 4th win for Toronto in last 18 series games- they're 3-4 in last seven visits here, winning twice in last three visits. Montreal has been outscored in second half of every game (80-45), after outscoring opponents 77-59 in first half. Last five series games stayed under the total.

What bettors need to know: Thursday's NFL preseason action

Check out our cheat sheet for all of Thursday's NFL Week 1 preseason betting action:

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 35.5)

In the past, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh usually played his starters for most of the first quarter but with a rash of injuries during the summer, Baltimore may limit the action of its first stringers.

Tampa Bay is also trying to protect its key players from injury this offseason. The Bucs aren’t sold on Josh Freeman as the No. 1, so there could be plenty of snaps for him and rookie QB Mike Glennon.

St. Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns (-4, 35.5)

St. Louis is going to give RB Daryl Richardson the starting gig heading into the preseason opener. The Rams will work in their new offensive line additions Thursday, so Sam Bradford’s workload could depend on the protection.

Cleveland won’t have RB Trent Richardson in the lineup versus St. Louis and is still without Montario Hardesty, leaving rushing duties to third and fourth-stringers Dion Lewis and Brandon Jackson.

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 35.5)

While Robert Griffin III says he feels great, the Redskins won’t risk throwing their franchise QB out there Thursday. Washington will go with Kirk Cousins at QB and is expected to play its starters 10-15 plays.

Tennessee head coach Mike Munchak is focusing on his rebuilt offensive line this preseason, more specifically paving the way for RB Chris Johnson. The Titans first string will play between 18 and 25 plays.

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 37)

These two teams have shared practice time the past week, so there may be some familiarity with each other Thursday. Bengals star WR A.J. Green will sit out while nursing a sore knee and fellow WR Andrew Hawkins is out with an ankle injury.

Atlanta won’t have TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Julio Jones or LB Sean Weatherspoon in Week 1 of the preseason. Head coach Mike Smith may not keep QB Matt Ryan under center long with injuries to the offensive line this week.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 35)

Peyton Manning is expected to see limited action all preseason but he did tell reporters he was anxious to play the 49ers Thursday, hinting that he may actually take snaps Thursday. Manning didn’t play in Denver’s Week 1 preseason game last summer.

San Francisco will give its first stringers a taste of action before turning its attention to position needs. An injury to CB Chris Culliver has left a big hole in the secondary, so there could be plenty of tinkering with the pass defense. Colt McCoy will get some face time as Colin Kaepernick’s backup.

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers (+2, 35.5)

The Seahawks have become one of the best preseason bets, going 39-26-3 ATS since 1995 including a 4-0 ATS mark last summer. Seattle QB Russell Wilson, who will see limited snaps, told reporters the Seahawks are bringing a basic offense into Thursday game.

San Diego’s new head coach Mike McCoy is stressing speed this summer, so the Bolts could be full of juice Thursday night, even though they’re missing some downfield threats. The Chargers lost WR Danario Alexander for the season after he tore his ACL this week and WR Vincent Brown is still slowed with a hamstring strain.

Best over/under bets of NFL preseason Week 1
By JASON LOGAN

If you’re tackling totals this NFL preseason this week, take a look at which teams lean towards the over or the under during Week 1 of the exhibition schedule.

Records as of 1995.

Best NFL preseason Week 1 over bets

New York Jets (7-10 SU, 12-5 O/U in Week 1)

The Jets offense was a joke last preseason, leading to a 1-3 over/under mark. Now that the cat’s out of the bag and the scoring struggles are frontpage fodder, New York’s totals could get a serious haircut this summer. Books have set the number at 36 points for the Jets Week 1 preseason date in Detroit.

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8 SU, 11-5-1 O/U in Week 1)

The Jaguars are another team known for their anemic offense. Jacksonville is bouncing between Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne at QB and will likely be without RB Maurice Jones-Drew for the preseason opener versus Miami Friday. Oddsmakers have the total at 35.5 for that matchup.

Best NFL preseason Week 1 under bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6 SU, 3-14 ATS)

Tampa Bay is working in a new defense, hoping to stop the bleeding against the pass. With the emphasis on that and the franchise wanting to get a good look at rookie QB Mike Glennon, the unders could continue to come. The Bucs have a total of 35.5 for their Week 1 preseason tilt with the Ravens, who are 4-12 O/U in Week 1 of the preseason since 1995.

Washington Redskins (9-8 SU, 4-13 O/U in Week 1)

There will likely be no RG3 sight this preseason, with Washington playing it cool with Robert Griffin III’s wonky knee. Backup QB Kirk Cousins will handle the majority of the passing duties, especially in the Week 1 preseason opener with Tennessee. The total is set at 35.5 points.

PGA Championship betting props: Ace at Oak Hill paying +110

The first round of the 2013 PGA Championship gets underway Thursday with Tiger Woods (+400) once again listed as the favorite to earn his fifth Wanamaker Trophy. If you’re tired of betting on top 10 finishes and outright winners there are some interesting prop bets available.

Below props courtesy of Bet365:

Will there be a hole-in-one?

Yes +110
No -150

* Robert Allenby carded a hole-in-one on the ninth hole when the PGA Championship was held at Oak Hill in 2003.
* There have been seven aces in the last three events held at Oak Hill.

Will there be a playoff?

Yes +250
No -350

* The PGA Championship last went to a playoff in 2011 when Keegan Bradley trumped Jason Dufner in the three-hole playoff.
* There have been three tournaments (2011, 2010, 2004) that have gone into a playoff in the previous 10.
* There was no playoff the last time the event was held at Oak Hill in 2003.

Top European

Justin Rose +750
Lee Westwood +800
Henrik Stenson +800
Rory McIlroy +900

* Justin Rose won his first major at the 2013 U.S. Open.
* Lee Westwood has missed the cut at the PGA in two of the past five years.
* Sweden's Henrik Stenson finished T2 (-8) at WGC-Bridgestone last weekend.
* Rory McIlroy is the defending champ at The PGA Championship after winning by 8-strokes last year.

Nationality of winner

USA -163
Europe +225
Rest of the world +450

* An American has won the PGA Championship in 12 of the previous 20 years.
* A European has won in three of the previous 20 years, including two of the last three.
* A player from outside the USA and Europe has won in five of the past 20 years, including YE Yang's win in 2009.

Below props courtesy of WilliamHill:

Margin of victory

Playoff +240
1 shot +250
2 shots +350
3 shots +450
4 shots +333

* Shaun Micheel won by two strokes when the event was last held at Oak Hill in 2003.
* Rory McIlroy won by eight strokes last year.

Top English player

Justin Rose +225
Lee Westwood +225
Luke Donald +333
Ian Poulter +500

* Poulter and Rose finished T3 last year.
* Westwood's best finish was T3 in 2009. He missed the cut last year.
* Luke Donald's best finish was T3 in 2006. He was T32 last year.

Top Australian

Adam Scott -138
Jason Day +275
Matt Jones +800
Geoff Ogilvy +1200

* Adam Scott won the Masters Tournament earlier this year and finished T3 at the British Open. He finished T11 at the PGA last year.
* Jason Day finished third at the Masters and T2 at the US Open. He has missed the cut at the two previous PGA Championships.
* Jones is currently ranked No. 135 in the world. He owns a 70.31 scoring average which ranks him No. 10 on the tour.
* Ogilvy finished T11 at the PGA Championship last year. His best result was T6 in 2005 and 2007. He finished T27 when the event was held at Oak Hill in 2003.

Top American player

Tiger Woods +200
Phil Mickelson +800
Brandt Snedeker +1400
Keegan Bradley +1800

* Tiger has won the event four times and is coming off a victory at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. However, he finished T39 at the 2003 PGA when it was held at Oak Hill.
* Mickelson won the Wanamaker Trophy in 2005. He finished T36 last year and finished T23 in 2003 at Oak Hill.
* Snedeker has missed the cut two straight years at the PGA and his best result was T18 in 2007.
* Bradley won the event in 2011 and finished T3 last year.

Below props courtesy of LadBrokes:

Top past winner

Tiger Woods -162
Phil Mickelson +450
Keegan Bradley +1000
Rory McIlroy +1000

First round leader

Tiger Woods +350
Phil Mickelson +1600
Adam Scott +2000
Justin Rose +3300

NFL Trends & Angles - Preseason Week 1

August 7, 2013

The 2013 NFL Preseason has begun, and appropriately it began with an outright upset that could have been easily foreseeable as the Dallas Cowboys beat the Miami Dolphins as three-point underdogs. You see, Miami Coach Joe Philbin entered that contest with an 0-4 career record in preseason while Dallas Coach Jason Garrett went 3-1 last season.

When you combine that with the past success of the underdogs in preseason Week 1/Hall of Fame week, and that game was a perfect example of why bettors who refuse to bet on preseason preferring instead to wait until the regular year starts are missing out on a potential gold mine.

We may be in the minority, but we have always felt that NFL preseason is easier to beat than the NFL regular season. NFL regular season lines are the tightest lines of any North American sport out of necessity, the NFL is the most popular sport (i.e., most heavily bet), and so the lines need to be sharp. Conversely, we had seen many soft spots over the years in the preseason that looked obvious with just a little bit of research.

Each preseason week has its own characteristics, so we will have various approaches as we look at each week individually the next four weeks. Additionally, you should always check the teams' websites each week as another factor that makes preseason easy to beat is that coaches reveal their player rotations and game plans beforehand and then more or less stick to them, making this time of year unique from any other sport.

Also, another common theme across the entire preseason is that there are coaches that simply want to win these games, and the motivation of wanting to win is perhaps the single biggest factor in exhibition games.

Here are four winning preseason coaches that are always worth a second look:

Mike Shanahan (Washington Redskins): Shanahan is now 49-23 straight up in preseason with the Denver Broncos and Redskins combined after going 3-1 with Washington last year, and his teams are 30-18-1, 62.5 percent ATS since 2000.

Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): Tomlin is also coming off of a 3-1 preseason, making his a sparkling 19-6 straight up since becoming Pittsburgh's coach in 2007, and we will have more on Tomlin the final week of preseason as he is 6-0 straight up in Week 4..

John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens): John Harbaugh is 13-7 straight up overall since becoming coach of the defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens in 2008, but he is 12-4 straight up and 10-6, 62.5 percent ATS the last four years.

Jim Schwartz (Detroit Lions): Schwartz is 12-4 straight up and 11-5, 68..8 percent ATS since becoming Detroit coach in 2009, and he may need to continue that preseason success now more than ever to re-instill a winning attitude after the Lions were so dismal in the regular season last year.

And now here are some winning Trends & Angles exclusively for preseason Week 1, with all ATS records being over the last 13 preseasons since 2000.

Play on all underdogs in Week 1 plus Hall of Fame Week (118-95-11, 55.4% ATS):
This record is actually updated up to the second to include the Cowboys' win this past Sunday. Week 1 is the week when the most players get to shuffle in and out of the lineups, with starters hardly playing and many backups getting evaluated. Thus, these games are more like crapshoots so it only makes sense that the underdogs should hold most of the value. Furthermore, Week 1 or Hall of Fame underdogs of +3½ or more are 34-24, 58.6 percent ATS. The Cowboys did not qualify here, but there are currently quite a few dogs listed at +3½ or more for Week 1 coming up, so be on the look-out as these lines move more than regular season lines do and all of our ATS records are based on closing lines.

Play the 'under' in Week 1 or Hall of Fame games with totals greater than 35½
(42-21-1, 66.7%):
There was no play on this angle in this past week's Hall of Fame Game. Because of the sloppiness that can be expected in Week 1 with so many players seeing action, the average combined total score in Week 1 and Hall of Fame games combined since 2000 is 35.7 points, easily the lowest of any preseason week. That average has made the posted total of 35½ the perfect divider when judging totals, as it is the 'over' that is 73-66-2 in games with posted totals of 35½ or less.

Week 1 coaches:

Starting with the Big Four

Shanahan is 13-5 straight up in Week 1 with the Broncos and Redskins

Tomlin is 4-3

Harbaugh is 4-1

Schwartz is 2-2

Here are some other notable Week 1 marks.

Bill Belichick (New England Patriots, 10-4): Belichick and his Patriots won their preseason opener again last season and he is a lucrative is 9-3-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2000.

Rex Ryan (New York Jets, 0-4): More importantly from a betting perspective, Sexy Rexy is also 0-4 ATS as coach of the Jets, as his defensive schemes are obviously much simpler at the outset than they become later on.

LA Syndicate Top Plays

MLB
Giants
Cardinals
Tigers

XNFL
Seahawks/Chargers Under 35.5

Chicago Syndicate Top Plays

MLB
Cubs
Tigers

XNFL
Tampa Bay Bucs -3