[h=1]Best PGA Championship bets[/h][h=3]Is Tiger Woods a good value at 3-1? Plus, head-to-head wagers[/h]
By Alf Musketa | ESPN Insider
The 95th PGA Championship will be held at the Oak Hill Country Club East Course in Rochester, N.Y. The Donald Ross-designed par-70 course will measure 7,163 yards. It's a short course by today's standards, but as we saw at the U.S. Open at Merion, short tracks can cause a lot of trouble.
This demanding golf course is tree-lined with thick rough, three sets of graduated rough, and tough, deep bunkers guarding small elevated greens that require accurate approach shots. The fairways have been measured on average 26½ paces wide, and early reports are that if you miss the short grass you will be penalized. Players will hit more fairway woods and hybrids than drivers off the tee, because landing areas become tighter the farther down the fairway you go. There are many forced layups due to hazards, mostly due to a creek that winds throughout most of the golf course, so I like players who excel in driving accuracy and scrambling when needed. Oak Hill appears to look like more of a U.S. Open setup to me, and I believe a total score of 277 (3 under par) or worse could win this week.
For the final major of the season, I recommend playing four or five head-to-head matchups for approximately 80 percent of your weekly allotted bankroll, and the other 20 percent spread across your best choice to win in the future book -- along with a couple of long shots and maybe a prop or two.
Let's take a look at my top future book odd selections and long-shot value plays:
Odds courtesy of William Hill US Sports Books in Las Vegas.
[h=3]Future bets[/h]
Tiger Woods (3-1)
Woods just won his eighth WGC Bridgestone invitational, which was his 79th career win on the PGA Tour and fifth win this year. Amazingly, he's won five times or more in a single year 10 times. The last time Woods won an event by six shots or more the week before a major, he won the following week at the PGA Championship in 2007 at Southern Hills.
<OFFER>Woods can win this week because he doesn't have to hit his driver often. When he's playing his best, he is sinking putts -- and last week at Firestone he putted aggressively, shooting a 61 in the second round, which separated him from the field. I see confidence in his swing and his short game.
He does have short odds of 3-1, but this is the best he's looked heading into a major in years.
Adam Scott (16-1)
A win here will surely lock up player of the year honors for Scott with two majors, and would also give him the No. 2 spot in the world rankings. His high soft iron game is the perfect shot to attack these small elevated greens. There are four par-3s that will require mid-to-long irons and I can't think of another player who has the potential to play those holes better than Scott.
Zach Johnson (50-1)
Johnson is one of the hottest players in the game today. He lost in a playoff at the John Deere Classic, was sixth at the Open Championship and last week was tied for fourth at the Bridgestone invitational. One of the key handicapping factors that I look at each week is who shoots the best two final rounds the previous weekend; Johnson was second-best, firing a 68 and 67. I like the way he's turning through the ball on his swing, and he ranks a solid 12th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy.
Peter Uihlein (250-1)
Uihlein is a star on the horizon. He has a textbook three-quarter swing, hits it miles when he needs to and has a deadly short game. He will win a major championship someday. In his early professional career he has decided to take on the European Tour, and in his first year he has posted six top-10 finishes including a win at the Madeira Island Open. Despite odds of 250-1, I wouldn't be shocked to see him win this week. He represents tremendous value.
Field (8-1)
I get asked all the time: "Should I play the field bet in the majors?" The answer is yes, if you do it correctly. It is a fact that 14 of the last 18 majors have produced first-time winners. What you need to do is shop around and find the best field odds with the least amount of players listed. If you find a sportsbook that lists only the top 30 players and has odds of 8-1 or better, you have a play. Stay away from sportsbooks that list 100-plus players and give you just 5-1 odds or worse -- there is no value there for a field play.
[h=3]Head-to-head matchups[/h]
Henrik Stenson minus-135 over Hunter Mahan
Stenson is a ball-striking machine and ranks sixth in driving accuracy. He has three top-three finishes in as many starts and was tied for second last week behind Woods. However, this matchup is more of a bet against Mahan than on Stenson. Mahan left the golf course before the third round of the Canadian Open two weeks ago to be in attendance for the birth of his first child. How can his game be sharp? How much sleep has he been able to get? There is also a head-to-head matchup out there against Mahan with Brandt Snedeker -- I have no problem playing both matchups fading Mahan.
Webb Simpson minus-120 over Rickie Fowler
Fowler usually hits a draw off the tee, which is not recommended here at Oak Hill. He was tied for 21st at the no-cut WGC Bridgestone Invitational and his play seemed uninspired. Conversely, Simpson finished tied for 14th last week, has a major under his belt and plays well in back-to-back situations.
Adam Scott minus-115 over Phil Mickelson
Yes, I had Mickelson to win the Open Championship, but I'm not recommending him on an old-style traditional golf course layout and a setup that currently doesn't suit his game. Mickelson loved the Scottish Open and excelled with the wide-open sightlines at Muirfield. He was able to release the club and swing freely. Mickelson ranks way down near the bottom of the list at 161st in driving accuracy, though, which could be his downfall this week. Scott was tied for 14th last week and ranks sixth overall in total driving.
By Alf Musketa | ESPN Insider
The 95th PGA Championship will be held at the Oak Hill Country Club East Course in Rochester, N.Y. The Donald Ross-designed par-70 course will measure 7,163 yards. It's a short course by today's standards, but as we saw at the U.S. Open at Merion, short tracks can cause a lot of trouble.
This demanding golf course is tree-lined with thick rough, three sets of graduated rough, and tough, deep bunkers guarding small elevated greens that require accurate approach shots. The fairways have been measured on average 26½ paces wide, and early reports are that if you miss the short grass you will be penalized. Players will hit more fairway woods and hybrids than drivers off the tee, because landing areas become tighter the farther down the fairway you go. There are many forced layups due to hazards, mostly due to a creek that winds throughout most of the golf course, so I like players who excel in driving accuracy and scrambling when needed. Oak Hill appears to look like more of a U.S. Open setup to me, and I believe a total score of 277 (3 under par) or worse could win this week.
For the final major of the season, I recommend playing four or five head-to-head matchups for approximately 80 percent of your weekly allotted bankroll, and the other 20 percent spread across your best choice to win in the future book -- along with a couple of long shots and maybe a prop or two.
Let's take a look at my top future book odd selections and long-shot value plays:
Odds courtesy of William Hill US Sports Books in Las Vegas.
[h=3]Future bets[/h]
Tiger Woods (3-1)
Woods just won his eighth WGC Bridgestone invitational, which was his 79th career win on the PGA Tour and fifth win this year. Amazingly, he's won five times or more in a single year 10 times. The last time Woods won an event by six shots or more the week before a major, he won the following week at the PGA Championship in 2007 at Southern Hills.
<OFFER>Woods can win this week because he doesn't have to hit his driver often. When he's playing his best, he is sinking putts -- and last week at Firestone he putted aggressively, shooting a 61 in the second round, which separated him from the field. I see confidence in his swing and his short game.
He does have short odds of 3-1, but this is the best he's looked heading into a major in years.
Adam Scott (16-1)
A win here will surely lock up player of the year honors for Scott with two majors, and would also give him the No. 2 spot in the world rankings. His high soft iron game is the perfect shot to attack these small elevated greens. There are four par-3s that will require mid-to-long irons and I can't think of another player who has the potential to play those holes better than Scott.
Zach Johnson (50-1)
Johnson is one of the hottest players in the game today. He lost in a playoff at the John Deere Classic, was sixth at the Open Championship and last week was tied for fourth at the Bridgestone invitational. One of the key handicapping factors that I look at each week is who shoots the best two final rounds the previous weekend; Johnson was second-best, firing a 68 and 67. I like the way he's turning through the ball on his swing, and he ranks a solid 12th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy.
Peter Uihlein (250-1)
Uihlein is a star on the horizon. He has a textbook three-quarter swing, hits it miles when he needs to and has a deadly short game. He will win a major championship someday. In his early professional career he has decided to take on the European Tour, and in his first year he has posted six top-10 finishes including a win at the Madeira Island Open. Despite odds of 250-1, I wouldn't be shocked to see him win this week. He represents tremendous value.
Field (8-1)
I get asked all the time: "Should I play the field bet in the majors?" The answer is yes, if you do it correctly. It is a fact that 14 of the last 18 majors have produced first-time winners. What you need to do is shop around and find the best field odds with the least amount of players listed. If you find a sportsbook that lists only the top 30 players and has odds of 8-1 or better, you have a play. Stay away from sportsbooks that list 100-plus players and give you just 5-1 odds or worse -- there is no value there for a field play.
[h=3]Head-to-head matchups[/h]
Henrik Stenson minus-135 over Hunter Mahan
Stenson is a ball-striking machine and ranks sixth in driving accuracy. He has three top-three finishes in as many starts and was tied for second last week behind Woods. However, this matchup is more of a bet against Mahan than on Stenson. Mahan left the golf course before the third round of the Canadian Open two weeks ago to be in attendance for the birth of his first child. How can his game be sharp? How much sleep has he been able to get? There is also a head-to-head matchup out there against Mahan with Brandt Snedeker -- I have no problem playing both matchups fading Mahan.
Webb Simpson minus-120 over Rickie Fowler
Fowler usually hits a draw off the tee, which is not recommended here at Oak Hill. He was tied for 21st at the no-cut WGC Bridgestone Invitational and his play seemed uninspired. Conversely, Simpson finished tied for 14th last week, has a major under his belt and plays well in back-to-back situations.
Adam Scott minus-115 over Phil Mickelson
Yes, I had Mickelson to win the Open Championship, but I'm not recommending him on an old-style traditional golf course layout and a setup that currently doesn't suit his game. Mickelson loved the Scottish Open and excelled with the wide-open sightlines at Muirfield. He was able to release the club and swing freely. Mickelson ranks way down near the bottom of the list at 161st in driving accuracy, though, which could be his downfall this week. Scott was tied for 14th last week and ranks sixth overall in total driving.
