Preseason NFL Vegas Power Ranks

Search

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,160
Tokens
[h=1]Preseason NFL Vegas Power Ranks[/h][h=3]Vegas experts give their preseason power rankings for all 32 NFL teams[/h]
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
in.gif



LAS VEGAS -- Who is the No. 1 NFL team, according to the oddsmakers and bettors here? If you look at the future books, that would be the Denver Broncos, as they're the 5-1 favorite to win the Super Bowl at the LVH SuperBook with the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers at 7-1. But does that make Denver the league's best team? Not necessarily.
The 49ers are actually ranked a half-point better than the Broncos, according to ESPN Insider's Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll that consists of professional handicappers Teddy "Covers" Sevransky, Sal Selvaggio and yours truly, Dave Tuley. The poll is a combination of our individual power rankings that we use in our own handicapping. My rankings go from 26, which is what I had the 49ers at in my top spot, down to 15 for Jacksonville. I take the other handicappers' ratings -- Teddy has 22 as his top ranking while Sal starts at 100 -- adjust them to fit my scale and average them out so they're not representative of any one handicapper, but rather the group as a whole.


The 49ers were also our consensus top team the day after they lost to the Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl and have maintained that spot during the offseason. In that time, the Ravens have dropped three points in our rankings, and the Patriots have fallen a point and a half. The chart below reveals where teams ranked at the end of the last season and where they stand now.


The ranking of the NFL's top teams is all open to debate, but that doesn't mean it isn't valuable. How do we put this into action and find value for Week 1 lines? <OFFER></OFFER>

Looking at the lines available for Week 1, there are 11 games that are spot-on or within a point with our rankings after adjusting around 2.5 points for home-field advantage, which is pretty much the industry standard these days. (Note: The Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints tend to be given more for their strong home fields, while the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets get less.) In the Bettors' Poll line below, the number in parentheses is the difference between the respective teams' power ratings.


For instance, in the early "Monday Night Football" game on opening weekend, the Washington Redskins are a plus-4.5-point favorite. We have them ranked two points ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles, so after adding Washington's home-field advantage, that puts us right around the consensus line.


<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Preseason Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll[/h]
RankTeamFeb. 4, 2013Aug. 8, 2013SB XLVIII odds
1San Francisco 49ers26266-1
2Denver Broncos2525.55-1
3Seattle Seahawks25.52510-1
T-4New England Patriots25.5247-1
T-4Green Bay Packers25.5248-1
T-6Houston Texans2422.512-1
T-6New Orleans Saints20.522.518-1
8Atlanta Falcons23.52218-1
T-9New York Giants2221.520-1
T-9Baltimore Ravens24.521.530-1
T-9Pittsburgh Steelers2221.518-1
12Washington Redskins22.52120-1
T-13Cincinnati Bengals2220.520-1
T-13Chicago Bears2120.530-1
T-13Dallas Cowboys20.520.530-1
T-16Carolina Panthers20.519.540-1
T-16Indianapolis Colts19.519.530-1
T-16Miami Dolphins18.519.540-1
T-16Detroit Lions17.519.550-1
T-20Minnesota Vikings211950-1
T-20St. Louis Rams191950-1
T-20Philadelphia Eagles17.51960-1
23Tampa Bay Buccaneers18.518.550-1
24San Diego Chargers1817.550-1
T-25Cleveland Browns181760-1
T-25Tennessee Titans1617100-1
T-25Kansas City Chiefs141760-1
28Buffalo Bills17.516.5100-1
29New York Jets161660-1
30Arizona Cardinals14.515.5300-1
31Oakland Raiders1515200-1
32Jacksonville Jaguars1514300-1

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>


<!-- end inline 1 -->
Here are the five Week 1 games we see as having the most betting value right now (with extra emphasis given when games fall on our side of the key numbers of 3 and 7):

[h=3]Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Broncos minus-8.5 | Bettors' Poll: Broncos minus-4 (25.5-21.5)

Even with all of us downgrading the defending Super Bowl champs because of their offseason losses, we still have them just four points behind the Broncos. If you give Denver a full field goal for home-field advantage to push our line to 7, that still makes the current line of minus-8.5 look overinflated. Granted, the oddsmakers know that bettors will be taking the Broncos, who want revenge for their loss to the Ravens in the AFC divisional playoffs, but the number still looks overinflated.

The play: Ravens plus-8.5 (or anything over a touchdown).



[h=3]New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Patriots minus-7 | Bettors' Poll: Patriots minus-7.5 (24-16.5)
We have the Patriots 7.5 points better than the Bills, but with the Bills at home -- even with their home field not being as strong as it used to be -- that brings it comfortably under a touchdown. It appears some sharp bettors already are on the Bills, as the line has been bet down to plus-6.5 at some places, so it might be best to grab it now.

The play: Bills plus-7.



[h=3]Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Chiefs minus-3 | Bettors' Poll: Chiefs minus-3 (17-14)
While it's true that our power-rating difference for this game is the same as the line that's out there, that's before Jacksonville's home field is applied. Granted, as I alluded to earlier, the Jags have one of the weakest home fields in the league, but it's still enough to get this under the key number of 3 (and there are some 3.5s out there).

The play: Jaguars, but only if you're getting the plus-3.5, otherwise wait.



[h=3]Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Bears minus-3.5 | Bettors' Poll: Pick-em (20.5-20.5)

Yes, we have these teams ranked dead even. We would normally expect this number to be just under a field goal if the aforementioned new-age "2.5 points for home field" was applied or 3 if the old-school "home field is worth a field goal" was used, but here we're getting the hook at plus-3.5. And that means there is value on the Bengals.

The play: Bengals plus-3.5.



[h=3]New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Cowboys minus-2.5 | Bettors' Poll: Giants minus-1 (21.5-20.5)
Here we have the other team favored, though obviously the Giants are on the road and that's why the Cowboys are favored in Vegas. Now, the consensus line out there is Giants plus-2.5. There are some plus-3s available, but most of them require you to pay a little more vig. This is just my opinion (and not the panel's), but I'd go for the plus-3 as long as the vig isn't any higher than minus-120. The other way to play it would be just to take the "better team" to win straight up at plus-130.

The play: Giants plus-3, minus-120.



Panel:
Dave Tuley of ESPN Insider and ViewFromVegas.com
Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com
Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,766
Messages
13,438,770
Members
99,337
Latest member
hbs_solutions
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com