| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | -4.26 |
| Last 30 Days | 39 | 27 | 0.00 | +41.23 |
| Season to Date | 175 | 168 | 0.00 | +78.39 |
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HOME TEAM IN CAPS
San Diego and Detroit are 2 unit plays while the Halos are 2.08 units to win 2.
L.A. Angels -104 over CLEVELAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Indians have dropped five in a row and have only scored 13 runs over that span. In fact, Cleveland has scored three runs or fewer in five of its past six games. It’s not the best time to go cold and suddenly pressure mounts in the heat of a pennant race and for most of these Indians players, it’s unchartered territory. The Indians bullpen was used extensively last night after Scott Kazmir lasted just three innings. That bullpen could be called upon early again today because Ubaldo Jimenez is a pitcher in trouble. Decreased velocity and a lack of control continue to plague Jimenez. Jimenez had great success between 2009-2011 when he won 44 games but those days are long gone. This year, he’s walked 62 batters in 110 frames and that doesn’t bode well against the Angels good hitting line-up that plays aggressively on the base-paths. Jimenez also had high groundball % when he was successful; he’s given up more fly balls in 2012/13. Part of his problem is due to dropping velocity. While he averaged 96 mph in 2009/2010, he was at 92.5 in 2012 and 91.9 this year. Jimenez’s quality start/disaster split of 41%/27% highlights his fading skills. In his heyday, he posted 79%/12% in 2009 and 82%/6% in 2010. Jimenez is now two years removed from that success. Between decreased velocity and the inability to avoid free passes, Jimenez remains a very risky favorite, especially now that the Tribe have cooled off.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
They say that misery loves company and the Angels are only too happy to make life miserable for these contenders now that they're out of it. The Halos are now playing with no pressure whatsoever and could be a very live pooch the rest of the way. C.J. Wilson has rebounded nicely after a tough April and he keeps getting better. Over his last five starts covering 33 frames, Wilson has struck out 32 batters to go along with his 3.48 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He accomplished that with a low strand rate of 68%. Wilson now has 137 K’s in 147 innings. He also has a strong groundball rate of 48%. Of his 23 starts, 18 of them have been of the pure quality variety including four of the last five. Wilson has also walked fewer batters each month since the start of the year and is in fine form heading into this one. C.J. Wilson and the Halos offer up much more value at a pick 'em than the cold combination of Jimenez and the Indians.[/FONT]
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San Diego over CINCINNATI
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important] [FONT=arial !important]Tony Cingrani is a rookie pitcher with nice upside but he’s way overvalued here. Cingrani threw 103 pitches in his last start in just five frames before being yanked. Against Atlanta on July 14, he threw 96 pitches in four frames before getting the hook. Two starts back he threw 119 pitches in 6.2 frames against the Dodgers and that’s the problem with this guy. Cingrani is throwing far too many pitches per at bat and when you allow hitters at this level to see that many pitches, it’s going to bite you. Over his last four starts, Cingrani has walked 12 in 23 frames. He has a nifty 3.05 ERA on the year but a 5.06 xERA over his last seven starts tells us he’s playing with fire. Another warning sign in Cingrani’s profile is his 33%/47% groundball/fly-ball split, which suggests an implosion at this park is inevitable. As a close to 2-1 favorite, Tony Cingrani is a huge risk.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Pressed-into service due to injuries, Tyson Ross has been stellar in his first three starts since joining the rotation, with all of them being of the pure quality variety (20 IP, 22/6 K/BB). Two of those starts came on the road, so his success can't be attributed to the magic of Petco Park. For the season (much of it in relief), he has a 2.91 ERA and an encouraging 51% groundball rate in 65 IP. As a starter, Ross has a 1.35 ERA which is fully supported by an xERA of 2.64. Perhaps the most encouraging stat in Ross’s profile is an elite 9% line-drive rate since being inserted into the rotation and that is the lowest line-drive rate in the majors over any three starts this season. Win or lose, we’re getting tremendous value on Ross and we’re not about to pass it up. Definite overlay. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Detroit -1½ +106 over N.Y. YANKEES
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important] [FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Yanks managed to pull one out last night but that was their first win since A-Rod rejoined the team and the Yanks had a pitching matchup in their favor. Today they do not. Phil Hughes is 1-7 at Yankee Stadium with a rough 6.02 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Hughes has surrendered five bombs over his last two starts at Yankee Stadium and it’s no mystery as to why. A 29%/45% groundball/fly-ball rate has led to a 15% hr/f at home. Phil Hughes cannot keep the ball in the yard. Over his last four starts, Hughes has a 1.68 WHIP and in his last start he walked three batters while whiffing just one. Hughes is regressing.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Over its past 20 games, New York ranks at or near the bottom of every key offensive category, including runs scored, team batting average, on base % and HR’s. They now have to face one of the game’s best. Anibal Sanchez has struck out 131 batters in 119 innings. In six starts since coming off the DL, he’s allowed two runs or fewer in five of them. In his last start, Sanchez struck out 11 Indians and you may also remember that he struck out 17 Braves in a game earlier this year. Sanchez has elite numbers right across the board but he pitches in the shadows of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, making him the most undervalued of the three. Sanchez figures to get plenty of run support here and he should easily take care of the rest.
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