| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | +7.78 |
| Last 30 Days | 41 | 25 | 0.00 | +50.67 |
| Season to Date | 178 | 168 | 0.00 | +86.17 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
All games are 2 units.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Baltimore +104 over SAN FRAN
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]After being in pennant races for the past few years, not to mention a couple of World Series victories, the Giants find themselves in last place in the NL West, 14 games back of the Dodgers. One could fully understand how difficult it must be for the Giants to be stay motivated these days with the end in sight. Another problem that San Fran faces here is that the Orioles lead the majors in jacks with 154 and that could pose a problem for Matt Cain. You see, Cain has a fly-ball bias profile to go along with an 11% hr/f rate, which does not bode well against these power-hitting Orioles. Cain has not allowed more than two earned runs in four straight starts but three of those came at home against the Brewers, Cubbies and D-Backs. These Orioles are far more dangerous than that group. Cain also gets very little run support. In fact, the Giants have scored two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts and when you factor in his 5.00 home ERA, it suggests his chances of losing here are far greater than his chances of winning. Cain has also seen an increase in his walk rate. Combine that with a 1.9 HR/9 with runners on base and it’s another problem that has been flammable at times this season. Cain is very appealing as a dog in certain spots but as the chalk in this spot, he is anything but.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Bud Norris was viewed as a #4-type starter when his name was being thrown out at the trade deadline, a perception that wasn't helped by the 6.38 ERA and 1.58 WHIP he posted in July. Likewise, his skills dipped in July. Before giving up on Norris consider that he was pitching for the Astros for years and losing takes its toll. Suddenly, he winds up on a contender and his motivation and desire to do well skyrockets. Norris can pitch. He had a 93 mph average fastball in July and his swinging strike rate jumped from a nice 9.5% in to an upper-tier 10.8%. Only 10 starting pitchers in the AL had a higher swinging strike % in July than Norris did. Since coming over from the Astros, Norris is 2-0 in two starts after allowing just three earned runs over 12 frames. In those two starts in struck out 13 batters. Pitching for the playoff contending Orioles, a rejuvenated Bud Norris offers up all the value in this one. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
Oakland +109 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]R.A Dickey redefined the knuckleball game last season, adding speed to a pitch that normally relies on deception, and parlaying that into a Cy Young award and a big contract. However, Dickey has been unable to match 2012's success for a variety of reasons. The velocity on Dickey's "fast knuckleball" is down from 83 mph to 81. His groundball rate continues to deteriorate and his control has fallen by the wayside, resulting in limited xERA potential. Dickey's transformation from finesse to "power" pitcher looks to be short-lived, which would be fine if his control and groundball rate were along for the ride but they've regressed further, hindering his chance for recovery. At home, things get even worse for Dickey, where he has been taken yard nine times in his past five home starts. Dickey comes in with a 5.97 home ERA. Only once in 12 home starts has he kept the ball in the park and that came against the White Sox back in April. In 75 IP at the Rogers Center, Dickey has been hammered for 18 bombs. That’s a sick number that should not be ignored here.
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
A.J. Griffin has a 3.91 ERA and 1.10 WHIP after 147 IP. With an average fastball velocity of 89.3 mph, it would seem that Griffin succeeds using means other than velocity. An analysis of his pitch movement confirms this assertion. His pitches have the second-most aggregate movement among AL starters. His curveball has been his biggest weapon. It's a pitch that has nearly nine inches of horizontal movement and eight inches of vertical movement. In 2012, batters had a .351 SLG% against his curveball. They have managed only a .302 SLG% against it so far in 2013. The movement he has gained on his curveball has made it a true plus pitch for him and it's a pitch that he uses often. With solid command against both LH and RH bats, Griffin and his curveball have the skills to post a strong ERA over the long haul. Also note that Griffin has enjoyed huge success against these Blue Jays hitters. Current Jays have just seven hits in 46 career AB’s against Griffin for a BA of just .152, making Griffin and the A’s even more appealing at a price.
[/FONT][/FONT]
[/FONT]
