WRs with poor fantasy matchups
Why Calvin Johnson and other WRs could have diminished value
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
In a recent article for ESPN Insider, we took a look at how favorable cornerback schedules can help fantasy wide receiver candidates.
The flip side of this equation is that wideouts with tough matchup schedules can sometimes have their in-season value muted below what it would be under better circumstances.
So which wide receivers have the least favorable matchup schedules in 2013? And are they capable of beating those matchups to post points in spite of the personnel difficulties?
As we start, it helps to take a quick look at how schedule strengths are measured. In my 2013 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, cornerbacks are graded with a color-coded matchup rating system. Red-rated cornerbacks are among the top third at their position and thus tend to be matchups one wants to avoid if possible. Yellow-rated cornerbacks rate in the middle third of the league and are solid positional battles for wideouts. Green-rated cornerbacks are those in the bottom third of the league and therefore are the most favorable matchups from a wide receiver's perspective.
The guide then reviews which cornerback a wide receiver is slated to face each week and assigns a point total based on the color grade. Red-rated matchups give zero points, yellow-rated matchups award one point and green-rated matchups provide two points. This means the higher the wide receiver's matchup total, the more favorable his schedule is likely to be. Anything close to 10 points is considered a very difficult schedule, and 18-20 points serves as the bar noting an extremely positive set of matchups.
Let's take a closer look at the candidates to see which wideouts have the toughest matchups in 2013.
Calvin Johnson (11 matchup points)
<OFFER></OFFER>
Megatron is hands down the best wide receiver in the NFL, but he has a brutal schedule slate this season. Johnson is due to face seven red-rated cornerbacks, a total that is tied for the second-highest in the league. Making things worse is there are three games in which Johnson is due to face either a yellow- or green-rated cornerback but the Lions' other wideout has a red-rated cornerback due to face him. In those games, it would not be a surprise to see the opposing defense move that red-rated cornerback to match up against Johnson.
This is not to say Johnson is anything less than the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver, as his 8.8 yards per attempt mark against red-rated cornerbacks last year ranked 10th in the league and proves he can deal with this caliber of competition. The takeaway should instead be that this is another factor pointing toward Johnson not being able to quite match his record-setting 2012 season.
Josh Gordon (11 matchup points)
(Gordon's matchup points total is actually a measurement of his season-long positional matchup total, as he is due to be suspended for the first two weeks of the NFL season.)
Gordon doesn't have a terribly hard start to his 2012 campaign as he is due to face only one red-rated cornerback through Week 11. After that, his schedule becomes one to be avoided as he has four red-rated cornerbacks in the last six weeks of the season. That makes him a subpar start prospect in the fantasy postseason, and his 6.4 YPA last year when facing red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks (ranked 58th) suggests he might have some problems even before that time of year.
Tavon Austin (11 matchup points)
Austin is very much like Percy Harvin in that he is a speed running back playing wide receiver, but even those types of players can be negatively affected by matchups -- and no slot wide receiver has a tougher schedule than Austin. Fifteen of his season-long projected cornerback battles are against red- or yellow-rated defenders. St. Louis also faces a number of very physical secondaries (Houston and Chicago, plus Seattle and San Francisco twice each), and all of them will aim to test Austin to see whether his 5-foot-8, 174-pound frame can deal with pro-caliber punishment.
Emmanuel Sanders (11 matchup points)
There are three matchup-based issues for Sanders. First, he is due to square off against red-rated cornerbacks in two of the first four weeks of the season. Second, he has a four-game stretch of red-rated matchups in Weeks 13-16. Third, he had only two passes last year against red-rated cornerbacks, so he is basically unproven against that caliber of competition. He might be up to the task, but, if he isn't, Sanders might not offer very much in the way of quality wide receiver bench depth.
Danny Amendola (12 matchup points)
Dink-and-dunk passes are his specialty, so Amendola isn't going to be as affected by tough matchups as some of the other wideouts on this list. Having noted that, though he does face back-to-back red-rated cornerbacks in Weeks 15 and 16, so his fantasy value could take a hit during the fantasy football playoffs.
Torrey Smith (13 matchup points)
Last year, Smith posted a 5.1 YPA mark on passes against red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks, a total that placed tied for 71st in that category. He also had a 7.6 YPA versus any level of rated cornerback competition (a total that ranked tied for 49th), so pretty much any type of competition can somewhat hinder his progress. That could be an issue all season and could be especially troublesome in Weeks 6-13, when he faces red-rated cornerbacks in five of the Ravens' seven games (they have a bye in Week 8).
A.J. Green (13 matchup points)
Green is in many ways only a step from challenging Calvin Johnson for the title of most dominant wide receiver in the NFL, yet he does have a potential weakness when facing red-rated cornerbacks. Last year, he averaged only 6.6 YPA on 20 pass attempts versus red-rated cornerbacks, a mark that ranked tied for 31st. That number was only slightly higher than his 6.3 YPA versus red-rated cornerbacks in 2011 (ranked tied for 41st) and offers evidence that top-flight coverage defenders can impede his progress to some extent. That could be a hindrance versus a schedule that has five red-rated cornerbacks, with four of those matchups occurring in Weeks 9-17.
Jordy Nelson (13 matchup points)
Nelson has been one of the more matchup-proof wideouts in the NFL. His 10.9 YPA versus red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks finished tied for 19th in 2012, and his 9.6 YPA placed him 12th in that category in 2011. He does have three red-rated cornerbacks in his first seven games, but these numbers indicate that that shouldn't diminish his value in fantasy drafts.
Andre Johnson (13 matchup points)
Andre Johnson finished second only to Calvin Johnson in terms of number of pass attempts against a red- or yellow-rated cornerback (75 for Andre Johnson, 103 for Calvin Johnson). This indicates defenses go all out to try to stop him with top-level coverage. His 7.7 YPA against that caliber of cornerback ranked tied for 32nd in that metric, and Johnson scored only two touchdowns on those throws. This type of coverage was partially responsible for Johnson having five games with five or fewer fantasy points and why he was held under double digits on nine occasions. Look for more of the same hit/miss type of performances this year.
Reggie Wayne (13 matchup points)
Wayne has a reputation for getting more of his value from quantity than quality at this point of his career. His 7.2 YPA and two touchdown passes on 51 passes against red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks last year offers evidence that reputation is accurate. Consider him a workhorse WR2 because of this.
Why Calvin Johnson and other WRs could have diminished value
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
In a recent article for ESPN Insider, we took a look at how favorable cornerback schedules can help fantasy wide receiver candidates.
The flip side of this equation is that wideouts with tough matchup schedules can sometimes have their in-season value muted below what it would be under better circumstances.
So which wide receivers have the least favorable matchup schedules in 2013? And are they capable of beating those matchups to post points in spite of the personnel difficulties?
As we start, it helps to take a quick look at how schedule strengths are measured. In my 2013 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, cornerbacks are graded with a color-coded matchup rating system. Red-rated cornerbacks are among the top third at their position and thus tend to be matchups one wants to avoid if possible. Yellow-rated cornerbacks rate in the middle third of the league and are solid positional battles for wideouts. Green-rated cornerbacks are those in the bottom third of the league and therefore are the most favorable matchups from a wide receiver's perspective.
The guide then reviews which cornerback a wide receiver is slated to face each week and assigns a point total based on the color grade. Red-rated matchups give zero points, yellow-rated matchups award one point and green-rated matchups provide two points. This means the higher the wide receiver's matchup total, the more favorable his schedule is likely to be. Anything close to 10 points is considered a very difficult schedule, and 18-20 points serves as the bar noting an extremely positive set of matchups.
Let's take a closer look at the candidates to see which wideouts have the toughest matchups in 2013.
Calvin Johnson (11 matchup points)
<OFFER></OFFER>
Megatron is hands down the best wide receiver in the NFL, but he has a brutal schedule slate this season. Johnson is due to face seven red-rated cornerbacks, a total that is tied for the second-highest in the league. Making things worse is there are three games in which Johnson is due to face either a yellow- or green-rated cornerback but the Lions' other wideout has a red-rated cornerback due to face him. In those games, it would not be a surprise to see the opposing defense move that red-rated cornerback to match up against Johnson.
This is not to say Johnson is anything less than the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver, as his 8.8 yards per attempt mark against red-rated cornerbacks last year ranked 10th in the league and proves he can deal with this caliber of competition. The takeaway should instead be that this is another factor pointing toward Johnson not being able to quite match his record-setting 2012 season.
Josh Gordon (11 matchup points)
(Gordon's matchup points total is actually a measurement of his season-long positional matchup total, as he is due to be suspended for the first two weeks of the NFL season.)
Gordon doesn't have a terribly hard start to his 2012 campaign as he is due to face only one red-rated cornerback through Week 11. After that, his schedule becomes one to be avoided as he has four red-rated cornerbacks in the last six weeks of the season. That makes him a subpar start prospect in the fantasy postseason, and his 6.4 YPA last year when facing red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks (ranked 58th) suggests he might have some problems even before that time of year.
Tavon Austin (11 matchup points)
Austin is very much like Percy Harvin in that he is a speed running back playing wide receiver, but even those types of players can be negatively affected by matchups -- and no slot wide receiver has a tougher schedule than Austin. Fifteen of his season-long projected cornerback battles are against red- or yellow-rated defenders. St. Louis also faces a number of very physical secondaries (Houston and Chicago, plus Seattle and San Francisco twice each), and all of them will aim to test Austin to see whether his 5-foot-8, 174-pound frame can deal with pro-caliber punishment.
Emmanuel Sanders (11 matchup points)
There are three matchup-based issues for Sanders. First, he is due to square off against red-rated cornerbacks in two of the first four weeks of the season. Second, he has a four-game stretch of red-rated matchups in Weeks 13-16. Third, he had only two passes last year against red-rated cornerbacks, so he is basically unproven against that caliber of competition. He might be up to the task, but, if he isn't, Sanders might not offer very much in the way of quality wide receiver bench depth.
Danny Amendola (12 matchup points)
Dink-and-dunk passes are his specialty, so Amendola isn't going to be as affected by tough matchups as some of the other wideouts on this list. Having noted that, though he does face back-to-back red-rated cornerbacks in Weeks 15 and 16, so his fantasy value could take a hit during the fantasy football playoffs.
Torrey Smith (13 matchup points)
Last year, Smith posted a 5.1 YPA mark on passes against red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks, a total that placed tied for 71st in that category. He also had a 7.6 YPA versus any level of rated cornerback competition (a total that ranked tied for 49th), so pretty much any type of competition can somewhat hinder his progress. That could be an issue all season and could be especially troublesome in Weeks 6-13, when he faces red-rated cornerbacks in five of the Ravens' seven games (they have a bye in Week 8).
A.J. Green (13 matchup points)
Green is in many ways only a step from challenging Calvin Johnson for the title of most dominant wide receiver in the NFL, yet he does have a potential weakness when facing red-rated cornerbacks. Last year, he averaged only 6.6 YPA on 20 pass attempts versus red-rated cornerbacks, a mark that ranked tied for 31st. That number was only slightly higher than his 6.3 YPA versus red-rated cornerbacks in 2011 (ranked tied for 41st) and offers evidence that top-flight coverage defenders can impede his progress to some extent. That could be a hindrance versus a schedule that has five red-rated cornerbacks, with four of those matchups occurring in Weeks 9-17.
Jordy Nelson (13 matchup points)
Nelson has been one of the more matchup-proof wideouts in the NFL. His 10.9 YPA versus red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks finished tied for 19th in 2012, and his 9.6 YPA placed him 12th in that category in 2011. He does have three red-rated cornerbacks in his first seven games, but these numbers indicate that that shouldn't diminish his value in fantasy drafts.
Andre Johnson (13 matchup points)
Andre Johnson finished second only to Calvin Johnson in terms of number of pass attempts against a red- or yellow-rated cornerback (75 for Andre Johnson, 103 for Calvin Johnson). This indicates defenses go all out to try to stop him with top-level coverage. His 7.7 YPA against that caliber of cornerback ranked tied for 32nd in that metric, and Johnson scored only two touchdowns on those throws. This type of coverage was partially responsible for Johnson having five games with five or fewer fantasy points and why he was held under double digits on nine occasions. Look for more of the same hit/miss type of performances this year.
Reggie Wayne (13 matchup points)
Wayne has a reputation for getting more of his value from quantity than quality at this point of his career. His 7.2 YPA and two touchdown passes on 51 passes against red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks last year offers evidence that reputation is accurate. Consider him a workhorse WR2 because of this.
