| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | +4.26 |
| Last 30 Days | 43 | 22 | 0.00 | +61.11 |
| Season to Date | 180 | 168 | 0.00 | +90.43 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
All plays are for 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
L.A. Angels +145 over N.Y. YANKEES
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]There’s been a MASH unit in the Bronx this summer, as the Yankees suffer a never-ending string of injuries. Rotation stalwart Hiroki Kuroda, who’s battling for the AL lead in ERA for starters, had some hip issues in July but didn’t miss significant time. Several things are contributing to Kuroda’s solid year. As in 2011/2012, strand % is high. Combine that with a low hit% and it’s not surprising he’s outperforming his xERA by over a run.There’s some ERA correction coming, which is not to say that Kuroda doesn’t have solid skills. While he doesn’t strike out a ton of guys, he’s stingy with the free passes, leading to consistently elite command. He’s dominating righties to a much greater extent than usual, limiting them to a .207/.231/.303 line this year. Kuroda is 38 and there are no signs of an impending skills drop-off. However, he’s not THIS good and he’s not going to maintain such a low ERA for the rest of the season. Besides, we’re not asking the Halos to put up anything crooked here. Three or four runs could certainly get us to the cashier’s window and that makes the Halos a terrific value play.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The tag on the Yankees here is bordering on ludicrous. Yeah, the Yanks took two of three over the powerful Tigers but baseball is a season with ups and downs and the Tigers had a tough weekend. Big deal. What we know for sure is that Angels are going to come in here all jacked up for this series and they’ll send out a pitcher that is on the verge of a big breakout. Garrett Richards has shown flashes in 2013 of being elite. His overall skills recently have been outstanding with 21 K’s, a 58% groundball rate and just six walks over his past 25 innings. A refined pitch mix deserves some credit for his growth: +9% four-seam fastballs, -16% two-seam fastballs, +10% cutters, -7% change-ups. Batters have produced a low .108 Isolated Power (ISO: SLG% minus BA) against his 96 mph four-seam fastball and his slider has turned into a dominant pitch. Batters have a .156 BA and .222 SLG % against that pitch. Richards is high on our radar. He pitches for perhaps the best 53-63 team in the history of this game and absolutely has a great chance to thrive here. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
CHICAGO +139 over Cincinnati
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Last season, Mat Latos showed the talent to overshadow any negative effects in going from Petco Park to Great American Ballpark. For the first 18 starts of this season it was more of the same but over Latos’ last five starts we’re starting to see some danger signs. Prior to his July 11 start against the Braves, Latos' overall groundball rate was on the climb and his walks were decreasing (earlier this season, Latos went a stretch of five straight starts with less than 2 BB). However, over his last five starts covering just 26 innings, Latos has walked 10 batters and his groundball rate got worse. Latos did post a 1.73 ERA over that span but was greatly aided by a 90% strand rate. His xERA over his last five starts is 4.77. Don’t get us wrong. Latos is a valuable commodity in any park but we’re seeing signs of fatigue. He’s pitched close to 600 innings over the past three seasons and he’s up to 146 this season. Latos has had three short outings (5 innings or less) in three of his past nine starts and the last time he pitched at this park back in mid-June, he was rocked for eight hits and four runs in six frames. That’s when he was sharper than he is right now. The Reds have also dropped four of Latos’ past six road starts.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Travis Wood is not going to dazzle but what he is going to do is give the Cubbies a chance to win almost every time he takes the hill. This kid just keeps getting better. Wood is relentless with his nasty cutter that he keeps pounding down and in and he’ll throw it even when he’s down in the count 3-1 or 2-0. Wood can get into jams by walking too many people (50 walks in 104 frames) but his 3.04 ERA with that many walks confirms just how difficult he is to hit. To take that even further, Wood has a dominant start/disaster start split of 70%/6% and that’s among the best in the game. Wood is on the verge of being an elite starter if he can trim his walk total. He’s been just as good at home (3.16 ERA) as he has been on the road and he’ll face a Cincinnati squad that is 28-32 in the road. As a significant dog in this matchup, Wood and the Cubbies offer up some nice value.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]N.Y. Mets +178 over LOS ANGELES[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[FONT=arial !important]The Dodgers are on a sick run, having won five in a row and 37 of their past 45 games. You almost never want to wager against such a hot club but the overlay on the Mets here is too large to pass up on. New York has won five of their past six games and they’ve also won six of the past eight at Chavez Ravine. Jenrry Mejia comes in as one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game because he’s only made three starts and does not have a great history. However, Mejia is a former top prospect who had his progress derailed by injuries. He missed the first part of this season with forearm tendonitis. Still just 23 years old, Mejia has been awfully impressive since joining the Mets' rotation with 18 strikeouts and just three walks in 18 IP. Mejia features mid-90s raw stuff with plenty of movement and it has resulted in an elite groundball rate of 60% in those three starts. It’s a small sample size but Mejia’s under the surface stats say it is all legit and at this price, he is absolutely worth a wager.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Ricky Nolasco hasn't made it out of the sixth inning in his last five starts. Over that stretch, Nolasco has a troublesome 1.54 WHIP but has been aided by an unsustainable 86% strand rate. While with the Marlins, Nolasco earned a reputation as a pitcher who could never quite deliver on the solid skills he displayed year after year. A change of scenery at age 30 has rejuvenated him somewhat but this is no longer one of the promising arms in the league. Nolasco has plenty of good games left in him but he also has some disasters left too and the Mets have given him nothing but trouble. In fact, Nolasco is winless in his last six starts against the Mets, going 0-2 with a 4.30 ERA.Current Mets have 52 hits in 177 career AB’s against Nolasco for a BA of .294 to go along with a .830 OPS. Indeed the Dodgers are on fire but this is too sweet a price to lay off this very live pup.
[/FONT][/FONT]
[/FONT]
