| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | -6.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 42 | 24 | 0.00 | +53.31 |
| Season to Date | 180 | 171 | 0.00 | +84.43 |
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All plays are for 2 units.
Houston +249 over OAKLAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]There’s an old term used in boxing called a throwaway bet and it refers to a perceived mismatch in the ring in which the dog is taking back a huge price and public gives the underdog no shot to pull the upset. This has that ring to it but those that know this game well know that this is not throwing away money. No, this is a huge, huge overlay that must be played. If Bartolo Colon and the A’s win like expected, so be it but the Astros have at least a 40% chance of winning this game and maybe even a much higher chance than that. The Astros have lost Jordan Lyles last eight starts but over that span Lyles faced the Cubbies in Chicago with the winds blowing out, the L.A. Angels, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Seattle (in the midst of the M’s 9-game winning streak), Toronto, Baltimore and Boston. That’s a difficult stretch of games and now Lyles takes a huge step down in class when facing the feeble offense of the A’s. And it’s not like this kid can’t pitch. Prior to facing that group of offensive powers, Lyles posted a 3.53 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in June, along with an elite 55% groundball rate. His fastball velocity by year continues to be on an uptick: 89.8, 91.8, 92.2 mph. Lyles has legit command and his 3.91 xERA is supported by his skills. At age 22, he remains on a nice growth curve.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Colon is enjoying an excellent season results-wise but his skills do not back up the results. In three starts against the Astros this season, Colon has been solid twice on paper and poor once, yet all of those starts came before July 1. Since then, his skills have really declined. In his last seven starts, Colon has a 4.94 xERA with few strikeouts and more walks than we’re used to seeing out of him. Colon is a pitcher to steer clear of going forward, as his 14-4 record and sub 3.00 ERA has greatly inflated his price tag. Pitchers like Max Scherzer, Matt Harvey, and Clayton Kershaw deserve to be in the price range against the Astros but Bartolo Colon does not. In fact, Colon is a nothing pitcher that has survived on pure luck in much the same way Barry Zito did for about a 1½-seasons for the Giants (Zito is now mopping up in the pen). Huge overlay. [/FONT]
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Milwaukee/TEXAS over 9 +105[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[FONT=arial !important]The Brewers come in here swinging some pretty hot bats right now. They just completed three games in Seattle where they scored 10 times in two of those games and faced King Felix in the other. Milwaukee has scored six runs or more in four of its past eight games in Washington, San Fran and Seattle and those are difficult hitting parks. The Brew Crew now get to face a struggling pitcher in an extreme hitters park. Alexi Ogando has made four starts since coming off the DL on July 23. In those starts covering just 19 frames, Ogando has walked nine batters while striking out just eight. He also has an alarming 33%/49% groundball/fly-ball split, not to mention a 1.55 WHIP over that stretch. The Brewers are almost a sure bet to score at least three times and probably more and the Rangers are likely to take care of the rest.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Marco Estrada just came off the DL to face the Giants in San Fran and while he pitched well, he was on a short leash and was pulled after just 76 pitches. Estrada is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball rate of 20%/60%, which is the highest fly-ball rate in the majors among starters that have thrown at least 50 innings this season. That does not bode well at this park. As a result of that extreme fly-ball profile, Estrada has allowed 14 jacks in 74 innings. Estrada made 12 pre-injury starts, with a 37%/25% quality start/disaster start split, which further highlights his implosion tendencies. Estrada comes in with a .264 BAA and a 4.96 ERA with just six quality starts in 13 attempts. He’s been whacked by just about every strong hitting team he’s faced this season and his chances for success here are slim at best. This one has slugfest written all over it.[/FONT]
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Baltimore/ARIZONA over 9 +109[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[FONT=arial !important]These two combined for 19 hits and 13 runs last night and they combined to score in 10 of the 18 half innings. They figure to do even better here. One of the stalwarts on the surprising 2012 Orioles was Miguel Gonzalez who went 9-4 in their second-half playoff drive. After missing 2008 and 2009 with arm issues, Gonzalez worked his way up the minor league ladder in the Boston system before coming over to Baltimore. His second half this season is not going as well. Gonzalez has posted a disturbing 1.71 WHIP over his last four starts and has been tagged for seven runs over 9.2 innings in his last two starts against the Astros and Padres. Houston knocked him out in the fourth inning after tagging him for nine hits in 3.2 frames. Gonzalez is suffering from a serious skills decline. His groundball rate has decreased to a measly 30% over his last six starts and his fly-ball rate has increased to 41%. That leaves a 29% line-drive rate and no pitcher in the league can survive with a line-drive rate that high. Chase Field is a haven for line-drives and that spells big trouble for Miguel Gonzalez.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Randall Delgado is in just as much trouble as Gonzalez. Delgado has a line-drive rate of 30% over his last four starts. He has been taken yard three times in his last two starts and in the last three games that he started the final scores were 9-8, 7-6 and 10-0 with the D-Backs winning all three. Delgado has greatly benefitted from some serious run support. Delgado has walked just 12 batters in 65 innings this season but that’s uncharacteristic because he could not throw strikes consistently at the minor league level and has walked 68 batters in his 192 major league innings. It’s only a matter of time before that ugly trait shows up again. Delgado is not durable, he gets rattled easily, he has a .290 BAA and allows an equal amount of fly-balls as he does groundouts (35%/35% GB/FB). Two pitchers that are both implosions waiting to happen go at it here and it’s going to be very difficult to keep this one under the posted total.
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Houston +249 over OAKLAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]There’s an old term used in boxing called a throwaway bet and it refers to a perceived mismatch in the ring in which the dog is taking back a huge price and public gives the underdog no shot to pull the upset. This has that ring to it but those that know this game well know that this is not throwing away money. No, this is a huge, huge overlay that must be played. If Bartolo Colon and the A’s win like expected, so be it but the Astros have at least a 40% chance of winning this game and maybe even a much higher chance than that. The Astros have lost Jordan Lyles last eight starts but over that span Lyles faced the Cubbies in Chicago with the winds blowing out, the L.A. Angels, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Seattle (in the midst of the M’s 9-game winning streak), Toronto, Baltimore and Boston. That’s a difficult stretch of games and now Lyles takes a huge step down in class when facing the feeble offense of the A’s. And it’s not like this kid can’t pitch. Prior to facing that group of offensive powers, Lyles posted a 3.53 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in June, along with an elite 55% groundball rate. His fastball velocity by year continues to be on an uptick: 89.8, 91.8, 92.2 mph. Lyles has legit command and his 3.91 xERA is supported by his skills. At age 22, he remains on a nice growth curve.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Colon is enjoying an excellent season results-wise but his skills do not back up the results. In three starts against the Astros this season, Colon has been solid twice on paper and poor once, yet all of those starts came before July 1. Since then, his skills have really declined. In his last seven starts, Colon has a 4.94 xERA with few strikeouts and more walks than we’re used to seeing out of him. Colon is a pitcher to steer clear of going forward, as his 14-4 record and sub 3.00 ERA has greatly inflated his price tag. Pitchers like Max Scherzer, Matt Harvey, and Clayton Kershaw deserve to be in the price range against the Astros but Bartolo Colon does not. In fact, Colon is a nothing pitcher that has survived on pure luck in much the same way Barry Zito did for about a 1½-seasons for the Giants (Zito is now mopping up in the pen). Huge overlay. [/FONT]
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Milwaukee/TEXAS over 9 +105[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[FONT=arial !important]The Brewers come in here swinging some pretty hot bats right now. They just completed three games in Seattle where they scored 10 times in two of those games and faced King Felix in the other. Milwaukee has scored six runs or more in four of its past eight games in Washington, San Fran and Seattle and those are difficult hitting parks. The Brew Crew now get to face a struggling pitcher in an extreme hitters park. Alexi Ogando has made four starts since coming off the DL on July 23. In those starts covering just 19 frames, Ogando has walked nine batters while striking out just eight. He also has an alarming 33%/49% groundball/fly-ball split, not to mention a 1.55 WHIP over that stretch. The Brewers are almost a sure bet to score at least three times and probably more and the Rangers are likely to take care of the rest.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Marco Estrada just came off the DL to face the Giants in San Fran and while he pitched well, he was on a short leash and was pulled after just 76 pitches. Estrada is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball rate of 20%/60%, which is the highest fly-ball rate in the majors among starters that have thrown at least 50 innings this season. That does not bode well at this park. As a result of that extreme fly-ball profile, Estrada has allowed 14 jacks in 74 innings. Estrada made 12 pre-injury starts, with a 37%/25% quality start/disaster start split, which further highlights his implosion tendencies. Estrada comes in with a .264 BAA and a 4.96 ERA with just six quality starts in 13 attempts. He’s been whacked by just about every strong hitting team he’s faced this season and his chances for success here are slim at best. This one has slugfest written all over it.[/FONT]
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Baltimore/ARIZONA over 9 +109[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[FONT=arial !important]These two combined for 19 hits and 13 runs last night and they combined to score in 10 of the 18 half innings. They figure to do even better here. One of the stalwarts on the surprising 2012 Orioles was Miguel Gonzalez who went 9-4 in their second-half playoff drive. After missing 2008 and 2009 with arm issues, Gonzalez worked his way up the minor league ladder in the Boston system before coming over to Baltimore. His second half this season is not going as well. Gonzalez has posted a disturbing 1.71 WHIP over his last four starts and has been tagged for seven runs over 9.2 innings in his last two starts against the Astros and Padres. Houston knocked him out in the fourth inning after tagging him for nine hits in 3.2 frames. Gonzalez is suffering from a serious skills decline. His groundball rate has decreased to a measly 30% over his last six starts and his fly-ball rate has increased to 41%. That leaves a 29% line-drive rate and no pitcher in the league can survive with a line-drive rate that high. Chase Field is a haven for line-drives and that spells big trouble for Miguel Gonzalez.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Randall Delgado is in just as much trouble as Gonzalez. Delgado has a line-drive rate of 30% over his last four starts. He has been taken yard three times in his last two starts and in the last three games that he started the final scores were 9-8, 7-6 and 10-0 with the D-Backs winning all three. Delgado has greatly benefitted from some serious run support. Delgado has walked just 12 batters in 65 innings this season but that’s uncharacteristic because he could not throw strikes consistently at the minor league level and has walked 68 batters in his 192 major league innings. It’s only a matter of time before that ugly trait shows up again. Delgado is not durable, he gets rattled easily, he has a .290 BAA and allows an equal amount of fly-balls as he does groundouts (35%/35% GB/FB). Two pitchers that are both implosions waiting to happen go at it here and it’s going to be very difficult to keep this one under the posted total.
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