[h=1]Top 5 undervalued fantasy TEs[/h][h=3]Brandon Myers among potential values after top-tier TEs are off the board[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
The value of fantasy football tight ends this year flattens out very quickly after Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski are taken off draft boards.
The similar worth of the next tier of tight ends may make it seem like one pick is just as good as another, but this mindset is causing a number of players to be undervalued.
This third part of a four-part series -- the first two parts can be accessed by clicking on the links above -- looks to help fantasy owners benefit from this by identifying some tight ends who fit that undervalued description.
Here are the five most undervalued fantasy tight ends:
[h=3]1. Brandon Myers[/h]
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 110.9
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 11
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 4
Myers scored 97 fantasy points playing in Oakland in 2012, a total that ranked 10th in tight end scoring, and was only six points away from placing in the top seven at the position. His 13.2 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) on 30 targets gave him nearly equal vertical stats to Vernon Davis (25 targets, 340 yards, 13.6 VYPA), and Davis is currently rated as the No. 5 tight end in ADP. (Note: Vertical passes are aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield.)
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Those are impressive numbers, but what makes them more amazing is Myers did this despite battling a shoulder injury and playing on a mediocre Raiders offense. The Giants have long been masters at getting big production out of their tight ends -- as evidenced during their Super Bowl run two years ago -- and should be able to vault Myers to an even higher level in 2013. He has top-five TE potential and can currently be acquired for an 11th-round pick. There might not be a better low cost/high upside candidate in fantasy football this year.
[h=3]2. Jared Cook[/h]
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 116.5
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 12
TFS positional rank: No. 11
Talent is definitely not an issue for Cook. His 14.5 VYPA last year with the Titans ranked ninth among all qualifying tight ends (32 targets to qualify) and placed fourth among tight ends with at least 20 vertical targets. Cook's vertical numbers were even better in 2011, when he racked up 19.8 VYPA on 27 targets.
His main issue in Tennessee was a relative lack of overall targets. It normally takes reaching triple digits in that category to be an impactful fantasy tight end, and his single-season career high in targets is 82. That should change for the better in St. Louis, as the Rams last year directed 85 passes to a no-name group of tight ends. Having a talent the caliber of Cook will raise that number into the triple-digit range, and it gives Cook the potential to post very good TE1 numbers for what amounts to a TE2 cost on draft day.
[h=3]3. Dustin Keller[/h]
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 140.8
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 18
TFS positional rank: No. 10
Keller was a welcome exception on a Jets offense in 2012 that was mediocre or worse in a wide variety of areas. His 8.2 overall YPA was only three-tenths of a yard away from a top-10 ranking in that metric last year.
This season, he joins a Dolphins offense that has a dominant stretch vertical threat in Mike Wallace and a vastly underrated vertical threat in Brian Hartline (12.2 VYPA last season). This downfield passing presence will offer a tremendous number of counterpunch short pass and middle-of-the-field targets for Keller and could easily move him above the 100-target range that serves as the general cutoff point for top-flight fantasy tight ends. He is one of the few lottery picks who has a point floor that all but assures starting-caliber value.
[h=3]4. Coby Fleener[/h]
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 141.0
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 19
TFS positional rank: No. 13
Prior to the 2012 NFL draft, there were many reasons to think Fleener could be every bit as impactful as Graham and Gronkowski. As noted in a pre-draft article I wrote, "Fleener's 6-foot-6, 247-pound frame matches up quite well with Gronkowski (6-6, 265) and Graham (6-6, 260), so he has the physical ability to be just as much of a matchup nightmare as those two. Add in his speed (4.45-second 40-yard dash at his pro day) and his productivity level (a ridiculously high 13.9 YPA on plays on which he was flexed out as a wideout in 2011), and it becomes clear Fleener should be seen through the same early first-round prism [as Graham and Gronkowski]."
Fleener didn't live up to those expectations as a rookie, in part because he was in a Bruce Arians offense that doesn't utilize tight ends in the same way Fleener was utilized at Stanford. That won't be the case this year since Pep Hamilton -- who was the Cardinal's offensive coordinator when Fleener posted those eye-popping totals -- has now taken over that same role for the Colts.
The only thing keeping Fleener from a higher TFS ranking is that he will be splitting targets with Dwayne Allen, but Allen's route-running limitations should keep Fleener as the lead target of this duo. Add in a schedule that my draft guide has listed as being the most favorable tight end schedule in the league, and a fantasy owner would be hard pressed to find a better roster stash candidate.
[h=3]5. Jordan Cameron[/h]
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 170.0
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 22
TFS positional rank: No. 16
Cameron's 7.5 YPA last year landed him in a tie for 25th overall in that category, and was a higher overall YPA than those posted by Jason Witten (7.4), Martellus Bennett (7.4), Antonio Gates (6.9) and Brandon Pettigrew (6.1).
This is not to say that Cameron is a better fantasy candidate than those four, but he does have a lot of things going for him. Benjamin Watson's departure means his 75 targets are going to go elsewhere and Cameron will have dibs on a large number of the inherited passes. The Rob Chudzinski/Norv Turner playbook is the type of tome that looks to throw a lot of long passes to the tight ends, and Cameron's success in this area (17.0 YPA on six medium-depth passes) will give that duo plenty of motivation to see if Cameron can translate those numbers into a higher target volume. This makes him a great deep-league option.
The value of fantasy football tight ends this year flattens out very quickly after Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski are taken off draft boards.
The similar worth of the next tier of tight ends may make it seem like one pick is just as good as another, but this mindset is causing a number of players to be undervalued.
This third part of a four-part series -- the first two parts can be accessed by clicking on the links above -- looks to help fantasy owners benefit from this by identifying some tight ends who fit that undervalued description.
Here are the five most undervalued fantasy tight ends:
[h=3]1. Brandon Myers[/h]
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 11
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 4
Myers scored 97 fantasy points playing in Oakland in 2012, a total that ranked 10th in tight end scoring, and was only six points away from placing in the top seven at the position. His 13.2 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) on 30 targets gave him nearly equal vertical stats to Vernon Davis (25 targets, 340 yards, 13.6 VYPA), and Davis is currently rated as the No. 5 tight end in ADP. (Note: Vertical passes are aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield.)
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Those are impressive numbers, but what makes them more amazing is Myers did this despite battling a shoulder injury and playing on a mediocre Raiders offense. The Giants have long been masters at getting big production out of their tight ends -- as evidenced during their Super Bowl run two years ago -- and should be able to vault Myers to an even higher level in 2013. He has top-five TE potential and can currently be acquired for an 11th-round pick. There might not be a better low cost/high upside candidate in fantasy football this year.
[h=3]2. Jared Cook[/h]
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 12
TFS positional rank: No. 11
Talent is definitely not an issue for Cook. His 14.5 VYPA last year with the Titans ranked ninth among all qualifying tight ends (32 targets to qualify) and placed fourth among tight ends with at least 20 vertical targets. Cook's vertical numbers were even better in 2011, when he racked up 19.8 VYPA on 27 targets.
His main issue in Tennessee was a relative lack of overall targets. It normally takes reaching triple digits in that category to be an impactful fantasy tight end, and his single-season career high in targets is 82. That should change for the better in St. Louis, as the Rams last year directed 85 passes to a no-name group of tight ends. Having a talent the caliber of Cook will raise that number into the triple-digit range, and it gives Cook the potential to post very good TE1 numbers for what amounts to a TE2 cost on draft day.
[h=3]3. Dustin Keller[/h]
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 18
TFS positional rank: No. 10
Keller was a welcome exception on a Jets offense in 2012 that was mediocre or worse in a wide variety of areas. His 8.2 overall YPA was only three-tenths of a yard away from a top-10 ranking in that metric last year.
This season, he joins a Dolphins offense that has a dominant stretch vertical threat in Mike Wallace and a vastly underrated vertical threat in Brian Hartline (12.2 VYPA last season). This downfield passing presence will offer a tremendous number of counterpunch short pass and middle-of-the-field targets for Keller and could easily move him above the 100-target range that serves as the general cutoff point for top-flight fantasy tight ends. He is one of the few lottery picks who has a point floor that all but assures starting-caliber value.
[h=3]4. Coby Fleener[/h]
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 19
TFS positional rank: No. 13
Prior to the 2012 NFL draft, there were many reasons to think Fleener could be every bit as impactful as Graham and Gronkowski. As noted in a pre-draft article I wrote, "Fleener's 6-foot-6, 247-pound frame matches up quite well with Gronkowski (6-6, 265) and Graham (6-6, 260), so he has the physical ability to be just as much of a matchup nightmare as those two. Add in his speed (4.45-second 40-yard dash at his pro day) and his productivity level (a ridiculously high 13.9 YPA on plays on which he was flexed out as a wideout in 2011), and it becomes clear Fleener should be seen through the same early first-round prism [as Graham and Gronkowski]."
Fleener didn't live up to those expectations as a rookie, in part because he was in a Bruce Arians offense that doesn't utilize tight ends in the same way Fleener was utilized at Stanford. That won't be the case this year since Pep Hamilton -- who was the Cardinal's offensive coordinator when Fleener posted those eye-popping totals -- has now taken over that same role for the Colts.
The only thing keeping Fleener from a higher TFS ranking is that he will be splitting targets with Dwayne Allen, but Allen's route-running limitations should keep Fleener as the lead target of this duo. Add in a schedule that my draft guide has listed as being the most favorable tight end schedule in the league, and a fantasy owner would be hard pressed to find a better roster stash candidate.
[h=3]5. Jordan Cameron[/h]
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 22
TFS positional rank: No. 16
Cameron's 7.5 YPA last year landed him in a tie for 25th overall in that category, and was a higher overall YPA than those posted by Jason Witten (7.4), Martellus Bennett (7.4), Antonio Gates (6.9) and Brandon Pettigrew (6.1).
This is not to say that Cameron is a better fantasy candidate than those four, but he does have a lot of things going for him. Benjamin Watson's departure means his 75 targets are going to go elsewhere and Cameron will have dibs on a large number of the inherited passes. The Rob Chudzinski/Norv Turner playbook is the type of tome that looks to throw a lot of long passes to the tight ends, and Cameron's success in this area (17.0 YPA on six medium-depth passes) will give that duo plenty of motivation to see if Cameron can translate those numbers into a higher target volume. This makes him a great deep-league option.
