Service Plays Thursday 8/15/13

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GL!

NFL Week 2 preseason primer: Thursday betting preview
By BRYAN POWER

A look at the essentials for bettors heading into Thursday's action in the NFL, including how long starters are expected to play for each team.

Detroit at Cleveland (Pick, 41)

The Cleveland Browns won their preseason opener, 27-19 at home against the St. Louis Rams. This will be the final preseason home game for first year head coach Rob Chudzinski. Quarterback Brandon Weeden looked good last week, completing 10 of 13 passes for 112 yards and led a pair of scoring drives. Cleveland's starters outscored their St. Louis' counterparts 17-0. A decision on whether or not RB Trent Richardson will play this week will not be made until sometime Wednesday.

Like Cleveland, Detroit won its preseason opener, beating the Jets 26-17. Expect starters for both teams to play about the same amount of time as last week, if not a bit more. This is an annual preseason clash for the "Great Lakes Cup." The road team has won the last two years and Detroit holds a slight 6-5 ATS edge since '02.

Atlanta at Baltimore (-3.5, 41)

Very different results for these teams last week. The Falcons continued their preseason woes with a 34-10 home loss to Cincinnati. They are just 7-14 SU (straight up) in the preseason under Mike Smith. Atlanta has released its official depth chart already. There are major concerns along the offensive line as the team needs a new starting right tackle as Mike Johnson has been lost for the season. Backup quarterback Dominique Davis looked awful last week, completing only 8 of 19 passes for 78 yards and one interception.

Baltimore went to Tampa Bay last week and routed the Bucs 44-16. The defending Super Bowl champs looked very good in doing so. Backup QB Tyrod Taylor completed 13 of 23 passes for 154 yards and two touchdowns, so give the Ravens the edge when the starting quarterbacks leave.

Carolina at Philadelphia (-3, 42)

This will be first year head coach Chip Kelly's last chance to win a home game before the regular season. The Eagles lost last week 31-22 to the Patriots. Obviously, the big story in Philly is the battle for the starting QB job between Mike Vick and Nick Foles. Both threw a touchdown pass last week. It is Foles turn to start this week. It appears as if Kelly will keep his "up-tempo" offense under wraps during the preseason.

Carolina won its preseason opener 24-17 at home over the Chicago Bears in spite of some sloppy play. Quarterback Cam Newton threw a terrible pick six. Rookie running back Kenjon Barner had a pair of fumbles.

San Diego at Chicago (-5, 38)

The San Diego Chargers have a lot of problems. They were beaten at home last week 31-10 by the Seattle Seahawks, which was first year head coach Mike McCoy's debut. There are major injury issues at the receiver position. Danario Alexander is gone for the season with an ACL and Malcom Floyd has a strained knee. I think its going to be a long season here. Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst threw two picks and was sacked three times last week.

The Bears lost Marc Trestman's debut to Carolina last week despite forcing four turnovers. This will be Trestman's debut at Soldier Field. The first string offense ran the ball only once against nine pass plays in the opener. The offensive line allowed seven sacks.

Steve: Golf Picks: Wyndham Championship

Webb Simpson- 14:1
David Toms- 40:1
Rory Sabbatini- 95:1
Carl Pettersson- 60:1
Patrick Reed- 70:1

head to head
Simpson over Garcia -120

PGA heads to North Carolina Thursday
by Steve Bennett

Wyndham Championship

Tees Off: Thursday, August 15
Sedgefield Country Club – Greensboro, NC

Golfer Odds
FIELD (Any other golfer) 11-to-5
Brandt Snedeker 12-to-1
Zach Johnson 15-to-1
Webb Simpson 15-to-1
Sergio Garcia 15-to-1
Bill Haas 18-to-1
Martin Kaymer 25-to-1
Hideki Matsuyama 30-to-1
Jordan Spieth 30-to-1
Tim Clark 40-to-1
Jason Bohn 40-to-1
Paul Casey 40-to-1
Boo Weekley 40-to-1
David Toms 40-to-1
Ernie Els 40-to-1
Rory Sabbatini 50-to-1
Nick Watney 50-to-1
Peter Hanson 50-to-1
Andres Romero 50-to-1
Jimmy Walker 50-to-1
Carl Pettersson 50-to-1
Roberto Castro 50-to-1
Chris Kirk 50-to-1
Robert Garrigus 50-to-1
10 golfers 60-to-1
9 golfers 80-to-1
5 golfers 100-to-1
Geoff Ogilvy 125-to-1
Ryo Ishikawa 150-to-1

The final tune-up before the FedEx Cup Playoffs tees off in North Carolina, as Sedgefield hosts the Wyndham Championship for the sixth consecutive year. This field has its typical lack of star power, but there should be plenty of excitement as the week shapes up as another wide-open shootout. Here are the week’s best bets…

Bill Haas (18/1): Haas seems to have found his footing in an uneven season. Since the beginning of June, he has four top-10's and five top-25's over seven starts (the other two being missed cuts at majors). He’s gone top-10 in two of his past four starts at Sedgefield, including a T7 last year.

Webb Simpson (15/1): The 2011 champion at Sedgefield, Simpson has had a solid summer even though he’s still searching for his first win of 2013. He’s gone top-25 in three of his past five starts, including a T5 at the Travelers. Last year, it looked like he was going to make a run at another title at Sedgefield, opening with a 66-63 before fading to a T22 finish.

Brandt Snedeker (12/1): Snedeker hasn’t quite built off his win at the RBC Canadian three weeks ago, going T33 at the Bridgestone Invitational and T66 at Oak Hill last week. But he has two top-10's at the Wyndham since the tournament moved back to Sedgefield in 2008, and he had a solid T28 finish last year. Seemingly healthy, he’s one of the best in this field. The faster greens installed at Sedgefield last year emphasize the importance of a strong short game, which is Snedeker’s calling card.

Tim Clark (40/1): Last year’s runner-up at Sedgefield, Clark finished two strokes behind Sergio Garcia while shooting a 63 and three 67's. He also posted a T6 here in 2008. Despite a rough summer so far (since a T7 at Colonial, he’s missed two cuts and finished no better than T44 over five starts), he has a shot to contend this week.

Carl Pettersson (50/1): Pettersson has had a rough go of it this year (no top-25's since March), but he has owned Sedgefield in the past. Last year, he opened with a 62 before settling for a T4 finish after three straight 68s. He won in the tournament’s return to Sedgefield in 2008 – his 61 that year still stands as a course record – and he went T4 in 2011.

Insider Angles

NFL Trends & Angles - Preseason Week 2

The first week of the 2013 preseason is in the books, and if you include the Hall of Fame Game two weeks ago, the underdogs are 11-6, 64.7 percent ATS thus far, continuing the Week 1/Halll of Fame week pattern of the previous 13 preseasons and again showing why bettors that refuse to bet on the preseason could be missing out on a gold mine, especially considering that the 11 covering underdogs all won straight up!

The anomaly thus far this preseason has been with totals, as the 'over' is 12-5 after the 'under' performed better in the early weeks the prior 13 years. Do not be surprised if the 'under' has a nice bounce-back week here in Week 2 though with novice bettors flocking to the 'overs' after the Week 1 success and the oddsmakers most likely padding the totals a tad in anticipation of this.

As we said last week, every week of preseason has its own characteristics, and while Week 2 has traditionally been underdog-friendly in general, it has also been a contrarian's dream as a nice profit could have been made over the years simply by playing on teams that lost straight up in Week 1 and against teams that won straight up in Week 1.

We will have more on that in a minute, but first let us take a look at the updated records of the four coaches that have had great preseason records that we recommended last week you should follow throughout the preseason. Right on cue, these coaches went 3-1 both straight up and ATS last week.

Mike Shanahan (Washington Redskins): The Redskins beat the Tennessee Titans as small underdogs in Week 1, bringing Shanahan to 50-23 straight up in preseason with the Denver Broncos and Redskins combined, and his teams are now 31-18-1, 63.3 percent ATS since 2000.

Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): Tomlin was the only coach among the "Big Four" to lose in Week 1 as his Steelers lost to the New York Giants. That still leaves Tomlin at a sparkling 19-7 straight up since becoming Pittsburgh's coach in 2007, and we will have more on him the final week of preseason as he is 6-0 straight up in Week 4.

John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens): Harbaugh and his Super Bowl Champion Ravens destroyed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44-16, making him 14-7 straight up overall since becoming coach of the defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens in 2008, including 13-4 straight up and 11-6, 64.7 percent ATS since 2009.

Jim Schwartz (Detroit Lions): The Lions could have used a nice start this preseason after a miserable regular season last year and they got one with a nine-point win over the New York Jets. Coach Schwartz is now 13-4 straight up and 12-5, 70.6 percent ATS since becoming Detroit coach in 2009.

Moving on to Week 2, this could be the week with the most profit potential of all, and as stated earlier, an inordinately high percentage of Week 2 results since 2000 have been inversely correlated to Week 1.

For example, blindly playing all Week 2 teams ATS coming off of Week 1 straight up losses has gone 118-84-3, 58.4 percent ATS the last 13 years, and teams coming off Week 1 wins are 86-120-1 ATS for a 58.3 percent fade!

Some more specific derivatives of these overall trends follow below. Note that all stated Trends & Angles records both ATS and straight up are since the 2000 preseason.

Play on Week 2 underdogs coming off a straight up loss (67-27-2, 71.3% ATS):
No that is not a misprint, as teams that have lost straight up in Week 1 and are then underdogs in Week 2 have covered at better than a 71 percent clip over 94 decisions in 13 years, and yet people still refuse to bet on preseason! These exhibition games are all about motivation, and in Week 2, teams that lost their openers are usually motivated to put forth a better performance to at the very least gain some peace of mind. Remember that talent means nothing in these games, so this angle even works if the underdog off a loss is among the very worst teams in the league.

Play against Week 2 favorites coming off a straight up win (60-37-1, 61.9% ATS):
This is actually the exact opposite angle as our previous one. Teams that won in Week 1 often feel some sense of contentment getting a preseason win out of the way, and now the coaches can put a greater emphasis on evaluating personnel in Week 2, especially with the regular season dress rehearsal coming up in Week 3. Had the team lost Week 1, then most coaches would have had more of a balance between evaluating players and trying to get a win.

Play on any Week 2 team coming off a straight up loss against a team coming off of a straight up win (67-37-1, 64.4% ATS):
This angle combines the two motivations from our first two angles, except that it applies to all games and not only underdogs, so this is one of our few preseason trends that actually points to some favorites.

Week 2 coaches:

Starting with the Big Four, Shanahan is 9-6 straight up in Week 2 with the Broncos and Redskins, Tomlin is 4-2, Harbaugh is 3-2 and Schwartz is 3-1.

Here are some other notable Week 2 marks.

Jeff Fisher (St. Louis Rams, 10-5): This is Fisher's combined record with the Rams and the Tennessee Titans, and he is 9-6 ATS in these games. Last year was Fisher's first with St. Louis and he beat the Kansas City Chiefs easily 31-17 in Week 2.

Mike Smith (Atlanta Falcons, 1-4): Taking this a step further, Smith is also 1-5 in Week 1 after losing last week and 1-4 in Week 4, but he is 4-1 in Week 3, indicating that the regular season dress rehearsal next week will be the only week he takes seriously.

[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h] [h=2]San Diego at Chicago[/h] The Bears look to bounce back from their 24-17 loss to Carolina in the opener as they host the Chargers on Thursday. Chicago is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-4 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

Three Thursday pitchers who are hot on the road

Looking for some strong road action? Thursday's Major League Baseball schedule features several starters who have been sensational away from their home parks.

Here are three pitchers who don't mind the heat in enemy territory.


Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds (5-2, 2.87 ERA)

The hard-throwing left-hander has been virtually automatic away from Great American Ball Park, posting a 3-1 mark with a 3.02 ERA and a .177 opposition batting average in 10 appearances. Five of his six quality starts on the season have come on the road - including a seven-inning, one-hit gem in his previous road start against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Reds open a four-game set in Milwaukee on Thursday.


Zach Wheeler, New York Mets (5-2, 3.63 ERA)

Wheeler has been good just about everywhere, but the road has been especially kind to the 23-year-old (4-0, 2.21 ERA). He has surrendered more than one earned run in just one of his six road starts so far in 2013, and limited host Arizona to a run on six hits over 6 1/3 innings last time out.

The Mets kick off a four-game series in San Diego on Thursday.


Anthony Rienzo, Chicago White Sox (0-0, 2.95 ERA)

The 25-year-old Brazilian is only three starts into his major-league career, but two of those have come on the road - and they've been spectacular. Rienzo has surrendered just two earned runs in 13 innings away from the Windy City - and his opponents (Detroit, Cleveland) were no slouches at the plate.

The White Sox begin a four-game series in Minnesota on Thursday.

Thursday's American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Thursday's American League games:

Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees

Cold pitching stat: Yankees starter Phil Hughes hasn't won since July 2, and is 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA over his last three starts.

Hot batting stat: New York 2B Robinson Cano is 9-for-26 in his career against Angels starter C.J. Wilson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out of the northwest at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The Yankees are 3-9 in Hughes' home starts.


Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics

Cold pitching stat: Astros starter Erik Bedard is 0-5 over his last seven starts and is 1-6 with a 5.65 ERA in 12 road appearances.

Cold batting stat: Athletics 3B Josh Donaldson is hitting .244 with one home run in 82 at-bats since the All-Star break. Donaldson batted .310 with 16 homers in the first half.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out of the southwest at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 10-4-1 in Bedard's last 15 starts.


Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

Cold pitching stat: Red Sox starter Jake Peavy is 0-3 with an 11.42 ERA over his last four road starts.

Cold batting stat: Blue Jays RF Jose Bautista is 2-for-14 with four strikeouts lifetime against Peavy.

Weather: With partly cloudy skies and temperatures expected to be in the high-60s, the roof should be open at the Rogers Centre in Toronto.

Key betting note: The under is 1-6-1 in Buehrle's last eight home starts.


Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

Hot pitching stat: Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez has been sensational of late, allowing six runs over his last five starts. He has surrendered just one home run in that span.

Hot batting stat: Detroit 3B Miguel Cabrera is 11-for-32 with three home runs in his career versus Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out of the southwest at 11 mph.

Key betting note: Tigers pitchers have allowed an American League-low 41 home runs at home; the Royals have hit an AL-low 39 road homers.


Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays

Hot pitching stat: Tampa Bay starter Alex Cobb is 4-0 with a 3.02 ERA in eight home starts.

Cold batting stat: Rays 3B Evan Longoria has just three multi-hit games since June 23.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: The over is 6-2-1 in Seattle starter Joe Saunders' last nine outings.


Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

Cold pitching stat: Minnesota starter Mike Pelfrey is 1-5 with a 6.52 ERA in nine night starts.

Hot batting stat: White Sox 1B/DH Adam Dunn has six home runs and 12 RBIs in 11 games against the Twins in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be out of the south at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Chicago has averaged just 2.1 runs per game during its nine-game road losing streak.


** Probable starters and weather forecast as of 12:05 p.m. ET.

Thursday's National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Thursday's National League games:

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

Hot pitching stat: Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has thrown four consecutive quality starts, going 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA in that span.

Hot batting stat: St. Louis CF Carlos Beltran is a .282 career hitter with two home runs and 10 RBIs in 39 at-bats against Pirates starter A.J. Burnett.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out of the east at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 8-2 in Lynn's last 10 starts.


San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals

Hot pitching stat: Nationals starter Dan Haren has allowed just three runs on 11 hits over his previous three starts, spanning 21 innings.

Cold batting stat: Giants OF Hunter Pence has just one hit in 13 career at-bats against Haren.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out of the south at 3 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 7-1-2 in San Francisco right-hander Ryan Vogelsong's 10 starts in 2013.


Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Hot pitching stat: Milwaukee right-hander Kyle Lohse is 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA and one home run allowed over his last five starts.

Hot batting stat: Reds OF Jay Bruce is batting .343 with three home runs and nine RBIs in nine games against Milwaukee.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out of the south at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 17-7 in Lohse's 24 starts this season.


New York Mets at San Diego Padres

Hot pitching stat: Mets starter Zach Wheeler is 4-0 with a 2.21 ERA and a .206 opposition batting average in six road starts.

Cold pitching stat: New York C John Buck is homerless since the All-Star break after going deep 14 times in the first half.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out of the southwest at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The Padres are just 8-21 in their last 29 games against a right-handed starter.

** Probable starters, stats and weather forecast as of 1:07 p.m. ET.

Guaranteed Sports Picks

NFLx
UNDER 44 - Panthers / Eagles

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Royals on Wednesday and likes the Cardinals on Thursday.

The deficit is 1420 sirignanos.

Cappers Access

Panthers +3
Bears -6

Cardinals -135

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]San Francisco at Washington[/h] The Nationals look to follow up last night's 6-5 win and take advantage of a San Francisco team that is 4-9 in Ryan Vogelsong's last 13 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Washington is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]Chicago at Seattle[/h] The Storm look to build on their 11-4 ATS record in their last 15 home games. Seattle is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1078-811 (57 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner THURS: Padres -140

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Thursday

Angels over 9

Nationals -160

MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, August 15

National League

Pittsburgh at St. Louis, 1:45 ET
Burnettirates 2-8 SU when Burnett starts on the road in 2013
Lynn: Cardinals 18-8 SU when Lynn starts at home

San Francisco at Washington, 4:05 ET
Vogelsong: Over is 10-5 in Vogelsong's last 15 starts
Haren: Over is 13-5-1 in Nationals' home series finales in 2013

Cincinnati at Milwaukee, 8:10 ET
Cingrani: Under is 8-1 in last eight Reds' road games
Lohse: Under is 8-3 when Lohse starts at home for Brewers

New York Mets at San Diego, 10:10 ET
Wheeler: Mets 5-1 SU when Wheeler starts on the road
Ross: Under is 4-1 in Padres' last five road series openers


American League

Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, 1:05 ET
Wilson: Over is 11-2 in Wilson's 2013 road starts
Hughes: Yankees 4-7 SU in last 11 home day games

Houston at Oakland, 3:35 ET
Bedard: Astros 5-13 SU in a 2013 road series finale
Gray: Athletics 13-3 SU in last 16 home day gamestWINS

Kansas City at Detroit, 7:08 ET
Guthrie: Under is 8-3-1in Guthrie's 2013 road starts
Sanchez: Tigers 17-2 SU in first game of a 2013 home series

Boston at Toronto, 7:07 ET
Peavy: Under is 4-1 in Boston's last five road series finales in Toronto
Buehrle: Blue Jays 7-1 SU in Buehrle's last eight home starts

Seattle at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Saunders: Over is 7-2 in last nine road series finales for Mariners
Cobb: Rays 5-1 SU in last six home series finales

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota, 8:10 ET
Rienzo: White Sox 4-14 SU in first game of a 2013 road series
Pelfrey: Under is 8-3 in last 11 Twins' home series openers