YTD RECORD
33-27 +14.98 Units
ALL SPORTS COMBINED
34-27 +19.98 Units
Happy hump day ladies and gentleman. Coming off a small winning day yesterday and rolling into today with a lot of excitement. Today is a big day for many reasons. As you all know I am almost strictly a 1-3 unit player. I have only played one 5 unit play in baseball this year (it lost) but only release these plays when my system gives me the strongest probability for a team to win. Today we have that scenario once again with the system spitting out an incredible 85% probability of victory for a team. Because of that we will utilize the numbers and take advantage of the huge value that we are getting to make one of my largest plays of the year.
Hope everyone is as fired up as I am and ready to attack the day with some winners!! In addition, I also have two other system plays locked and loaded so lets get to it. As always, feedback and discussion is welcomed. I will be around all day today ready to talk some baseball with everyone.
Detroit -151 (5 units) - Believe it or not being on a heavy favorite is not always a horrible thing. Those of you who know me know that I rarely play heavy favorites but in this particular scenario it is too good to pass up. The public is pounding Detroit today to the tune of 77%. That's OK though because the public has to be right occasionally as well!! Tigers come into this game losing the first two games of the series against the White Sox and 4 out of 5 overall. The best part about that is that we are able to gain value with a smaller than usual number of -151. If Detroit had taken the first two games of the series we would be looking at -175 or higher today.
After Breaking down the numbers it is clear why Detroit is the play today and why my system is giving us such a large win probability. White Sox offense is simply not getting it done this year. Facing RHP this year the Sox are hitting .248 as a team with a .304 OBP and a measly 3.69 runs per game. Meanwhile the Tigers are hitting .270 as a team against LHP with an amazing .342 OBP and 5.09 runs per game. In addition, we have advantages in every major offensive and pitching category as well. Combine that with Detroit's winning road record and Chicago's losing home record and you can see why we are getting such value with this play. No single game in baseball is a sure thing folks and this game isn't either. However the value we are all getting on this game, even at -151, is too good to pass up. I don't see how the Tigers don't get this done today.
Arizona -127 (2 units) - Corbin has been a flat out beast this year. Despite the Orioles having one of the best lineups in the league, they are simply not that effective against LHP. Corbin happens to be one of the leagues best LH pitchers. Breaking it down further, The O's are hitting only .244 on the year against LHP with an atrocious OBP of .291. That simply doesn't get it done and shouldn't today. While Arizona is not an offensive juggernaut themselves, they have a steadier OBP of .317 against RHP and more runs per game and BB/9 than the O's have against LHP. Both pitchers have been solid this year but Tillman has been bailed out a lot more by his hitters than Corbin has. I don't expect the bats to be there for the O's today and expect Corbin to continue his dominance.
Pittsburgh +108 (1 unit) Liriano got shelled during his last outing but has been one of the pleasant surprises of the year in all of MLB. During his last time out against the Cards he held them to only 4 hits over 7 innings and picked up the easy win. Cards most consistent hitter Matt Holliday was also injured for the Red Birds last night and is questionable for today's game. My guess is they give him the night off and take their shot without him which would be good news considering 2 of the 4 hits that Liriano gave up were to Holiday.
That's all I got today. Glad I finally had some time to post write-ups for once. Hope everyone gets on some winners today and makes some cash.
Good Luck Folks :toast:
33-27 +14.98 Units
ALL SPORTS COMBINED
34-27 +19.98 Units
Happy hump day ladies and gentleman. Coming off a small winning day yesterday and rolling into today with a lot of excitement. Today is a big day for many reasons. As you all know I am almost strictly a 1-3 unit player. I have only played one 5 unit play in baseball this year (it lost) but only release these plays when my system gives me the strongest probability for a team to win. Today we have that scenario once again with the system spitting out an incredible 85% probability of victory for a team. Because of that we will utilize the numbers and take advantage of the huge value that we are getting to make one of my largest plays of the year.
Hope everyone is as fired up as I am and ready to attack the day with some winners!! In addition, I also have two other system plays locked and loaded so lets get to it. As always, feedback and discussion is welcomed. I will be around all day today ready to talk some baseball with everyone.
Detroit -151 (5 units) - Believe it or not being on a heavy favorite is not always a horrible thing. Those of you who know me know that I rarely play heavy favorites but in this particular scenario it is too good to pass up. The public is pounding Detroit today to the tune of 77%. That's OK though because the public has to be right occasionally as well!! Tigers come into this game losing the first two games of the series against the White Sox and 4 out of 5 overall. The best part about that is that we are able to gain value with a smaller than usual number of -151. If Detroit had taken the first two games of the series we would be looking at -175 or higher today.
After Breaking down the numbers it is clear why Detroit is the play today and why my system is giving us such a large win probability. White Sox offense is simply not getting it done this year. Facing RHP this year the Sox are hitting .248 as a team with a .304 OBP and a measly 3.69 runs per game. Meanwhile the Tigers are hitting .270 as a team against LHP with an amazing .342 OBP and 5.09 runs per game. In addition, we have advantages in every major offensive and pitching category as well. Combine that with Detroit's winning road record and Chicago's losing home record and you can see why we are getting such value with this play. No single game in baseball is a sure thing folks and this game isn't either. However the value we are all getting on this game, even at -151, is too good to pass up. I don't see how the Tigers don't get this done today.
Arizona -127 (2 units) - Corbin has been a flat out beast this year. Despite the Orioles having one of the best lineups in the league, they are simply not that effective against LHP. Corbin happens to be one of the leagues best LH pitchers. Breaking it down further, The O's are hitting only .244 on the year against LHP with an atrocious OBP of .291. That simply doesn't get it done and shouldn't today. While Arizona is not an offensive juggernaut themselves, they have a steadier OBP of .317 against RHP and more runs per game and BB/9 than the O's have against LHP. Both pitchers have been solid this year but Tillman has been bailed out a lot more by his hitters than Corbin has. I don't expect the bats to be there for the O's today and expect Corbin to continue his dominance.
Pittsburgh +108 (1 unit) Liriano got shelled during his last outing but has been one of the pleasant surprises of the year in all of MLB. During his last time out against the Cards he held them to only 4 hits over 7 innings and picked up the easy win. Cards most consistent hitter Matt Holliday was also injured for the Red Birds last night and is questionable for today's game. My guess is they give him the night off and take their shot without him which would be good news considering 2 of the 4 hits that Liriano gave up were to Holiday.
That's all I got today. Glad I finally had some time to post write-ups for once. Hope everyone gets on some winners today and makes some cash.
Good Luck Folks :toast:
