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[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Jacksonville at NY Jets[/h] The Jets look to bounce back from their 26-17 loss to Detroit in the preseason opener as they host Jacksonville on Saturday. New York is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Jets favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Calgary at BC[/h] The Lions look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games in Week 8 of the season. BC is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: BC (-3). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

Best over/under bets of NFL preseason Week 2

If you’re tackling totals this NFL preseason this week, take a look at which teams lean towards the over or the under during Week 2 of the exhibition schedule.

Records as of 1995.

Best NFL preseason Week 2 over bets

Green Bay Packers (12-5 SU, 13-4 O/U in Week 2)

The Pack finished just 1-3 O/U in the 2012 preseason, but their lone 'over' result was Week 2. Green Bay was shutout 17-0 by the Arizona Cardinals in their disappointing preseason opener a week ago. Needless to say, the Pack had issues offensively, especially running the ball. QB Aaron Rodgers was effective in his one series, an 11-play, 86 yard drive. But it ended in futility after failing to punch the ball in the end zone on fourth-and-goal. The Packers have played over the total in seven-straight Week 2 preseason games. They will travel to St. Louis to face the Rams Saturday. The total is currently 40.5.

Oakland Raiders (5-11 SU, 11-5 O/U in Week 2)

The Raiders are already 1-0 O/U after a 19-17 victory (total of 35.5) over the Dallas Cowboys in their preseason opener. Matt Flynn is on track to be the starting QB to begin the season, but Terrelle Pryor looked good against the Cowboys and gives the offense some different options when he is under center. The Raiders are in New Orleans to battle the Saints Friday. The total is currently 40. 5.

*The Raiders did not have a game in Week 2 in the 1999 preseason.

Best NFL preseason Week 2 under bets

Miami Dolphins (10-7 SU, 6-11 O/U in Week 2)

After a 24-20 loss in the Hall of Fame Game, a result that went 'over' the total, the Dolphins kept the scoreline under the total with a 27-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. QB Ryan Tannehill looked good (5-for-9, 75 yards, one TD) but there is some concern as to why he didn't throw to new WR Mike Wallace - something they may look to remedy. Miami will face the Houston Texans in a Week 2 matchup Saturday. The total is 40.5.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-12 SU, 7-10 O/U in Week 2)

The Chiefs and New Orleans Saints played 'under' the 36.5-point total in Week 1 in a 17-13 Saints victory. The Chiefs offense looked promising going 80 yards on 14 plays in the opening drive. Alex Smith looked great completing 7-for-8 passes for 68 yards in his lone drive. The Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers Friday. The total is currently listed at 40.

CFL

Week 8

Montreal (2-4) @ Saskatchewan (5-1)—Alouettes got whacked 38-13 at home last week by Toronto, losing five fumbles (-6 in TO’s) in their 4th loss in last five games, first since HC Hawkins was fired; Montreal split its two road games, scoring 38-27 points- they blew 24-0 lead in loss at Calgary, and are scoring just 17.5 ppg at home. Roughriders lost first game last week, 42-27 at Calgary (down 26-7 at half); they’re 2-0 as home favorites, winning by 15-37 points. Als are 9-2 in last 11 series games, going 3-1 in last four visits here and also beating Saskatchewan in two Grey Cups, so now that they’re struggling in post-Trestman era, will Riders take out their frustrations? Montreal allowed 34.3 ppg in last three games; their losses this year are by 8-8-11-25 points.

Calgary (5-1) @ BC Lions (4-2)—Lions (+3.5) lost 44-32 in Calgary in season opener, giving up 437 total yards, 200 on ground; BC lost its last three series games, by 20-5-12 points- six of last nine series games went over total. Stamps won eight of last ten visits here- their 34-29 (+6.5) upset win here in LY’s playoffs snapped 2-game skid at this site. Calgary won/covered its last four games, handing Riders their first loss last week; Stamps are 2-1 on road, winning in Montreal (22-14)/Winnipeg (37-24), losing 36-21 in Regina. Lions are 3-0 at home, winning by 8-10-7 points, allowing only 19 ppg; home team covered five of their six games this season. Five of six Calgary games went over total; two of BC’s three home games stayed under.

Football Jesus : BC lions

EPL Top 3: Top 3 goalscoring prop bets

With the Premier League ready to get the ball rolling at the weekend, we take a look at three goalscoring specials offered at Bet365.

Gary Hooper (Norwich) Total Goals

Over 9.5 +100
Under 9.5 -138

Hooper will be making his Premier League debut after his transfer from Scottish giants Celtic. The Englishman netted an impressive 63 goals in his 95 appearances for the green half of Glasgow. If all goes according to the Canaries' plan, his strike partnership with fellow newcomer Ricky van Wolfswinkel will develop into a feared one in the clubs' 4-4-2 formation.

Roberto Soldado (Tottenham Hotspur) Total Goals

Over 14.5 -120
Under 14.5 -120

White Hart Lane and supporters of the North London club can rest easy now that Spurs have made the purchase of a legit goalscoring machine. Soldado comes over from La Liga side Valencia where he'd bagged 59 goals in the previous three seasons in Spain including 24 a season ago. According to the Daily Mail, Soldado vows to score 20 for Tottenham in the upcoming campaign.

Robin van Persie (Manchester United) Total Goals

Over 21.5 -120
Under 21.5 -120

The Dutchman was the Premier League's leading scorer a year ago having tallied 26 goals in his first season at Man United and also the top scorer the season before when he netted 30 for Arsenal. The Red Devils' hitman is reliably healthy having not missed a match the past two seasons and always a vital cog in Man U's attack having scored 30 percent of the clubs' goals a year ago.

UFC 163 betting prevew: Jose Aldo vs. Chan Sung Jung
By MMAODDSBREAKER

Preview written by Adam Martin from MMAOddsbreaker

UFC 163
HSBC Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Saturday, August 3, 2013

UFC Featherweight Championship Bout: Jose Aldo (-750) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+600)

Fight Breakdown: The main event of UFC 163 is a five-round bout for the UFC featherweight championship between reigning champ Jose Aldo and challenger “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung. Aldo is currently a massive favorite at -750 (bet $750 to win $100), while Jung is a big +600 underdog at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Aldo (22-1) is the long-time UFC featherweight champion, having defended the belt he first won at WEC 44 a total of six times, four times in the UFC (over Frankie Edgar, Chad Mendes, Kenny Florian and Mark Hominick) and twice in the WEC as well (over Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan). The 26-year-old is an incredible striker, easily the best at 145 pounds and maybe the best in the world, as he’s able to use a dazzling combination of strikes from all eight limbs to put his opponents to sleep, and he has 13 career knockouts to show for it. He also has impeccable takedown defense. Currently riding a 15-fight win streak, Aldo hasn’t really been challenged by any of his competitors outside of Hominick in the fifth round of their UFC 129 bout, and considering he seems to be improving from bout to bout, he’s a scary, scary man. Fighting in front of his hometown fans this weekend, Aldo wants a knockout of Jung. And he’s likely to get it.

Jung (13-3) is currently riding a three-fight win streak in the UFC, with a “Fight of the Year” and “Submission of the Year” win over Dustin Poirier at UFC on FUEL TV 3, a “Knockout of the Night” win over Hominick at UFC 129, and another “Submission of the Year” over Leonard Garcia at UFC Fight Night 24. The 26-year-old is rapidly improving and with knockout power in his hands, fantastic submissions, and the ability to walk forward and be aggressive, he’s been a tough out for other featherweights in the UFC. But before he came to the UFC he lost a war with Garcia and was knocked out by George Roop, so it’s possible he’s been overachieving in the Octagon. As well, Jung took this fight with Aldo on short notice after Anthony Pettis pulled out of the fight with an injury. Having not fought since May of 2012, he’ll likely exhibit signs of ring rust against Aldo. Against Aldo, you can’t make a single mistake. So unless he fights a flawless fight, Jung is in trouble.

Fight Prediction: Outside of a fluke punch, I just don’t see how The Korean Zombie wins this fight. Aldo is one of the most devastating strikers in all of mixed martial arts and going up against a guy like Jung who typically offers up little to no defense in his fights. This one has all the makings of a highlight-reel knockout. Whether it’s by punches, elbows, kicks, knees, or maybe even of a combination of all of them. Aldo is going to win this fight, and he’s going to win it by knockout to once again defend the UFC featherweight championship and re-affirm his place as one of the pound-for-pound greats in the sport.

Adam’s Pick: Jose Aldo via T/KO (click for latest MMA odds)

Adam’s Recommended Play: With the moneyline on Aldo being so high, I believe the best way to attack this fight from a betting perspective is with props. My colleague Luca Fury recommended a bet on Aldo by TKO (currently -170), but personally I would play it safer and just go with Aldo wins inside the distance (currently -250) in case of a submission or DQ win for Aldo. Better yet, in case you want to play it super safe, go with the fight doesn’t go the distance prop, which is currently -400, or the total of UNDER 3.5 rounds, which is currently -220, just in case there’s a fluke finish by Jung.

English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Premier League football is back!

There is a full slate of fixtures on-tap as Premier League clubs begin their quest for glory.

We talked to Aron Black at Bet365 to get some input about the betting action for a few of Saturday's matches.

Here is a look at what's on-tap for the opening day of the Premier League season:

Liverpool v Stoke (-250, +380, +850)

Why bet Liverpool: The Reds open at home, in the comfortable confines of Anfield, where they have never lost to the Potters. In the 45 matches the clubs have played in Liverpool, the Reds have 35 wins and 10 draws. The dust appears to have settled on the Luis Suarez saga and rumors are that the Uruguayan will stay for at least one more season. Suarez will miss the opening six matches of the season as he continues to serve a 10-match ban for biting an opponent last season. Manager Brendan Rodgers will probably start a front-three of Coutinho, Sturridge and new signing Iago Aspas. It's still a threatening three, even without Suarez.

Why bet Stoke: With the sacking of Tony Pulis, the physical, bullish approach to the game that the club has played for years looks to be a thing of the past. Mark Hughes is the man responsible to usher in a new era of Stoke football. The Potters have managed to hold the Reds off the scoresheet in the previous two meetings at Anfield. Trouble is, they haven't scored in either match as well with both the 2011 and 2012 fixture resulting in a 0-0 draw.

Key betting note: Liverpool is undefeated in their previous six home matches (in all competitions) against the Potters.

2012-13 fixture result: Liverpool 0, Stoke 0

Where the action is: "The home fave Liverpool sees their support, however at +850 Stoke is the most popular underdog for this Saturdays games."


Arsenal v Aston Villa (-250, +420, +750)

Why bet Arsenal: No club finished hotter than Arsenal last season. After a 2-1 loss at Tottenham Hotspur, the Gunners closed the season with eight wins and two draws in their final 10 matches. The side remains virtually unchanged as the London club and manager Arsene Wenger have yet to make a splash in the transfer market.

Why bet Aston Villa: The Villains figure to be a young, exciting club this season. With 19 goals, striker Christian Benteke was the fourth leading scorer in the league last campaign and will look to improve on that total.

Key betting note: There have been over 2.5 goals scored in each of Villa's previous 11 away matches.

2012-13 fixture result: Arsenal 2, Aston Villa 1

Where the action is: "All the action on this one is on the over 2.5 goals at -175. Arsenal are always a popular bet for over the goals, and given the expectation of this game being a pretty open affair, its not a surprise to see the action being well weighted to the over"


Norwich v Everton (+220, +240, +140)

Why bet Norwich: The East Anglia club made some savvy business moves in the transfer window bringing in a pair of strikers (Ricky van Wolfswinkel and Gary Hooper) and a great, young box-to-box midfielder in Leroy Fer. The Canaries' biggest issue last year was their goalscoring and both Hooper and van Wolfswinkel should remedy that.

Why bet Everton: Former Wigan boss Roberto Martinez takes over managerial duties at Everton after David Moyes replaced Alex Ferguson at Manchester United. Martinez will look to get off to a flying start away from Goodison Park. The Toffees finished sixth in the table a year ago and were a strong defensive unit away from home, conceding just 23 goals in their away matches.

Key betting note: Norwich has scored at least two goals in each of the previous four meetings with Everton.

2012-13 fixture result: Norwich 2, Everton 1

Where the action is: "The popular play is on over 2.5 at +100. The Canaries have seen a couple of decent arrivals that should provide goals in Gary Hooper and Ricky van Wolfswinkel and Martinez would love to get his season off in style by scoring at least a couple of goals away from home."


Sunderland v Fulham (+125, +240, +250)

Why bet Sunderland: Sunderland hired gaffer Paolo Di Canio toward the end of last season and he prevented relegation and defeated bitter rivals Newcastle. Now, he gets a full season from the get-go and a plethora of new signings at his disposal. Emanuele Giaccherini, Jozy Altidore, Vito Mannone and Mobido Diakité headline the facelift at the Wearside club.

Why bet Fulham: The Cottagers finished last season in poor form and will look to jump out to a steady start in 2013-14. New signing Adel Taarabt (on loan from QPR) gives Fulham a tricky dribbler and a player who can instantly create scoring chances . Going forward, the club was Dimitar Berbatov and not much else, so the Moroccan will add a different wrinkle to the Fulham attack.

Key betting note: There were under 2.5 goals in Sunderland's last five home matches in 2012-13.

2012-13 fixture result: Sunderland 2, Fulham 2


West Brom v Southampton (+140, +240, +220)

Why bet West Brom: The Baggies are coming off a great campaign, but top goalscorer Romelu Lukaku returns to Chelsea after his season-long loan. How will West Brom replace the striker's 17 goals? Well, they went out and added Nicolas Anelka and has impressed since joining the club. Also, they have added the services of Championship player of the year (while with Watford) Matej Vydra who joins from parent club Udinese.

Why bet Southampton: Southampton will be a different club defensively this season with the addition of CB Dejan Lovren and CM Victor Wanyama. The pair instantly improves the spine of the Saints' formation as the club looks to improve on their 60 goals conceded one year ago.

Key betting note: There have been over 2.5 goals scored in five of West Brom's previous six home matches.

2012-13 fixture result: West Brom 2, Southampton 0


West Ham v Cardiff (-110, +260, +300)

Why bet West Ham: The London club has made great strides to improve on its 10th place finish a year ago. Andy Carroll is now a Hammer after a season-long loan and makes the perfect target-man in Sam Allardyce's long-ball system. Liverpool-bust Stewart Downing also joins the Hammers and will immediately plug into wing and provide service for the aforementioned Carroll. If Carroll doesn't get the start due to his injury, Mobido Maiga will be the Hammers' striker.

Why bet Cardiff: The Welsh side has been aggressive in the transfer market strengthening the squad for life in the Premier League. Steven Caulker comes in from Tottenham and will anchor the back four. Chilean Gary Medel joins the club from Spanish side Sevilla and should prove to be the calming influence in midfield.

Key betting note: West Ham went undefeated in its last five home matches to close out the 2012-13 Premier League season.

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Where the action is: "The Hammers are seeing the bulk of the action here. Premiership newcomers Cardiff will find it tough to play at a very boisterous Upton Park, and West Ham have added to their squad to make them stronger."


Swansea v Manchester United (+300, +250, +105)

Why bet Swansea: The Swans have been tipped by many as the top club outside of the Big 6. They have made some nice signings over the past couple of seasons including goalscoring threat Wilfried Bony. The club has a tough task ahead of it, but the Swans will play their brand of attractive, free-flowing football and attack the Man United defense with style.

Why bet Manchester United: The opening match for the defending champs is a big one. David Moyes has taken over as manager after the legendary Sir Alex Ferguson stepped down as gaffer of the club and would like to get three points right off the bat. We'll see just how much the Wayne Rooney soap opera has effected the club and coach.

Key betting note: Swansea concluded the 2012-13 campaign conceding at least two goals in eight of its final 10 matches.

2012-13 fixture result: Swansea 1, Manchester United 1

Where the action is: "Man United is seeing the most action of any team for the first day of the new Premiership season. Not a surprise to see them being backed, however, it’s a brave price to back for an away fave on the first weekend."

CFL Saturday: What bettors need to know

Montreal Alouettes at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-11.5, 54)

The Saskatchewan Roughriders will try to rebound from their first loss when they host the floundering Montreal Alouettes on Saturday. The Roughriders would like to avoid the tailspin they found themselves in last year, when they lost five straight after winning their first three. One area in which Saskatchewan needs to improve to regain its winning form is on the offensive line, which allowed four sacks on quarterback Darian Durant last week after only allowing seven over the first five games.

The Alouettes face much more serious problems following a 38-13 rout at the hands of the rival Toronto Argonauts and the news that slotback Jamel Richardson will miss the remainder of the season because of a knee injury. General manager Jim Popp replacing coach Dan Hawkins on the sidelines has done little to reverse Montreal’s fortunes, while veteran quarterback Anthony Calvillo will have one less option available as he tries to salvage what is looking like his worst season in more than 10 years. Calvillo is completing 59 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and five interceptions.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (2-4): Rookie Tyron Carrier, who returned a punt 78 yards for a touchdown in Week 1, will get another chance to return kicks for Montreal after running back Noel Devine fumbled three times in the loss to Toronto. Linebackers Chip Cox, Kyries Hebert and Shea Emry lead the team in tackles, sacks and interceptions, respectively, but Montreal’s defense is prone to losing focus for large portions of time. It surrendered three touchdowns to Argonauts quarterback Ricky Ray in a little over one quarter last week.

ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (5-1): Running back Kory Sheets has a remarkable 845 rushing yards through six games, on pace to shatter the CFL single-season record of 2,065 yards set by Mike Pringle in 1998. Veteran slotback and all-time CFL receiving yards leader Geroy Simon has adjusted well to his new team, catching nine passes for 194 yards and one touchdown over his first three games. Durant’s favorite target has been slotback Weston Dressler, who has 387 receiving yards, while slotback Chris Getzlaf has five touchdown catches.

TRENDS:

* The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Saskatchewan.
* The over is 8-3 in Roughriders' last 11 games overall.
* Roughriders are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games in August.
* Alouettes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Saturday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Montreal’s defense has allowed 177 points - second-most in the league.

2. Durant has yet to throw an interception.

3. Saskatchewan is 2-0 at home, where the 101st Grey Cup final will be played Nov. 24.


Calgary Stampeders at B.C. Lions (-3, 54)

The BC Lions might have a little revenge in mind Saturday when they host the Calgary Stampeders, who defeated them at BC Place in last year’s West Division final and again in Calgary in Week 1. The Lions are 3-0 at home this year, but if any team can ruin that record, it’s the red-hot Stampeders. Calgary has won four in a row and knocked off the division-leading Saskatchewan Roughriders 42-27 last week on the strength of four rushing touchdowns from running back Jon Cornish.

The Lions, who are coming off a bye week, have scored only 143 points and quarterback Travis Lulay has yet to throw for more than 300 yards in a game, leaving extra pressure on running back Andrew Harris, who was limited to 56 rushing yards in BC’s last contest. Calgary’s defense limited Harris to 20 yards on five carries in Week 1 and will try to do the same Saturday, with defensive lineman Charleston Hughes (five sacks) leading the charge. Veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn is likely to start for the Stampeders.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (5-1): Cornish, who ran for 172 yards against the Lions in Week 1, has seven rushing touchdowns, on pace to eclipse the career-high of 11 he set last year. Glenn has completed 65-of-90 passes filling in for starter Drew Tate, who suffered a setback in his recovery from an elbow injury. Veteran slotback Nik Lewis leads Calgary’s receiving corps with 381 yards on 31 catches. Offensive lineman Dimitri Tsoumpas suffered a concussion last week, joining Tate on the injured list.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-2): Wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux is embracing his return to the CFL following a two-year absence, averaging 20.2 yards per catch and leading BC with 384 receiving yards. Slotbacks Nick Moore (357) and Courtney Taylor (235) are also key contributors to the receiving corps. Linebacker Solomon Elimimian leads the team with 29 tackles as the Lions’ defense has surrendered more than 21 points in only two games - both losses.

TRENDS:

* The over is 14-2 in Stampeders last 16 games overall.
* The Stampeders are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in BC.
* The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four Saturday games.
* The under is 7-1 in the Lions' last eight games in August.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Cornish was named offensive player and Canadian player of the week after his performance against Saskatchewan.

2. Lulay has 193 rushing yards, while Calgary’s quarterbacks have combined for 95 yards on the ground.

3. The Lions have won their last nine regular-season home games.

MLB Top 3: Hot "under" pitchers on the mound Saturday

Saturday's Major League Baseball action features three road aces that have trended heavily toward under totals.

Here is a look at three pitchers to consider if you're looking to play totals.

Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees (11-7, 2.33 ERA)

Kuroda has been the hottest pitcher in the American League over the past month and a half, surrendering just five earned runs over 48 innings in that span. Five of those outings have seen the 38-year-old leave without giving up a run, and he's on a streak of nine consecutive 'unders' dating back to the end of June.

The Yankees visit the Boston Red Sox on Saturday.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (6-9, 2.83 ERA)

Wins continue to elude the former No. 1 pick, but he remains a boon for 'under' bettors. The 25-year-old is on a five-game 'under' streak, having surrendered just 10 runs in that span. His last outing was the best of all, as he went the distance on a four-hit shutout while striking out 10 in a win over Philadelphia.

The Nationals face the Braves in Atlanta on Saturday.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (11-7, 1.88 ERA)

When you sport the major leagues' lowest ERA among qualified starters, you're going to be in plenty of low-scoring games. Such is the case for Kershaw, who has gone 'under' in seven of his last nine outings - registering a quality start in each of them, and going eight or more innings six times in that span.

The Dodgers travel to Philadelphia for a date with the Phillies on Saturday.

MMA long term betting trends: Five-round non-title fights
By MMAODDSBREAKER

The UFC ‘Fight Night’ series returns this coming Saturday as the organization plays a key role in launching the Fox network’s new sports channel, Fox Sports 1. A total of six hours of live UFC fights will air in an effort to bring attention to the new station.

The card will be headlined by a group of UFC fighters who are no stranger to the spotlight, and should succeed in creating some buzz for the event. While former WEC champion Urijah Faber and former Strikeforce champion Alistair Overeem will certainly bring in some viewers, the real heavy hitters on this card are the two men in the main event, former UFC light heavyweight champion Mauricio Rua and multiple time middleweight title challenger Chael Sonnen. Those two will square off in a five round light heavyweight fight, still a relatively new phenomenon for the UFC when it comes to non-title bouts.

Since the organization made the decision to start putting on five round main events when a title wasn’t on the line, there have only been 22 fights contested as such. Not the largest sample size, but certainly worth a deeper look. Check out the figure below for the closing odds and results from these bouts.

UFC 5 Round Non-Title

The basics read as follows:

Favorites have won 13 of 22 fights.
Underdogs have won 8 of 22 fights.
One fight (Vitor Belfort vs. Luke Rockhold) was a pick em as the lines closed.
Only four of these bouts have gone to decision, the other 18 have all finished inside the distance.
Of the 18 finishes, only three (Chan Sung Jung over Dustin Poirier, Mauricio Rua over Brandon Vera, and Urijah Faber over Scott Jorgensen) have occurred in the extra rounds.


The numbers go further than that, however. When examining the closing lines at 5Dimes Sportsbooks for each of these fights, favorites were expected to win 14.13 fights compared to their actual number of 13 showing a slight under-performance. Underdogs have been expected to only win 7.28 bouts, which means the 8 plus-money victories have been slightly more than the market has expected. Still, the actual wins being so close to the expected number indicates that both oddsmakers and the public have a pretty good read on these five rounders.

What that means as far as the moneyline goes for Sonnen and Shogun on Saturday night is that the fight truly can go either way. Sonnen can win with his brand of wrestling and high volume ground and pound. Conversely, Shogun could add yet another stoppage to his long list of finishes. Interestingly, despite his finishing prowess, Shogun is one of the few fighters who has seen the final bell in a five round non-title, and chances are if he goes 25 minutes again here, he’ll probably end up on the wrong end of the scorecards.

Speaking of scorecards, or a lack thereof, that’s really where the intriguing trends come in to play. As mentioned earlier, only four of 22 five round non-title bouts have gone to decision, a mere 18%. Unfortunately, archived odds are only available for fights going the distance back to UFC on Fox 3 (Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller). That spans the most recent 16 fights, only two of which have gone to decision.

Looking at the odds for those fights to go the distance, and 5.67 were expected to see the scorecards, while 11.19 were expected to be stopped. Clearly, fans and oddsmakers alike are undervaluing the effect those two extra rounds have on fights being finished. In fact, more fights have been finished in the extra rounds (3) than have gone to decision (2) since odds have been available to track such things.

How this effects Sonnen/Rua is far more interesting that trying to examine the moneyline. Currently the line sits at -120 for the fight to go the distance (54.55% chance) and -110 to be finished (52.38% chance). There have only been two other instances where a five round non-title bout has been favored to go to decision, and both of those bouts were finished in the second round. As far as these competitors go: in 28 career fights, Rua has only gone to decision five times (including three times in seven defeats). Meanwhile, Sonnen has seen 18 decisions in 41 career bouts, but only once in a losing effort.

The trend would seem obvious. If Sonnen wins, he is most likely going to do it by decision, whereas a Rua win likely comes by stoppage. The only problem for Sonnen in that line of thinking, is that he has already competed in four bouts scheduled for five rounds in his career, and he has been stopped before the final bell each time. For a fighter like Chael Sonnen, who has a tendency to implode, 25 minutes is an extremely long time to survive against an opponent the caliber of Mauricio Rua, even with his well-documented cardio issues.

Given the history of fights similar to this one, as well as the track record of the individuals involved, this is actually a difficult fight to bet. A case can be made for either fighter from a style perspective, and it could end early with a Shogun KO or go to decision with Sonnen using his wrestling effectively for the duration. Even the props for each fighter by their likely method of victory don’t offer a whole lot of value. Unless you have an extremely strong lean in this fight, it could be one to stay away from entirely.

NFL preseason primer: Saturday game betting breakdown
By BRYAN POWER

A game-by-game look from the bettor's perspective of all of Saturday's NFL preseason games.

Dallas at Arizona (-3, 41)

This will be the Cowboys' third game of the preseason. After pulling off an outright win in the Hall of Fame Game, they lost last week in Oakland, 19-17, on a short week. After sitting out the HOF Game, QB Tony Romo played two series against the Raiders, one of them resulting in a field goal. However that drive also started at the Oakland 16. Romo was actually better on the second drive, which resulted in a blocked field goal. Dallas' special teams were not good overall in the loss.

One of the big storylines in Cardinals camp right now is the play of rookie Tyrann Mathieu. The "Honey Badger" will get his 1st start Saturday afternoon after impressing teammates and coaches alike in practice. Arizona won its preseason opener, shutting out Green Bay 17-0. As you can probably guess, the defense was quite impressive as it forced a fumble, had one interception and three sacks. The kicking game was not good as the team was just 1-for-4 on field goal attempts.


Tennessee at Cincinnati (-2.5, 41)

The Titans lost last week at home to the Redskins, 22-21. That said, they did lead 14-7 at the end of the first quarter and rushed for 92 yards, 58 of them coming on a Chris Johnson touchdown. QB Jake Locker looked okay, completing 7 of 11 passes for 58 yards, but was sacked twice and the first team offense went three and out on the opening drive. He played most of the first half last week and should do so again here.

Locally, this game will be blacked out as it did not sell out. That's too bad because the Bengals look like they could be a very good team in 2013. They won the preseason opener 34-10 at Atlanta. I really like rookie running back Giovanni Bernard, who will split time with incumbent Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Josh Johnson and John Skelton gave the team strong QB play last week behind starter Andy Dalton.


Jacksonville at NY Jets (-2.5, 38.5)

The prognostications for both of these teams is rather bleak in 2013. The big story here is that for a second straight week, the Jets will go with Mark Sanchez as the starter after head coach Rex Ryan called Geno Smith's performance in 11 on 11 drills Wednesday "brutal". Sanchez was his usual self last week, throwing a pick-six and a touchdown pass. Smith went 6-of-7 for 47 yards, but did not lead any scoring drives in the team's 26-17 loss at Detroit.

Jacksonville was clobbered 27-3 last week at home by Miami in new head coach Gus Bradley's debut. Blaine Gabbert looked as awful as ever, completing only five passes for 19 yards, though his teammates offered little assistance, dropping two passes. Chad Henne completed 8 of 11 passes for 87 yards and looked better. Receiver Justin Blackmon was taken to the locker room following an on the field outburst.


Miami at Houston (-3, 41)

This will be the third preseason game for the Dolphins, who lost the Hall of Fame Game, but came back and clobbered the Jaguars last week. After taking just 10 snaps in the opener, QB Ryan Tannehill was more effective against Jacksonville, completing five of nine passes and one touchdown. Last week was Miami's first ever preseason win in six tries under head coach Joe Philbin. The depth chart is expected to be the exact same as last week.

Houston won its preseason opener last week on the road, beating Minnesota 27-13. Rookie receiver DeAndre Hopkins made an exciting touchdown grab and has the coaching staff excited that they finally may have found the compliment to Andre Johnson. A number of Texans starters did not play last week, including RB Arian Foster, DE JJ Watt, LB Brian Cushing, S Ed Reed and Johnson. Cushing will play here for sure. There is a battle for the backup QB job between TJ Yates and Case Keenum. Keenum will play second string Saturday.


Green Bay at St. Louis (-4.5, 40)

After being shutout at home in their opener, 17-0 by the Cardinals, the Packers will be looking to bounce back this week. A number of players (17 in all!) did not dress last week due to injury. QB Aaron Rodgers played one series and led his team down to the goal line where they could not punch it in. Backup Graham Harrell saw most of the work last week.

St. Louis was openly mocked by Browns color commentator Bernie Kosar last week, but actually had a chance to tie the game late. Still though, their starters were outscored 17-0. A couple key coaching trends here as Packers coach Mike McCarthy is 20-9 Over in all preseason games while Rams coach Jeff Fisher is 3-0 ATS all-time in the preseason with at least eight days rest.


Denver at Seattle (-4.5, 41)

I'm tempted to call this a "Super Bowl Preview" as right now if you made me pick, these would be my predicted AFC and NFC Champs. Both teams won last week on the road against a division foe of the other. Seattle pulled away from San Diego late, winning 31-10, while Denver won an ugly 10-6 game at San Francisco.

I would not expect Peyton Manning or Russell Wilson to play much here. Manning played just one series last week. The Broncos were fortunate to win the game as they finished with a +4 edge in turnovers.

DAVE ESSLER Saturday MLB Thoughts

Cardinals-Cubs: At one time both pitchers were all about being played on. I suppose given that the Cardinals have struggled this year against lefties, I'd have to lean Woodhere. My only caveat is that Kelly was just hit pretty hard by the Cubs, and the Cardinals are one team that's hit Wood well. Perhaps the square over in this one, given that neither team has a bullpen.

Miami-Giants: Have to think this game stays under. Best bullpen probably wins, and that would be the Giants, usually. Cain has been pitching well, and this is one game I will most assuredly wait for lineups in. Obviously each team has a couple of players that really matter, and if anyone's resting it could change things.

Arizona-Pittsburgh: I've always like to back Cahill away from Arizona, and really wonder whether Locke has run his course, or he gets back closer to where he was a month ago. But, it's always tough to take a pitcher coming off the DL or any pitcher after a layoff, so I suspect the Pirates may be favored by more than they should for that very reason. Lean under a little, since neither pitcher can hit. I remember well recently how Locke couldn't even bunt, so I can see taking Arizona here, perhaps.

Dodgers-Phillies: Clearly Kershaw is going to be too expensive for me to take as a road ML favorite, but certainly not someone I'd fade, either. Kendrick has given up a ton of runs and perhaps more importantly to me a ton of flyball outs, so this well could be the Dodgers RL, especially given that they're assured nine at bats.

Reds-Brewers: Latos always burns me, and so does Gallardo. But, Gallardo has also had two weeks off w.a hamstring issue, so it might be tough to try and take the cool home dog here, not to mention the Reds have pretty much had their way with him over the years. The interesting thing about Latos' recent success is that most of it has been against very weak teams. With that in mind, and both pitchers can hit, I may think about the over in this one.

Nationals-Braves: Obviously the marquee pitching matchup of the day, and we simply don't take the Nationals against left handed pitchers. Usually. Minor DOES give up a lot of long outs and can get away with it in the big stadium. This may be the best value on Strasburg, but the Braves have had as much success against him as anyone. With Uggla out (who hits Strasburg) I may think about doing the unthinkable here and taking Washington.

Mets-Padres: I simply cannot back Volquez under any circumstances. He can make a AA team look good if they have any patience to wait for strikes to be thrown. Almost do not care who the Mets pitcher is.

Yankees-Boston: Well, two mortal enemies and two pitchers than can be good or bad. Kuroda beat Boston back in late July, so either he's got no problem in Fenway, Boston has revenge, or that was a different Boston team. I tend to think a bit of all three. Lackeys' shown he's human since the AS break, and I remember saying when I watched him pitch against Houston that I'd fade him from now on against good hitting teams w/patience. That would be the Yankees, so for that reason, and if New Yorks' pen is straightened out Friday, we may got their.

Royals-Tigers: Well the Tigers showed signs of vulnerability losing to Duffy, and part of me wonders if, with Verlander, that doesn't play on their minds a bit. You guys know I won't lay -200 anyway, and even the RL against a team that CAN hit RHP pretty well, isn't an option, so Royals RL or nothing, but I hate Wade Davis. Well, I do not know Wade Davis, I just don't like betting on him. Royals pen pretty slick this season, so perhaps under.

Toronto-Tampa Bay: Against Happ I actually thought this line would be higher. Perhaps, given that the Rays typically beat left handed pitchers, this is a trap of sorts. Fausto has kind of been Fausto the last few times out, and always gives up SOME. For some unknown reason, that line makes me want to take Toronto. Anytime Happ pitches I want to take the over, but in the Trop I learned my lesson (again) and we shall wait this one out.

White Sox-Twins: OK, who wouldn't jump on Sale against the Twins, even if the game were played on Mars. At -110 I could do two things. Fire it now, or actually look at the game and Albers. Clearly he's not throwing another two-hit shutout, or maybe he is, but for now the only play here is under.

Seattle-Texas: First we'll wait and see how the Mariners fare in the heat, but we like to fade them versus LHP. And of course we don't typically fade Felix. However, they've seen so much of him over the years that there are no surprises. They've had some success, as much as most teams, so I would not rule out the Rangers at home at that price. I do go back to the fact that Seattle should have beaten Price last week. Another one (game) that Friday's game has a big bearing on for me.

Houston-Angels: Well Kuechel has got a bad rap, but any LHP these days take Josh Hamilton out of the equation. Richards has been great, but as a reliever turned starter I keep waiting for the middle inning meltdown, and subsequent inclusion of the Angels terrible bullpen. I am not laying -200 on a team that has 20 players that have quit and is about to call up their entire AAA team anyways, so the Angels RL is out of the question. Have to lean under here, which is always scary when Kuehel pitches, but at the opening of 8.5u (-120) that seems to be the trend, meaning there's probably no rush, if you like the over, to get it before 9.

Cleveland-Oakland: Since the A's ARE (can be) a patient team, I can't take Cleveland with Ubaldo, period. It's not unlike betting on Volquez. Only the Angels and Texas have done much damage to Straily, who the Indians haven't seen at all, so in the big park, advantage Oakland from start to finish, IMO.

Colorado-Baltimore: So now Bud Norris with an offense is a -180 pitcher. Seriously don't think so, and honestly Colorado hits right handed pitching better than left handed pitching, has a DH in this game, and unless the Orioles pen gets back on track from the West Coast shellacking, the Rockies may be live here.

LA Syndicate

Top Plays

XNFL
Cowboys/Cardinals Over 41
Broncos +5.5
Rams/Packers Over 40.5

MLB
Giants
Mets
Tigers (RL)
Angels/Astros Over 8.5

Chicago Syndicate

Top Plays

MLB
Cardinals
Braves
Twins

XNFL
Bengals -2.5
Jets/Jaguars Under 39
Broncos +5.5

Joe Wiz NFL Saturday

Bonus Play Saturday NFL Jets/Jacksonville Under 39 1/2

Saturday's National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday's National League games:

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (+127, OFF)

Hot pitching stat: Cubs left-hander Travis Wood is tied for second in the National League with 20 quality starts - including two against the Cardinals earlier in the season.

Cold batting stat: Chicago 1B Anthony Rizzo has just one home run since Aug. 1, and hasn't registered a multi-hit game in that span.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Cardinals are 1-7 in their last eight games against a left-handed starter.


Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates (-158, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Pirates right-hander Jeff Locke has surrendered more than three runs in a game just once since April 18.

Hot batting stat: Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt has eight home runs and 16 RBIs in 25 games since the All-Star break.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-2-1 in the Diamondbacks' last ten road games.


Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies (+185, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw is 0-4 with a 4.31 ERA in eight career starts against Philadelphia; the Phillies and Atlanta Braves are the only NL teams he has never beaten.

Hot batting stat: Los Angeles 1B Adrian Gonzalez has torched the Phillies in his career, batting .312 with 14 home runs in 44 games.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 3 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-0 in the Dodgers' last six Saturday games.


San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins (+123, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Marlins right-hander Henderson Alvarez is 2-1 with a 2.77 ERA and has yet to surrender a home run in 26 innings at home.

Cold batting stat: Miami rookie OF Jake Marisnick is batting .200 with 21 strikeouts over his first 75 major-league at-bats.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-90s, but with a 30 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm, the roof at Marlins Park may be closed. Wind will blow in from center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Giants are 1-11 in their last 12 road games against an opponent with a losing home record.


Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (-118, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg has recorded quality starts in three of his four meetings with the Braves this season, though he has just two losses and a no-decision to show for them.

Cold batting stat: Washington 1B Adam LaRoche, drafted by Atlanta in 2000, is hitting just .189 in 227 career at-bats against the Braves.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with a 70 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow from right to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Atlanta is 10-1 in left-hander Mike Minor's last 11 Saturday starts.


Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (+126, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Cincinnati right-hander Mat Latos is 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA since the All-Star break, and is coming off back-to-back scoreless efforts against the Oakland Athletics and Chicago Cubs.

Cold batting stat: Reds 2B Brandon Phillips is batting just .232 since the break, while his .633 second-half OPS is 100 points lower than what he posted in the first half.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s under sunny skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 19-6-2 in the last 27 meetings.


New York Mets at San Diego Padres (-124, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Padres right-hander Edinson Volquez was torched by the Mets in his first start of the season, surrendering six runs on six hits in three innings back on April 1.

Cold batting stat: San Diego hits just .237 as a team at home, good for 27th in the majors.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-0 in the Mets' last seven games against teams with losing records.


** Odds, stats, probable starters and weather forecast as of 10:41 p.m. ET Friday.

Saturday's American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday's American League games:


New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-132, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda threw seven sensational innings in a win over the Red Sox on July 20, and has strung together five consecutive quality starts overall.

Cold batting stat: New York OF Vernon Wells is hitting just .208 in 221 at-bats against right-handers.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Yankees are 18-4 in Kuroda's last 22 starts when working on four days' rest.


Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-203, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Royals right-hander Wade Davis is allowing opponents to hit .315 against him - the second-highest mark among American League pitchers with at least 20 starts.

Cold batting stat: Tigers 1B Prince Fielder is hitting just .235 with one home run in 34 at-bats against the Royals this season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 17-5-3 in the Royals' last 25 games.


Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (-147, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Tampa Bay right-hander Roberto Hernandez has allowed three runs or more in 11 of his last 12 starts - including a June 26 loss to Toronto.

Hot batting stat: Blue Jays 3B Brett Lawrie leads the American League with 24 hits in August.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: The under is 7-0 in Tampa Bay's last seven Saturday games.


Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (+108, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Twins right-hander Andrew Albers is coming off a complete-game two-hit shutout in his second major-league start and has yet to surrender a run in 17 1/3 innings.

Hot batting stat: Minnesota leads the majors with 23 home runs in August.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: Minnesota is 1-7 in its last eight games with umpire Todd Tichenor behind home plate.


Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (-110, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez is 0-2 with a 4.66 ERA in two starts against the Rangers in 2013.

Cold batting stat: Seattle 2B Dustin Ackley has just one homer in 264 at-bats this season after going deep 12 times in 2012.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Seattle has won 10 of its last 11 games against American League West opponents.


Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels (-183, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Astros left-hander Dallas Keuchel has surrendered 16 runs over his last 18 1/3 innings, surrendering three home runs in that span.

Hot batting stat: Angels OF Mike Trout is hitting .367 with six home runs and six steals in 90 at-bats since the All-Star break.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Los Angeles is 6-14 in its last 20 games against teams with winning percentages below .400.


Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics (-135, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Indians RH Ubaldo Jimenez leads the American League with 65 walks, and has issued at least two free passes in 15 of his last 16 starts.

Hot batting stat: Athletics OF Josh Reddick is batting just .187 with two homers in 155 at-bats at home.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 12-3-1 in Oakland's last 16 games against an AL Central opponent.


Interleague

Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles (-181, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Orioles right-hander Bud Norris has allowed eight earned runs over his last four starts, a span of 23 1/3 innings.

Cold batting stat: Baltimore 3B Manny Machado is batting .233 with three doubles in 103 at-bats since the All-Star break; Machado hit .310 and had 39 doubles in the first half.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with overcast skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 10 mph.

Key betting note: The Orioles are 1-5 in their last six versus the National League West.


** Odds, stats, probable starters and weather forecast as of 10:56 p.m. ET Friday.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Red Sox on Friday and likes the Yankees on Saturday.

The deficit is 1460 sirignanos.