Service Plays Wednesday 8/21/13

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GL!

Premier League betting: Wednesday's EPL cheat sheet

Aston Villa, fresh off a shocking upset of Arsenal on the weekend, face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in a midweek matchup in the Barclay's Premier League. Here is your quick cheat sheet.

Chelsea v Aston Villa (-350, +450, +900)

Why bet Aston Villa: The Villains will be on Cloud Nine after defeating Arsenal 3-1 at the Emirates to open their season. The front three of Gabriel Agbonlahor, Andreas Weimann and goalscoring-machine Christian Benteke were all excellent against the London club and not intimidated in the slightest. Benteke netted a pair in leading the Villains to three points and will need to be in top form again if Villa is to get anything from Stamford Bridge.

Key players doubtful: Charles N'Zogbia, Nathan Baker, Chris Herd, Yacouba Sylla

Why bet Chelsea: Chelsea were excellent against Hull and even if Jose Mourinho has to do some shuffling of his lineup (possible rest for Frank Lampard, Fernando Torres, Ramires), Chelsea is deep enough to field a quality XI. Despite a fierce start against Hull, they could have gone on to score more, but Mourinho likes to sit back when he has the lead and the 2013-14 opener was not a departure from the norm. You might remember this fixture from last year. Chelsea won 8-0 on Dec. 23.

Key players doubtful: David Luiz

Key betting note: There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Villa's 12 previous away games in the Premier League.

2012-13 fixture result: Chelsea 8, Aston Villa 0

Scottish soccer player faces match-betting charges

Rangers midfielder Ian Black faces a hearing for allegations of betting on matches, reports the BBC.

Black is accused of betting against his "then registered club" to not win on three different occasions from March 4, 2006 to July 28 2013.

He is also being charged with betting on his club in an additional 10 matches and betting on 147 other soccer matches.

Black's hearing is set for Sept. 12.

Wednesday's American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Wednesday's American League games:

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics

Hot pitching stat: Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma bounced back nicely from a rough outing against Milwaukee, limiting the Texas Rangers to one run over seven innings in his last start.

Hot batting stat: Athletics OF Yoenis Cespedes is one of the few major-leaguers to have solved Iwakuma, hitting 6-for-15 with three home runs against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s under sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Athletics are 17-4 in right-hander A.J. Griffin's last 21 home starts.


Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

Cold pitching stat: Blue Jays knuckleballer R.A. Dickey has coughed up 27 home runs in 2013 - three more than he surrendered all of last season.

Hot batting stat: Toronto RF Jose Bautista is 10-for-31 lifetime against Yankees starter Andy Pettitte, with five walks, three home runs and 7 RBIs.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting stat: The under is 4-0 in Dickey's last four starts on grass.


Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels

Hot pitching stat: Indians right-hander Justin Masterson is 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA in eight starts and three relief appearances against Los Angeles.

Cold batting stat: Cleveland hitters have just four hits in 24 combined at-bats against Angels starter Jerome Williams.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting stat: Los Angeles has won just three of Williams' last 16 starts against teams with winning records.


Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles

Hot pitching stat: Tampa Bay right-hander Jeremy Hellickson is 8-3 with a 3.09 ERA in 15 career appearances against Baltimore.

Cold batting stat: Orioles C Matt Wieters is just .222 with zero home runs in 27 lifetime at-bats versus Hellickson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s under mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The road team is 11-1 in umpire Joe West's last 12 Wednesday games behind home plate.


Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

Hot pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez has been red-hot at home, going 7-2 with a 1.98 ERA in nine starts at Comerica Park.

Cold batting stat: Twins 3B Trevor Plouffe is the only member of the Minnesota roster to have hit a home run against Sanchez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 4-0-1 in the Tigers' last five home games.


Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Hot pitching stat: Rangers left-hander Derek Holland has surrendered just three runs over his last three starts, though he only has one win to show for it.

Hot batting stat: Texas became the first team in 2013 to score double-digit runs in an inning, erupting for 11 in the third frame of a 16-5 win over the Astros in Monday's series opener.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-90s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The Rangers have won six straight games against a left-handed starter.


Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Cold pitching stat: Royals right-hander Jeremy Guthrie has dropped two straight decisions since tossing a complete-game shutout against Minnesota, allowing nine runs on 23 hits over 13 innings in that stretch.

Cold batting stat: White Sox DH Adam Dunn is hitting .130 with 11 strikeouts in 23 career at-bats against Guthrie.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Road teams are 5-0 in umpire Tom Hallion's last five games behind home plate.


** Odds, probable starters and weather forecast as of 6:30 p.m. ET.

Wednesday's National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Wednesday's National League games:

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

Hot pitching stat: Braves lefthander Alex Wood is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in four starts since his last encounter against the Mets, during which he was tagged for four runs on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings.

Hot hitting stat: Mets outfielder Marlon Byrd went 3-for-4 with a pair of RBIs against Wood in New York's 7-4 win over the Braves back on July 25.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-90s under clear skies. Wind will blow out toward center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: New York is 1-6 in right-hander Jonathan Niese's last seven home starts.


St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

Cold pitching stat: Cardinals right-hander Jake Westbrook has lost four straight decisions, surrendering 25 runs while walking 15 over 21 1/3 innings over that stretch.

Hot hitting stat: St. Louis OF Matt Holiday is 5-for-10 with a home run and three walks in his career against Brewers starter Tom Gorzelanny.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 8-2 in Westbrook's last 10 road starts.


Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres

Hot pitching stat: Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole is 2-1 with a 2.66 ERA in three road starts.

Hot batting stat: Pittsburgh 2B Neil Walker is 6-for-12 with a pair of home runs and 7 RBIs lifetime against Padres right-hander Ian Kennedy.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The Pirates have won 14 of their last 17 Wednesday games.


Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies

Cold pitching stat: Rockies right-hander Juan Nicasio was shelled in his only previous outing against the Phillies, allowing five runs on seven hits over 5 2/3 innings back on June 14.

Hot batting stat: Colorado OF Michael Cuddyer is a .306 career hitter with three home runs and eight RBIs in 36 at-bats against Phillies starter Cliff Lee.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 12-2 in Lee's last 14 starts taking place in the third game of a series.


Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds

Hot pitching stat: Cincinnati right-hander Mike Leake limited Arizona to a pair of runs over eight innings in their last encounter June 22.

Hot batting stat: Arizona hitters are a combined .297 with three home runs in 74 at-bats against Leake.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with a 55 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow from right to left field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 6-1-1 in umpire Chris Conroy's last eight games behind home plate.


Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke hasn't allowed a run in his past two starts, and is 5-1 with a 1.28 ERA in his previous eight outings.

Hot batting stat: Los Angeles OF Andre Ethier has a single and a home run in his only two career at-bats against Miami starter Nate Eovaldi.

Weather: With a 40 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm, the roof at Marlins Park may be closed. Temperatures will be in the high-80s with wind blowing from right to left field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-0-1 in Greinke's last eight starts.


Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs

Hot pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Ross Ohlendorf is 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA in six career starts against the Cubs.

Cold batting stat: SS Starlin Castro has just three hits in 15 at-bats against Ohlendorf, though two of them are triples.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Washington has won seven straight games with umpire Mike Winters behind home plate.


Interleague

Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants

Cold pitching stat: Giants right-hander Chad Gaudin had his worst start of the season last time out, charged with eight runs on 11 hits in four innings against Miami.

Hot batting stat: Red Sox C Mike Napoli has dominated the head-to-head matchup with Gaudin, going 7-for-16 with two doubles, three homers and seven RBIs.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 4-1 in Doubront's last five interleague starts.


** Odds, probable starters and weather forecast as of 10:30 a.m. ET.

MLB Top 3: Hot 'over' pitchers on the mound Wednesday

Looking play some totals? Wednesday's Major League Baseball action features a trio of pitchers that have trended toward scorelines finishing over the total.

Here is a look at three pitchers to consider if you're looking to play totals.

Jake Westbrook, St. Louis Cardinals (7-8, 4.35 ERA)

Westbrook has been one of the top 'over' pitchers in the majors to date, with the 'over' going 13-5 in his 18 starts. The veteran right-hander has fallen on hard times of late, allowing 20 earned runs over his previous 16 1/3 innings.

The Cardinals take on the Brewers in Milwaukee on Wednesday.

Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds (10-5, 3.01 ERA)

Leake has seen the 'over' in four of his last six starts, and the 'over' is 7-4 in his 11 home starts. The 26-year-old is winless in his last four starts and surrendered four runs on nine hits over five innings in his last appearance.

The Reds entertain the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday.

Juan Nicasio, Colorado Rockies (7-6, 4.94 ERA)

When Nicasio pitches, runs are often plentiful. The 27-year-old right-hander has hit the 'over' in 15 of his 22 starts, and has had 12 'overs' compared to just three 'unders' when pitching at night.

The Rockies visit the Phillies in Philadelphia on Wednesday night.

Dave Essler's MLB Wednesday Thoughts

Atlanta-Mets: Obvious inclination here is to take Wood, but the Mets are actually three games over .500 against left-handed starters. Niese has had his better days, and was hit pretty hard by Atlanta not long ago. However, he is the type of pitcher that can give a team like Atlanta problems. Since it's a day game, people will be resting, and we do like those to typically stay under more often than not, meaning if the Braves are too big of a favorite here there is probably a way I could take the Mets RL.

St. Louis-Milwaukee: Again, a day game and I'd be surprised if Yadier didn't rest. He's caught a ton, and with Cruz out figures to catch plenty more. That could give the Brewers a chance at being able to run, provided they get on base. With Westbrook being one of the best ground ball pitchers in the majors, and some resting players, I do lean under here. Cardinals have had issue w/LHP's this season, so again, I could see taking Gorzellany here, perhaps even the ML.

Padres-Pirates: Another day game, and the Pirates really can't afford to be resting anyone here. They've got four game in SF this weekend before going home to play a ton of division games against the Brewers and the Cardinals. Since the Padres haven't seen Cole, I would have to think the Pirates are the right side, regardless of who Pittsburgh rests. Only thing is if they use much bullpen w/AJ, because Cole doesn't usually pitch too deep. Pirates have feasted on Kennedy in the past, and as much as I like underdogs, this one doesn't get there for me.

Rockies-Phillies: Colorado has inexplicably struggled against lefties this season, and they're headed to Miami for a series and THEN to San Francisco, so they're a long way from home. Have to think that the Phillies and Lee take care of business here. They kicked the shit out of Nicasion in June, and I think they do it again. I haven't checked the weather, but given that the Rockies have had some individual successes against Lee, I lean to the over here a little.

Arizona-Reds: Honestly, there was a time when I'd fade Leake like clockwork, and may do it again here. His few good outings (as opposed to A Few Good Men) were against the Padres (twice) and the Giants, so I simply cannot say he's back on the list. But, McCarthy has simply been terrible most of the season, and allowing .300+ BAA on the road. With that in mind, the polygonic over is perhaps the play in this game, although the number might be higher than I'd like. Leake can hit, which is always why we look there when he pitches.

Dodgers-Fish: I tried, as did many people, to fade Zach last week against the Phillies and that didn't work out too well. I'm still mindful of his road stats, and that was indeed in the first game the Phillies had a new manager. Perhaps there is a way, given that this well should be a low scoring game, that once again we could make a case for the Miami RL. I do think this one stays under, giving more value to potentially the home team w/the last at bat. Eovaldi was hammered by the Giants, but he's simply not that bad. The Dodgers have seen him, but still, I am not laying that kind of chalk on the road because I like Miami's uniforms much better than the Dodgers'.

Washington-Cubs: I guess this would be choosing the lesser of two evils here. Ohlendorf, or Arrieta. I suppose that Arrieta has the most upside, and obviously the Nationals have simply quit, and they've got a weekend series at Kansas City they're certainly not looking forward to (although w/a DH we could bet on them) so I'd have to take the Cubbies here.

Seattle-Oakland: Day game with typically a wind blowing out this time of year, which might mean I would look at this over. It's sure to be a small number, and day games tend to be lower scoring, but it's not like these two teams haven't seen these two pitchers plenty. Iwakuma's stock is clearly high after beating the Rangers in Arlington, and actually pitching well enough to win in Boston. I do keep coming back to the fact that Oakland has a lot to play for and Seattle doesn't. We'll see for sure what lineups are out.

Yankees-Jays: As much as I think taking the Jays against LHP can be suicidal, and has been this season, Pettitte's one or two decent outings don't make me want to bet on him. And we do like taking Dickey outdoors where the wind can help his knuckleball (a lot) so I'd have to lean Jays here, but think this game could be lower scoring than perhaps most people think.

Rays-Orioles: Chen's been hot and Hellickson has not, but is it ever that easy? Sometimes it is, but we do like backing the best hitting team (Tampa Bay) more against lefties than not, and of course we like backing Baltimore against RHP, and even Adam Jones has hit Hellickson well. It's definitely a weather pattern for runs to be scored, but the Rays pen has apparently (recently) straightened out their issues, so I like Tampa Bay to steal this one, and perhaps over.

Twins-Tigers: Does anyone outside of Michigan care, even people in Minnesota? Cabrrera is only 11-22 off of Corriea, so I suppose there's hope. However, Sanchez can have some mental lapses, but he did the last time these two teams met, so I suspect he remembers that one.

Clevleland-Angels: I suppose the inclination here is to take Masterson (who lost to Oakland) over Williams, but perhaps it's not that simple. We like backing Cleveland more against RHP's and the Angels have historically done well against Masterson. Williams just gives up too many and has no bullpen whatsoever, so I would have to look at the over in this one, if I could bring myself to do much of anything.

Houston-Texas: I actually do like backing the Astros against lefties better than righties, and Houston was able to get three off him in a recent meeting at Minute Maid, so it's certainly not out of the question here. Yes, Bedard's been terrible and Texas has had great success off of him, but he was better against them last time out. The Rangers head out on a six game road trip, but against Chicago and Seattle before coming home to face the Twins, so clear advantage Rangers for the AL West, since Oakland travels to Baltimore (still playing) and Detroit (duh) next two series'. With that in mind it might be time to catch Texas to win the AL West.

White Sox-Royals: Two teams I simply cannot keep up with anymore. Guthrie has regressed in his last two starts against good teams (Boston and Detroit) and allowed 10+ hits in both starts. The sad thing is that he's owned the White Sox lineup. Rienzo can be a solid DP-type pitcher and is someone the Royals haven't seen, and honestly the White Sox bullpen has been quite solid lately. With all that in mind, my initial lean is to the under, if anything.

Boston-Giants: Well, I was wrong about Boston on Monday since Lester made the Giants look like, well, the Giants. Now they face another LHP so the inclination would be to take Doubront, but he's been far worse on the road than at home. Gaudin had been in ATM/beastmode until Miami kicked the shit out of him, which either gives him value here, or make Boston the easy play, since they are still trying to play into October, and since they've (Boston) seen more of Gaudin than the Giants have of Doubront, I guess Boston would be a play. I do like the under, as I usually do in games where AL teams can't use the DH.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Yankees (Game 1) on Tuesday and likes the Braves on Wednesday.

The deficit is 1464 sirignanos.

TMC Sports Advisors 0821

EARLY BET


Cardenales de San Luis/Cerveceros de Milwaukee Over 8.5

Mon.3-1
Tue.4-0

Suerte

The Broker

Mitch Wilson

Dog of the day: Astros

(8-4 since posted here)

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Tampa Bay at Baltimore[/h] The Orioles look to salvage a game in the series and build on their 5-0 record in Wei-Yin Chen's last 5 starts against a team with a winning record. Baltimore is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]San Antonio at Indiana[/h] The Fever look to take advantage of a San Antonio team that is coming off an 88-82 win over Phoenix and is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games following an ATS victory. Indiana is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1082-814 (57 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner WED: Blue Jays w/ Dickey

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Wednesday

Cards/Brewers over 8.5

Braves -145

Monday he was 1-3 not 3-1

The Broker said:

EARLY BET


Cardenales de San Luis/Cerveceros de Milwaukee Over 8.5

Mon.3-1
Tue.4-0

Suerte

The Broker

Click to expand...

Cappers Access

Cardinals -130
Rays +125

Lumper said:

Monday he was 1-3 not 3-1

Click to expand...

Absolutly right

Sun. 3-1
Mon. 1-3
Tue. 4-0

Sorry

The Broker