Unexpected value on Thompson this weekend (+400)

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On the 24th, Germany hosts Bulgarian Kubrat Pulev (17-0-9KO's) against Washington DC fighter Tony Thompson (38-3-26KO's).
Currently, the Ring ratings list Pulev as the #4 contender among the big men, while Thompson occupies the #9 spot.
Odds on this fight seem skewed: Thompson lost a 4-rounder in the year 2000--since then he has only twice failed to carry the day, both times to Wladimir Klitschko.
Hot off back-to-back KO's over David Price in England, Thompson is comfortable going to the other fellow's backyard to secure a win, and doesn't see this encounter going past 8 rounds.
Fundamentally skilled, Pulev pulls his hands back low after punching, a trait Thompson exploited against last year's prospect of the year, Price.
Though there may be a chance that Thompson can only win by KO in Germany, odds placing him at +400 make for an enticing offer to short-end bettors, as we might be facing an even money proposition were the bout to take place in the States.
Should Pulev show himself worthy of the overwhelming odds backing him (-550 in some places), he will immediately emerge as a top contender in the division.
 

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